El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s run has the weakest SPV period starting the earliest in many runs and that period starts only 14 days out, the earliest in any run yet. I count ~17% of members with a major SSW just from 12/28 through 1/2, alone! Moving up like that is a pretty big deal. It earlier looked like @40/70 Benchmarkgetting a major SSW in the first of his two weeks was looking very highly unlikely, but this is telling me the latter half of his first week is now back to being very much in the game:
 

First time the mean crossed the lower red line so convincingly. Giddy up!

[40/70 Benchmark]

No changes.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does

Yeah, very strong El Niño effects combined with La Niña-like MJO 4-7 phases. This was the first time Australia had such an early tropical cyclone during an El Niño year. So some of the warmest SSTs on record near Australia during an El Niño is why the RONI is lower than usual. Doesn’t take anything away from the actual strength of the El Niño. But gives it some Nina-like flavor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/australia/cyclone-jasper-queensland-australia.html

This is the first time since records began in the 70s that a tropical cyclone arriving has so early in the season in an El Niño year, which is characterized by hot and dry conditions, Laura Boekel, a senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

Australia’s tropical cyclone seasons usually run from November to April in the country’s north, but in El Niño years, the season doesn’t usually start until January or February, she added.

 

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

GEFS 10mb Anomaly

 

GEFS control 10mb anomaly 

 

 

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

GEFS 10mb Anomaly

 

GEFS control 10mb anomaly 

 

 

 

PV will get pushed to the other side of the globe yet again

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, very strong El Niño effects combined with La Niña-like MJO 4-7 phases. This was the first time Australia had such an early tropical cyclone during an El Niño year. So some of the warmest SSTs on record near Australia during an El Niño is why the RONI is lower than usual. Doesn’t take anything away from the actual strength of the El Niño. But gives it some Nina-like flavor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/world/australia/cyclone-jasper-queensland-australia.html

This is the first time since records began in the 70s that a tropical cyclone arriving has so early in the season in an El Niño year, which is characterized by hot and dry conditions, Laura Boekel, a senior meteorologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

Australia’s tropical cyclone seasons usually run from November to April in the country’s north, but in El Niño years, the season doesn’t usually start until January or February, she added.

 

 

 

 

I know we have exchanged thoughts about this before, but my hope if that it also entails a more active N stream in addition to mild, Maritime interludes.

We may disagree on this, but I don't think its fair to say that it takes nothing away from the strength of el Nino. Perhaps not as much as implied, but when you lessen the Pacific dipole, it doesn't make sense to have every bit as pervasive an ENSO event. Is it as weak as the MEI would imply? Of course not, but I'm not sure how you give ENSO an opposite phase "flavor " and not render it a less proficient a driver than implied by ONI. Its a form of deconstructive interference that partially stifles hemispheric expression. I actually feel as though the RONI represents a sound compromise between the ONI and MEI, which is probably biased low by one determinant.

[Volcanic Winter]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know we have exchanged thoughts about this before, but my hope if that it also entails a more active N stream in addition to mild, Maritime interludes.

We may disagree on this, but I don't think its fair to say that it takes nothing away from the strength of el Nino. Perhaps not as much as implied, but when you lessen the Pacific dipole, it doesn't make sense to have every bit as pervasive an ENSO event. Is it as weak as the MEI would imply? Of course not.

How are you feeling about your megalopolis snow forecast at this point? Zero implication in me asking, I’m merely curious. If you could tweak any of the ranges, what adjustments would you make? Or would you stay locked in with the original forecast? 

Thanks Ray. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

How are you feeling about your megalopolis snow forecast at this point? Zero implication in me asking, I’m merely curious. If you could tweak any of the ranges, what adjustments would you make? Or would you stay locked in with the original forecast? 

Thanks Ray. 

Locked in. Zero reservations. And yes.....it took me until January to start to know I was in trouble last year, so that doesn't necessarily mean I am going to be right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PV will get pushed to the other side of the globe yet again

Yea...its not going to be frigid, but should be cold enough at peak climo.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know we have exchanged thoughts about this before, but my hope if that it also entails a more active N stream in addition to mild, Maritime interludes.

We may disagree on this, but I don't think its fair to say that it takes nothing away from the strength of el Nino. Perhaps not as much as implied, but when you lessen the Pacific dipole, it doesn't make sense to have every bit as pervasive an ENSO event. Is it as weak as the MEI would imply? Of course not, but I'm not sure how you give ENSO an opposite phase "flavor " and not render it a less proficient a driver than implied by ONI.

Not taking away from the El Niño meant the metrics that snowman was mentioning for this El Niño are all solidly El Niño. But the weaker MEI is coming as a result of the WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 phases. So these warmer MJO 4-7 phases make this December in North America much warmer than we would expect just from an El Niño alone. The super El Niño warmth in December 2015 was enhanced by the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño. And the North American warmth in 2021 was also driven by warmer MJO interaction with La Niña.

 

 

[stadiumwave]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PV will get pushed to the other side of the globe yet again

 

But at that point it's already weak & decoupled from the troposphere and it really doesn't matter. Opens the door for increase HL blocking.

Also that is classic precursor to a full-blown SSW which is defined by a reversing of the winds. Smart money is it's going to occur.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not taking away from the El Niño meant the metrics that snowman was mentioning for this El Niño are all solidly El Niño. But the weaker MEI is coming as a result of the WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 phases. So these warmer MJO 4-7 phases make this December in North America much warmer than we would expect just from an El Niño alone. The super El Niño warmth in December 2015 was enhanced by the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño. And the North American warmth in 2021 was also warmer MJO interaction with La Niña.

 

 

That is fair and I see what you mean there....I agree about increased Maritime forcing relative to normal for el Nino, as I also touched on that. But I also believe that its going to lead to longer periods of dateline forcing in lieu having a purely canonical response in the seasonal mean. This is why I specifically stated that I expect volatility this year and it won't a be cold season prime for snowpack retention. The slightly weaker event is also resulting in a cooler, albeit still warm December than 2015, which I think will also help in January and February relative to that season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But at that point it's already weak & decoupled from the troposphere and it really doesn't matter. Opens the door for increase HL blocking.

Also that is classic precursor to a full-blown SSW which is defined by a reversing of the winds. Smart money is it's going to occur.

I don't think it will be a cold as if it were to displace on our side of the hemisphere, but the blocking should still have an impact. I agree...I think the coldest periods will be in February when we have periods of EPO/PNA ridging.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting that I see 2014 also in that list of warmest Decembers, so while I certainly don't expect a repeat of that, a warm December is not prohibitive of decent snowfall season.

2006 and 1968 were also on my list....1958 was, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is fair and I see what you mean there....I agree about increased Maritime forcing relative to normal for el Nino, as I also touched on that. But I also believe that its going to lead to longer periods of dateline forcing in lieu having a purely canonical response in the seasonal mean. This is why I specifically stated that I expect volatility this year and it won't a be cold season prime for snowpack retention. The slightly weaker event is also resulting in a cooler, albeit still warm December than 2015, which I think will also help in January and February relative to that season.

I also feel like the "weaker" expression will also allow for a less prominent Aleutian low displaced further to the west during those periods of dateline forcing, as opposed to a season like 1998, that has the other worldly low tucked against the coast and overwhelming the colder MJO phases with that transcendent PAC jet. This is the benefit of having the Walker cell displaced to the west....we have seen the negative of it in Maritime forcing and we will see the benefit later this season.

Stronger, Canonical el Nino Hadley Cell Configuration

 

The Modoki el Nino, on the other hand,  has a diametrically opposed circulation pattern that weakens said subtropical Pacific jet, which in turn diminishes the Atlantic jet and fosters the development of a cyclonic circulation that sustains negative NAO episodes via said wind-evaporation-SST feedback. This often works in conjunction with western ridging due to the position of the Hadley Cell over the central Pacific.

 

Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration

[40/70 Benchmark]

2006 is another great example of el Nino having a la Nina flavor, but the difference being the polar domain that year....look how far west that forcing was. It is pretty high on my list of analogs, save for the polar domain. Even that season had a nice stretch in February and March.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

My point is that its ill advised to just consider the Maritime implication of having forcing displaced so far west, while ignoring what that means with respect to the Hadley Cell later in the season...especially when unwilling to concede that the west PAC warm pool does in fact limit the hemispheric expression of el Nino relative to the ONI. That is inconsistent...you could get away with it in 1994 and 2006 because we had a different solar situation and hence a drastically different polar evolution.

I am confident that absolutely will not work this season when all is said and done.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My point is that its ill advised to just consider the Maritime implication of having forcing displaced so far west, while ignoring what that means with respect to the Hadley Cell later in the season...especially when unwilling to concede that the west PAC warm pool does in fact limit the hemispheric expression of el Nino. That is inconsistent...you could get away with it in 1994 and 2006 because we had a different solar situation and hence a drastically different polar evolution.

I am confident that absolutely will not work this season when all is said and done.

I would prefer the term competing influences rather than limited response. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would prefer the term competing influences rather than limited response. 

Yea, that's fine....semantics, I guess.....if you would rather view it as the prism between the ONI and MEI/RONI being reflective of competing forces, rather than a limited warm ENSO expression....I can see that.

[Terpeast]

Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.

Is it me, or have they adjusted these? I feel like SO was 0.3 and ON was 0.6, whereas now they are 0.4 and 0.8, respectively.

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it me, or have they adjusted these? I feel like SO was 0.3 and ON was 0.6, whereas now they are 0.4 and 0.8, respectively.

I remember that. Maybe they do this retroactively

[stadiumwave]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it me, or have they adjusted these? I feel like SO was 0.3 and ON was 0.6, whereas now they are 0.4 and 0.8, respectively.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Makes a bit more sense, as it has always seemed too low.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares.

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.

 That’s similar to what I found for the DJ MEI range most correlated to cool to cold E US winters. I don’t want the MEI to be either too strong or too weak. The MEI sweet spot seems to be in the general vicinity of +1.0 for DJ. Thus, I see this adjustment up of ON to +0.8 as good news as far as better prospects for E US BN temps are concerned. Looking at the 25 El Niños since 1951-2, the average change from the ON MEI to DJ MEI was near 0. For 85-90% of these, the absolute value of the change was 0.3 or less. So, that tells me that there’s a high chance that DJ will end up between +0.5 and +1.1.
 
 The 10 coldest winters (at least mid-Atlantic south) averaged between +0.9 and +1.0 in ON. The ON for both 1977 and 2002 was the same as 2023’s +0.8. 1963’s ON was very close with it at +0.9.

 OTOH, sometimes with similar ON MEI, the winter turned out to be mild like 1951-2 (though its DJ fell to only +0.3) and 1994-5. Regardless, for the best shot at cold, the +0.8 of ON is good to see.

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

We've known in would be top 5 in ONI since like May.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

But likely only 8th warmest RONI peak and 9th or 10th warmest MEI peak at best (could turn out to be as low as 15th) out of 25 El Niños since 1950 when all is said and done. So, based on RONI and MEI, whereas we’re in a robust El Niño, it isn’t impressive historically.

 Meanwhile, OISST 3.4 jumped back up to +2.02 from +1.92 on cyclonicwx. It keeps going up and down in this area without any real direction of late.

[snowman19]