El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

Both daily SST's of today:

 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Somewhat similar forcing location this December from the Maritime Continent to the Dateline as we saw during the super El Niño in 2015. So a very westward  lean to the forcing for an El Niño December. This is producing the forecast near record atmospheric river to start December into the Pacific Northwest.

 

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 10	Missing Count
1	2015-12-10	6.33	0
2	2007-12-10	5.69	0
3	1987-12-10	5.05	0
4	1970-12-10	4.68	0
5	1968-12-10	4.37	0
6	1989-12-10	4.10	0
7	1975-12-10	3.89	0
8	1956-12-10	3.46	0
9	1946-12-10	3.22	0

 

[snowman19]

Somewhat similar forcing location this December from the Maritime Continent to the Dateline as we saw during the super El Niño in 2015. So a very westward  lean to the forcing for an El Niño December. This is producing the forecast near record atmospheric river to start December into the Pacific Northwest.
 

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Dec 1 to Dec 10	Missing Count
1	2015-12-10	6.33	0
2	2007-12-10	5.69	0
3	1987-12-10	5.05	0
4	1970-12-10	4.68	0
5	1968-12-10	4.37	0
6	1989-12-10	4.10	0
7	1975-12-10	3.89	0
8	1956-12-10	3.46	0
9	1946-12-10	3.22	0

 

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well.

Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging.

Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well.

Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging.

Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are more a La Niña thing. So like in 15-16, the westward lean of the forcing in the MJO 4-7 range resulted in heavier rains displaced further north than usual for an El Nino. So a stronger northern branch of the jet stream. As you mentioned, this is probably why the PNA is struggling to stay positive in early December. Very warm December for much of North America when we have such a strong jet stream off the Pacific and and TPV with the -AO -NAO is located in Eurasia. The competing Nino and Niña-like influences are both warm. 

 

 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well.

Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging.

Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

You’ve been typing the same thing for 8 months and although 3.4 has obviously warmed, the atmosphere seems to continue to struggle to act like a strong Nino. I know you’re going to say it’s going start any day now but I remain skeptical. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well.

Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging.

Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

 

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest this time of year are more a La Niña thing. So like in 15-16, the westward lean of the forcing in the MJO 4-7 range resulted in heavier rains displaced further north than usual for an El Nino. So a stronger northern branch of the jet stream. As you mentioned, this is probably why the PNA is struggling to stay positive in early December. Very warm December for much of North America when we have such a strong jet stream off the Pacific and and TPV with the -AO -NAO is located in Eurasia. The competing Nino and Niña-like influences are both warm. 

 

 

Yup....the stronger northern stream was expected, which is why I think the NE will avoid the typical -PDO precip screw hole. This el Nino is a toned down version of 2015-2016, which we both always agreed on. A colder version of that winter with more blocking is fine by me. And yes, I am sure there will be periods of Maritime forcing and an active Pac jet to deal with, which is why it won't be cold in the DM mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Where do you think this area of anomalously excessive precip focused over northern Maine in association with the N stream would end up with a more neutral or negative PDO and significant degree of high latitude blocking?

It seems clear to me...

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like mid January may feature another thawing period of Maritime forcing while the pattern reloads for the grand finale at the end of the month and into February.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like a really strong MJO wave push into phase 7 right around mid-month. That’s when it constructively interferes and the typical El Niño convection should start firing on the equator along and east of the dateline in a big way. The models are showing a beast of a WWB (which should trigger another DWKW) developing around the same time, this almost certainly results in a substantial warming of region 3.4. We go strongly +AAM as well.

Good point about the jet…it’s screaming already. The STJ may prove to be a problem this winter, that’s the key element to watch…if we have a raging, firehose STJ blasting into the west coast, it’s going to flood PAC air into the CONUS and Canada and no amount of -AO/-NAO will help that. The arctic/Atlantic blocking would just trap maritime PAC air underneath. It would also prove problematic for +PNA….it would just crash right into the +PNA ridge pops, deamplify them and knock them right back down. Bottom line, if you want a cold pattern, pray that the STJ isn’t raging.

Also, looks like all the arctic air is going to be on the other side of the pole in Eurasia going into late month

I caution about attribution to El Niño with fast jets… We’ve been having fast jets due to gradient saturation for several years now, regardless 

[mitchnick]

How low can we go? Answer: lower than yesterday! Lol

Didn't want to steal your "baby" @GaWx, but I  couldn't believe how much it dropped.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How low can we go? Answer: lower than yesterday! Lol

Didn't want to steal your "baby" @GaWx, but I  couldn't believe how much it dropped.

Larry is going to put you in a headlock lol

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How low can we go? Answer: lower than yesterday! Lol

Didn't want to steal your "baby" @GaWx, but I  couldn't believe how much it dropped.

Timber

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

How low can we go? Answer: lower than yesterday! Lol

Didn't want to steal your "baby" @GaWx, but I  couldn't believe how much it dropped.

 Thanks for posting. The potential of a major SSW is every winter lover’s baby!

1. I roughly estimate that a whopping ~48-50% of these 101 EPS members have a major SSW (vs ~45-48% yesterday and ~38% two days ago) meaning the highest % yet! They occur 12/25-1/16 or ~3-6 weeks from now. I’d venture to guess that ever getting much more than 50% of members that far out is rare meaning I believe that this is just about as strong a signal for a major SSW as you’re going to get 3-6 weeks out.

 On Jan 13th, the EPS mean is a mere 15 m/s, vs climo of 35 m/s (similar to yesterday).

2. Although the # of major SSW members increased slightly, the # of extreme dropped some though still the #s are still significant:

-sub -10: ~25 vs ~30 yesterday

-sub -20: 5 vs 12 yesterday

-sub -25: 3 vs 8 yesterday

-sub -30: 0 vs 2 yesterday

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting. The potential of a major SSW is every winter lover’s baby!

1. I roughly estimate that a whopping ~48-50% of these 101 EPS members have a major SSW (vs ~45-48% yesterday and ~38% two days ago) meaning the highest % yet! They occur 12/25-1/16 or ~3-6 weeks from now. I’d venture to guess that ever getting much more than 50% of members that far out is rare meaning I believe that this is just about as strong a signal for a major SSW as you’re going to get 3-6 weeks out.

 On Jan 13th, the EPS mean is a mere 15 m/s, vs climo of 35 m/s (similar to yesterday).

2. Although the # of major SSW members increased slightly, the # of extreme dropped some though still the #s are still significant:

-sub -10: ~25 vs ~30 yesterday

-sub -20: 5 vs 12 yesterday

-sub -25: 3 vs 8 yesterday

-sub -30: 0 vs 2 yesterday

So if we get a ssw dec 25-jan 15, how long will it take to see the effects in the troposphere? Around late Jan or early Feb?

[Typhoon Tip]

evidence here of an STJ

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=truecolor

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

evidence here of an STJ
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=truecolor

Yep. That STJ signal is only going to get stronger over the next 4 weeks with the MJO wave coupling, big WWB, +AAM flip and strong Nino convection really starting to fire. The OHC is up to +1.65 and the subsurface warming from the DWKW has been extremely impressive. Think we are about to see an imminent major uptick in region 3.4 temps

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

So if we get a ssw dec 25-jan 15, how long will it take to see the effects in the troposphere? Around late Jan or early Feb?

No clearcut answer as the timing varies a lot and they sometimes don’t work their way well down into the troposphere or don’t always focus on the E US. Sometimes it is already cold in the E US because of an +PNA or cold MJO phase. And then sometimes like for last winter there’s a strong -PNA in place that mutes the cooling or delays it more. But keeping these caveats in mind, the rough average lag to see the start of the major effects is ~2 weeks afterward. So, that would mean a wild guess of a start between ~Jan 8th and Jan 29th, way earlier than the mainly mid March cooling from the 2/16/23 major SSW.

[GaWx]

OISST Nino 3.4 was down sharply in both of today’s updates: 

-WCS from +2.09 to +1.97

-cyclonicwx from +2.09 to +1.95

 

 The other three cyclonicwx regions also dropped and keeps 3.4 the warmest just ahead of 3.

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OISST Nino 3.4 was down sharply in both of today’s updates: 

-WCS from +2.09 to +1.97

-cyclonicwx from +2.09 to +1.95

 

 The other three cyclonicwx regions also dropped and keeps 3.4 the warmest just ahead of 3.

Probably not the end of it looking at the Oisst SSTA map and modeling showing continuing trades for around 7 days+. Cfs maps also attached are unimpressed with WWB showing future cooling. Of course, it's just 1 model.

 

[mitchnick]

For those in the east that want to see a winter, you probably couldn't put the max heat potential in a better spot.

[mitchnick]

Just in case anybody is interested, I  found these OLR maps from late January  and early February, 2010 in my desktop. I figure they might avoid some disagreement among memories as we get further along for comparisons. I  have a few more from early February if anyone wants me to post them.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

So if we get a ssw dec 25-jan 15, how long will it take to see the effects in the troposphere? Around late Jan or early Feb?

They actually vary at different times of the year.  In Nov, it takes 10mb 40-50 days to downwell, and in March, 10-15 days on average. Dec 25th the lag is 30 days, and Jan 15 the lag is 25 days, so that would make the Jan 25-Feb 10 period the highest likely to have -NAO. 

[snowman19]

Probably not the end of it looking at the Oisst SSTA map and modeling showing continuing trades for around 7 days+. Cfs maps also attached are unimpressed with WWB showing future cooling. Of course, it's just 1 model.
 

You are one of the people on the MJO 7, 8, 1, 2 train. If that actually happens then it has to warm more and trigger a WWB. It’s not going through those phases and cooling. You can’t have it both ways

[GaWx]

From EPS at 10 mb for 1/1-1/8:

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You are one of the people on the MJO 7, 8, 1, 2 train. If that actually happens then it has to warm more and trigger a WWB. It’s not going through those phases and cooling. You can’t have it both ways

I'm not on any train. I'm observing and posted actual conditions and 1 model's prog. Whether the MJO forcing makes it to 7-2 and what the consequences are remains to be seen. But there are other factors to the weather than the MJO. Moreover, the intensity and speed of the MJO passage will obviously have different effects on SSTA and weather.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Yup....the stronger northern stream was expected, which is why I think the NE will avoid the typical -PDO precip screw hole. This el Nino is a toned down version of 2015-2016, which we both always agreed on. A colder version of that winter with more blocking is fine by me. And yes, I am sure there will be periods of Maritime forcing and an active Pac jet to deal with, which is why it won't be cold in the DM mean.

Yeah, while the forcing is setting up in a very warm region for the Northeast this month, the waves are progressing eastward. So that enormous December 2015 standing wave which drove those ridiculous departures will be a tough act to follow. Unfortunately, even if we go +2.5 to +5.0 in portions of the Northeast this month like NYC metro,  that is against an already much warmer 91-20 climate normals. Plus it will continue the long term trend in December for places like NYC to average over 40° again. Regardless of ENSO state, the Decembers in the Northeast have been one of our fastest warming months. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, mitchnick said:

For those in the east that want to see a winter, you probably couldn't put the max heat potential in a better spot.

If we are being picky, I would like it a shade east.

[snowman19]

New CPC ENSO weekly update:

1+2: +2.0C
3: +2.0C
3.4: +2.0C
4: +1.7C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf