El Nino 2023-2024

[BlizzardWx]

Here is a comparison of the height anomalies for the fall so far, obviously it won't change that much over the next couple days as we round out November. I forgot to normalize the scales as a full disclosure, but it wouldn't have made that much difference in the plotted colors. Anyway, pretty interesting how persistent and widespread ridging has been compared to other El Ninos. There has been a notable lack of a STJ for most of the fall as well as incredibly broad ridging extending from the Great Basin through much of Canada. No other year matches well, though if you skewed the anomalies more positive I suppose 1997 could sort of work.

Below is the next month on the EPS weeklies versus the other El Nino years I included. Interesting to see that the +PNA/-NAO pattern showed up in only a few others cases. I thought the best matches were 2002 and 1963, with 2009 not being a bad match either. You could make an argument for a few other years, but they don't have the ridge axis in the right place which I view as essential. I suppose all this is to say, I like what I am seeing at this point. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Here is a comparison of the height anomalies for the fall so far, obviously it won't change that much over the next couple days as we round out November. I forgot to normalize the scales as a full disclosure, but it wouldn't have made that much difference in the plotted colors. Anyway, pretty interesting how persistent and widespread ridging has been compared to other El Ninos. There has been a notable lack of a STJ for most of the fall as well as incredibly broad ridging extending from the Great Basin through much of Canada. No other year matches well, though if you skewed the anomalies more positive I suppose 1997 could sort of work.

Below is the next month on the EPS weeklies versus the other El Nino years I included. Interesting to see that the +PNA/-NAO pattern showed up in only a few others cases. I thought the best matches were 2002 and 1963, with 2009 not being a bad match either. You could make an argument for a few other years, but they don't have the ridge axis in the right place which I view as essential. I suppose all this is to say, I like what I am seeing at this point. 

 

I think 2014 is a decent match to this past fall, too.

1965, 1968 and 1987 look best moving forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 11/1-18 Euro Weeklies runs were making me think a weaker than normal Dec SPV model bias quite possibly was in play due to major can kicking. The date of the SPV going below climo slipped from ~12/1 to 12/25 and thus it stayed a month+ out/like a mirage. However, the last 8 runs have come all the way back along with extending into early Jan with the last 5 runs being very impressive with today’s having the most major SSW members (30%). Thus, I no longer think a model bias is in play. Furthermore, there’s modest support on the extended GEFS. And don’t forget that the CFS fwiw is supporting a weak SPV this winter. So, I now fully expect a weak SPV will at least dominate Dec (with or without a major SSW) and may very well go into Jan. Now if we actually get a major SSW late in Dec, it could rebound within a few weeks as they sometimes do.

It was always clear to me, but hopefully this puts to rest for some other folks the idea of Tonga pulling a Pinatubo.

[BlizzardWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2014 is a decent match to this past fall, too.

1965, 1968 and 1987 look best moving forward.

Actually now that you say that I can see it. If you move 2014 east just a bit it matches up relatively ok. 

[griteater]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that record +30C warm pool is slowing the forcing down around the Maritime Continent instead of allowing it to move more quickly to the east. 

New run forcing further west

Old run was further east

 

It's something to watch as we've seen slowdowns on the modeling in recent years when the MJO signal moves thru the Maritime Continent.  

In the end, I think it's just a blip and a bit of a slowdown is a preferred outcome in my mind as MJO 8-1-2 produces a more wintry pattern in the east in late Dec / early Jan than it does in early-mid Dec per the Roundy seasonal MJO composites.

IMO, the GEFS Ext RMM plot below has a pretty good handle on how the MJO related -VP should roll east from the MC into the W Pac, then W Hemisphere thru 8-1-2 in late-Dec / early Jan.  The Euro Ext and CFS have similar ideas.

AAM should be on the rise mid-late Dec as well (El Nino like).  I'm not clear on some comments made suggesting that El Nino forcing is maybe a bad thing, as quality El Nino forcing to me is +PNA with undercutting subtropical jet, with hopefully some high latitude blocking thrown in.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's something to watch as we've seen slowdowns on the modeling in recent years when the MJO signal moves thru the Maritime Continent.  

In the end, I think it's just a blip and a bit of a slowdown is a preferred outcome in my mind as MJO 8-1-2 produces a more wintry pattern in the east in late Dec / early Jan than it does in early-mid Dec per the Roundy seasonal MJO composites.

IMO, the GEFS Ext RMM plot below has a pretty good handle on how the MJO related -VP should roll east from the MC into the W Pac, then W Hemisphere thru 8-1-2 in late-Dec / early Jan.  The Euro Ext and CFS have similar ideas.

AAM should be on the rise mid-late Dec as well (El Nino like).  I'm not clear on some comments made suggesting that El Nino forcing is maybe a bad thing, as quality El Nino forcing to me is +PNA with undercutting subtropical jet, with hopefully some high latitude blocking thrown in.

Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. 

So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years. 

[stadiumwave]

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. 

So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years. 

 

 

[griteater]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. 

So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years. 

I like a little later, like Dec 20 - Jan 10, but I hear ya 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

I like a little later, like Dec 20 - Jan 10, but I hear ya 

Same page.

[GaWx]

 The OHC is still being adjusted upward for the same timeframe and is now showing a new high on this graph for this event of ~+1.40 with further ongoing sharp rises being suggested. Keeping in mind reporting lag as this particular graph is updated only through ~10 days ago (midmonth instead of late month), Nov has a good shot to exceed June as the warmest month of this Nino so far in the monthly table. This is for 5N to 5S down to 300m and uses a 1991-2020 base:

[mitchnick]

On 11/25/2023 at 5:25 PM, GaWx said:

It still looks great through early Jan with the EPS mean having the SPV become weaker than the climo avg starting Dec 2nd and it being well below climo Dec 5th through Jan 9th. Keep in mind that ~a week ago, the EPS mean wasn’t going below climo til Dec 25th! This run has a whopping 25% of its members with a major SSW between mid Dec and early Jan, which is the highest of any run yet and is well above the climo chance for that period:

Another tick lower last night.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Another tick lower last night.

I know. I already posted the 11/26 update here as it updates by late afternoon (before night). So, the next update (11/27) will be by late afternoon today:

 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I know. I already posted the 11/26 update here as it updates by late afternoon:

 

Whooops....missed that.

[GaWx]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Whooops....missed that.

No worries, Mitch. If you decide to delete your two recent posts, I’ll also delete my replies to clear the thread.

[Eskimo Joe]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a lot of spread, but based on my research some of the best winter events start as a shortwave entering the conus when the mjo is in 7. 

So it looks like our best chances will come after Dec 11, and if this RMM forecast holds, through christmas/new years. 

The week of Dec 15th is my yearly benchmark. If we go through that time and there's nothing on guidance, then start warming up the golf clubs because we're staring down the barrel of another disappointment. 

[GaWx]

 As expected, today’s weekly OISST based NOAA update (for last calendar week) for Nino 3.4 came in at +2.1, an increase from the prior week’s +1.9. Also, for the first time since way back in early Feb, the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly came in warmer than that for Nino 1+2, which remained at +2.0.

 

Today’s weekly NOAA update:

Nino 1+2: +2.0 (steady)

Nino 3: +2.3 (up from +2.1)

Nino 3.4: +2.1 (up from +1.9)

Nino 4: +1.5 (steady)

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As expected, today’s weekly OISST based NOAA update (for last calendar week) for Nino 3.4 came in at +2.1, an increase from the prior week’s +1.9. Also, for the first time since way back in early Feb, the weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly came in warmer than that for Nino 1+2, which remained at +2.0.
 
Today’s weekly NOAA update:
Nino 1+2: +2.0 (steady)
Nino 3: +2.3 (up from +2.1)
Nino 3.4: +2.1 (up from +1.9)
Nino 4: +1.5 (steady)
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for
 

As suspected, 3.4, 3 and the OHC have increased. Probably going to need to see a +2.4C reading next month in order for a super trimonthly ONI to verify. An ONI of +1.9C (at least) looks like a given now. Region 1+2 has just started to warm again as the Kelvin wave surfaces, I expect next week’s reading to reflect that. Probably one month left before we know for sure

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As suspected, 3.4, 3 and the OHC have increased. Probably going to need to see a +2.4C reading next month in order for a super trimonthly ONI to verify. An ONI of +1.9C (at least) looks like a given now. Region 1+2 has just started to warm again as the Kelvin wave surfaces, I expect next week’s reading to reflect that. Probably one month left before we know for sure

 

 

 

 

 I agree with your general ideas. Per ERSST, Oct was +1.66 and Nov is likely going to be in the general vicinity of +2.0. So, for OND to come in +2.0+, Dec would probably need to come in near +2.35, likely a tough task. The better chance may be with NDJ (I’m guessing you agree) with its first month near +2.0. For that, Dec could come in, say, ~+2.1 and Jan, say, ~+1.9 or, say, Dec ~+2.2 and Jan ~+1.8 and a +2.0 ONI is reached either way.

[griteater]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I agree with your general ideas. Per ERSST, Oct was +1.66 and Nov is likely going to be in the general vicinity of +2.0. So, for OND to come in +2.0+, Dec would probably need to come in near +2.35, likely a tough task. The better chance may be with NDJ (I’m guessing you agree) with its first month near +2.0. For that, Dec could come in, say, ~+2.1 and Jan, say, ~+1.9 or, say, Dec ~+2.2 and Jan ~+1.8 and a +2.0 ONI is reached either way.

2.17 for Dec should do it if Nov is 2.01 (my estimate for Nov from post last week).

1.66 / 2.01 / 2.17 for OND = 1.95 avg, rounded to +2.0

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

2.17 for Dec should do it if Nov is 2.01 (my estimate for Nov from post last week).

1.66 / 2.01 / 2.17 for OND = 1.95 avg, rounded to +2.0

I think GaWX was using a true 2.0....not rounded. Since 1965-66 with its rounded 2.0 trimonthly peak is usually classified as "strong" and not "super" because it had an unrounded trimonthly avg below 2.0 (something like 1.97 IIRC).

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think GaWX was using a true 2.0....not rounded. Since 1965-66 with its rounded 2.0 trimonthly peak is usually classified as "strong" and not "super" because it had an unrounded trimonthly avg below 2.0 (something like 1.97 IIRC).

Yeah, I was using unrounded. For rounded, what @griteater said makes perfect sense.

[GaWx]

 Meanwhile, WCS just reported the largest daily drop in Nino 3.4 in two months with a drop from +2.10 to +1.98! That’s the coolest on WCS since Nov 16th and certainly unexpected by me:

 

 The daily WCS PDO dropped to -0.84 from -0.77.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Meanwhile, WCS just reported the largest daily drop in Nino 3.4 in two months with a drop from +2.10 to +1.98! That’s the coolest on WCS since Nov 16th and certainly unexpected by me:

 

 The daily WCS PDO dropped to -0.84 from -0.77.

The cyclonicwx Nino 3.4 dropped by a similar amount, from +2.15 to +2.03, the biggest daily drop in a very long time:

[snowman19]

The cyclonicwx Nino 3.4 dropped by a similar amount, from +2.15 to +2.03, the biggest daily drop in a very long time:

Saw that. Question is, is this a temporary day to day flux like we’ve seen a bunch of times during this event (warming/cooling) or something bigger? Let’s see what it does into the weekend. If it continues to drop steadily into Saturday/Sunday then maybe something is going on. If I had to guess this is transient and it warms back up again given the big synoptic picture of everything right now but I could be wrong. Going to give it to the weekend to see if this drop doesn’t stop and hold or start warming again

[Daniel Boone]

That warm pool off Japan has and is having impacts on the 500mb pattern as Bluewave has been harping on for awhile now. That PAC Jet is a powerhouse over that area now. Will it cause the goa lp to be displaced east from typical Nino forcing locations ? Will it alter the MJO typical forcing as well ? Going to be some odd set ups this Winter I believe. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

 I agree with your general ideas. Per ERSST, Oct was +1.66 and Nov is likely going to be in the general vicinity of +2.0. So, for OND to come in +2.0+, Dec would probably need to come in near +2.35, likely a tough task. The better chance may be with NDJ (I’m guessing you agree) with its first month near +2.0. For that, Dec could come in, say, ~+2.1 and Jan, say, ~+1.9 or, say, Dec ~+2.2 and Jan ~+1.8 and a +2.0 ONI is reached either way.

Yea, think a NDJ peak may be a possibility. As of today, I have no reason to change my forecast guess

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saw that. Question is, is this a temporary day to day flux like we’ve seen a bunch of times during this event (warming/cooling) or something bigger? Let’s see what it does into the weekend. If it continues to drop steadily into Saturday/Sunday then maybe something is going on. If I had to guess this is transient and it warms back up again given the big synoptic picture of everything right now but I could be wrong. Going to give it to the weekend to see if this drop doesn’t stop and hold or start warming again

Even with it that large, it is imo likely mainly due to day to day flux. Even the drop of 0.17 in 5 days isn’t too far out of line from a correction considering it had risen ~0.5 in just 10 days. So, it has given 1/3 of that back. Now, if it were to drop too much more from here, I might have second thoughts.

[snowman19]

Even with it that large, it is imo likely mainly due to day to day flux. Even the drop of 0.17 in 5 days isn’t too far out of line from a correction considering it had risen ~0.5 in just 10 days. So, it has given 1/3 of that back. Now, if it were to drop too much more from here, I might have second thoughts.

Yea, besides the projected WWB activity to come and the MJO related assist, I think the feedback process is there and entrenched for further strengthening in December. Also, significant warming ongoing in region 1+2, with the oceanic kelvin wave surfacing off South America. IMO this pushes west

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png

[snowman19]

@Bluewave @Gawx Very likely we see more big warming in December, here’s why: