El Nino 2023-2024

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result.

A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

Yeah, imo the main muting effect for the East if that does transpire would be a formidable -NAO. 

[Daniel Boone]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Yeah, that right there could be problematic if realized and decent Amplitude. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Euro never makes it to Phase 3. 

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Euro never makes it to Phase 3. 

 

Models are barely getting into the warm phases.

[bluewave]

Cruising toward at least our first week at super El Niño levels. Very warm in Nino 3 also. Plus it looks like Nino 4 is approaching the all-time weekly record of +1.7 set in 15-16. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

 

[GaWx]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

Still looks great!

 

It still looks great through early Jan with the EPS mean having the SPV become weaker than the climo avg starting Dec 2nd and it being well below climo Dec 5th through Jan 9th. Keep in mind that ~a week ago, the EPS mean wasn’t going below climo til Dec 25th! This run has a whopping 25% of its members with a major SSW between mid Dec and early Jan, which is the highest of any run yet and is well above the climo chance for that period:

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Cruising toward at least our first week at super El Niño levels. Very warm in Nino 3 also. Plus it looks like Nino 4 is approaching the all-time weekly record of +1.7 set in 15-16. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

 

You are a low key @snowman19clone.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are a low key @snowman19clone.

Will be interesting to see what the next MEI value is. Maybe we’ll finally put the “background nina” concerns to rest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Will be interesting to see what the next MEI value is. Maybe we’ll finally put the “background nina” concerns to rest. 

Probably like .7

[George001]

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super. 

It's more a modoki.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Cruising toward at least our first week at super El Niño levels. Very warm in Nino 3 also. Plus it looks like Nino 4 is approaching the all-time weekly record of +1.7 set in 15-16. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

 

It's not going to be super strong 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's not going to be super strong 

It will get close in terms of ONI, but I expect the forcing to remain more Modoki like on average. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I would be shocked if the winter pattern was even remotely nina like. This nino isn’t weak or even moderate, it’s borderline super. 

Yet we have some very strong forcing in the MJO 2 to 4 regions along with the Nino itself near the Dateline. It’s why the RMM charts aren’t of much use right now. This is like the atmosphere playing a chord instead of individual Nino or Niña notes. So plenty of competing influences to go around with dueling +30 C warm pools in the WPAC and around the Dateline.
 

 

 

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yet we have some very strong forcing in the MJO 2 to 4 regions along with the Nino itself near the Dateline. It’s why the RMM charts aren’t of much use right now. This is like the atmosphere playing a chord instead of individual Nino or Niña notes. So plenty of competing influences to go around with dueling +30 C warm pools in the WPAC and around the Dateline.
 

 

 

That’s consistent with MJO 3-4 in the RMM forecast. You say RMM isn’t much use, but I see it in good agreement with the VP forecast. Also worth noting that the max -VP anomaly is further north into the bay of bengal rather than within 5s-5n of the equator. I don’t think the 30c pool in the wpac will have as much influence as nino 4, which will start to dominate. We see that in the RMM chart because it kills the MJO wave before it goes into the 4-6 areas. That’s a nino pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yet we have some very strong forcing in the MJO 2 to 4 regions along with the Nino itself near the Dateline. It’s why the RMM charts aren’t of much use right now. This is like the atmosphere playing a chord instead of individual Nino or Niña notes. So plenty of competing influences to go around with dueling +30 C warm pools in the WPAC and around the Dateline.
 

 

 

It looks like January 2003, which is just fine with me.

[snowman19]

The RMM charts are going to be sketchy at best. The El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing has taken over. This is a clear sign that it is very strong/strengthening and is completely dominating the tropical convective forcing right now. There is some Pacific MJO activity which is constructively interfering with the Nino and serving to strengthen it further (warming and coupling). This is also what is going to help drive the upcoming flip to a +AAM regime starting around the end of the 1st week of next month

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The RMM charts are going to be sketchy at best. The El Nino standing wave/low frequency forcing has taken over. This is a clear sign that it is very strong/strengthening and is completely dominating the tropical convective forcing right now. There is some Pacific MJO activity which is constructively interfering with the Nino and serving to strengthen it further (warming and coupling). This is also what is going to help drive the upcoming flip to a +AAM regime starting around the end of the 1st week of next month
 

All good news. I want el Nino driving the forcing with the VP stagnant just east of the dateline.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It will get close in terms of ONI, but I expect the forcing to remain more Modoki like on average. 

The fact that he said super is not happening means it definitely is now. The kiss of death has spoken lol

Anyway, you and I actually aren’t that far apart in our trimonthly ONI guesses. You think it’s going to be +1.9C. I think it’s going to be around +2.2C. We have another month to watch it, the peak should be in the end of December/early January time frame

[GaWx]

 It looks like the most recent OHC was readjusted up to ~+1.35, which is about as warm as at any point on this graph and this appears to suggest more warming ahead. On average, Nov is the warmest OHC month though Dec was 0.45-0.50 warmer than Nov in both 1986 and 1991:

 

[snowman19]

Yet we have some very strong forcing in the MJO 2 to 4 regions along with the Nino itself near the Dateline. It’s why the RMM charts aren’t of much use right now. This is like the atmosphere playing a chord instead of individual Nino or Niña notes. So plenty of competing influences to go around with dueling +30 C warm pools in the WPAC and around the Dateline.
 

 

 

That area of +31C east of the dateline is very significant as is the OHC uptick. Big reservoir of very warm subsurface water available to warm the 3.4 SSTs further as we go into December. Looks like the DWKW/WWB response and rewarming in region 1+2 is starting to happen now as the kelvin wave starts to surface

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That area of +31C east of the dateline is very significant as is the OHC uptick. Big reservoir of very warm subsurface water available to warm the 3.4 SSTs further as we go into December. Looks like the DWKW/WWB response and rewarming in region 1+2 is starting to happen now as the kelvin wave starts to surface

This is the first time at the start of December that such a strong El Niño had an extensive +30C SST pool from the Maritime Continent to east of the Dateline. 
 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time at the start of December that such a strong El Niño had an extensive +30C SST pool from the Maritime Continent to east of the Dateline. 
 

 

 

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month 

Cfs has weakened the next WWB over the last 3 days fwiw.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right. Like Paul Roundy pointed out, up until the end of November, we had weak WWBs the entire event which reduced the normal wind evaporation cooling as they went by….this lead to a much warmer and expansive warm pool, which this latest massive WWB has pushed east of the dateline. The DWKW was no slouch either. At this point I’d say a trimonthly ONI of AT LEAST +1.9C is almost a certainty and a super peak has become a very real possibility….more so than at any other point in this event. It all depends on what happens with the follow up WWBs and region 3.4 SSTs over the next month 

My guess is that record +30C warm pool is slowing the forcing down around the Maritime Continent instead of allowing it to move more quickly to the east. 

New run forcing further west

Old run was further east

 

[snowman19]

Cfs has weakened the next WWB over the last 3 days fwiw.

It’s wait and see now. This latest record WWB already did the dirty work of pushing the warm pool east of the dateline, causing a big DWKW which warmed the subsurface and surface and pushed up the OHC. The follow up WWBs in December don’t have to be massive in order to warm 3.4 further. Minor ones will do. Like I said, IMO a +1.9C ONI is pretty much a given, some more work needed for a super trimonthly but not much. As suspected with the thermocline response, the kelvin wave is starting to surface off SA, region 1+2 has started to rewarm

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

It still looks great through early Jan with the EPS mean having the SPV become weaker than the climo avg starting Dec 2nd and it being well below climo Dec 5th through Jan 9th. Keep in mind that ~a week ago, the EPS mean wasn’t going below climo til Dec 25th! This run has a whopping 25% of its members with a major SSW between mid Dec and early Jan, which is the highest of any run yet and is well above the climo chance for that period:

 It looks great once again on the EPS for those who want a weak SPV. Similar to yesterday, the EPS mean goes weaker than climo 12/3 and is well below climo 12/7-end of run (1/10). Not that it is necessary, but this run implies the highest % of members yet with a major SSW (between 12/24 and ~1/11), 30%, which beats the 25% on yesterday’s run. The climo % chance of a major SSW by Jan 11th is only ~20-25%. More specifically, this run has 12% of its members with quite a potent major SSW (dip to <-10), which is tied with the 11/25 run for the highest of any run yet!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It looks great once again on the EPS for those who want a weak SPV. Similar to yesterday, the EPS mean goes weaker than climo 12/3 and is well below climo 12/7-end of run (1/10). Not that it is necessary, but this run implies the highest % of members yet with a major SSW (between 12/24 and ~1/11), 30%, which beats the 25% on yesterday’s run. The climo % chance of a major SSW by Jan 11th is only ~20-25%. More specifically, this run has 12% of its members with quite a potent major SSW (dip to <-10), which is easily the highest of any run yet for that, too!

-QBO's and El Nino's have a high historical mean of +10mb anomaly, and the same visa-versa. I wonder if that factors into a model bias. 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-QBO's and El Nino's have a high historical mean of +10mb anomaly, and the same visa-versa. I wonder if that factors into a model bias. 

 The 11/1-18 Euro Weeklies runs were making me think a weaker than normal Dec SPV model bias quite possibly was in play due to major can kicking. The date of the SPV going below climo slipped from ~12/1 to 12/25 and thus it stayed a month+ out/like a mirage. However, the last 8 runs have come all the way back along with extending into early Jan with the last 5 runs being very impressive with today’s having the most major SSW members (30%). Thus, I no longer think a model bias is in play. Furthermore, there’s modest support on the extended GEFS. And don’t forget that the CFS fwiw is supporting a weak SPV this winter. So, I now fully expect a weak SPV will at least dominate Dec (with or without a major SSW) and may very well go into Jan. Now if we actually get a major SSW late in Dec, it could rebound within a few weeks as they sometimes do.