El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies:

1. H5:

 Best run yet in the E US for the first week of Jan, especially as regards H5 with a textbook +PNA/Aleutian Low (most of E US BN at 2m):

2. SPV:

 Weakest run yet for late Dec/early Jan with a whopping ~35% of members showing a major SSW (vs prior highest of ~30% yesterday) and ~18% of members going below -10 m/s (vs prior highest of ~12% both yesterday and one from last week), indicative of a notable major SSW. These are quite high %s for something showing up 3.5-6.5 weeks away! 35% is much above the longterm chance of 20-25% for a major SSW occuring by Jan 13:

Jan 1 to Jan 8 850mb Temp Anomalies on Euro Wk

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This uncoupling argument, saying it will stay indefinitely uncoupled is weak. It defies the physical equations.
The atmosphere *must* respond for the system to rebalance. The longer it is uncoupled the stronger the El Niño will become; and in turn the eventual atmospheric response more extreme.
 
.

This is going to be one of the strongest El Niños since 1980. In the top 4 in the last 43+ years actually. This one will go down with the big guns (82-83, 97-98, 15-16). It may get close to 82-83’s strength when all is said and done, but I think it takes 4th place, maybe not by much. 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, 23-24, in that order. Just looking at what this El Niño has done to the global heat budget…moved the +30C warm pool east of the dateline through a massive (record) WWB and DWKW, +2C SSTs in Nino regions 1+2, 3, 3.4….if anyone thinks a Nino of this strength would stay “uncoupled” then I don’t know what to say (don’t think anyone here is suggesting that?). That would be completely delusional. No one should make any mistake about it, this Nino will make its presence felt in a HUGE way this winter. It will be the main player, by far and the atmospheric response will be overwhelming and I’d have to agree it will be extreme. 


This is a real good illustration of just how intense this event is: 

 

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The correlation has worked out for every El Niño since 02-03. But for some reason, it didn’t really exist before that. The 3 coldest El Niño falls into the Plains and Great Lakes in 02, 09, and 14 expanded a few degrees eastward for the winter. Then the colder in Plains and warmer in the East El Niño falls of 06 and 18 repeated for the winter. I chalk this up to our new era of stuck and stagnant weather patterns. So a fall pattern can linger in some fashion into the winter. 

 

 

 

 Oh brother more CC.

 If you would just look at the individual years it doesn't appear that way as it did when you use a blend to smooth it over. 

And it's just not good science to use a small sample size of 3 winters, which individually don't correlate as well as you're indicating, and then draw robust conclusions. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Jan 1 to Jan 8 850mb Temp Anomalies on Euro Wk

Today’s Euro Weeklies precip. anomalies probabilities for 1/1-8:

Miller A/nor’easter potential? Just about all of the E US is favored to be either NN or AN (no dry), which is significant for a cold period since they can easily be dry. This is where El Niño would likely be helping with split flow:

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 Oh brother more CC.

 If you would just look at the individual years it doesn't appear that way as it did when you use a blend to smooth it over. 

And it's just not good science to use a small sample size of 3 winters, which individually don't correlate as well as you're indicating, and then draw robust conclusions. 

 

23 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

A large number of individual years did work out as you posted a few posts back. My analysis covered a large portion of the CONUS. So cherry picking a few locations on the map that didn’t work out is missing the point. 20 years isn’t that small of a sample size. And if you were so concerned about the science, you wouldn’t have taken the name of a discredited stadium wave paper which proclaimed that global warming was going to level off after 2010 or pause until the late 2020s when the opposite has occurred.

[stadiumwave]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

A large number of individual years did work out as you posted a few posts back. My analysis covered a large portion of the CONUS. So cherry picking a few locations on the map that didn’t work out is missing the point. 20 years isn’t that small of a sample size. And if you were so concerned about the science, you wouldn’t have taken the name of a discredited stadium wave paper which proclaimed that global warming was going to level off after 2010 or pause until the late 2020s when the opposite has occurred.

 

That's not why I chose the name. But I do like Judith Curry. 

You picked 3 years, which IS a small sample size. We're talking El Nino. 

And I didn't cherry pick anything. 

[Terpeast]

I have to agree with @stadiumwave after looking at the individual years and the blend of 3 years. 

the smoothing looks like there’s something there, but in this case, no. That’s why we have to be careful about combining years into a composite map, especially if there are so few years in the blend. It’s fine if they all show spatial similarities, but if they’re so different that they don’t individually match the blend, we’d have to toss the blend due to small sample size. 

PS. This advice goes for me, too. I’ve been known to blend liberally on small sample sizes…

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

That's not why I chose the name. But I do like Judith Curry. 

You picked 3 years, which IS a small sample size. We're talking El Nino. 

And I didn't cherry pick anything. 

I picked a total of 7 El Niño years since 2000 which showed similarities in fall patterns to winter. A similarity doesn’t mean an exact carbon copy. Plus the increasing number of multiyear La Ninas may naturally create a larger sample pool of events to draw from than El Niños. We could probably reduce what officially counts as an El Nino by including coupling issues in years like 18-19 along with El Niños with -PDOs. Competing marine heatwaves may eventually result in a large enough sample size to change our expectations of ENSO events relative to climatology from earlier eras when these extreme marine heatwaves weren’t as prevalent. 

[raindancewx]

The models have been pretty bad so far. Although the CFS does have a warm December. It can at least see the tendency for systems to undercut the northern heat.

My unweighted analog blend from August beat the Canadian (currently +3 to +6 in the Northern Plains, not cold as the Canadian shows). I did get cute in November by changing the weighting of the years in the forecast. But overall, the raw blend +1 for its age did just fine. Local snow, precipitation, and high profile for November is nearly identical to the blend. November is already at an inch of snow here (let's see if my troll gets annoyed), with a bit more possible by 11/30. We've had double our normal precipitation. First month to do that since October 2022 locally. Month will finish warm, but not much. It's been cold lately, and yes the cold lately is centered in the Plains/West. I would invite all of you to look at precipitation patterns - Nov was an interesting month for precip.

 

Observed:

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The models have been pretty bad so far. Although the CFS does have a warm December. It can at least see the tendency for systems to undercut the northern heat.

My unweighted analog blend from August beat the Canadian (currently +3 to +6 in the Northern Plains, not cold as the Canadian shows). I did get cute in November by changing the weighting of the years in the forecast. But overall, the raw blend +1 for its age did just fine. Local snow, precipitation, and high profile for November is nearly identical to the blend. November is already at an inch of snow here (let's see if my troll gets annoyed), with a bit more possible by 11/30. We've had double our normal precipitation. First month to do that since October 2022 locally. Month will finish warm, but not much. It's been cold lately, and yes the cold lately is centered in the Plains/West. I would invite all of you to look at precipitation patterns - Nov was an interesting month for precip.

 

Observed:

Cfs2 has entire US mild for December... even New Mexico( surely not, that has to be wrong). Old Mexico too for that matter, lol

[raindancewx]

When was the last time the East was cold when the MJO went into phase five in December? It's not rocket science guys. We're going into phases 4-5. The Pacific is record warm in Nino 4 and the Indian Ocean is dis-favorable for the MJO weakening in 4-5. 

The MJO is predictable. You just have to master elaborate concepts in mathematics...like counting. I don't know why you guys can't learn this stuff.

Gee I wonder what will happen.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

When was the last time the East was cold when the MJO went into phase five in December? It's not rocket science guys. We're going into phases 4-5. The Pacific is record warm in Nino 4 and the Indian Ocean is dis-favorable for the MJO weakening in 4-5. 

The MJO is predictable. You just have to master elaborate concepts in mathematics...like counting. I don't know why you guys can't learn this stuff.

Gee I wonder what will happen.

Raindance’s official December forecast:

+9 to +12 everywhere east of the Mississippi river.

Let’s run a verification check on New Year’s day. If he’s right, we eat our shoe. If he’s wrong, let’s fund his remedial mathematics class. 

[griteater]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Raindance’s official December forecast:

+9 to +12 everywhere east of the Mississippi river.

Let’s run a verification check on New Year’s day. If he’s right, we eat our shoe. If he’s wrong, let’s fund his remedial mathematics class. 

He's so smart.  I'm in awe.

I'm just trying to figure out where the posts are in here that are calling for a cold Dec in the E U.S.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Raindance’s official December forecast:

+9 to +12 everywhere east of the Mississippi river.

Let’s run a verification check on New Year’s day. If he’s right, we eat our shoe. If he’s wrong, let’s fund his remedial mathematics class. 

My weighted analog composite is all of the 6 snowiest seasons in New Mexico minus one snowy eastern season to "fix" it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, griteater said:

He's so smart.  I'm in awe.

I'm just trying to figure out where the posts are in here that are calling for a cold Dec in the E U.S.

I don't think I have seen any calling for a below normal season in the NE.

Any guess as to why such a bright forecaster has amassed all of 331 followers on Twitter over the course 8+ years? Must be his sunny disposition and courteous manner of interaction.

[raindancewx]

Where are these Decembers that are cold in the East with MJO in phase 4-5 at the start of the month? I'm sure you could find some ancient year when the Earth is vastly colder that did it. But the recent years with any resemblance to recent patterns are 2017 which is a horrible analog, and then 2014, 2015, and 2011. Also 1999 which is very warm. I guess you could throw in 2000 and 2017 but they just don't match recent looks in any way shape or form.

I don't know why you guys care what I think. I sure as hell don't value the inputs in here. You've all been posting the same stupid maps of tropical forcing that have no direct relation to our actual observable for months. Find methods that predict the weather and use them.

[griteater]

12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Where are these Decembers that are cold in the East with MJO in phase 4-5 at the start of the month? I'm sure you could find some ancient year when the Earth is vastly colder that did it. But the recent years with any resemblance to recent patterns are 2017 which is a horrible analog, and then 2014, 2015, and 2011. Also 1999 which is very warm. I guess you could throw in 2000 and 2017 but they just don't match recent looks in any way shape or form.

I don't know why you guys care what I think. I sure as hell don't value the inputs in here. You've all been posting the same stupid maps of tropical forcing that have no direct relation to our actual observable for months. Find methods that predict the weather and use them.

If tropical forcing has no direct relation to our actual observable weather, why are you mentioning the MJO?  The very definition of the MJO is a dipole consisting of an enhanced convective phase and a suppressed convective phase that propagates eastward thru the tropics.

[so_whats_happening]

Been a min but here is the latest TAO. I decided to do daily during this WWB to see how things progressed. Ill go back to every other day as we get into December.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Where are these Decembers that are cold in the East with MJO in phase 4-5 at the start of the month? I'm sure you could find some ancient year when the Earth is vastly colder that did it. But the recent years with any resemblance to recent patterns are 2017 which is a horrible analog, and then 2014, 2015, and 2011. Also 1999 which is very warm. I guess you could throw in 2000 and 2017 but they just don't match recent looks in any way shape or form.

I don't know why you guys care what I think. I sure as hell don't value the inputs in here. You've all been posting the same stupid maps of tropical forcing that have no direct relation to our actual observable for months. Find methods that predict the weather and use them.

I have yet to see who is forecasting or even implying a cold December in the east. In fact, pretty much every forecast I have seen, regardless of the overall outcome, has December as the mildest month of winter. 

 

I guess if someone doesn't forecast a Dec 2015 redux that means they are saying it will be cold? Or is it the fact that people note the fact that it can and will still snow in a mild December in places? As I type it's 18° here and I have a little snow on the ground. A warm December in Detroit is still colder than a cold December in Albuquerque. It's all relative. Anomalies are just that. The country doesn't literally get turned upside when it's "cold" in the SW and "warm" in the NE.

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Where are these Decembers that are cold in the East with MJO in phase 4-5 at the start of the month? I'm sure you could find some ancient year when the Earth is vastly colder that did it. But the recent years with any resemblance to recent patterns are 2017 which is a horrible analog, and then 2014, 2015, and 2011. Also 1999 which is very warm. I guess you could throw in 2000 and 2017 but they just don't match recent looks in any way shape or form.

I don't know why you guys care what I think. I sure as hell don't value the inputs in here. You've all been posting the same stupid maps of tropical forcing that have no direct relation to our actual observable for months. Find methods that predict the weather and use them.

LOL are you serious? do you know what the MJO is?

[brooklynwx99]

also talk about sanctimonious, holy shit. if you don't value the inputs in here, why post here? to just grace us with your galaxy brain? do you think us mere mortals could possibly understand your superior forecasting methods?

[brooklynwx99]

as others have said, I don't think there's been a single person that's called for a cold December. in fact, many have called for a very warm month, including myself. it's just that the -NAO and weak SPV correlate to more blocking later in the winter

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

I have to agree with @stadiumwave after looking at the individual years and the blend of 3 years. 

the smoothing looks like there’s something there, but in this case, no. That’s why we have to be careful about combining years into a composite map, especially if there are so few years in the blend. It’s fine if they all show spatial similarities, but if they’re so different that they don’t individually match the blend, we’d have to toss the blend due to small sample size. 

PS. This advice goes for me, too. I’ve been known to blend liberally on small sample sizes…

If you are adhering to the rules of sample size purism, then very few posts in this thread using El Niño winter composites have a large enough sample size. The possible subcategories this winter include questions of coupling, strength, location of warmest ENSO SST anomalies, record WPAC warmth for an El Niño, negative phase of PDO, early MJO 4-6 phases, competing marine heatwaves for forcing with ENSO, along with other factors. So there are going to be a naturally small number of past years which match this year. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try to use even a smaller sample size than we would probably want to to look for clues. Sometimes in forecasting we have to try and follow the spirit of the law so to speak when the letter of the law may be out of reach. 

[ORH_wxman]

Man, all I have to do is count to forecast correctly? Who knew!!

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, all I have to do is count to forecast correctly? Who knew!!

Ashame that model he posted to forecast the month only goes out to the 12th and changes every day along with every other MJO prog.

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ashame that model he posted to forecast the month only gies out to the 12th and changes every day along with every other MJO prog.

I have to admit I was in awe of that strawman he built….he sure had a lot of fun whooping its ass. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, all I have to do is count to forecast correctly? Who knew!!

Not to mention he posts that Dec 2015 MJO plot that is amplified as hell moving through the Maritimes, along side the plot for this December, which clearly has it limping into the COD before completing phase 4.....while likely mild, this month will be orders of magnitude cooler than December 2015.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

If you are adhering to the rules of sample size purism, then very few posts in this thread using El Niño winter composites have a large enough sample size. The possible subcategories this winter include questions of coupling, strength, location of warmest ENSO SST anomalies, record WPAC warmth for an El Niño, negative phase of PDO, early MJO 4-6 phases, competing marine heatwaves for forcing with ENSO, along with other factors. So there are going to be a naturally small number of past years which match this year. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try to use even a smaller sample size than we would probably want to to look for clues. Sometimes in forecasting we have to try and follow the spirit of the law so to speak when the letter of the law may be out of reach. 

Yeah you’re right. We’re in pretty much uncharted territory. I just don’t think we’ll see another Dec 2015 or that the PDO will overpower the nino, especially as it recently strengthened. There aren’t many similar years to this, except 65-66 and 09-10. So that’s where I looked for clues. You looked for clues in different places, and that’s fair. 

[mitchnick]

Courtesy Eskimo Joe

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Courtesy Eskimo Joe

Welcome to last summer, Paul.