El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, GaWx said:

Note that in case you didn’t know, 1965-6 had a very early major SSW (in early to mid Dec) per this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

 

 

Trust me, I know. lol 12/8 Displacement.

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

It started as east based but is now basinwide. 

It was always supposed to transition from an East Pacific to basinwide event on the computer guidance (CFSv2, ECMWF, etc.). That evolution has now occurred. Some had incorrectly expected a Modoki El Niño, but ENSO Region 1+2 will remain at or above +0.5C throughout the winter, so there will be no Modoki event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only year that I can't really figure out is 1987-1988...it was ascending solar coming out of the min, yet had a +NAO in the DM aggregate. My best guess is that while the el Nino was basin-wide, it had a fairly strong tilt to the east. The AO was fairly strongly negative, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was always supposed to transition from an East Pacific to basinwide event on the computer guidance (CFSv2, ECMWF, etc.). That evolution has now occurred. Some had incorrectly expected a Modoki El Niño, but ENSO Region 1+2 will remain at or above +0.5C throughout the winter, so there will be no Modoki event.

Right, not according to SSTs in the conventional sense, however, the convective forcing remains redolent of a Modoki configuration. Basin-wide events have a larger variance.

[GaWx]

The model consensus progs have strengthened the MJO in both the MC and WP since yesterday:

 

 

 Though not at all a reliable model, the CFS is fairly similar to where the GEFS and EPS are on Dec 14th, the end of their runs. Note where the CFS then goes, into weak 8/1/2 in late Dec (including inside COD), which tends to favor a cool to cold E US, especially SE US:
 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The model consensus progs have strengthened the MJO in both the MC and WP  since yesterday:

 

 

 Though not at all a reliable model, the CFS is fairly similar to where the GEFS and EPS are on Dec 14th, the end of their runs. Note where the CFS then goes, into weak 8/1/2 in late Dec, which tends to favor a cool to cold E US, especially SE US:
 

Yep. Cfs OLR prog lock step with MJO prog. Best part for Mid Atlantic and further south I believe, it ends up just east of the dateline.  May be good for NE, but not certain about that.

[griteater]

Global Wind Oscillation charts (AAM) from prior years are linked in the tables at this site: https://www.sierraphotography.com/wxnotes/

Here is the current chart vs. 1982-1983

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only year that I can't really figure out is 1987-1988...it was ascending solar coming out of the min, yet had a +NAO in the DM aggregate. My best guess is that while the el Nino was basin-wide, it had a fairly strong tilt to the east. The AO was fairly strongly negative, though.

NAO was defacto negative imho that year. You have a pretty typical height response in the Atlantic and higher heights from greenland too Baffin Island region. My guess is there was too much low heights near Hudson Bay and maybe norther Greenland for it to register negative officially but the pattern over the CONUS resembled more of a -NAO than a positive one…likely due to the AO being negative.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAO was defacto negative imho that year. You have a pretty typical height response in the Atlantic and higher heights from greenland too Baffin Island region. My guess is there was too much low heights near Hudson Bay and maybe norther Greenland for it to register negative officially but the pattern over the CONUS resembled more of a -NAO than a positive one…likely due to the AO being negative.

 

Yea, the index metrics aren't always perfect....H5 is definitely more representative of ascending solar (blocky).

Look at last January with the PNA...it was technically positive, but western biased and acted deeply negative.

[GaWx]

The new WCS (for 11/29) had a big daily jump to +2.10 from +1.99 the prior day. So, most likely cyclonicwx will have a gain today.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, not according to SSTs in the conventional sense, however, the convective forcing remains redolent of a Modoki configuration. Basin-wide events have a larger variance.

Yes. I suspect that the ongoing marine heatwave near Region 4 is impacting the forcing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I suspect that the ongoing marine heatwave near Region 4 is impacting the forcing. 

Exactly....its like having the surface low near the BM, but the upper levels being elongated to over the Berkshires. You wouldn't disregard the upper levels in favor of the surface when forecasting synoptics, so why some are doing it with respect to ENSO in seasonal forecasting is beyond me.

[stadiumwave]

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The new WCS (for 11/29) had a big daily jump to +2.10 from +1.99 the prior day. So, most likely cyclonicwx will have a gain today.

Odd, because Coral Reefs went the other way a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly feel as though my primary concern is busting too positive on the seasonal NAO.

[BlizzardWx]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly feel as though my primary concern is busting too positive on the seasonal NAO.

If you were issuing now, what would you change?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, BlizzardWx said:

If you were issuing now, what would you change?

Maybe a slightly more negative NAO and colder December.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The new WCS (for 11/29) had a big daily jump to +2.10 from +1.99 the prior day. So, most likely cyclonicwx will have a gain today.

The cyclonicwx 3.4 rose similarly from +2.01 to +2.12.

Latest cyclonicwx:

1+2: +2.10 (down from +2.3)

3: +2.07 (up from +2.05)

3.4: +2.12 (up from +2.01)

4: +1.91 (up from+1.75)

 Thus this is about as flat/basin-wide as you can get.

[snowman19]

Maybe a slightly more negative NAO and colder December.

FWIW…

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

The cyclonicwx 3.4 rose similarly from +2.01 to +2.12.
Latest cyclonicwx:
1+2: +2.10 (down from +2.3)
3: +2.07 (up from +2.05)
3.4: +2.12 (up from +2.01)
4: +1.91 (up from+1.75)
 Thus this is about as flat/basin-wide as you can get.

Given the current anomalies and subsurface, I don’t think we will have any problem warming to a trimonthly super ONI next month….the signal for the MJO coupling event with another strong WWB/DWKW by the end of the month is getting stronger and stronger. Also will be interesting to see how high the OHC adjusts for this month as a whole

 

 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given the current anomalies and subsurface,

Yeah, the western-central subsurface warm pool of +5c (warmest of the event so far) is increasing again, as of yesterday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW…

 

 

 

 

I could def see a thaw in mid January, but not concerned about the season. January may need to average + for forecast to work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Update on December and what it may entail for the rest of the winter.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/december-preseason-impressions-appear.html

 

[snowman19]

I could def see a thaw in mid January, but not concerned about the season. January may need to average + for forecast to work.

Your warm December idea may work out after all Ray lol Maybe don’t abandon it yet

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Your warm December idea may work out after all Ray lol Maybe don’t abandon it yet

 

 

 

 

I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, the tone of the update  is to simply imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blocking. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.

[stadiumwave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

FWIW…

 

 

 

 

 

In light of recent blocking it makes one wonder why the models are failing so bad on predicting it. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I never "abandon" or change the final outlook product....graded as is. However, all the tone of the update was to imply a slightly cooler risk due to more blowing. But I also stated it will still be fairly mild until the PAC jet slows down. The most important note was the implication of this early blocking for later in the season.

The implication on later in the season is the part that interests me. Even if the NAO is negative for the reasons you mentioned I am leaning mild, but if we do get blocking in Jan-Feb that could derail my winter outlook (called for a big +NAO in Jan-Feb). Im not abandoning my forecast and jumping on board with a snowier winter just yet. However, as someone who is trying to become a more objective poster, I have to acknowledge that the latest polar polar vortex guidance is pretty much the opposite of what I expected to see. 

[George001]

That said, even if we do get a -NAO, I’m pumping the breaks until I see significant improvements in the pacific. That’s my biggest concern for the coastal plain Dec-Jan, that the pacific is so hostile that even if the -NAO forces some slow moving bombs underneath, it will be more wet than white. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

The implication on later in the season is the part that interests me. Even if the NAO is negative for the reasons you mentioned I am leaning mild, but if we do get blocking in Jan-Feb that could derail my winter outlook (called for a big +NAO in Jan-Feb). Im not abandoning my forecast and jumping on board with a snowier winter just yet. However, as someone who is trying to become a more objective poster, I have to acknowledge that the latest polar polar vortex guidance is pretty much the opposite of what I expected to see. 

This is minor.... I'm talking maybe normal instead of +1 to +2, but blocking alone won't dramatically alter things because the PAC jet will be active until at least the later third of the month or so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

That said, even if we do get a -NAO, I’m pumping the breaks until I see significant improvements in the pacific. That’s my biggest concern for the coastal plain Dec-Jan, that the pacific is so hostile that even if the -NAO forces some slow moving bombs underneath, it will be more wet than white. 

Agree.