El Nino 2023-2024

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

Yeah really. Forcing from one side to the other. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

OISST finally updated on Cyclonicwx last night…stagnated at +2.0C in 3.4 still

 

1. That’s about to drop to ~+1.9 based on WCS dropping from +2.0 to +1.89 in today’s update.

2. The WCS PDO has been falling sharply in recent days and is -1.35 in the latest, the lowest in two months (NOAA may be back down to ~~-2):

[snowman19]

1. That’s about to drop to ~+1.9 based on WCS dropping to +1.89 in today’s update.
2. The PDO has been falling sharply in recent days and is -1.35 in the latest, the lowest in two months:

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first (strong -PDO) for a Nino this strong

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first for a Nino this strong

Yeah, this trend isn’t at all what I wanted to see. This means that the NOAA PDO is quite possibly back down to ~~-2.0. My hope is still for a sharp enough reversal soon to allow for a JF PDO to average >-1 in the NOAA table, a doable but unfortunately very tall task as of now.

 But regardless of the PDO, the good news from an E US cold lovers standpoint is always having the major SSW wild card possibility to shake things up drastically via -AO/-NAO blocking in Jan and/or Feb as it often means a major atmospheric reset. All major SSWs since 1958 during El Niño have had a  3+ week long period of cold domination after 1-3 weeks following them as I’ve posted about. 60% of El Niño winters have had a major SSW. Also, QBO E have had more than QBO W. The best shot at a major SSW during QBO E per analogs is very late Dec to early Jan as per@40/70 Benchmarkand SSW history. If we can get that combined with weak MJO, I’d be pretty excited about potential for E US cold in a good portion of Jan and/or Feb.

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so sick of the PV kicking to the other side of the globe....can't we get it to near Hudson Bay just once...ugh.

I mean...

 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What mechanism is causing that? (Does it have to do with things just being more difficult overall?)

It is actually a fairly typical Wave 1 response on the SPV typically you have two location of ridging (AK/ Europe) and two locations of troughing in a split  (Canada/ Russia Siberia region) with displacements you typically get a ridging pattern like we see near Alaska sometimes we get an erroneous one like last winter across Europe to northern Asia.

Last year was well connected to the 500mb pattern.

[so_whats_happening]

Btw SOI has been rather positive over the last 2 weeks. 30 day is now above -4 and 90 day is about -8.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I mean...

 

It is actually a fairly typical Wave 1 response on the SPV typically you have two location of ridging (AK/ Europe) and two locations of troughing in a split  (Canada/ Russia Siberia region) with displacements you typically get a ridging pattern like we see near Alaska sometimes we get an erroneous one like last winter across Europe to northern Asia.

Last year was well connected to the 500mb pattern.

Yea, the one time it did end up this side it robbed us of the xmas blizzard by phasing in the west. 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are about as weak as any run yet for the last few days of Dec/early Jan. Total major SSWs are ~~50%. The highest concentration of major SSWs occur Jan 2-9 (~25% of members), which is supported by E QBO climo. (The extreme SSWs throughout Jan increased with ~17% total sub -15, ~15% sub -20, 5% sub -25, and 2% sub -30.):
 

10 mb temp anoms/hts 1/1-8:

 

Also, Jan 8-15 cooled back almost to as cold as the run from 3 days ago. But no football spiking from me!

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

At this point a -PDO winter is all but guaranteed. A historic first (strong -PDO) for a Nino this strong

 

With a month long +PNA. So, who cares

[stadiumwave]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are about as weak as any run yet for the last few days of Dec/early Jan. Total major SSWs are ~~50%. The highest concentration of major SSWs occur Jan 2-9 (~25% of members), which is supported by E QBO climo. (The extreme SSWs throughout Jan increased with ~17% total sub -15, ~15% sub -20, 5% sub -25, and 2% sub -30.):
 

10 mb temp anoms 1/1-8:

 

Also, Jan 8-15 cooled back almost to as cold as the run from 3 days ago. But no football spiking from me!

 

Organic methods still looking good for cold that 2nd week. 

[thunderbolt]

https://x.com/chris88808568/status/1735098825801433259?s=42&t=9oYN55kJQkQ18l6qbtT9mw It’s over for those who are predicting a super El Niño

[GaWx]

Today’s 0Z extended GEFS mean, like recent runs, suggests a significant weakening of the SPV and warming of the Arctic in early Jan. But will there actually be a major SSW/reversal of 60N winds? That’s the big question:

[GaWx]

From Judah Cohen’s blog:

“A larger PV disruption is more likely in early January that has the potential to reverse the overall mild pattern for the NH to a much colder one.  Hard to provide details just yet and I expect a lot of volatility in the forecasts so buckle up.”

“It is of my opinion, much of the winter will likely hinge on the nature of this SSW that is predicted to begin the last week of December.”

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

————————-

Interesting update from Judah! Keep in mind that major SSWs are often though not always accompanied by mildness in the E US before, during, and afterward prior to it later getting colder as their influence moves down into the troposphere and often results in a -AO/-NAO to then dominate. It often takes 1-3 weeks (avg ~2 weeks) for them to get deep down into the troposphere. It can of course already be cold when they occur, but that would obviously be due to other factors like a favorable MJO, for example.

 

[raindancewx]

Precipitation pattern globally in November looks a bit like the MJO 5-6, but really more 6 or 6-7.  My view of the MJO is the dominant feature sets up in the middle of the warmest band of the ocean. The waters are not an indicator of the transversal. Just where the heat is in aggregate. Phase 8 is pretty tied to precipitation patterns in Brazil - so the opposite phase v. the eight on the map is a good indication it was more 6.

MJO isn't really the pattern driver anyway. To me it's like a dog on a leash. Everything else is the dog's human. The human has the dog on a leash, but at any given moment the dog can be left, right, ahead or behind the human. 

 

I had mentioned in my October Winter outlook that a blend of 1951, 2004, 2006 precipitation patterns in the Pacific looked a lot like the winter depiction on the Canadian. That held up fairly well in November, which is a good sign for the tropical precipitation verifying in phase 6-7 overall.

[bluewave]

While most of the MJO action in recent years has been focused on the warmer MJO 4-7 phases, we get an occasional colder month when the MJO and ENSO actually give us a decent winter pattern. The MJO and La Niña teamed up for the amplified phase 8 stall in January 2022. This was the 2nd snowiest January on record at Islip.

 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2011	34.4	0
2	2022	31.8	0
3	2015	30.2	0
4	1978	27.7	0
5	2014	25.2	0
6	2016	24.8	0
7	1965	24.6	0
8	2018	22.0	0
9	2005	21.5	0
10	1996	20.2	0

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

From Judah Cohen’s blog:

“A larger PV disruption is more likely in early January that has the potential to reverse the overall mild pattern for the NH to a much colder one.  Hard to provide details just yet and I expect a lot of volatility in the forecasts so buckle up.”

“It is of my opinion, much of the winter will likely hinge on the nature of this SSW that is predicted to begin the last week of December.”

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

————————-

Interesting update from Judah! Keep in mind that major SSWs are often though not always accompanied by mildness in the E US before, during, and afterward prior to it later getting colder as their influence moves down into the troposphere and often results in a -AO/-NAO to then dominate. It often takes 1-3 weeks (avg ~2 weeks) for them to get deep down into the troposphere. It can of course already be cold when they occur, but that would obviously be due to other factors like a favorable MJO, for example.

 

Yea, there should be another milder interlude in January before the meat of the season begins.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expected a good bit of phase 6 in December, as well as a brief period of PV flex before it takes a beating, so going pretty much as planned, so far....though as Raindance alluded to, it will definitely be warmer in the N plains than my composite had....tough to capture anomalies of that magnitude on a seasonal/monthly level. Don't get me wrong, I am sure there will some surprises, but no big deviations yet.

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While most of the MJO action in recent years has been focused on the warmer MJO 4-7 phases, we get an occasional colder month when the MJO and ENSO actually give us a decent winter pattern. The MJO and La Niña teamed up for the amplified phase 8 stall in January 2022. This was the 2nd snowiest January on record at Islip.

 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	2011	34.4	0
2	2022	31.8	0
3	2015	30.2	0
4	1978	27.7	0
5	2014	25.2	0
6	2016	24.8	0
7	1965	24.6	0
8	2018	22.0	0
9	2005	21.5	0
10	1996	20.2	0

 Note that the coldest and snowiest part of the month was Jan 15-31, when the MJO was weak (near or inside the circle). Jan 1-14 averaged near normal temps whereas Jan 15-31 averaged B to MB. This was similar to the case in the SE US, where Jan 1-14 averaged A with temps before being MB Jan 15-31 along with above average snow.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Note that the coldest and snowiest part of the month was Jan 15-31, when the MJO was weak (near or inside the circle). Jan 1-14 averaged near normal temps whereas Jan 15-31 averaged B to MB. This was similar to the case in the SE US, where Jan 1-14 averaged A with temps before being MB Jan 15-31 along with above average snow.

Yeah, the key is getting an amplified enough 8 in the first place and having the most favorable ENSO state for the given month.

 

Additionally, over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intense southeastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record.

 

The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation ...

 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the key is getting an amplified enough 8 in the first place and having the most favorable ENSO state for the given month.

 

Additionally, over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intense southeastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record.

 

The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation ...

 

 Regarding cold periods during DJF in the E US, a large portion of them occurred during weak MJO per this:

 

https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=honorscollege_daes

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the key is getting an amplified enough 8 in the first place and having the most favorable ENSO state for the given month.

 

Additionally, over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intense southeastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record.

 

The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation ...

 

What are your thoughts on January?

[GaWx]

On 12/12/2023 at 11:12 AM, GaWx said:

Wow, look at how high the CFS is now forecasting GLAAM to go (consistent with strong El Niño influence)! I don’t recall seeing it this high before. But to be fair I haven’t seen all that many of these charts before as I’m only now first following it regularly:

Whereas the CFS GLAAM forecast is still solidly positive, it has come down a good bit from what was forecasted two days earlier with +1+ instead of +2+ at early Jan peak

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR0ev45sXITT6nmnEbuxjxcgOe96DBIivUC-yID6B4lNvpJeGrjWMrdQe_8

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

 

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/december-2023-el-nino-update-adventure

[mitchnick]

Waiting for Larry's analysis of the Eps 10mb. I  have a hunch what he might say.

[snowman19]

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If this doesn’t scream “El Nino” then I don’t know what does
 

A megalopolis HECS screams El Niño. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Waiting for Larry's analysis of the Eps 10mb. I  have a hunch what he might say.

 Today’s run has the weakest SPV period starting the earliest in many runs and that period starts only 14 days out, the earliest in any run yet. I count ~17% of members with a major SSW just from 12/28 through 1/2, alone! Moving up like that is a pretty big deal. It earlier looked like @40/70 Benchmarkgetting a major SSW in the first of his two weeks was looking very highly unlikely, but this is telling me the latter half of his first week is now back to being very much in the game:
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Wow!! Looks like El Nino/-QBO combo crushed it again (the results since 1948 are better on both sides of the coin than theorized impact)