El Nino 2023-2024

[DarkSharkWX]

39 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also did we just set the warmest Nino 4 has been ever?

whats the highest daily? on the monthly index highest i could find was 1.44 set on nov 2015

[snowman19]

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month Mitch. 3.4 is already +2C right now
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@bluewave

Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

 

 

 

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

18 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

whats the highest daily? on the monthly index highest i could find was 1.44 set on nov 2015

Unfortunately I do not have daily records but 2015 did set two weekly values of 1.7 so we are getting rather close to those levels with a large spike like that you tend to have some minor warming and leveling out afterward so wouldn't be surprised to see a weekly tie maybe beat 2015?

Edit to add a picture of the anomalies during the run up to it. It goes 1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4

[qg_omega]

Very impressive Super Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested in December outcomes in the East based on the MJO's being predominantly in Phases 4 or 5 in early December (December 1-10):

December 1981 was great IMBY... big Miller B backed in and crushed ENE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month. 3.4 is already +2C right now
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who is suprised at it being the 4th warmest? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

5 hours ago, NEPASnow said:

Is there any truth to this, I've never heard of this before.
is this related to sun spots?
 

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Margusity, Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

 Correct, that along with solar wind are linked to strong PV, but they both peak 1-3 years after solar max....this is why descending solar is hostile for winter.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Very impressive Super Nino

Not as strong as 1997

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Well, I disagree. I can care less what the CFS shows. People have been doubting this event for months and months now and this one is headed for a 4th place (in strength) El Niño event since 1980, behind only 15-16, 97-98, 82-83….in that order. This event has clearly not yet peaked and it’s going to warm further next month. I think it easily goes over +2.0C for more than a month. 3.4 is already +2C right now
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is this event in comparison to all the others in the last 43 years….clearly headed to a top 4 event, most likely taking 4th place just behind 82-83

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that I  feel at all comfortable defending the Cfs, but once it lost the +2 handle back in late August or early September, unlike all other guidance, it's done best. Can it cr@p the bed now? Sure, but the next warming isn't like the last one.

[so_whats_happening]

Rather strong warming taking place in the equatorial WPAC seems to be aiding in the idea of region 4 being near record levels.

[mitchnick]

Surprising to see 3 drop so much in the last week.

[George001]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Very impressive Super Nino

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

You should never let someone else think for you. We have a great pool of talent on here. We turned out to be right about this not evolving like a typical east based event. Myself along with others were pointing out that the record WPAC pool was different than the way Paul was seeing this early on evolving like an El Niño before 1980. The structure of the OKC was also different. Whether this event tops at an ONI of of 1.8 to +2.0 or 2.0 to +2.2 is the least interesting aspect of this event IMHO. The big story is the record +30C warm pool from the Dateline back to the Maritime Continent. I can remember pointing out early on how the MJO 4-6 areas would rebound in temperature once the IOD peaked. There weren’t any tweets from Paul indicating that the WPAC would be so different from previous events. Instead we heard this this would be a classic pre 1980 El Niño. But none of those El Niños had the record WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 forcing to start December. Remember it’s not necessarily the exact  ONI departures which count, but where the pool of +30C SST departures are located with the forcing which leads to our sensible weather. We are in a new era of marine heatwaves which provide competition to the ENSO. So instead of playing single El Niño notes, the atmosphere can respond like playing a chord with a mix of Nino and Niña notes. This will determine the Rossby wave and 500 mb pattern. The chart below is how much warmer the WPAC basin is than all other El Niños at the end of November.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

This is why we shouldn’t think for ourselves and instead let Paul Roundy tell us what to think. Paul Roundy told me the nino would be super. I listened to him initially, then backed off based on my own observations and analysis. If I didn’t bother to do any of that and just waited for Paul Roundy to tell me what to think, I would have stuck to my guns and doubled down on this nino growing into a super event. Now, it looks like that’s exactly what’s happening. It looked for a bit like it might top at strong, but it’s going super.

This has to be one of the dumbest posts I have ever seen on these forums for a multitude of different reasons. God, you are a new kind of awful these days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You should never let someone else think for you. We have a great pool of talent on here. We turned out to be right about this not evolving like a typical east based event. Myself along with others were pointing out that the record WPAC pool was different than the way Paul was seeing this early on evolving like an El Niño before 1980. The structure of the OKC was also different. Whether this event tops at an ONI of of 1.8 to +2.0 or 2.0 to +2.2 is the least interesting aspect of this event IMHO. The big story is the record +30C warm pool from the Dateline back to the Maritime Continent. I can remember pointing out early on how the MJO 4-6 areas would rebound in temperature once the IOD peaked. There weren’t any tweets from Paul indicating that the WPAC would be so different from previous events. Instead we heard this this would be a classic pre 1980 El Niño. But none of those El Niños had the record WPAC warm pool and MJO 4-6 forcing to start December. Remember it’s not necessarily the exact  ONI departures which count, but where the pool of +30C SST departures are located with the forcing which leads to our sensible weather. We are in a new era of marine heatwaves which provide competition to the ENSO. So instead of playing single El Niño notes, the atmosphere can respond like playing a chord with a mix of Nino and Niña notes. This will determine the Rossby wave and 500 mb pattern. The chart below is how much warmer the WPAC basin is than all other El Niños at the end of November.

 

Perfectly stated...Paul approached this with an archaic frame of mind...doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't brilliant, but rather human like the rest of us. That said, it doesn't mean wall-to-wall cold and snow, either. I agree with you that there will be some bouts of Maritime forcing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

While I still highly doubt an ONI above 1.9, I agree that it doesn't really matter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA

2.0       0.3      0.0         2.0      1.0      1.4            3.0      2.3      3.3

 

On 11/28/2023 at 10:36 PM, raindancewx said:

When was the last time the East was cold when the MJO went into phase five in December? It's not rocket science guys. We're going into phases 4-5. The Pacific is record warm in Nino 4 and the Indian Ocean is dis-favorable for the MJO weakening in 4-5. 

The MJO is predictable. You just have to master elaborate concepts in mathematics...like counting. I don't know why you guys can't learn this stuff.

Gee I wonder what will happen.

Perhaps Raindance can teach Don Sutherland to count?

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Perhaps Raindance can teach Don Sutherland to count?

DCA should be 1.0. I had what I thought was a typo, but was probably a counting problem.

[George001]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Perfectly stated...Paul approached this with an archaic frame of mind...doesn't necessarily mean that he isn't brilliant, but rather human like the rest of us. That said, it doesn't mean wall-to-wall cold and snow, either. I agree with you that there will be some bout of Maritime forcing.

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter. 

Paul also said the pattern is going to get better as we get later into December 

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Paul also said the pattern is going to get better as we get later into December 

That’s true, he did say there would be a window. Hopefully we can cash in when the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

Paul said this is going to be a big one as early as late last winter, and welp here we are. It’s a big one, and Paul has been dead on about its evolution. He said it would build from east to west, and it did just that. It’s ok to admit that he was right. Yes, it’s not a pure east based nino, it’s now basin wide. But….. so was 2015-2016, the strength does matter. 

Dude, you do realize I have been calling for peak ONI of 1.7 to 1.9, unabated, since June? Furthermore, considering the pending strat warming that even Paul is on board with, you should have a gander at the seasonal evolution of the composite of el Nino seasons that have featured a disturbed polar domain in December with forcing pinned near the Dateline.

Get a grip...and a clue-

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s true, he did say there would be a window. Hopefully we can cash in when the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month.

Areas in SNE and interior New England might see snow next week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if Paul realizes that he is referring to this as a canonical, super el Nino and in the same breath anticipating a potential SSW....here is list of those events that featured a early strat warming.....ready, go:

....................

 

You wonder at what point this will eventually register.

[NEPASnow]

Thought it was a central based El Nino now with 3 & 3.4 being the warmest?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder is Paul realizes that he is referring to this as a canonical, super el Nino and in the same breath anticipating a potential SSW....here is list of those events that featured a early strat warming.....ready, go:

....................

 

You wonder at what point this will eventually register.

the issue that we're still seeing is that people see a very strong event that's based in the EP (which is true) and that's where it begins and ends. the majority of the strong/super years also did not feature blocking. this one can certainly finish with a -NAO, which puts it in great company

[George001]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, you do realize I have been calling for peak ONI of 1.7 to 1.9, unabated, since June? Furthermore, considering the pending strat warming that even Paul is on board with, you should have a gander at the seasonal evolution of the composite of el Nino seasons that have featured a disturbed polar domain in December with forcing pinned near the Dateline.

Get a grip...and a clue-

Yeah, reading your outlook we are on the same page about the strength of the El Niño. It could be a bit stronger, but I don’t think it matters too much. It’s not going to be 2015-2016 or 1997-1998 strong, it’s going to be more 1965-1966 to 1972-1973 strong. I hear a lot of talk about the forcing, but I question  how big of a driver it truly is on our temp profiles compared to the raw strength of the nino and -PDO. The plot that Raindance showed earlier of snowfall totals in Boston during El Niño winters for varying PDO values shows a clear correlation. I haven’t seen anything like that about the relationship between VP forcing and eastern US temps.

[George001]

16 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

Thought it was a central based El Nino now with 3 & 3.4 being the warmest?

It started as east based but is now basinwide. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, reading your outlook we are on the same page about the strength of the El Niño. It could be a bit stronger, but I don’t think it matters too much. It’s not going to be 2015-2016 or 1997-1998 strong, it’s going to be more 1965-1966 to 1972-1973 strong. I hear a lot of talk about the forcing, but I question  how big of a driver it truly is on our temp profiles compared to the raw strength of the nino and -PDO. The plot that Raindance showed earlier of snowfall totals in Boston during El Niño winters for varying PDO values shows a clear correlation. I haven’t seen anything like that about the relationship between VP forcing and eastern US temps.

The PDO was very negative in 1965-1966....take a look at that season, as its the best analog IMO....my main one.

If you read my full report and still do not feel as though there is a relationship between vp and sensible weather, then I give up...not sure what else to tell you. I even emphasized years that did not behave as expected given the vp pattern, such as 2006-2007, and went into great detail as to why (solar).

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The PDO was very negative in 1965-1966....take a look at that season, as it’s the best analog IMO....my main one.

Note that in case you didn’t know, 1965-6 had a very early major SSW (in early to mid Dec) per this:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming