El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

George, that was actually good analysis......very objective and level-headed....be skeptical of colder evolutions until the jet slows...all blocking does is prevent December 2015 and keep the warmth from being absolutely prohibitive to threats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

SSW between Xmas and 1/8.

[raindancewx]

Ladies and Gentleman, MJO phase five. Is it right? Who knows? But it makes sense conceptually. November and October were pretty shitty forecasts though in retrospect from the Canadian.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, the tone of the update  is to simply imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blocking. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.

Cold air will be in the other side of the pole all month, we are blocking PAC air, go warm 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I see the urals ridging and the passing through of 4-7 in the mjo. I woukd push it toward closer to mid january but thats just me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Cold air will be in the other side of the pole all month, we are blocking PAC air, go warm 

More like don't "don't go cold"....

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

I see the urals ridging and the passing through of 4-7 in the mjo. I woukd push it toward closer to mid january but thats just me.

Yea, I could see that....like 1987, which is also a good analog, but I select two week windows of time, so still would be a pretty good call from that lead time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Ladies and Gentleman, MJO phase five. Is it right? Who knows? But it makes sense conceptually. November and October were pretty shitty forecasts though in retrospect from the Canadian.

This is essentially what I went with...even if the slightly colder risk wins out, it shouldn't be too far off....CPC is on the same page, as well.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Opposed to the later CFS with more blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the Canadian is wrong for January with the loss of the blocking, but there should be a thaw, so maybe that skews things if its long enough and timed correctly.

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

That thread is golden!! Really a great educated explanation of where things are more than likely moving! 

I scratch my head as to why @snowman19only posts certain tweets of Eric's.

@snowman19I'm just messing with you! Ha!

[DarkSharkWX]

woah , nino 4 at 1.9 rn, might beat all time nino 4 record

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

That thread is golden!! Really a great educated explanation of where things are more than likely moving! 

I scratch my head as to why @snowman19only posts certain tweets of Eric's.

@snowman19I'm just messing with you! Ha!

I feel like he has done a better job of being a bit more objective. 

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the Canadian is wrong for January with the loss of the blocking, but there should be a thaw, so maybe that skews things if its long enough and timed correctly.

Well we're starting off December hear near 60 for Saturday and several days of 50s so I'd say the warmth wins out bigly. 

Not Dec 2015 type warmth mind you but plenty warm. 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfectly stated...Paul approached this with an archaic frame of mind...doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't brilliant, but rather human like the rest of us. That said, it doesn't mean wall-to-wall cold and snow, either. I agree with you that there will be some bouts of Maritime forcing.

Yeah, just pointing out a different evolution than 97-98 doesn’t mean necessarily a colder winter. The 97-98 winter had east based forcing. But we had very strong forcing near the Dateline in 15-16 and it was a warmer winter for us than 97-98. Plus last winter we had very persistent forcing in MJO 4-6 and it too was warmer than 97-98. Not saying this winter will be as warm as 15-16 or 22-23, but  if forcing is strong and persistent enough in the MJO 4-7 regions and Nino 4, the risks are warmer than average and not colder. To what extent remains to be seen. We are currently seeing Nino 4 SSTs approach 15-16 levels. And the WPAC warm pool in the MJO 4-7 regions is also the warmest on record for and El Niño.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well we're starting off December hear near 60 for Saturday and several days of 50s so I'd say the warmth wins out bigly. 

Not Dec 2015 type warmth mind you but plenty warm. 

Well, first of all, whether or not the warmth wins out "bigly" in December has nothing to do with the degree of blocking in January. Secondly, the idea that blocking already exists BEFORE any PV disruption is also supportive of the notion that January will not feature a dearth of blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, just pointing out a different evolution than 97-98 doesn’t mean necessarily a colder winter. The 97-98 winter had east based forcing. But we had very strong forcing near the Dateline in 15-16 and it was a warmer winter for us than 97-98. Plus last winter we had very persistent forcing in MJO 4-6 and it too was warmer than 97-98. Not saying this winter will be as warm as 15-16 or 22-23, but  if forcing is strong and persistent enough in the MJO 4-7 regions and Nino 4, the risks are warmer than average and not colder. To what extent remains to be seen. We are currently seeing Nino 4 SSTs approach 15-16 levels. And the WPAC warm pool in the MJO 4-7 regions is also the warmest on record for and El Niño.

Warmer than average in the DM mean is expected, but I will confidently say this will not be as warm as 2015.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand that the warmest region 4 reading on record implies that one should proceed with caution as far as any negative temp departures this winter, but folks can not keep ignoring how paltry the MEI and RONI values are....this is a reflection of how much weaker the Pacific dipole is this year relative to 2015. Stop ignoring that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that the warmest region 4 reading on record implies that one should proceed with caution as far as any negative temp departures this winter, but folks can not keep ignoring how paltry the MEI and RONI values are....this is a reflection of how much weaker the Pacific dipole is this year relative to 2015. Stop ignoring that.

A weaker MEI isn’t such a great thing if it just means more forcing in MJO 4-7 or Niña influence like we are seeing now. We just swap out or combine 2 different forcing regions which are warm. Remember, doesn’t have to get anywhere near as warm as 15-16 to still be a warmer winter. We actually probably want a higher MEI to ensure that the warmer MJO 4-6 phases don’t interfere with the usual backloaded El Niño effect later in the winter. Hopefully, something resembling a backloaded El Niño emerges at least for snowfall prospects. Last winter 22-23 had the same average temperatures in the Northeast as 15-16. Both had strong forcing in slightly different warm regions for us. So while it would be tough to have two winters in a row so warm after last year, even half the departures of 22-23 and 15-16 would still be a warmer winter for us. Considering that we went +5 last winter in the Northeast against the warmer 91-20 means the same as the +5 in 15-16. So even a +2 to +3 winter this year would still be mild. So while the warmth in the WPAC to the Dateline is a warm signal, it’s always a wait and see approach what the exact warm departure will be.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A weaker MEI isn’t such a great thing if it just means more forcing in MJO 4-7 or Niña influence like we are seeing now. We just swap out or combine 2 different forcing regions which are warm. Remember, doesn’t have to get anywhere near as warm as 15-16 to still be a warmer winter. We actually probably want a higher MEI to ensure that the warmer MJO 4-6 phases don’t interfere with the usual backloaded El Niño effect later in the winter. Hopefully, something resembling a backloaded El Niño emerges at least for snowfall prospects. Last winter 22-23 had the same average temperatures in the Northeast as 15-16. Both had strong forcing in slightly different warm regions for us. So while it would be tough to have winters in a row so warm, even half the departures of 22-23 and 15-16 would still be a warmer winter for us. 

There isn't any data that will alleviate your concerns because you feel as though milder phases will be prevalent for the foreseeable future due to CC. What I do know is that lower MEI years offer much greater potential for cold and snow than higher MEI years and this is not debatable. Its also a fact that years with forcing INVO the dateline offer greater potential for cold and snow.

Based on this and the fact that we are not yet in the descending phase of the solar cycle, I will take my chances on the degree of DM warmth not being prohibitive of decent snowfall.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There isn't any data that will alleviate your concerns because you feel as though milder phases will be prevalent for the foreseeable future due to CC. What I do know is that lower MEI years offer much greater potential for cold and snow than higher MEI years and this is not debatable. Its also a fact that years with forcing INVO the dateline offer greater potential for cold and snow.

It isn’t about what I feel. It’s what the data has been indicating. Again terms like foreseeable future on your part is taking a leap which I have not advocated for. Talking about the here and now with the record +30C warm pool from the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. So we have to take each winter one at a time. Don’t have any info yet about next winter or the winter after that which match your foreseeable future statement. But we do now that the warmth in those regions has been a significant player over the last decade. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It isn’t about what I feel. It’s what the data has been indicating. Again terms like foreseeable future on your part is taking a leap which I have not advocated for. Talking about the here and now with the record +30C warm pool from the Dateline to the Maritime Continent. So we have to take each winter one at a time. Don’t have any info yet about next winter or the winter after that which match your foreseeable future statement. But we do now that the warmth in those regions has been a significant player over the last decade. 

It is about how you feel because it impacts how you perceive the data. I am of the opinion that the el Nino will be of sufficient intensity to move the forcing out of the Maritime region. You argue that we need better coupled el Nino to accomplish this, then in the same breath reference the magnitude of warmth in 2015, which was an extremely coupled event. I interpret the data as having forcing displaced to the west, closer to the dateline, than would normally be expected an el Nino with this type of evolution. You interpret it as indicating that this el Nino will essentially act like a La Nina and favor the Maritime forcing. I do not agree, as there has never been a significant el Nino that has done that....you can argue 1972, to which I would respond that descending solar fostered a dramatically different polar domain, which is evident in 1965. I am sure you will say that -NAO will not be as effective now because the block will be too far south.....frankly, I don't care to argue this anymore. We disagree and we'll see what happens.

[griteater]

Why is warmth in Nino 4 viewed as a bad thing?  Scandi-Urals ridge with NE Siberia Low in December (Strat Warming).  +PNA / -AO in Jan/Feb

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

Why is warmth in Nino 4 viewed as a bad thing?  Scandi-Urals ridge with NE Siberia Low in December (Strat Warming).  +PNA / -AO in Jan/Feb

Chris is a very intelligent dude....no doubt. I respect his opinions, but there is no data that is going to change anyone's mind at this point because we have all been obsessing over it for several months....what else can possibly be presented? At this point, I think we just need to agree to disagree with those whom we do not see eye to eye and reevaluate the new "data" that results from this winter.

[griteater]

Regarding the MJO getting bogged down in the Maritime Continent, I have good confidence that's not going to happen in this upcoming circuit, and that's a good sign compared with what happened in Dec 2015.  We'll have to see what happens going forward as there may be more resistance once the +IOD breaks down

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I recall raindance correlating Nino 4 warmth to warmer outcomes, too, but lets just see what happens. We have posted enough schematics at this point to rest easy knowing that we've been exhaustively exhaustive in our efforts. Time to let the atmosphere decide which camp is right.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is about how you feel because it impacts how you perceive the data. I am of the opinion that the el Nino will be of sufficient intensity to move the forcing out of the Maritime region. You argue that we need better coupled el Nino to accomplish this, then in the same breath reference the magnitude of warmth in 2015, which was an extremely coupled event. I interpret the data as having forcing displaced to the west, closer to the dateline, than would normally be expected an el Nino with this type of evolution. You interpret it as indicating that this el Nino will essentially act like a La Nina and favor the Maritime forcing. I do not agree, as there has never been a significant el Nino that has done that....you can argue 1972, to which I would respond that descending solar fostered a dramatically different polar domain, which is evident in 1965. I am sure you will say that -NAO will not be as effective now because the block will be too far south.....frankly, I don't care to argue this anymore. We disagree and we'll see what happens.

We know this month that the El Niño hasn’t been strong enough to shut down forcing in the warmer MJO 4-7 regions. Beyond this month, it will be a wait and see approach. But even if the forcing shifts over closer to the Dateline and stays there, the record SSTs could easily boost the VP anomalies enough to give us a warm Nino pattern. The SSTs in Nino 4 are close to 15-16 right now. So this isn’t some weak modoki signal like years past with much cooler Nino 4 temperatures. The reason I mention a +2 to +3 average departure in the Northeast is because +2.9 has been the average departure in the Northeast last 8 seasons. Plus it’s nearly impossible to pick out an exact departure ahead of time. Just that based on what I am seeing now the, places like NYC and maybe the entire Northeast have a shot at a record 9th warmer than average winter in a row. Notice aI am not taking the leap which you did mentioning permanent. Since I make the distinction between loading the dice for more frequent warmth but variability always holds the potential for a colder winter emerging here and there. It’s just that I am not sure what a colder signal would look like before the season to be confident enough to forecast a cold winter. Our eventual next cold winter May just be a surprise that  we have to deconstruct the hoes and why’s when the season is over.