El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

 1. Today’s Euro Weeklies are still weak with the SPV in late Dec and especially early to mid Jan. The highest concentration of members with a major SSW is during Jan 1-12. Whereas the number of members with one dropped some (~~50% today vs ~~60%+ yest), the number of extreme SSW actually rose (~15% sub -15, 10% sub -20, 5% sub -25):

 

2. Today’s 1/8-15 warmed up a lot since yesterdays cold E US map.

[Allsnow]

Great call @bluewave

 

 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 1. Today’s Euro Weeklies are still weak with the SPV in late Dec and Jan. The highest concentration of members with a major SSW is Jan 1-12. Whereas the number of members with one dropped some (~~50% today vs ~~60%+ yest), the number of extreme SSW actually rose (~15% sub -15, 10% sub -20, 5% sub -25):

 

2. Today’s 1/8-15 warmed up a lot since yesterdays cold E US map.

First time the mean dropped below the bottom red line. Per the explanation on the link: " During a SSW event, the ensemble (blue) will be close to the lower (more negative) extreme of the model extended range climate (ER-M-climate)  (lower red line)."

Here's the link if you don't have it.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202312110000

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great call @bluewave

 

 

That's good. Gawx, I  believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's good. Gawx, I  believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east. 

Yeah, it's better for the MA/SE to have a weak MJO than a strong one in any phase. Even a strong 8 might not help us (1998 is a good example). With super warm 30c ssts east of the dateline, we might keep the MJO weak and hold it there for a while instead of it circling back to the warm phases too quickly

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That's good. Gawx, I  believe, did a post last week showing the MJO in the COD results in cold in the east. 

 Mitch, I didn’t say it that way, but you’ve got the general idea. A study was done showing that the vast majority of cold E US events in DJF were when the MJO was weak (near, on, or within COD) as per this:

 So, whereas I didn’t go as far as to say that weak MJO results in cold in the E US, I did say that the best chance by a good margin from an MJO perspective for it to be cold is if it is weak.  That’s what this chart shows. So, whereas it sometimes is mild even during weak MJO, it is difficult for it to be cold when the MJO is strong. So, as a cold lover, I always prefer weak MJO to dominate so as to maximize the chances for cold.

 Also, I earlier (independently of the study from which came that diagram because I hadn’t yet been made aware of it) posted 15 periods during El Niño that had weak MJO, mainly left side, that were cold dominated in the E US, especially SE.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Great call @bluewave

 

 

MJO in the circle and very weak overall. I think that bodes well for a back loaded Nino response if that maintains. 

I think raindancewx has the right idea which means things will be a lot better than last year.

[Daniel Boone]

Cohen has an update on the PV stretching. Odd behavior if correct. 

[griteater]

48% of GEFS Ext members with SSW in early Jan period on tonight's run.  Highest I've seen so far this winter for that product

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/strat/

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Cohen has an update on the PV stretching. Odd behavior if correct. 

 The strat stuff discussed by Cohen and others is so fascinating! To me, getting a major SSW resets the whole winter playing field. It is like getting a new QB and perhaps even more like getting a whole new team mid-game.
 
 Here’s something I found recently:

 

 In this, I noticed these things:

-QBO: E beat W by a large margin, 22 to 13

-QBO E: 14 displaced vs 8 split

-QBO W: 4 displaced vs 9 split

-QBO E El Niño: 6 displaced vs 3 split

-QBO W El Niño: 2 displaced vs 4 split

-Best bet for one is QBO E La Nina followed closely behind by QBO E El Niño

-El Nino had 15 from 12 winters (out of total of 20 winters) and La Niña had 13 from 11 winters (out of total of 18 winters), but neutral had only 7 from 7 winters (out of total of 18 winters)

-To get two in one winter, you almost always have to have first one by Dec

[thunderbolt]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The strat stuff discussed by Cohen and others is so fascinating! To me, getting a major SSW resets the whole winter playing field. It is like getting a new QB and perhaps even more like getting a whole new team mid-game.
 
 Here’s something I found recently:

 

 In this, I noticed these things:

-QBO: E beat W by a large margin, 22 to 13

-QBO E: 14 displaced vs 8 split

-QBO W: 4 displaced vs 9 split

-QBO E El Niño: 6 displaced vs 3 split

-QBO W El Niño: 2 displaced vs 4 split

-Best bet for one is QBO E La Nina followed closely behind by QBO E El Niño

-El Nino had 15 from 12 winters (out of total of 20 winters) and La Niña had 13 from 11 winters (out of total of 18 winters), but neutral had only 7 from 7 winters (out of total of 18 winters)

-To get two in one winter, you almost always have to have first one by Dec

Nice work there GA

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Great call @bluewave

 

 

Yes, kudos to @bluewavefor being specifically all over the jet extension and the modeled propagation of the MJO being biased fast. I expected a mild December, but didn't specifically highlight the jet extension and took the bait on the flip around the holidays. I don't think it changes much in the grand scheme of things, but it may cause December to finish a bit warmer than my predicted +1 to +3F range for the mid atl and NE. We shall see.

Its not too surprising in hindsight considering that essentially a colder version of 2015-2016 has always been the expectation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The strat stuff discussed by Cohen and others is so fascinating! To me, getting a major SSW resets the whole winter playing field. It is like getting a new QB and perhaps even more like getting a whole new team mid-game.
 
 Here’s something I found recently:

 

 In this, I noticed these things:

-QBO: E beat W by a large margin, 22 to 13

-QBO E: 14 displaced vs 8 split

-QBO W: 4 displaced vs 9 split

-QBO E El Niño: 6 displaced vs 3 split

-QBO W El Niño: 2 displaced vs 4 split

-Best bet for one is QBO E La Nina followed closely behind by QBO E El Niño

-El Nino had 15 from 12 winters (out of total of 20 winters) and La Niña had 13 from 11 winters (out of total of 18 winters), but neutral had only 7 from 7 winters (out of total of 18 winters)

-To get two in one winter, you almost always have to have first one by Dec

This is the same, exact list that I used in deciding on my 12/25 to 1/8 date range for the SSW.

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the same, exact list that I used in deciding on my 12/25 to 1/8 date range for the SSW.

 Now I see why you picked those dates.

 If I looked at the list linked below, which is more up to date (though it still needs 2/16/23 to be added), it even more emphatically backs up your thinking because it shows Dec 31-Jan 9 to be the most concentrated period throughout winter for a major SSW during QBO E since it also includes 1/9/77 and 1/2/2019. 

 So, for E QBO going by ERA, this source has 1/9/77, 1/1/85, 12/31/01, 1/5/04, 1/6/13, and 1/2/19. So, 6 events in just that 10 day period.

 If W QBO were also to be included, this source has a whopping 9 events within that 10 day period because 1/7/68, 1/2/70, and 1/5/21 would be added. The only other comparable period for all QBO is the 8 events within the 9 day period 2/21-29.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

[snowman19]

@Gawx Looks like a trimonthly ONI of at least +1.9C is a guarantee at this point. I’d give it till the New Year to see if there’s anymore warming….Probably around mid-January this event starts decaying

[GaWx]

Wow, look at how high the CFS is now forecasting GLAAM to go (consistent with strong El Niño influence)! I don’t recall seeing it this high before. But to be fair I haven’t seen all that many of these charts before as I’m only now first following it regularly:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Wow, look at how high the CFS is now forecasting GLAAM to go (consistent with strong El Niño influence)! I don’t recall seeing it this high before. But to be fair I haven’t seen all that many of these charts before as I’m only now first following it regularly:

+GLAAM is usually a pattern that favors a GOA low, and south-negNAO-ridge, or within a range of those two conditions.  Right now models are not so much showing that, so it will be interesting to see if we trend towards that in the coming days. It tends to be a cold pattern in the SE, US. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Wow, look at how high the CFS is now forecasting GLAAM to go (consistent with strong El Niño influence)! I don’t recall seeing it this high before. But to be fair I haven’t seen all that many of these charts before as I’m only now first following it regularly:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

 

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark This pattern so far does look extremely similar to 1994. If this does turn into a PAC firehose jet pattern then my guess that February is a good month for cold and snow goes right into the crapper. Going to have to see what January does but if we get into mid-late January and there’s a raging PAC jet pumping away, then we are in serious trouble and I don’t think a -NAO/-AO would be of much help at that point IF that’s the case IMO

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

Yeah, it would. Basically canonical Nino. Maybe someone will do the work and post a map. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+GLAAM is usually a pattern that favors a GOA low, and south-negNAO-ridge, or within a range of those two conditions.  Right now models are not so much showing that, so it will be interesting to see if we trend towards that in the coming days. It tends to be a cold pattern in the SE, US. 

+GLAAM wouldn’t favor an Aleutian low instead of a GOA low?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, GaWx said:

+GLAAM wouldn’t favor an Aleutian low instead of a GOA low?

The composite is -150dm between the Aleutian islands and Gulf of Alaska region. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx Looks like a trimonthly ONI of at least +1.9C is a guarantee at this point. I’d give it till the New Year to see if there’s anymore warming….Probably around mid-January this event starts decaying

I would agree...still doubt 2.0, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A strong +GLAAM/El Nino would support a very “Nino-like” atmosphere. If the MJO is active, you would have to look up the 500mb pattern composite for the month, the MJO phase, +AAM and +ENSO to see what the typical atmospheric response (500mb) to those variables would be

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Wow, look at how high the CFS is now forecasting GLAAM to go (consistent with strong El Niño influence)! I don’t recall seeing it this high before. But to be fair I haven’t seen all that many of these charts before as I’m only now first following it regularly:

There are 2 upcoming cold surges w/ sfc high pressure that move into SE Asia, one on Dec 16th and another on Dec 19th.  Those lead to +EAMT which, IMO, combines with the current ENSO state to give us the well-advertised big Pac Jet extension in the Dec 20-25 timeframe...which leads to a Dec 1994 type pattern (warm/mild across much of N Amer).  The first step to getting more cold air into the pattern will be for the SE Asia cold surges and +EAMT / +AAM to back off some.  During La Ninas, we often want to see +EAMT/+AAM to get the Pac Jet to extend into -EPO/+PNA ridging...but in this strong El Nino, the added +AAM is too much of a good thing in this case

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

There are 2 upcoming cold surges w/ sfc high pressure that move into SE Asia, one on Dec 16th and another on Dec 19th.  Those lead to +EAMT which, IMO, combines with the current ENSO state to give us the well-advertised big Pac Jet extension in the Dec 20-25 timeframe...which leads to a Dec 1994 type pattern (warm/mild across much of N Amer).  The first step to getting more cold air into the pattern will be for the SE Asia cold surges and +EAMT / +AAM to back off some.  During La Ninas, we often want to see +EAMT/+AAM to get the Pac Jet to extend into -EPO/+PNA ridging...but in this strong El Nino, the added +AAM is too much of a good thing in this case

Big difference between this year and 1994, as expected, is the PV...which bodes well for an ultimate deviation from that hapless winter season. But even February 1995 eventually had a nice stretch....my one good winter storm, which dropped about 1' in ne MA.

[snowman19]

There are 2 upcoming cold surges w/ sfc high pressure that move into SE Asia, one on Dec 16th and another on Dec 19th.  Those lead to +EAMT which, IMO, combines with the current ENSO state to give us the well-advertised big Pac Jet extension in the Dec 20-25 timeframe...which leads to a Dec 1994 type pattern (warm/mild across much of N Amer).  The first step to getting more cold air into the pattern will be for the SE Asia cold surges and +EAMT / +AAM to back off some.  During La Ninas, we often want to see +EAMT/+AAM to get the Pac Jet to extend into -EPO/+PNA ridging...but in this strong El Nino, the added +AAM is too much of a good thing in this case

An example of +AAM being too much of a good thing is 97-98 (before I get attacked, no I’m not saying this is like 97-98) but that winter was very strong Nino/+AAM/MJO phase 8. Phase 8 did us no good that winter…..even in January

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

An example of +AAM being too much of a good thing is 97-98 (before I get attacked, no I’m not saying this is like 97-98 before I get attacked) but that winter was very strong Nino/+AAM/MJO phase 8. Phase 8 did us no good that winter…..even in January

I see your point....this is a toned down version of 1997 and 2015. Agreed.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

There are 2 upcoming cold surges w/ sfc high pressure that move into SE Asia, one on Dec 16th and another on Dec 19th.  Those lead to +EAMT which, IMO, combines with the current ENSO state to give us the well-advertised big Pac Jet extension in the Dec 20-25 timeframe...which leads to a Dec 1994 type pattern (warm/mild across much of N Amer).  The first step to getting more cold air into the pattern will be for the SE Asia cold surges and +EAMT / +AAM to back off some.  During La Ninas, we often want to see +EAMT/+AAM to get the Pac Jet to extend into -EPO/+PNA ridging...but in this strong El Nino, the added +AAM is too much of a good thing in this case

Thanks, very interesting stuff!

Regarding what I bolded, is this Nino really all that strong when you consider it is only low end strong on a RONI basis and was still only weak on an MEI basis as per the ON of +0.6? Much of this thread's discussion for a long time has been emphasizing that the current Nino is not that strong and not well coupled with the atmosphere.

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see your point....this is a toned down version of 1997 and 2015. Agreed.

 Why do you feel it us even a toned down version of 1997/2015? At best as it looks now the MEI may get only to ~1/2 the MEI of those two (say, low +1s). The RONI is looking to top at only low end strong vs the ~+2.35 peaks of 1997/2015. So, based on MEI and RONI, should 2023 even resemble those?

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, very interesting stuff!

Regarding what I bolded, is this Nino really all that strong when you consider it is only low end strong on a RONI basis and was still only weak on an MEI basis as per the ON of +0.6? Much of this thread's discussion for a long time has been emphasizing that the current Nino is not that strong and not well coupled with the atmosphere.

Well, its also basin-wide....not Modoki. This is why in basin-wide events we often see the more canonical appeal present early on before the more Modoki like patterns establish later.