El Nino 2023-2024

[raindancewx]

100-180W Subsurface Heat

Year    Sept  /   Oct   / Nov
2018  +0.98 /  +1.47 / +1.25
2009  +0.76 /  +1.04 / +1.75
2006  +1.13 /  +0.80 / +1.35
Blnd   +0.96 /  +1.10 / +1.45
2023  +1.03 /  +1.13 / +1.50

Subsurface heat for November warmed up less than in Nov 2009. The blend is consistent with my 'dueling cold pocket' idea for the winter, with one in the South and one in the West.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

My winter outlook had a brief monthly peak around +2.0C at this time before rapid decay late winter. I still think that's the right idea. Canadian had La Nina conditions by late Spring on the new run.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It better for your prog to have any chance because it pales in comparison to the last one as of today.

Unmmm ok? Since region 3.4 is over +2.15C right now. The new WWB doesn’t have to be as strong as this last one, which was extremely strong, it pushed the +30C warm pool east of the dateline, triggered a massive DWKW that caused huge subsurface warming and a very big increase in the OHC. It won’t take much now to push region 3.4 to +2.4C on a weekly reading once the constructive interference from the MJO occurs since it literally has less than +0.3 to go 

@Mitchnick Why are you so worried that it may go officially trimonthly super ONI (which looks very likely) Mitch?

[GaWx]

Although not quite as weak in late Dec as some of the runs, this latest run has the weakest in the 1st half of Jan with a total of ~38% of members with a major SSW 12/23-1/16! ~20 go sub -10, ~16 go sub -15 and ~10 go to sub -20 (extremely weak). There are even 4 that go sub -25, among the weakest on record. These #s are all the highest yet. To compare, the major SSW of 2/17/23 went down to -13, which itself was quite notable.

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Unmmm ok? Since region 3.4 is over +2.15C right now. The new WWB doesn’t have to be as strong as this last one, which was extremely strong, it pushed the +30C warm pool east of the dateline, triggered a massive DWKW that caused huge subsurface warming and a very big increase in the OHC. It won’t take much now to push region 3.4 to +2.4C on a weekly reading once the constructive interference from the MJO occurs since it literally has less than +0.3 to go 

@Mitchnick Why are you so worried that it may go officially trimonthly super ONI (which looks very likely) Mitch?

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

[snowman19]

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol 

You really do take this seriously.  That's crazy. But you haven't addressed my point over trades cooling before the next burst. Those are the facts. 

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You really do take this seriously.  That's crazy. But you haven't addressed my point over trades cooling before the next burst. Those are the facts. 

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? Why are you so confident there is going to be this massive drop in SSTs? So you are predicting a very huge trade wind burst then I guess? I mean in fairness, you have been minimizing this event for months. I understand why you didn’t want to see this get as strong as it is now

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? Why are you so confident there is going to be this massive drop in SSTs? So you are predicting a very huge trade wind burst then I guess? I mean in fairness, you have been minimizing this event for months. I understand why you didn’t want to see this get as strong as it is.

One can predict future cooling and warming using the same model guidance used by everyone, you included. See attached. Trades are occurring right now. I  haven't predicted any huge or minimal cooling. I'm just pointing out what is actually occurring and what is being predicted in the near future (next 10 days, give or take.)

I  have a different perspective on this than you. This was supposed to have been +2C or more months ago, so I  don't buy all those predictions from failed models and twitter forecasters. Even you admitted the other day it has failed to warm as fast as you predicted.  Now, it's finally warmed to what it was supposed to have been months ago, but the problem is one of time as to whether there's enough of it to allow it to reach at least a +2C trimonthly. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t.  Either way, it'll be close but won't make a difference weatherwise at this point. So like I  said, it's all sport now. But because of the delay in reaching +2C, temps can't afford setbacks, even short term ones, like what the attached show. That's why I post them.

If you want to take my posts for anything more than that, that's your decision. 

 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It won’t take much now to push region 3.4 to +2.4C on a weekly reading once the constructive interference from the MJO occurs since it literally has less than +0.3 to go 

I agree with you on this. It also goes to what I have been saying about the stronger MJO 4-7 with the rapidly warming WPAC as the IOD fades. The reason the models are starting to converge on a warmer solution for December is how strong the MJO 6-7 VP anomalies are forecast to get in the next few weeks. The MJO moving to the Dateline could constructively interfere with the El Niño strengthening it further. Just look at how strong the VP anomalies and WWB are forecast to be. This is why I don’t think the RMM charts will adequately show the strength of this MJO wave. MJO 7 is one of the warmest phases during and El Niño. When you include the lag which take up to 7 days per MJO phase this is why the models have the warmth persisting into so long into mid to late December. The chart below is courtesy of Allsnow who posted it in the NYC forum. My guess is that when the Euro monthly updates on Tuesday, it will have a strong MJO 6-7 look for December. 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Between now and the next burst, you have trades with cooling taking place per attached map. I'm not worried. There's no difference in weather +/- .25C imho and there's nothing we can do about it if there was. I'm just here for the sport of it. Why are you so paranoid about those who disagree with you?

You have been on a mission to prove that this is not going to be a super event for months. Like it’s some boogey man that you’re terrified to see. I don’t think the paranoia lies with me lol 

But you have been on a mission to prove this IS going to be super lol.

[jbenedet]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I agree with you on this. It also goes to what I have been saying about the stronger MJO 4-7 with the rapidly warming WPAC as the IOD fades. The reason the models are starting to converge on a warmer solution for December is how strong the MJO 6-7 VP anomalies are forecast to get in the next few weeks. The MJO moving to the Dateline could constructively interfere with the El Niño strengthening it further. Just look at how strong the VP anomalies and WWB are forecast to be. This is why I don’t think the RMM charts will adequately show the strength of this MJO wave. MJO 7 is one of the warmest phases during and El Niño. When you include the lag which take up to 7 days per MJO phase this is why the models have the warmth persisting into so long into mid to late December. The chart below is courtesy of Allsnow who posted it in the NYC forum. My guess is that when the Euro monthly updates on Tuesday, it will have a strong MJO 6-7 look for December. 

 

 

 

I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range.

As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.

 

 

[GaWx]

 OTOH, these MJO progs for late Dec suggesting weak left side MJO for then and extending well into Jan and when also considering El Niño and the weak SPV progs, tell me that the possibility of a cold E US overall and even moreso in the SE US in particular is there based on many analogs that I’ve posted showing MJO/E US temps: these end Dec moving slowly in weak 8 and likely would then go slowly into weak 1 followed by weak 2, a recipe during El Niño based on analogs for a multi week dominated cold E US

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range.

As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.

 

 

@bluewave has posted this and I’m on the same train of thought…

 

The mjo isn’t going to race through p4-7 and with traditional lag it could be until January when we see more of a pac reshuffle. I wouldn’t be shocked if the 2nd half of December is warmer then the 1st half if -nao fades. 

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? Why are you so confident there is going to be this massive drop in SSTs? So you are predicting a very huge trade wind burst then I guess? I mean in fairness, you have been minimizing this event for months. I understand why you didn’t want to see this get as strong as it is now

 

Even Roundy says there will be some brief cooling.

[GaWx]

Per this GEFS prog mean, the 12/1-16 AO may end up the 2nd lowest to 2022 back to 1950. The only others that were sub -2 were 2009 and 1985. So, only 3 sub -2 back to 1950 with 2023 progged by GEFS to become only the 4th:

[frd]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per this GEFS prog mean, the 12/1-16 AO may end up the 2nd lowest to 2022 back to 1950. The only others that were sub -2 were 2009 and 1985. So, only 3 sub -2 back to 1950 with 2023 progged by GEFS to become only the 4th:

Last year we had an extreme - AO and a extreme - NAO that resulted in no snow for my region. The 
Pac is king in my opinion  Even Don S thought we would be getting a huge snow event along with Bluewave, and nothing ever happened of consequence. 

The extreme - AO  is normally a great indocator of snow potential, but recently that indice has not held to its historical importance and value when predicting a window for a SECS.   

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Last year we had an extreme - AO and a extreme - NAO that resulted in no snow for my region. The 
Pac is king in my opinion  Even Don S thought we would be getting a huge snow event along with Bluewave, and nothing ever happened of consequence. 

The extreme - AO  is normally a great indocator of snow potential, but recently that indice has not held to its historical importance and value when predicting a window for a SECS.   

But big diffs

-we're in El Nino (favor PNA) vs 2022's La Nina, which favors -PNA

-there was record strong SPV late Dec 2022 vs progs for weak SPV late Dec 2023

-mid to late Dec was in warm MJO; then much of Jan-Feb was in strong often right sided MJO vs progs for weak left sided MJO late Dec into Jan

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Per this GEFS prog mean, the 12/1-16 AO may end up the 2nd lowest to 2022 back to 1950. The only others that were sub -2 were 2009 and 1985. So, only 3 sub -2 back to 1950 with 2023 progged by GEFS to become only the 4th:

 More on the above. 2022, 2009, and 1985 were the only sub -2 AO 12/1-16, where 2023 is possibly headed. The most -AO winters in order were 2009-10, 1976-7, 1968-9, 1962-3, 1969-70, and 1985-6. So, 2 of the 3 most -AO 12/1-16 ended up within top 6 most -AO winters of 73 winters! Only 2022-3 didn’t. Of those 6, only 1962-3 and 1985-6 weren’t Nino but they were neutral. 2022-3 was a solid Niña. Not being La Niña and being El Niño changes things tremendously. Despite difficulty in getting -NAO winters since 1979, -AO winters haven’t been overly tough and this along with progs for weak SPV for at least first half of winter tell me that a -AO winter is now looking likely. Don’t know if that would drag the rare winter -NAO along with it, but that sure would increase its chances.

[KChuck]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How can I give my opinion on a hypothetical cooling you are hoping for that hasn’t even happened yet? 

All discussions over weather technically deal with things that haven't even happened yet. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

But big diffs

-we're in El Nino (favor PNA) vs 2022's La Nina, which favors -PNA

-there was record strong SPV late Dec 2022 vs progs for weak SPV late Dec 2023

-mid to late Dec was in warm MJO; then much of Jan-Feb was in strong often right sided MJO vs progs for weak left sided MJO late Dec into Jan

Good post

People are still worried about what happened last winter despite being a different regime .

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range.

As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.

When you mean NA warmth, are you referring to above normal air temperatures?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Good post

People are still worried about what happened last winter despite being a different regime .

Actually, we had a strong -PNA Dec 10-18 each of the last two years. 

https://ibb.co/FmP0kb1

https://ibb.co/DQcP131

Current models have the -PNA again for Dec 10-18 this year.. this tendency toward continuum despite El Nino makes me think again we don't blow out February with +PNA, like a lot of people/models think

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Good post

People are still worried about what happened last winter despite being a different regime .

As you said in another thread...it's fear because of last year and the 4-5 years prior. So those posts are more emotion than science...and the inherent unknowns of the winter simply because it's just Dec 2nd leave a gap of speculation, lol

[snowman19]

I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range.
As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.
 
 

The PAC “wakes up” in a very big way real soon…constructive MJO interference/WWB/+AAM….should lead to rapid intensification and warming

[GaWx]

Wow! The chance for a major, and possibly even an extreme SSW in early Jan is even higher! On Jan 9th, the EPS mean of 101 members shows a mere 14 m/s vs climo way up at 35! There are so many members with a major SSW that it will be tough to count! This appears to be at a whopping 45%+ for a major, easily the highest yet beating yesterdays ~38%. Dates are from 12/25 through 1/16. This has ~~30% of the 101 members down to sub -10 m/s (vs 20 in prior run), 12 sub -20 (vs 10 in prior), 8 sub -25 (vs 4 in prior), and 2 sub -30 (vs none in prior):
 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Wow! The chance for a major, and possibly even an extreme SSW in early Jan is even higher! On Jan 9th, the EPS mean of 101 members shows a mere 14 m/s vs climo way up at 35! There are so many members with a major SSW that it will be tough to count! This appears to be at 45%+ for a major, easily the highest yet beating yesterdays ~38%.

10mb Correlation to 500mb -NAO around Jan 9th is ~+25 days, so that would favor -NAO centered on Feb 3. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Wow! The chance for a major, and possibly even an extreme SSW in early Jan is even higher! On Jan 9th, the EPS mean of 101 members shows a mere 14 m/s vs climo way up at 35! There are so many members with a major SSW that it will be tough to count! This appears to be at a whopping 45%+ for a major, easily the highest yet beating yesterdays ~38%. Dates are from 12/25 through 1/16. This has ~~30% of the 101 members down to sub -10 m/s (vs 20 in prior run), 12 sub -20 (vs 10 in prior), 8 sub -25 (vs 4 in prior), and 2 sub -30 (vs none in prior):
 

I had my mind made up on a 12/25 to 1/8 SSW back in August, when I did my solar research and looked at el Nino SSW analogs. 

Believe.

Why is a warm December news again? Why are people acting like this is a some shocking development?  Yea, a warm December in an el Nino....go figure, must be CC.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

10mb Correlation to 500mb -NAO around Jan 9th is ~+25 days, so that would favor -NAO centered on Feb 3. 

The thing is that the PV is starting weaker than last year and the -NAO is already prevalent, so it may not take foreever and day reap benefits.

[George001]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had my mind made up on a 12/25 to 1/8 SSW back in August, when I did my solar research and looked at el Nino SSW analogs. 

Believe.

Why is a warm December news again? Why are people acting like this is a some shocking development?  Yea, a warm December in an el Nino....go figure, must be CC.

 

Yep, that’s the way it goes in El Niño. In La Nina’s, you lose February. In Ninos, you lose December. The timeframe I am hearing on several sub forums is late Dec-early Jan. If we get skunked in early Jan and there is nothing on the horizon, then it’s time to panic and call for a ratter. We won’t truly know until then what this winter is made of. 

[raindancewx]

Here is current snow across the US -

Going to take a little while to fill in with the warmth coming this month. November was remarkably dry actually, on a national basis, although you can sort of see where the storm track was. Fairly consistent track of storms from Reno to Brownsville and then east to Florida.

I've mostly been skeptical of a lot of snow in the Northeast on a precipitation basis for winter, rather than temps. That weird island of deep red right over Boston makes no sense to me. But it was there when I did my analogs for the winter too if you go back and look at my outlook.

The CPC outlook for mid-month today is essentially the warm WPO composite. In a lot of ways, I think the WPO almost never going negative is the real culprit for a lot of the "lock in" of patterns in recent years. It doesn't look like it responded as directly to the MJO 4/5/6 looks in the older days. CPC has the EPO correlated most strongly to the TNI in December (trans nino index, essentially 1.2 v. 4), so the warm look coming is a good reminder we're not in a Modoki setup. Or even close to it really.

Just not enough cold around to match December 2009. Never been a fan of that year for the core winter. It'll get better as an analog again in March, maybe late February when this event begins to collapse from east to west.