El Nino 2023-2024

[Terpeast]

8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? 

That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. 

As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think I saw one seasonal forecast that wasn't mild in December for the NE.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? 

That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. 

As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg

Phase 8 is warm in December into January during and El Niño. The most extreme example of this was January 1998.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

In order to do this Oct (1.72), Nov (2.02) (probably revised up a bit as the other months have had revisions slightly warmer than initially posted), Dec would have to attain a monthly mean of 2-2.1 (closer to 2.1 for rounding purposes) for the anomalies. If this does not occur and hits at 1.9 instead we cap at a 1.9 trimonthly. The next potential would then be kicked to January and that is anybody's guess at this point because a lot will depend on how things hold up this month. Overall though the difference of a trimonthly at 1.8 (currently seen) to 2 is not really all that different.

If we go by Eric Webb( or is it Webber) you need an ONI trimonthly of over 2C so essentially 2.1 would attain that Super call and in order to do that December would need to come in at nearly 2.4 with upticking Nov numbers to 2.1 so we could round it up to 2.1. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Im not so sure that happens especially with the chance of this WWB being a bit weaker than the last and not until the 15th -20th when it starts to make some impact on temps. Again if we end December at 2.1 we could attain the 2 mark and then it would be a try again in January but fools gold to know what will happen in January at this point.

I still think we peak at 1.9ONI.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? 

That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. 

As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg

Phase 8 and +GLAAM is typically associated with -EPO/+PNA out west....I agree it's not a warm pattern. There can be exceptions if you get a monster GOA low like 1997-1998 but I am not expecting that in this El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Phase 8 is warm in December into January during and El Niño. The most extreme example of this was January 1998.

Correct. 

It changes in February, which likely plays into el Nino climo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phase 8 and +GLAAM is typically associated with -EPO/+PNA out west....I agree it's not a warm pattern. There can be exceptions if you get a monster GOA low like 1997-1998 but I am not expecting that in this El Nino.

Well, it doesn't have to be warm, but its not a stock cold pattern like it is later in the season.

I  agree it shouldn't be too warm with the higher heights near AK all else equal...would be a welcome change.

 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can go back in time in this thread and others and find lengthy papers and studies refuting all the points you brought up. So it’s not my job to to the homework for you. 

Studies done by people like minded with you? No, I  know what a study looks like when the conclusion was written before the study was conducted  The fact is, all your post demonstrated was that ensemble forecasts at long leads are inaccurate and poorly forecast intensity of forcing. You want to turn it into something more. I'm done.

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it doesn't have to be warm, but its not a stock cold pattern like it is later in the season.

 

The last time we did 8-1-3 during an El Niño was in January 2016. While phase 8 was still warm early on, we did see big improvements when it got into 1-2-3 with the historic blizzard when the signal finally weakened after 3. I think the record east based warmth in January 1998 held the convection too long in 8 and didn’t allow a colder progression to 1-2-3. 
 

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How will Central Park ever make up that 7" deficit?

Statistically, if we don’t see at least an inch in NYC by the end of December the chances of an above normal snowfall season are slim.  We haven’t had an inch of snow since February 2022. 
 

For your area and sne, I can’t imagine punting one month of avg snowfall is helpful in reaching avg for the season. 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, it doesn't have to be warm, but its not a stock cold pattern like it is later in the season.

 

I was mostly talking about December....but even that said, what happens to that composite when you get rid of Super-charged ENSOs with monster GOA lows? That's kind of my point in this. Composites are nice, but when you start filtering for El Ninos, you can get some skew from one or two years because you're reducing sample size. Jan 2003 and the period around the Jan 2005 blizzard were phase 8 in El Ninos....total opposite of the 1998 example. Go check late January 2015 too.

I was going back checking phase 8 in December in El Nino and it's pretty uncommon (no surprise as Dec El Ninos tend to have those phase 4-7 a bit more common), but the last 3 occurrences are early Dec 2018 (cold pattern but missed out on snow), week 3 in Dec 2009 (HECS for Mid-Atlantic on 12/19-20), and early Dec 2002 (another snow event for the northeast). If you go back further, I'm sure you'll find some warm ones since you never bat 1.000 in meteorology.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Statistically, if we don’t see at least an inch in NYC by the end of December the chances of an above normal snowfall season are slim.  We haven’t had an inch of snow since February 2022. 
 

For your area and sne, I can’t imagine punting one month of avg snowfall is helpful in reaching avg for the season. 

Not concerned in the least.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was mostly talking about December....but even that said, what happens to that composite when you get rid of Super-charged ENSOs with monster GOA lows? That's kind of my point in this. Composites are nice, but when you start filtering for El Ninos, you can get some skew from one or two years because you're reducing sample size. Jan 2003 and the period around the Jan 2005 blizzard were phase 8 in El Ninos....total opposite of the 1998 example. Go check late January 2015 too.

I was going back checking phase 8 in December in El Nino and it's pretty uncommon (no surprise as Dec El Ninos tend to have those phase 4-7 a bit more common), but the last 3 occurrences are early Dec 2018 (cold pattern but missed out on snow), week 3 in Dec 2009 (HECS for Mid-Atlantic on 12/19-20), and early Dec 2002 (another snow event for the northeast). If you go back further, I'm sure you'll find some warm ones since you never bat 1.000 in meteorology.

Great point. We will not have that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@AllsnowA slow start makes a huge season less likely, which isn't expected, anyway....but if the season evolves remotely as anticipated, climo snowfall will not be a tall task.

Think about it...which is the snowiest ENSO state? El Nino....which is harshest in December? El Nino-

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@AllsnowA slow start makes a huge season less likely, which isn't expected, anyway....but if the season evolves remotely as anticipated, climo snowfall will not be a tall task.

Obviously, your area can snow in more hostile patterns then down in the mid Atlantic. 
 

I’m hopeful that we get a favorable 2-3 week window in this area (end of January into February) for something to help us get close to avg snowfall. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Obviously, your area can snow in more hostile patterns then down in the mid Atlantic. 
 

I’m hopeful that we get a favorable 2-3 week window in this area (end of January into February) for something to help us get close to avg snowfall. 

Right, but your area into the mid atl can achieve climo snowfall in one event. And it just so happens that the odds of such an event far exceed climo this year.  Even @bluewavewould attest to that.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, no slowing down this pac jet. Going to be several areas  way below avg in snowfall going into January 2024 

Seriously ? 

42 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

8-1-2 a warm signal over the EC in Dec-Jan? 

That’s news to me. I double checked the temp charts for each phase, and I’m seeing the opposite. 

As long as the MEI stays under 1.2, we should stay close to normal +/- 2 deg

That's news to me also. It's not warm at all.

[NEPASnow]

 

I know some people don't appreciate Steve Dimartino , but I wanted to get some posters on here opinions as well.

" We know that El Nino has shifted from an east-based to basin-wide in the past few weeks, but the subsurface anomalies suggest that this El Nino could shift further west over the next few weeks.  The warmest subsurface anomalies are pushing towards NINO 3.4 and NINO 4 for the first time in this El Nino event.  What catches my eye is that this warm water pool is several hundred meters deep, suggesting that future upwelling will produce equally warm temperature anomalies.  Meanwhile, the support for sustained anomalies over 1.5° in NINO 1+2 and NINO 3 is rapidly waning." 

[griteater]

Sometimes I feel like the Pacific Jet is the Rodney Dangerfield of weather forecasting.  We actually need an extended jet to get +PNA patterns.  -PNA is the opposite...it is associated with the Pac Jet being in a weakened state where it is retracted back to the W Pacific (red and blue contours on the image are the height anomalies),

Of course, there are other flavors.  If the jet extension runs poleward, then that does favor low pressure in AK...but the point is, the Pac Jet strengthening and extending shouldn't be binned as a bad thing in all cases for the eastern U.S.

Bouts of warmth here in mid-Dec has been pretty well expected.  I think the bigger questions come late Dec into early Jan

 

 

 

 

Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Statistically, if we don’t see at least an inch in NYC by the end of December the chances of an above normal snowfall season are slim.  We haven’t had an inch of snow since February 2022. 
 

For your area and sne, I can’t imagine punting one month of avg snowfall is helpful in reaching avg for the season. 

Somewhat OT but Central Park I thought got 2.3” in the 2/28/23 event. Maybe they got shafted by UHI since a degree or two difference that event meant white rain vs 4-6” of cement. 

[jm1220]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, but your area into the mid atl can achieve climo snowfall in one event. And it just so happens that the odds of such an event far exceed climo this year.  Even @bluewavewould attest to that.

I’m fine with a lousy pattern at this point, if there aren’t signs of a change by 1/15 I’ll get concerned then. 1982-83 had its huge snow event in Feb, 2015-16 in late Jan, 09-10 other than 12/19 lit up in Feb, 02-03 was big in Feb etc. I’d like a snow event in Dec of course but like you said we can get pretty close to average here with one monster (avg IMBY is about 35” so maybe to 2/3rds) And there was more here especially NYC on East after the record Jan 2016 event, there was also an event in Feb IMBY that was about 10”. 

In any event this winter can’t possibly be worse than last winter so there’s that too. I had the 5” on 2/28 which was gone in a day and besides that some dusting/coatings to an inch. 

[so_whats_happening]

38 minutes ago, griteater said:

Sometimes I feel like the Pacific Jet is the Rodney Dangerfield of weather forecasting.  We actually need an extended jet to get +PNA patterns.  -PNA is the opposite...it is associated with the Pac Jet being in a weakened state where it is retracted back to the W Pacific (red and blue contours on the image are the height anomalies),

Of course, there are other flavors.  If the jet extension runs poleward, then that does favor low pressure in AK...but the point is, the Pac Jet strengthening and extending shouldn't be binned as a bad thing in all cases for the eastern U.S.

Bouts of warmth here in mid-Dec has been pretty well expected.  I think the bigger questions come late Dec into early Jan

 

 

 

 

Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/Presentations 2017/08 NGGPS17_PImeeting_Bosart.pdf

If we can get cyclonic wave breaking occur im sure many will be happy with the results to come.

Unfortunately been a minute since i have seen how the Pacific has gone so cant say for sure where we are but if the pattern we have is an indication i would say we are still in the anticyclonic wave break pattern for now.

Oh and as always thanks for the link

[NEPASnow]

39 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

 

I know some people don't appreciate Steve Dimartino , but I wanted to get some posters on here opinions as well.

" We know that El Nino has shifted from an east-based to basin-wide in the past few weeks, but the subsurface anomalies suggest that this El Nino could shift further west over the next few weeks.  The warmest subsurface anomalies are pushing towards NINO 3.4 and NINO 4 for the first time in this El Nino event.  What catches my eye is that this warm water pool is several hundred meters deep, suggesting that future upwelling will produce equally warm temperature anomalies.  Meanwhile, the support for sustained anomalies over 1.5° in NINO 1+2 and NINO 3 is rapidly waning." 

helpful response snowman

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the main issues with the longer range model forecasts for the MJO beyond 10 days is that the ensembles weaken the convective signal too much. This is also true with the RMM charts. So some of the posts on twitter stating that the MJO will quickly weaken or progress to 8-1-2 are basing that on an an inherent model bias. So it’s no surprise that the convection in the warmer 4-7 phases this week is verifying more intense in the warm phases than the runs back in late November were indicating. This is one of the reasons ensemble forecasts have been correcting warmer for December than they were indicating later in November. So even if the MJO can eventually get over into phase 8 that is also a warmer signal from December into January.

New run

Old run

 

I wouldn’t bet on a combo of El Niño, WEAK (including inside the COD) 8/1/2/3 MJO, and a weak SPV being mild in the E US in winter. 

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Somewhat OT but Central Park I thought got 2.3” in the 2/28/23 event. Maybe they got shafted by UHI since a degree or two difference that event meant white rain vs 4-6” of cement. 

I believe it was .9 of an inch.   LGA/JFK had slightly more

[so_whats_happening]

Looking at MJO influence in a warm Enso the strong amplitudes tend to have slightest bit warmer look into the east during phase 8 for December but not major torch level.

Either way lets not get too hung up on it as this still looks to probably only be in maybe the last week of December and we still have some lag with MJO putting in work on the areas sensible weather.

Until then we see a relatively warm east and even SE which is about as expected as the sun rising in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

 

I know some people don't appreciate Steve Dimartino , but I wanted to get some posters on here opinions as well.

" We know that El Nino has shifted from an east-based to basin-wide in the past few weeks, but the subsurface anomalies suggest that this El Nino could shift further west over the next few weeks.  The warmest subsurface anomalies are pushing towards NINO 3.4 and NINO 4 for the first time in this El Nino event.  What catches my eye is that this warm water pool is several hundred meters deep, suggesting that future upwelling will produce equally warm temperature anomalies.  Meanwhile, the support for sustained anomalies over 1.5° in NINO 1+2 and NINO 3 is rapidly waning." 

Yea, el Nino may end as a Modoki, but I don't think it will make much difference. The pattern should be great in Feb, regardless and in the seasonal mean, I will still consider it as being basin-wide.

[NEPASnow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, el Nino may end as a Modoki, but I don't think it will make much difference. The pattern should be great in Feb, regardless and in the seasonal mean, I will still consider it as being basin-wide.

thanks for the constructive reply

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looking at MJO influence in a warm Enso the strong amplitudes tend to have slightest bit warmer look into the east during phase 8 for December but not major torch level.

Either way lets not get too hung up on it as this still looks to probably only be in maybe the last week of December and we still have some lag with MJO putting in work on the areas sensible weather.

Until then we see a relatively warm east and even SE which is about as expected as the sun rising in the east.

I’ve posted many examples of weak left side MJO during El Niño showing that this combo during winter is often cold in the E US, especially SE US-Mid Atlantic. And that’s not necessarily even requiring a weak SPV. Throw a weak SPV on top of this and then cold is even more favored.

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Dec 4th Euro Weeklies look similarly impressive with numerous EPS members (~45%, which is similar to prior two days) with major SSWs 12/28-1/18. A year ago (~12/31/22) the SPV was in stark contrast near a record high strength!

 Strongest SSWs:

~27% <-10 vs 25% prior run

8% <-20 vs 5% prior run

7% <-25 vs 3% prior run

5% <-30 vs 0% prior run
 

I sure hope you have been saving these to see verification. See whether or not it is trying to dive too quick or if there is clustering in a specific time frame.