El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know what I mean....super el nino events are a lock to be exceedingly warm.

1. Based on 1877-8 and 1888-9 being near normal in the NE US, I'm not going as far as to say "lock" to be warm in the NE US if 2023-4 ends up as a super El Niño. I'm be more in the "likely" (say ~70%) camp for that and ~25% chance for near normal.

2. In the SE US overall for the 7 identified super El Niño winters 1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1983-3, and 1997-8 were near normal. 1965-6 was colder than normal while 2015-6 was the only one warmer than normal. So, should it later look likely that 2023-4 is going to be super, I'd likely at that point lean toward near normal DJF temperatures in the SE along with wetter than normal for most places, especially nearer to the coast.

 

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Based on 1877-8 and 1888-9 being near normal in the NE US, I'm not going as far as to say "lock" to be warm in the NE US if 2023-4 ends up as a super El Niño. I'm be more in the "likely" (say ~70%) camp for that.
2. In the SE US overall for the 7 identified super El Niño winters 1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1983-3, and 1997-8 were near normal. 1965-6 was colder than normal while 2015-6 was the only one warmer than normal. So, should it later look likely that 2023-4 is going to be super, I'd likely at that point lean toward near normal DJF temperatures in the SE.
 

The models keep getting warmer and warmer, caving towards the BOM, also, 3.4 just crossed the 0.5C threshold 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nino 1+2 has been above +2 for 7 weeks and 3.4 is only +0.4. By the 7th week in 2015 of 1+2  going above +2 Nino 3.4 was +1.2. At the same point in 1997 it was +0.9. So an unusually long lag in Nino 3.4 warming with the trades staying active near the Dateline.

This event is forming like the old time strong/super El Niños prior to the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 events. The “old” events would start and get strong in regions 1+2 and 3, then migrate west from there into region 3.4. The 72-73 and prior major east-based El Niño events did this

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Based on 1877-8 and 1888-9 being near normal in the NE US, I'm not going as far as to say "lock" to be warm in the NE US if 2023-4 ends up as a super El Niño. I'm be more in the "likely" (say ~70%) camp for that and ~25% chance for near normal.

2. In the SE US overall for the 7 identified super El Niño winters 1877-8, 1888-9, 1972-3, 1983-3, and 1997-8 were near normal. 1965-6 was colder than normal while 2015-6 was the only one warmer than normal. So, should it later look likely that 2023-4 is going to be super, I'd likely at that point lean toward near normal DJF temperatures in the SE along with wetter than normal for most places, especially nearer to the coast.

 

I am speaking of the NE US...I know el nino favors cooler conditions to the south. But if we get an ONI over 2.0, I would comfortably bet body limbs that its at least +3F DM in the NE, at the risk of overlooking the winter of 1877. I would also feel relatively comfortable at betting on at least some small positive departure to the south.

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am speaking of the NE US...I know el nino favors cooler conditions to the south. But if we get an ONI over 2.0, I would comfortably bet body limbs that its at least +3F DM in the NE, at the risk of overlooking the winter of 1877. I would also feel relatively comfortable at betting at least some small positive departure to the south.

The south is cooler in strong/super Nino events simply because the STJ is juiced and roaring across that area all winter, bringing non stop cloud cover and precip

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The south is cooler in strong/super Nino events simply because the STJ is juiced and roaring across that area all winter, bringing non stop cloud cover and precip

Exactly. Its just due to lower levels of solar irradiance.

You will see me go furnace if I think the ONI will get over 2.0...no questions asked. The forcing will only dictate likelihood of a random big snow event from the latter Jan into Feb timeframe.

[George001]

If the ONI is over 2.0 I’m going to set my expectations for another ratter and start looking to the 2024-2025 winter. 

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This event is forming like the old time strong/super El Niños prior to the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 events. The “old” events would start and get strong in regions 1+2 and 3, then migrate west from there into region 3.4. The 72-73 and prior major east-based El Niño events did this

Nino 1+2 didn’t get above +2 until the summer in 1972 and 3.4 was at +1.0 borderline moderate. So there have been no known El Niño evolutions with 3.4 lagging so far behind 1+2. The WPAC didn’t have the record warm pool like we have now. So this event is technically starting out more east based than any other year. How this plays out later on is still to be determined.
 

7th week of Nino 1+2 first going above +2 this year minus 1972.

[bdgwx]

Speaking of lags NINO 3.4 seems to be lagging warm water volume more than usual right now. I have to be honest. I'm still a novice when it comes to ENSO forecasts. What do you guys make of this? 

[snowman19]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nino 1+2 didn’t get above +2 until the summer in 1972 and 3.4 was at +1.0 borderline moderate. So there have been no known El Niño evolutions with 3.4 lagging so far behind 1+2. The WPAC didn’t have the record warm pool like we have now. So this event is technically starting out more east based than any other year. How this plays out later on is still to be determined.
 

7th week of Nino 1+2 first going above +2 this year minus 1972.

Agree that this is an extremely east-based/eastern pacific Nino event, however, I can see it spreading and migrating west from 1+2 and 3 into 3.4 as some of the old time ones have done in the past. Granted there’s definitely some different background states this year as you mentioned

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree that this is an extremely east-based/eastern pacific Nino event, however, I can see it spreading and migrating west from 1+2 and 3 into 3.4 as some of the old time ones have done in the past. Granted there’s definitely some different background states this year as you mentioned

This is the first time I can remember seeing a subsurface chart like this. The super events in 2015 and 1997 had much more warming near and below the surface in 3.4. The warming in 1+2 can only spread out so much. Really need the trades to relax to have a shot at +1.5 strong or +2.0 super in 3.4. 
 

 

[jconsor]

Thread detailing three of the main explanations for the series of recent false El Nino forecast busts or overly strong El Nino forecasts.  
 

 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thread detailing three of the main explanations for the series of recent false El Nino forecast busts or overly strong El Nino forecasts.  
 

 

 Directly related to your 3rd Tweet regarding the idea of subtracting the warming of tropical oceans from the Nino 3.4 SSTA to produce a "relative Nino 3.4 index" or "RONI":

 

"Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response (see footnote).

The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually."

Footnote:

 "

• This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."

------------------------------

  Since 2016, the RONI has averaged 0.4 C lower than ONI due to accelerated tropical ocean warming. So, my take is that the El Niño threshold based on RONI currently requires the ONI to reach +0.9 C and remain there for at least five straight trimonths instead of just +0.5 C for five trimonths to allow the atmosphere to act like there is a 3.4 based El Niño. Taking this further based on RONI:

- moderate Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.4 C instead of just +1.0 C

- strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.9 C instead of just +1.5 C

- super strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +2.4 C instead of just +2.0 C

 RONI might explain why the atmosphere in 2018-9 didn't act more typical of El Niño. Based on RONI, it would have been only warm neutral instead of weak El Niño.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-niño-knocking-door

[snowman19]

 Directly related to your 3rd Tweet regarding the idea of subtracting the warming of tropical oceans from the Nino 3.4 SSTA to produce a "relative Nino 3.4 index" or "RONI":

 

"Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response (see footnote).

The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually."

Footnote:

 "

• This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."

------------------------------

  Since 2016, the RONI has averaged 0.4 C lower than ONI due to accelerated tropical ocean warming. So, my take is that the El Niño threshold based on RONI currently requires the ONI to reach +0.9 C and remain there for at least five straight trimonths instead of just +0.5 C for five trimonths to allow the atmosphere to act like there is a 3.4 based El Niño. Taking this further based on RONI:

- moderate Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.4 C instead of just +1.0 C

- strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.9 C instead of just +1.5 C

- super strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +2.4 C instead of just +2.0 C

 RONI might explain why the atmosphere in 2018-9 didn't act more typical of El Niño. Based on RONI, it would have been only warm neutral instead of weak El Niño.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-niño-knocking-door

Not so sure the atmosphere isn’t responding….the SOI is dropping like a rock

[griteater]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

• This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."

Good info @GaWx and @jconsor on this relative ONI (RONI) concept as I agree with the premise and what the index is attempting to accomplish given the rate of ongoing background SST warming.

 

Here are winter pattern composites for the Moderate / Strong / Super Ninos based off of this RONI index.  For designation, I averaged the 3 highest consecutive tri-monthly values during the SON to JFM period.  Using those computed averages, I used Mod Nino (+1.00 to +1.49) / Strong Nino (+1.50 to +1.99) / Super Nino (+2.00 and higher).  I also compared the pattern years against the appropriate climo period (i.e. "minus X years)

 

Moderate El Ninos

 

 

Strong El Ninos 

 

Super El Ninos

[snowman19]

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not so sure the atmosphere isn’t responding….the SOI is dropping like a rock

Thanks for posting this. We'll see whether or not this is a sign of things to come. Believe it or not, today's -31.31 is only the third sub -30 daily SOI since way back in July of 2020!

 Also, there has yet to be a long string of negatives this year. Actually, there hasn't been a negative daily string longer than 10 days since April of 2020! I'd want to start seeing longer than 10 day negative strings to have more confidence that the upcoming El Niño is starting to be significantly reflected up into the atmosphere.

 We're on a four day negative string now, which in itself isn't a big deal. Let's see whether or not this is going to turn into a much longer one.

[thunderbolt]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You don’t ever see this….NOAA giving 94% odds of a very significant El Niño event this fall and early winter….

Keyword potentially

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Keyword potentially

Saying "potentially significant" is vague. Not only in using the word "potentially", but also the word "significant". One can argue that even just a moderate El Niño could be considered significant. One definition of significant is "likely to have influence or effect". A moderate El Niño is typically strong enough to have influence or effect. Most of us have known for quite some time that a moderate or stronger El Niño is likely on the way.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Saying "potentially significant" is vague. Not only in using the word "potentially", but also the word "significant". One can argue that even just a moderate El Niño could be considered significant. One definition of significant is "likely to have influence or effect". A moderate El Niño is typically strong enough to have influence or effect.

if they mean significant in the strict statistical sense, then I would imagine that a moderate El Nino would be such. definitely strong... the statement does not imply a super Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Directly related to your 3rd Tweet regarding the idea of subtracting the warming of tropical oceans from the Nino 3.4 SSTA to produce a "relative Nino 3.4 index" or "RONI":

 

"Another factor to consider is that the widespread ocean warmth may make it a little more challenging for the warm temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific to induce a tropical atmospheric response (maybe a reason for the current ENSO-neutral looking tropical atmosphere?). The reason is that the response of the tropical atmosphere depends on surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific relative to the surrounding regions. If those surrounding tropical regions are also warmer than average, then the bar is even higher for the Niño-3.4 region surface temperature anomalies to induce an atmospheric response (see footnote).

The bottom line is that in terms of a push on the tropical atmosphere, we need to consider that the Niño-3.4 index may punch below its weight while it’s hovering in borderline El Niño territory, as it is now. However, if the central-eastern Pacific continues to warm up, we can expect that the atmosphere will feel that push eventually."

Footnote:

 "

• This issue is why some, including Michelle of this blog, have advocated the monitoring of a relative Niño-3.4 or relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI). The NOAA Climate Prediction Center monitors the RONI here. The RONI is simply our standard ONI (3-month average Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly) with the tropical average sea surface temperature subtracted. Such an index is less sensitive to a warming climate and, consistent with some of my earlier research, is more closely connected with changes in the tropical atmosphere than the standard ONI."

------------------------------

  Since 2016, the RONI has averaged 0.4 C lower than ONI due to accelerated tropical ocean warming. So, my take is that the El Niño threshold based on RONI currently requires the ONI to reach +0.9 C and remain there for at least five straight trimonths instead of just +0.5 C for five trimonths to allow the atmosphere to act like there is a 3.4 based El Niño. Taking this further based on RONI:

- moderate Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.4 C instead of just +1.0 C

- strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +1.9 C instead of just +1.5 C

- super strong Niño currently requires ONI peak of +2.4 C instead of just +2.0 C

 RONI might explain why the atmosphere in 2018-9 didn't act more typical of El Niño. Based on RONI, it would have been only warm neutral instead of weak El Niño.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/may-2023-enso-update-el-niño-knocking-door

This make sense to me.

[bluewave]

The trades still up near the Dateline is still very Niña-like despite the recent SOI drop. So the record WPAC warm pool isn’t letting the El Niño atmospheric response develop yet. These are the weakest early May WWBs for any El Niño year since 04 an 02. Nothing like the super 2016 and 1997 WWBs. This is why there is still a big lag between 3.4 and 1+2.

 

 

 

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Saying "potentially significant" is vague. Not only in using the word "potentially", but also the word "significant". One can argue that even just a moderate El Niño could be considered significant. One definition of significant is "likely to have influence or effect". A moderate El Niño is typically strong enough to have influence or effect. Most of us have known for quite some time that a moderate or stronger El Niño is likely on the way.

Well said GA

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 5/11/2023 at 1:20 PM, bdgwx said:

Speaking of lags NINO 3.4 seems to be lagging warm water volume more than usual right now. I have to be honest. I'm still a novice when it comes to ENSO forecasts. What do you guys make of this? 

I don't know about that.. 

I know the subsurface has been positive for a while

 

[so_whats_happening]

Again just forecasts for this time period but not the right direction in fact we may start to see some cooling taking place in 1+2 and 3 from these warm temps. This may help create forcing to stay in the maritime region. This ultimately does look like it will produce a Kelvin wave that should make its way east in time. PDO region is warming but look at the warm tongue still holding on east of Japan that doesn't exactly tell me a flip in the PDO. Noticed the -EPO is really digging into the NW PAC/ western Canada the past week and to continue into the next week so this will surely help raise the PDO region. 

I hate to be this person but this is still not a great look for a Nino moderate still on the tables strong may be slowly slipping away if this continues, upper level winds (200mb) still show an anomalous westerly component over the tropics this helps induce a sinking motion further east in the pacific and South America area with a continuation of decent trades. Still just way too murky and nothing straight forward telling me this is going to go full El Nino just yet. Maybe this is our precursor year? Still has been a thought in my head.

[snowman19]

The trades still up near the Dateline is still very Niña-like despite the recent SOI drop. So the record WPAC warm pool isn’t letting the El Niño atmospheric response develop yet. These are the weakest early May WWBs for any El Niño year since 04 an 02. Nothing like the super 2016 and 1997 WWBs. This is why there is still a big lag between 3.4 and 1+2.
 





 








 

So far, this Nino event is concentrated in regions 3 and 1+2. Back in the day, they used to use region 3 instead of 3.4 to officially determine Nino strength https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino3.png

[snowman19]

Paul Roundy still gung ho about this being a very strong El Niño

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Horrendous job on the December-March snowfall forecast this season...my worst in 9 years of doing this. However, I don't rate the forecast in its entirety as the worst. Diagnosis of the overall pattern, while leaving something to be desired, was not as poor as the great dearth of snowfall would imply. Primary issues were misdiagnosing the orientation of la nina and underestimating what turned out be a historic season Pacific cold phase.
Give this one a "D".
Time to flip the page and focus on the developing el nino-
https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/05/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-review.html

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 5/11/2023 at 12:04 PM, jconsor said:

Thread detailing three of the main explanations for the series of recent false El Nino forecast busts or overly strong El Nino forecasts.  
 

 

I couldn't agree more with the first in the series facets, related to being cognizant of background global SST anomaly. 

I'll add to that "...Since the 1990s..." with an op ed: 

The recent global 'warm burst' ( which is still being analyzed for veracity vs instrumentation, granted - ) that too unprecedented form during the Feb-early Apr period, seemed to coincide with the demise of the -ONI - perhaps related, perhaps not.  It may present certain challenges to straight up linear assessment.

1 ...The SOI is (albeit weakening..) still technically in the positive mode, which in addition to being [actually] not correlated with the warm ENSO - NINO 4 vs 3.4 VS  1+2 quadrature, notwithstanding - the deltas were behaving/weakening like a typical dying La Nina as of April.

2022   +0.8   +1.8   +2.9   +2.8   +2.4   +2.8   +1.3   +1.7   +2.7   +2.8   +0.5   +3.5
2023   +2.3   +2.3   +0.3   +0.4

           (  Jan         Feb        Mar        Apr   ... )

The present warmth that is noted everywhere associated with the 'warm burst' phenomenon, precedes(ed) the  SOI ( Southern Oscillation Index is a very institutional/physically clad means for assessing the state the llv mass flux associated with the ENSO phases.  Positive pressure anomalies --> negative ENSO, and vice versa. )  This all raises question over whether the present warming is really El Nino onset. 

2 ... The "effectiveness" of the ENSO toward forcing/modulating the climate becomes questionable.  The last "super Nino" that occurred was noted as being only tepidly disruptive around the typical climate expression avenues of the larger environmental manifold - above or below medium impact.  This "absorption" phenomenon by the total system, lowers gradient between the tropics and the mid latitudes ... which changes the triggers in the total physically integrated sense.  In other words, the warmer than normal total oceanic space out side, as it is already quasi coupled to the atmosphere, may be subsuming some of the mechanical forcing of ENSO.