El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowman, kudos for recognizing it and changing that emoji. I respect that.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

55 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

Major Stratoshperic warming taking place, let's see where it takes us.

If it's starting today, the highest correlation to 500mb -NAO starts ~Jan 5-10. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If it's starting today, the highest correlation to 500mb -NAO starts ~Jan 5-10. 

Which happens to be during the "weeniest" week on the current weeklies coincidentally. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The late November weeklies in 2015 completely missed the record warmth for December. They had a stock Nino ridge in NW Canada and SE Nino trough for December. Instead we got the opposite with a PAC NW trough and SE ridge. My guess is that the error was missing the record MJO 5 El Niño pattern which produced the historic +13 warmth with that ridiculous standing wave. 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/

 

 

 

 Not only Dec, but the entire DJF of 2015-6 was dominated by much stronger MJO than is being suggested this time at least from mid Dec into Jan. Stronger MJO generally translates to a warmer E US. Many of the coldest spells during El Niño have occurred during weak MJO, especially left side. I posted/reposted 15 occurrences with MJO/temps at NYC/ATL in an earlier post to back up my idea. From this point forward, there were only ~10 days of winter near or within COD MJO during 2015-6, with most of that Jan 18-25. The sole big snow of 2015-6 was on Jan 23rd, which was smack dab in the middle of that weak MJO when the MJO was inside the COD phase 2 (red line):

 In stark contrast to the stronger MJO of 2015-6, the following 2 week progs have a weak phase 8 MJO on Dec 20th with extended model progs suggesting it will remain weak and slowly traverse 8/1/2 going into Jan:

 

1) GEFS: very slow move in weak MJO 8 at end

 

2) EPS: slow move in weak MJO 8 at end

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Not only Dec, but the entire DJF of 2015-6 was dominated by much stronger MJO than is being suggested this time at least from late Dec into Jan. Stronger MJO generally translates to a warmer E US. Many of the coldest spells during El Niño have occurred during weak MJO, especially left side. I posted/reposted 15 occurrences with MJO/temps at NYC/ATL in an earlier post to back up my idea. From this point forward, there were only ~10 days of near or within COD MJO during 2015-6, with most of that Jan 18-25. The sole big snow of 2015-6 was on Jan 23rd, which was smack dab in the middle of that weak MJO when the MJO was inside the COD phase 2 (red line):

 In stark contrast to the stronger MJO of 2015-6, the following 2 week progs have a weak phase 8 MJO on Dec 20th with extended model progs suggesting it will remain weak and slowly traverse 8/1/2 going into Jan:

 

1) GEFS: very slow move in weak MJO 8 at end

 

2) EPS: slow move in weak MJO 8 at end

One point to add, we’re progged to get into phase 7 around Dec 12-15. That hasn’t changed, so I’m not seeing a can-kick there. 

Also to reiterate, some of our biggest EC snows started as a wave in the N Pac while the MJO was in phase 7.

[GaWx]

I was curious and decided to do a Google search to see if I could find any study of the relationship of MJO amplitude and E US temperatures and this is what I found:

https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=honorscollege_daes

 It backs up what I've been saying about weak MJO (including inside COD) as opposed to strong MJO tending to be supportive of cold anomalies in the E US! That's why I'm hopeful for a much colder outcome late Dec onward than 2015-6 and many other winters.

 

Figure 13 (shown just below) in this study suggests that cold anomaly events in the eastern U.S. tend to have weak (amplitude <1)
RMM signals. But this includes ALL seasons. All but one of the 17 strong MJO phase 7, 8, 1, and 2 events seen in figure 13 actually occurred OUTSIDE of winter as you'll see in figure 14 shown further down.

 

 

Figure 14 below is the same except just for DJF. In this, I count a total of 47 cold E US events. A whopping 85% (40) of the cold DJF events had the MJO either just outside, on, or within the COD! A mere one of the 47 (in phase 7) had strong MJO! If you want a cold E US period in winter, your best bet by far is if the MJO is near or inside the COD, which is where model consensus says we're headed. A picture is worth a thousand words:

 

.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

Looks like the Euro Weeklies from late Nov 2015 for Dec had a sort of stock super nino look with a big Aleutian Low and big ridge over Canada and Northern U.S (only posting the Dec Wk 2 image here).....but yeah, the final outcome was shifted east with ridge in E U.S.

My guess is that the ECMWF seasonal and weeklies beyond week 2 automatically default to the stock climo composite for whichever ENSO state is dominant at the time. The main weakness of this approach is that it can’t see the correct phase of the MJO which interacts with El Niño or La Niña to create the actual 500 mb pattern.

So the more one dimensional ENSO approach last winter missed the deep trough in the West. But the general La Niña composite had some utility for placement of ridges and troughs. The MJO interaction likely drove the deeper trough and stronger -PDO pattern.

A stock La Niña composite didn’t work in January 22 since the MJO interaction which wasn’t foreseen at the seasonal level drove the anomalous +PNA pattern.

The record breaking MJO which drove the SSW which lead to the historic March snowfall outcome on Long Island in March 2018  also wasn’t detected by the seasonal models. But once close to initialization time, the forecasts were pretty good. 

Details like the record MJO 5 interacting with the El Niño in December 2015 resulted in the historic Northeast warmth which wasn’t forecast by the seasonal or weekly models. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

 Absolutely awesome and as weak an SPV as on any Euro Weeklies run yet in early Jan! Still, we need to always make sure there’s no can kicking/mirage effect. There’s been some of that in mid to late Dec with not as weak a SPV vs earlier runs.  OTOH, for now, I’m not seeing slippage for ~Jan 11th potential, which is where the greatest potential is currently centered.

 This run appears to have ~~50% of the members with a major SSW between 12/27 and 1/20! The mean EPS gets as low as a mere 12 m/s on Jan 11th vs a climo normal of 33 then! I’ll compare the Jan 11th mean to prior runs to see if there’s can kicking then:

today’s run (12/6): 12 m/s

12/5 run: 17 m/s

12/4 run: 14 m/s

12/3 run: 15 m/s

12/2 run: 15 m/s

12/1 run: 18 m/s

11/30 run: 23 m/s

11/29 run: 23 m/s

 So, no slippage and if anything the opposite with the 12 m/s the weakest yet for Jan 11th.

I count 19% that dip to the extreme level of sub -15, which would be near a record low for the entire 12/27-1/20 period. There are 9% that drop to -20, 8% to sub -25, and 5% that go sub -30. Combine that with favorable weak MJO and there would appear to be so much potential for January in the E US, especially mid-Atlantic south:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^ Since 1948, El Nino/-QBO correlates to +anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time, and La Nina/+QBO correlates to -anomaly at 10mb in the Winter 75% of the time. 

The El Nino is +2.1, and QBO -19, so they are both top 15% strongest. 

[mitchnick]

It can change fast, but the Cfs' latest run is seeing the light for January and February.

[snowman19]

Here comes the next period of WWBs and El Nino strengthening/warming:

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the ECMWF seasonal and weeklies beyond week 2 automatically default to the stock climo composite for whichever ENSO state is dominant at the time. The main weakness of this approach is that it can’t see the correct phase of the MJO which interacts with El Niño or La Niña to create the actual 500 mb pattern.

So the more one dimensional ENSO approach last winter missed the deep trough in the West. But the general La Niña composite had some utility for placement of ridges and troughs. The MJO interaction likely drove the deeper trough and stronger -PDO pattern.

A stock La Niña composite didn’t work in January 22 since the MJO interaction which wasn’t foreseen at the seasonal level drove the anomalous +PNA pattern.

The record breaking MJO which drove the SSW which lead to the historic March snowfall outcome on Long Island in March 2018  also wasn’t detected by the seasonal models. But once close to initialization time, the forecasts were pretty good. 

Details like the record MJO 5 interacting with the El Niño in December 2015 resulted in the historic Northeast warmth which wasn’t forecast by the seasonal or weekly models. 
 

 

 

The Euro weeklies match the ensembles and Roundy's MJO tool perfectly...they have also been consistent for months. I don't think this is just a case of "stock ENSO"....I think its right. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Absolutely awesome and as weak an SPV as on any Euro Weeklies run yet in early Jan! Still, we need to always make sure there’s no can kicking/mirage effect. There’s been some of that in mid to late Dec with not as weak a SPV vs earlier runs.  OTOH, for now, I’m not seeing slippage for ~Jan 11th potential, which is where the greatest potential is currently centered.

 This run appears to have ~~50% of the members with a major SSW between 12/27 and 1/20! The mean EPS gets as low as a mere 12 m/s on Jan 11th vs a climo normal of 33 then! I’ll compare the Jan 11th mean to prior runs to see if there’s can kicking then:

today’s run (12/6): 12 m/s

12/5 run: 17 m/s

12/4 run: 14 m/s

12/3 run: 15 m/s

12/2 run: 15 m/s

12/1 run: 18 m/s

11/30 run: 23 m/s

11/29 run: 23 m/s

 So, no slippage and if anything the opposite with the 12 m/s the weakest yet for Jan 11th.

I count 9% that go to the extreme level of sub -20, 8% to sub -25, and 5% that go sub -30. When you get to sub -20, you’re looking at (near) record territory extreme. Combine that with favorable weak MJO and there would appear to be so much potential for January in the E US, especially mid-Atlantic south:

I don't think its relegated to mid Atlantic and south......N stream looks to remain active. 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Euro weeklies match the ensembles and Roundy's MJO tool perfectly...they have also been consistent for months. I don't think this is just a case of "stock ENSO"....I think its right. 

My post was based on what has happened in the past. Of course which a borderline super El Niño aspects of the stock composite will work out. Just like features of the La Niña typical composite worked out last winter. But some of the most important details the model didn’t see. I was pointing out several months ago that we could see a rebound in WPAC SSTs leading to more Maritime Continent MJO phases in December. This was completely missed by the Euro seasonal. Sure the warmth in Canada pushing down into the Northern Tier has been expected. But the strength of the Pacific Jet into the PAC NW modulated by the more La Niña-like MJO phases was missed. Notice the PAC NW was supposed to be dry this month and it had all its eggs in the STJ basket and not the the record breaking moisture and soundings in the Pacific NW. 

Euro seasonal not enough forcing near the Maritime Continent and too dry in Pacific NW in December 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My post was based on what has happened in the past. Of course which a borderline super El Niño aspects of the stock composite will work out. Just like features of the La Niña typical composite worked out last winter. But some of the most important details the model didn’t see. I was pointing out several months ago that we could see a rebound in WPAC SSTs leading to more Maritime Continent MJO phases in December. This was completely missed by the Euro seasonal. Sure the warmth in Canada pushing down into the Northern Tier has been expected. But the strength of the Pacific Jet into the PAC NW modulated by the more La Niña-like MJO phases was missed. Notice the PAC NW was supposed to be dry this month and it had all its eggs in the STJ basket and not the the record breaking moisture and soundings in the Pacific NW. 

Euro seasonal not enough forcing near the Maritime Continent and too dry in Pacific NW in December 

 

 

 

I will say, I am sure that there will be some sequences of Maritime contributions that aren't reflected in the monthlies....IE, I don't think we are going to see this standing wave of orgasm from Christmas to St Paddy's day. But those details won't be picked up at this range....so I agree with you. For instance, I feel that there will be a thaw in mid January.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say, I am sure that there will be some sequences of Maritime contributions that aren't reflected in the monthlies....IE, I don't think we are going to see this standing wave of orgasm from Christmas to St Paddy's day. But those details won't be picked up at this range....so I agree with you. For instance, I feel that there will be a thaw in mid January.

Sorry. In weenie therapy class we call it a "reload."

[stadiumwave]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Absolutely awesome and as weak an SPV as on any Euro Weeklies run yet in early Jan! Still, we need to always make sure there’s no can kicking/mirage effect. There’s been some of that in mid to late Dec with not as weak a SPV vs earlier runs.  OTOH, for now, I’m not seeing slippage for ~Jan 11th potential, which is where the greatest potential is currently centered.

 This run appears to have ~~50% of the members with a major SSW between 12/27 and 1/20! The mean EPS gets as low as a mere 12 m/s on Jan 11th vs a climo normal of 33 then! I’ll compare the Jan 11th mean to prior runs to see if there’s can kicking then:

today’s run (12/6): 12 m/s

12/5 run: 17 m/s

12/4 run: 14 m/s

12/3 run: 15 m/s

12/2 run: 15 m/s

12/1 run: 18 m/s

11/30 run: 23 m/s

11/29 run: 23 m/s

 So, no slippage and if anything the opposite with the 12 m/s the weakest yet for Jan 11th.

I count 19% that dip to the extreme level of sub -15, which would be near a record low for the entire 12/27-1/20 period. There are 9% that drop to -20, 8% to sub -25, and 5% that go sub -30. Combine that with favorable weak MJO and there would appear to be so much potential for January in the E US, especially mid-Atlantic south:

 

Euro, Day 10

10mb

 

50mb

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully we can get that SSW within my 12/25 to 1/8 window...I pick two week windows based upon the anticipated seasonal progression and timing of analogs. I may have been a whisker too fast back near the start of November when I published.

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can get that SSW within my 12/25 to 1/8 window...I pick two week windows based upon the anticipated seasonal progression and timing of analogs. I may have been a whisker too fast back near the start of November when I published.

 Yeah, per last few extended GEFS and Euro Weeklies, the chance for a major SSW (say when 10 mb winds actually go <0) in late Dec is quite low as of now. The Euro has pulled back substantially on late Dec chances vs earlier runs. But just a few days into Jan, the chances pick up substantially meaning the 2nd week of your two week window has a far greater chance than your 1st week. The EPS is showing right now the best chances for 10 mb winds to first go <0 Jan 2nd-20th. The GEFS suggests best chances Jan 4th or later. Of course, getting one at all is still far from certain. But the signals are there and are probably about as strong as they’re going to be on models still this far (3.5+ weeks) out.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

My post was based on what has happened in the past. Of course which a borderline super El Niño aspects of the stock composite will work out. Just like features of the La Niña typical composite worked out last winter. But some of the most important details the model didn’t see. I was pointing out several months ago that we could see a rebound in WPAC SSTs leading to more Maritime Continent MJO phases in December. This was completely missed by the Euro seasonal. Sure the warmth in Canada pushing down into the Northern Tier has been expected. But the strength of the Pacific Jet into the PAC NW modulated by the more La Niña-like MJO phases was missed. Notice the PAC NW was supposed to be dry this month and it had all its eggs in the STJ basket and not the the record breaking moisture and soundings in the Pacific NW. 

Euro seasonal not enough forcing near the Maritime Continent and too dry in Pacific NW in December 

 

 

 

We still can’t shake that Nina forcing in 4-7. OLR maps keep the mjo in 6-7 into the 11-15 day The RMM charts are chasing convection at the end with the curl Into cod 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We still can’t shake that Nina forcing in 4-7. OLR maps keep the mjo in 6-7 into the 11-15 day The RMM charts are chasing convection at the end with the curl Into cod 

I'm not seeing that here. looks like a clean progression east. of course you're going to get some forcing lingering back as the wave progresses

[brooklynwx99]

On 12/3/2023 at 10:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the Maritime continent is going to swallow the world and the entire planet will be one giant phase 5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I should put that in my sig.

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We still can’t shake that Nina forcing in 4-7. OLR maps keep the mjo in 6-7 into the 11-15 day The RMM charts are chasing convection at the end with the curl Into cod 

Pretty much par for the course with the rapidly expanding WPAC warm pool holding convection longer in the warmer MJO phases. So we have been going through some version of this most of this decade in December. Long range guidance always underestimates the intensity of the MJO 4-7 phases. Then it tries to weaken convection too soon and the warmth lingers longer than expected. 
 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty much par for the course with the rapidly expanding WPAC warm pool holding convection longer in the warmer MJO phases. So we have been going through some version of this most of this decade in December. Long range guidance always underestimates the intensity of the MJO 4-7 phases. Then it tries to weaken convection too soon and the warmth lingers longer than expected. 
 

Yup, many will read those silly RMM plots and say convection is moving along quickly. When in the reality the OLR maps are showing convection still in 6/7 as the initial wave weakens in p8 

[stadiumwave]

JMA Weeklies just updated. 

Week 1

 

Week 2

 

Week 3 & 4

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA Weeklies just updated. 

Week 1

 

Week 2

 

Week 3 & 4

Pretty consistent with the GEM, EURO and GFS products.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty much par for the course with the rapidly expanding WPAC warm pool holding convection longer in the warmer MJO phases. So we have been going through some version of this most of this decade in December. Long range guidance always underestimates the intensity of the MJO 4-7 phases. Then it tries to weaken convection too soon and the warmth lingers longer than expected. 
 

 I agree that phases 4-7 have tended to be underestimated for the last few years due largely to the tropical warm WPac per met. Brad Harvey. As I’ve said, he looks at the tropical WPac area N of Australia. That area actually remains cooler than it has been since 2015 and significantly cooler than 2021-3.

 But what’s happened over the last 7 days? Have the forecasted phases 4-7 strengthened?

A. 1) GEFS (bc) run from 11/30:

 

2) GEFS (bc) run from today:

 So, today’s GEFS is actually slightly weaker in 4 and significantly weaker in 5-7.

———————————————

B. 1) EPS (bc) run from 11/30:

 

2) EPS (bc) run from today:

 So, today’s EPS unlike GEFS is a bit stronger in 4/5 and the first part of 6 vs the 11/30 run. However, it then curls back into the COD beyond where the 11/30 run ended.

 So, it is a wash over the last week between the changes of the two models. But note that neither of today’s models has it strong at the end with GEFS just outside the COD in 8 and EPS weak inside the COD of 7. Hopefully, the models won’t trend stronger then and that the actual trek into 8/1/2/3 will end up weak. That’s because weak MJO would mean a much better shot at cold late month into Jan vs mod to strong MJO per this diagram of DJF MJO for E US cold shots:

[Typhoon Tip]

The basic zonal temp anomaly provided by

shows a thermal intrusion taking place at this time. 

As Chuck hinted, SSW have a time lag correlation.  This is ( or should be ) known.  The correlation is between 20 and 30 days prior to AO response. 

Also, SSW can come, register a -AO response, and it meant nothing. Folks should also be aware, there are other planetary aspects that can modulate/interfere with how a -AO  contributes to mid level pattern,  and/or temperature anomaly distribution - 'where' being paramount. 

SSW do not always = what one may think.

Also ... a warm intrusion may not be propagating downward. That's an important distinction in the subsequent correlation.  Many of the SSW in the data set ( from the same source) show that there was a cyclic presentation of a warm node prior to the main flux, that latter being what then down-wells in the system.  That down welling takes a couple of weeks to suspend through the domain depths toward the tropospause - at around the point in which that takes place is when the PV pancakes and bifurcates, which is the -AO response.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The basic zonal temp anomaly provided by

shows a thermal intrusion taking place at this time. 

As Chuck hinted, SSW have a time lag correlation.  This is ( or should be ) known.  The correlation is between 20 and 30 days prior to AO response. 

Also, SSW can come, register a -AO response, and it meant nothing. Folks should also be aware, there are other planetary aspects that can modulate/interfere with how a -AO  contributes to mid level pattern,  and/or temperature anomaly distribution - 'where' being paramount. 

SSW do not always = what one may think

 Keep in mind that this Dec 7th warming has been well modeled for awhile and I assume you realize this is not anything close to a major SSW, which I figure you know requires the mean 60N winds at 10mb to reverse/drop to <0. As one can see on the EPS run below, the 10 mb wind is still way up at ~+30 m/s as of 12/7. So, the current warming is at best considered a “minor” warming. Per this EPS, the first chance for an actual major SSW isn't for another 3 weeks with the best chance not til January. That’s when the real deal may come: