El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We know this month that the El Niño hasn’t been strong enough to shut down forcing in the warmer MJO 4-7 regions. Beyond this month, it will be a wait and see approach. But even if the forcing shifts over closer to the Dateline and stays there, the record SSTs could easily boost the VP anomalies enough to give us a warm Nino pattern. The SSTs in Nino 4 are close to 15-16 right now. So this isn’t some weak modoki signal like years past with much cooler Nino 4 temperatures. The reason I mention a +2 to +3 average departure in the Northeast is because +2.9 has been the average departure in the Northeast last 8 seasons. Plus it’s nearly impossible to pick out an exact departure ahead of time. Just that based on what I am seeing now the, places like NYC and maybe the entire Northeast have a shot at a record 9th warmer than average winter in a row. Notice aI am not taking the leap which you did mentioning permanent. Since I make the distinction between loading the dice for more frequent warmth but variability always holds the potential for a colder winter emerging here and there. It’s just that I am not sure what a colder signal would look like before the season to be confident enough to forecast a cold winter. Our eventual next cold winter May just be a surprise that  we have to deconstruct the hoes and why’s when the season is over.

Who said it was going to "shut down" forcing in those regions? Are el Nino seasons supposed to be devoid of Maritime forcing? I have never argued that...we were in the west PAC phases during November, so we are not "shut down" there, either. As far as the warmth in region 4, again, no one is forecasting a cold season, so why are you bringing up weak Modoki years? All I am saying is that the position near the dateline will keep the warmth in check and give us wintery periods.

[griteater]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We know this month that the El Niño hasn’t been strong enough to shut down forcing in the warmer MJO 4-7 regions. Beyond this month, it will be a wait and see approach. But even if the forcing shifts over closer to the Dateline and stays there, the record SSTs could easily boost the VP anomalies enough to give us a warm Nino pattern. The SSTs in Nino 4 are close to 15-16 right now. So this isn’t some weak modoki signal like years past with much cooler Nino 4 temperatures. The reason I mention a +2 to +3 average departure in the Northeast is because +2.9 has been the average departure in the Northeast last 8 seasons. Plus it’s nearly impossible to pick out an exact departure ahead of time. Just that based on what I am seeing now the, places like NYC and maybe the entire Northeast have a shot at a record 9th warmer than average winter in a row. Notice aI am not taking the leap which you did mentioning permanent. Since I make the distinction between loading the dice for more frequent warmth but variability always holds the potential for a colder winter emerging here and there. It’s just that I am not sure what a colder signal would look like before the season to be confident enough to forecast a cold winter. Our eventual next cold winter May just be a surprise that  we have to deconstruct the hoes and why’s when the season is over.

To completely shut down MJO phases though is a pretty tall task for any ENSO state.  Feb '83 had MJO go thru 2-3-4-5-6-7.  Feb '92 had MJO go thru 2-3-4

 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who said it was going to "shut down" forcing in those regions? Are el Nino seasons supposed to be devoid of Maritime forcing? I have never argued that...we were in the west PAC phases during November, so we are not "shut down" there, either. As far as the warmth in region 4, again, no one is forecasting a cold season, so why are you bringing up weak Modoki years? All I am saying is that the position near the dateline will keep the warmth in check and give us wintery periods.

the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8

I swear, a few of the folks on here could use some Dialectical Behavioral Therapy to promote more nuanced thought patterns.

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8

How often is the NE colder than normal and actually had snow when we are in "bad" phases?  Are there any charts for that?  I'm sure it will take some research if not.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

To completely shut down MJO phases though is a pretty tall task for any ENSO state.  Feb '83 had MJO go thru 2-3-4-5-6-7.  Feb '92 had MJO go thru 2-3-4

 

Those were much weaker MJOs through the warm phases than we have seen since 15-16 with El Niños. We never saw MJO 4-6 as strong as 15-16 before with such a strong El Nino. In the old days, stronger MJO 4-6 activity was nonexistent in stronger El Niño’s like we have now. There were several posts in this thread a while back that said that the IOD would shut down the MJO 4-6 phases and it would be nothing to worry about. But I pointed out that there would be a rapid rebound in the WPAC SSTs that we are seeing now.
 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

This research highlights that climatologists should consider the SST anomaly distribution of super El Niño events for future MJO activity studies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those were much weaker MJOs through the warm phases than we have seen since 15-16 with El Niños. We never saw MJO 4-6 as strong as 15-16 before with such a strong El Nino. In the old days, stronger MJO 4-6 activity was nonexistent in stronger El Niño’s like we have now. There were several posts in this thread a while back that said that the IOD would shut down the MJO 4-6 phases and it would be nothing to worry about. But I pointed out that there would be a rapid rebound in the WPAC SSTs that we are seeing now.
 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

This research highlights that climatologists should consider the SST anomaly distribution of super El Niño events for future MJO activity studies.

Well, the IOD is rapidly weaking now FWIW...but I never said that, though I do recall it being said.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, a supbar month of December during el Nino is certainly nothing new.

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the IOD is rapidly weaking now FWIW...but I never said that, though I do recall it being said.

This has the +IOD maintaining

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

This has the +IOD maintaining

Okay, well regardless, the idea that it would prevent the MJO from entering the Maratime phases was wrong.

[mitchnick]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those were much weaker MJOs through the warm phases than we have seen since 15-16 with El Niños. We never saw MJO 4-6 as strong as 15-16 before with such a strong El Nino. In the old days, stronger MJO 4-6 activity was nonexistent in stronger El Niño’s like we have now. There were several posts in this thread a while back that said that the IOD would shut down the MJO 4-6 phases and it would be nothing to worry about. But I pointed out that there would be a rapid rebound in the WPAC SSTs that we are seeing now.
 

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

 

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

This research highlights that climatologists should consider the SST anomaly distribution of super El Niño events for future MJO activity studies.

Ssta and "and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." Do you know exactly what they are this year and exactly how they compare to 15/16 because it doesn't state the relative level of impact of Ssta and those "...associated background thermodynamic conditions?"

[so_whats_happening]

Gonna throw some fuel on the fire lol

[so_whats_happening]

Also here are years in reference around similar dates. I can only do monthly before 1989 as TAO does not support the timeframe before that.

[George001]

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded. 

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded. 

Looks like we stepped into warm phases briefly in early January and mid to late March that year. Tried to set it up in about 20 day increments.

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Looks like we stepped into warm phases briefly in early January and mid to late March that year. Tried to set it up in about 20 day increments.

December as a whole seemed to feature a -WPO pattern which is usually pretty good for the eastern US with Greenland blocking. We swung low amplitude that December through 4-5-6.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[griteater]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t understand how unfavorable MJO states are inherently a Nina pattern, and also why is a Nina pattern inherently bad? The MEI averaged -1.9 for Dec 2010-Jan 2011, and the trimonthly ONI for NDJ was -1.6. That was a well coupled strong La Niña, yet it was still a very cold and snowy winter in New England. Historically, Ninos (especially stronger ones and ones with significant nino 4 warming) are mild in December, and Ninas are colder and snowier. Ninos tend to be more backloaded. 

On your first question, stock La Nina forcing and 'unfavorable' MJO states both equal enhanced convection in the Maritime Continent (MC).  This is a simple graphic (from Paul Roundy by the way) showing how MC convection typically leads to a -PNA pattern (not shown, but +EPO is common too).

 

Here is the El Nino graphic

 

As for 2010-2011, the MJO / tropical forcing doesn't run everything.  The Greenland Block in December 2010 was absurd (there was one day in Dec that year where the AO was one of lowest values ever), and it just overpowered the -PNA look along the west coast

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, griteater said:

On your first question, stock La Nina forcing and 'unfavorable' MJO states both equal enhanced convection in the Maritime Continent (MC).  This is a simple graphic (from Paul Roundy by the way) showing how MC convection typically leads to a -PNA pattern (not shown, but +EPO is common too).

 

Here is the El Nino graphic

 

As for 2010-2011, the MJO / tropical forcing doesn't run everything.  The Greenland Block in December 2010 was absurd (there was one day in Dec that year where the AO was one of lowest values ever), and it just overpowered the -PNA look along the west coast

 

We should see a block like that this year IMO. I know Chris would argue it has to be displaced southward now since 2015, so lets get that out of the way.

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should see a block like that this year IMO. I know Chris would argue it has to be displaced southward now since 2015, so lets get that out of the way.

Well dang, you are going Barry Bonds hit in the bay right there 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well dang, you are going Barry Bonds hit in the bay right there 

Maybe we don't cash in on it....depends on how it breaks, but we should see some big blocks IMO.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe we don't cash in on it....depends on how it breaks, but we should see some big blocks IMO.

I agree. Below are monthly AO averages following Novembers where the AO fell to -2.500 or below during the last week of the month, as happened this year.

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 has warmed again on OISST…up to +2.15C

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should see a block like that this year IMO. I know Chris would argue it has to be displaced southward now since 2015, so lets get that out of the way.

There were two things at work last December. First, the block couldn’t retrograde sufficiently far enough west to boost the PNA like it did in 2010. Second, the Gulf Stream was much warmer last December than in 2010 which probably helped the block build further south than normal. 
 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There were two things at work last December. First, the block couldn’t retrograde sufficiently far enough west to boost the PNA like it did in 2010. Second, the Gulf Stream was much warmer last December than in 2010 which probably helped the block build further south than normal. 
 

 

 

 

I  don't see how you can reach any such conclusions without looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, if not the entire globe. Even then, your 2nd point is just your opinion/speculation. 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I  don't see how you can reach any such conclusions without looking at the entire Northern Hemisphere, if not the entire globe. Even then, your 2nd point is just your opinion/speculation. 

The one antidote to a south based block is a +PNA like we got in December 2020. But the more tucked in storm track near ACY due to the south based block produced 40” in Binghamton instead of Boston. 
 

 

[snowman19]

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

Well, good, apparently that may save winter.

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

Great news

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The forecasted WWB for mid-late month is getting stronger and stronger on the new model guidance…

It better for your prog to have any chance because it pales in comparison to the last one as of today.

[stadiumwave]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like he has done a better job of being a bit more objective. 

 

He just trolls winter lovers every now & then but he's usually actually targeting JB.