El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’ve posted many examples of weak left side MJO during El Niño showing that this combo during winter is often cold in the E US, especially SE US-Mid Atlantic. And that’s not necessarily even requiring a weak SPV.

I have seen but im not sure what you are getting at, care to explain further? Why it applies to my post about December? For January it doesn't make too much of a difference whether it is strong or weak in phase 8 and 1 the results are a cooler pattern.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I wouldn’t bet on a combo of El Niño, WEAK 8/1/2 MJO, and a weak SPV being mild in the E US in winter.

But that isn’t what I said. MJO 8 is still warm during an El Niño but we see improvement with phases 2 and 3 in January. As for the weak SPV this month during the El Niño, all the cold is currently over in Eurasia. So it isn’t doing us any good. Hopefully, we see changes on that front during the winters 2nd half should blocking persist. 
 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Looks like we are way out of 2009-2010 territory, at least by ONI. Already higher than the peak from that event. Below the mega events of 1997-1998 & 2015-2016, but only a touch below the SON ONI from 1982 (2.0) and on par with 1972 (1.8) and those were two of the strongest events until the 1997-1998 El Nino.

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But that isn’t what I said. MJO 8 is still warm during an El Niño but we see improvement with phases 2 and 3 in January. As for the weak SPV this month during the El Niño, all the cold is currently over in Eurasia. So it isn’t doing us any good. Hopefully, we see changes on that front during the winters 2nd half should blocking persist. 
 

 

This about as classic of a wave 1 response (SPV displacement) as you get. The lack of strong CWB in the Atlantic is hurting the potential of wave 2 pattern popping up at this moment.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

This about as classic of a wave 1 response (SPV displacement) as you get. The lack of strong CWB in the Atlantic is hurting the potential of wave 2 pattern popping up at this moment.

This will be two Decembers in a row with a disappointing -AO pattern under both La Niña and El Niño patterns due to the very hostile Pacific. 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I have seen but im not sure what you are getting at, care to explain further? Why it applies to my post about December? For January it doesn't make too much of a difference whether it is strong or weak in phase 8 and 1 the results are a cooler pattern.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be two Decembers in a row with a disappointing -AO pattern under both La Niña and El Niño patterns due to the very hostile Pacific. 

Makes sense....December usually blows in el Nino and last December we had one of he most potent cold ENSO Walker Cells on record.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Phase 8 is warm in December into January during and El Niño. The most extreme example of this was January 1998.

 

 

 

so if the traditional warm phases are warm, and the cold phases are also warm...what MJO phases are cold signals in Dec/Jan for cold in a nino?  

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

Again I even gave you a little heart because I read through your discussion I see what you are trying to say. Until we get to the cooler phases which do not happen until the end of the month we will feel the effects of warmth from the warmer phases and even when that happens the dirty work is done and December should still average above outside of the far NE and probably PAC NW. I still do not know what you are trying to refute here from what I said. Phase 7 all amplitudes, including low ones, still offers a warm look in the east for December. Phase 8 has a more neutral tendency which could offer some cool SE look but would just bring averages instead of say +3 to a more +1 to +2 state. 

As we carry over to January Phase 8 and 1 show a much colder signal, stronger amplitude would favor a slightly warmer scenario but still cold.

[so_whats_happening]

To get back on topic a bit here is the upcoming look at the WWB there is certainly something there.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

To get back on topic a bit here is the upcoming look at the WWB there is certainly something there.

Judging from the gradients near the dateline, forcing should strengthen around the dateline and then drift a bit east after Dec 17 or so

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Judging from the gradients near the dateline, forcing should strengthen around the dateline and then drift a bit east after Dec 17 or so

Potentially that time frame has been changing over the last few days. Couple days ago it showed a strong advance to 3.4 but has backed off. I get the feeling we may in fact have a stronger MJO wave through 6/7 than what is currently modeled but will have to wait probably another week to get a better grasp. Until then I expect the cold to not really filter into the east until the last week of December and that may be generous.

BTW PDO updated yesterday down to -1.79 for November from -2.97 in September. Truly rare territory here even 72-73 warmed the PDO to near neutral for this time period. The only years that managed to be close to this low during an El Nino were 94-95 and 04-05 in the last ~70 years.

[stadiumwave]

Euro Seasonal Update

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Potentially that time frame has been changing over the last few days. Couple days ago it showed a strong advance to 3.4 but has backed off. I get the feeling we may in fact have a stronger MJO wave through 6/7 than what is currently modeled but will have to wait probably another week to get a better grasp. Until then I expect the cold to not really filter into the east until the last week of December and that may be generous.

BTW PDO updated yesterday down to -1.79 for November from -2.97 in September. Truly rare territory here even 72-73 warmed the PDO to near neutral for this time period. The only years that managed to be close to this low during an El Nino were 94-95 and 04-05 in the last ~70 years.

'04-'05 is one of my polar analogs.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Makes sense....December usually blows in el Nino and last December we had one of he most potent cold ENSO Walker Cells on record.

Last December was the warmest La Niña on record around NYC with a -2.000 or lower monthly AO reading. If we can hold onto a -AO for the December average, then this could be the first El Niño -AO for NYC with a monthly average temperature over 40.0°. 
 

La Niña Decembers with -AO lower than -2.000 and NYC average temperature 

2022….-2.719…38.5°

2010…..-2.631….32.8°

2005….-2.104…..35.3°

2000….-2.354….31.1°

1995…..-2.127….32.4°

 

All El Niño -AO Decembers and NYC average temperature 

2009….-3.413….35.9°

2002….-1.592….36.0°

1997…..-0.071…..38.2°

1987…..-0.534…..39.5°

1977…..-0.240…..35.6°

1976…..-2.074…..29.9°

1969…..-1.865…..33.4°

1968…..-0.783….34.2°

1963…..-1.178…..31.2°

1958……-1.687…..29.3°

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last December was the warmest La Niña on record around NYC with a -2.000 or lower monthly AO reading. If we can hold onto a -AO for the December average, then this could be the first El Niño -AO for NYC with a monthly average temperature over 40.0°. 
 

La Niña Decembers with -AO lower than -2.000 and NYC average temperature 

2022….-2.719…38.5°

2010…..-2.631….32.8°

2005….-2.104…..35.3°

2000….-2.354….31.1°

1995…..-2.127….32.4°

 

All El Niño -AO Decembers and NYC average temperature 

2009….-3.413….35.9°

2002….-1.592….36.0°

1997…..-0.071…..38.2°

1987…..-0.534…..39.5°

1977…..-0.240…..35.6°

1976…..-2.074…..29.9°

1969…..-1.865…..33.4°

1968…..-0.783….34.2°

1963…..-1.178…..31.2°

1958……-1.687…..29.3°

 

Plenty cold in Russia, though...sucks that its all on the other side of the globe.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plenty cold in Russia, though...sucks that its all on the other side of the globe.

Erstwhile -AO didn't payout on our side of the hemisphere.   Happens.

I remember back in the hell autumn of 2006. Toward the end of that extraordinary warm run ( after Xmas of course...), the AO tanked.  But we stayed warm for a good two weeks. Eurasia got freak cold right away... Eventually the wave# spun around the axis and caught up with the America and we broke cold late in January... At least enough for the Valentines storm that February.  Not sure what happened after that cause I start tuning out on winters most years after about the 20th of February.

Anyway, -AO may unload unevenly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Erstwhile -AO didn't payout on our side of the hemisphere.   Happens.

I remember back in the hell autumn of 2006. Toward the end of that extraordinary warm run ( after Xmas of course...), the AO tanked.  But we stayed warm for a good two weeks. Eurasia got freak cold right away... Eventually the wave# spun around the axis and caught up with the America and we broke cold late in January... At least enough for the Valentines storm that February.  Not sure what happened after that cause I start tuning out on winters most years after about the 20th of February.

Anyway, -AO may unload unevenly.

We had a good event on St Paddy's Day....I had about a foot.

[griteater]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Waiting for an update from @GaWx..."Wow!! 17.3% of members -12.3 or lower, 15.4% at -11.5", etc lol

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plenty cold in Russia, though...sucks that its all on the other side of the globe.

Yeah, a continuation of the fall pattern of the only cold in the Northern Hemisphere lining up on the other side of the globe.

 

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plenty cold in Russia, though...sucks that its all on the other side of the globe.

Yall can't wait a few weeks?  Cold high pressure diving into SE Asia is usually a good launching point for processes that lead to cold east of the Rockies

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yall can't wait a few weeks?  Cold high pressure diving into SE Asia is usually a good launching point for processes that lead to cold east of the Rockies

I was speaking of the here and now. I feel I have been quite clear with respect to my thoughts on the balance of the season. 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I sure hope you have been saving these to see verification. See whether or not it is trying to dive too quick or if there is clustering in a specific time frame.

I absolutely have been saving a bunch of the Euro Weeklies SPV progs. I was the one repeatedly mentioning the can kicking that went on between the Nov 1 and 19th runs. Remember? After that, they suddenly got much more bullish about a weak SPV.

 In recent days, I’ve noticed not as weak of an SPV in early to mid Dec as in runs from a few days ago and in late Nov. We have to make sure this won’t turn out to be a mirage just like with all model progs for anything.

 Today’s isn’t as weak as the three prior runs of 45+% of members with major SSWs. Today it is ~38%. Also, the # of members with a sub -10 is only ~18%. That was way up at ~30% a couple of days ago.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I absolutely have been saving a bunch of the Euro Weeklies SPV progs. I was the one repeatedly mentioning the can kicking that went on between the Nov 1 and 19th runs. Remember? After that, they suddenly got much more bullish about a weak SPV.

 In recent days, I’ve noticed not as weak of an SPV in early to mid Dec as in runs from a few days ago and in late Nov. We have to make sure this won’t turn out to be a mirage just like with all model progs for anything.

 Today’s isn’t as weak as the three prior days.

Any trend in timing?

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Any trend in timing?

Not much. The heaviest concentration is early to mid Jan for a possible major SSW.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weekly for Jan 1-8 has about the strongest E US cold signal of any run yet (runs for Jan 1-8 go back nearly two weeks):

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weekly for Jan 1-8 has about the strongest E US cold signal of any run yet (runs for Jan 1-8 go back nearly two weeks):

All I ask is normal temps up here...you guys from DC sothward can have the Cold, where you need it more.

[GaWx]

 Nov: The NOAA PDO of -1.79 compares to the WCS PDO of ~-1.00. 

 Oct: The NOAA PDO of -2.26 compares to the WCS PDO of ~-1.10.

 So, the NOAA continue to be more negative though the gap narrowed a decent amount in Nov.

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

To get back on topic a bit here is the upcoming look at the WWB there is certainly something there.

Looks like a very strong WWB coming up, this event has most definitely not peaked yet. Here is an interesting perspective @bluewave might find this interesting too: