El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And in this case that would do what to the MJO in terms of phases?

Check out the image of precip anomalies for 1979-2012 for Nov-Mar below: note that the precip bulge center was at 170E on the JFM map whereas it is ~180 on the newer map. The 170E centered map is near phase 6, a typically warm phase. It moves E from there but that still would in theory mean a good bit of 6. On the newer map though it is centered at 180, which is between 6 and 7, and this in theory should mean less of the warm phase 6. I’d love to see the bulge move even further E and thus allow in theory a higher freq of phases 8 and 1:

 

[GaWx]

Still looks great!

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you explain what/where the "Dateline bulge" is?

Had this in my winter outlook which covers it in a nutshell...

 

 

[GaWx]

Per the following 0Z 11/24 GEFS 10 mb map for 12/19, it implies a significantly weaker SPV vs what was implied on the 0Z 11/18 prog (similar to 11/24 vs 11/18 Euro):

11/24 run for 12/19: note how much warmer is W Siberia to NW Can, further N/stronger S AK high, and sig weaker SPV on this vs 11/18 run map below: these strong trends are hints of an increasing shot at a SSW ~12/20:

11/18 run for 12/19:

[George001]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again

 

@brooklynwx99 I NEVER said throw it out. You completely and totally missed my point. Omg it’s impossible here sometimes 

That’s a great point. The guidance that is forecasting the big -NAO is 10+ days out. It’s always good to take any pattern on the models more than like 5 days out with a grain of salt. The models just aren’t accurate that far out. I also was on the +NAO torch December train. I am sticking to that forecast for now, if the big -NAO is still there 5 days out then I’ll have to reassess.

[George001]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao no, your argument is “well it’s on modeling now, what if it’s wrong? what if it just goes away?” 

which is a horrible argument and you know it. come on dude. imagine if Tony came in here if models had the PV over Greenland and was like “well what if they’re all just wrong and we can get a -NAO? the +NAO came up out of nowhere!”

you’d write an impassioned essay using SAT vocab about how much of a dumb weenie is. you’re doing the same, just the other way

I agree with Snowman here, and would agree with Tony in the scenario you mentioned. Even 7 days out is iffy, we monster blizzards 7 days out disappearing all the time in winter. On the other hand, some of our biggest blizzards were complete whiffs or inland runners 7 days out. The modeled blocking doesn’t show up until what 9-10 days out? You know it’s going to change a lot for better or worse, so why shouldn’t we be asking why it could be wrong? 

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s a great point. The guidance that is forecasting the big -NAO is 10+ days out. It’s always good to take any pattern on the models more than like 5 days out with a grain of salt. The models just aren’t accurate that far out. I also was on the +NAO torch December train. I am sticking to that forecast for now, if the big -NAO is still there 5 days out then I’ll have to reassess.

Solid -NAO is 4-5 days out on Euro and GFS. Ensembles are the same

[George001]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Had this in my winter outlook which covers it in a nutshell...

 

 

I’m not entirely sure what I’m looking at here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but the forcing is the blue and purple right? Basically blue and purples = El Niño forcing, and you would expect more purple and for the blue and purple area to be more expansive in stronger events? The forcing looks to be weaker than 97 and 82, but it isn’t weak. It’s definitely farther west, but it’s stronger than 02 and 09. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Solid -NAO is 4-5 days out on Euro and GFS. Ensembles are the same

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

[griteater]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

I called for AO and NAO to be positive in Dec as well (forecast from 11/8), and negative averaged for Jan-Mar

[griteater]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not entirely sure what I’m looking at here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but the forcing is the blue and purple right? Basically blue and purples = El Niño forcing, and you would expect more purple and for the blue and purple area to be more expansive in stronger events? The forcing looks to be weaker than 97 and 82, but it isn’t weak. It’s definitely farther west, but it’s stronger than 02 and 09. 

-VP (blue/purple) is a measurement of upper level divergence which helps with rising motion, which fosters anomalous convection / thunderstorms in the tropics (and yeah, that is sometimes referred to as forcing..as in, forcing for rising motion and convection). +VP (yellow/red) is the opposite, upper level convergence which leads to sinking motion / anomalous subsidence / less than normal convection.  Those maps are averaged over 3 months (base pattern), but the MJO and other MJO like waves are running atop the base pattern at quicker timescales, and those can enhance or suppress the base pattern as they travel west to east in the tropics.  The farther east and stronger -VP in the east-based ninos tends to place the nino climo Aleutian Low closer to the west coast, and make it stronger / more expansive (warmer across the CONUS) 

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

I called for AO and NAO to be positive in Dec as well (forecast from 11/8), and negative averaged for Jan-Mar

 

CFS forecasts -AO for entire month of DEC now

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

CFS forecasts -AO foe entire month of DEC now

 

Now I'm not sure if it's an apples to apples Cfs comparison to the weathermodels site posted by stadiumwave, but to my eyes the latest Cfs runs off the Tropical Tidbits site are showing January and February 10mb maps with a weaker PV than December.  All 3 months are below.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Now I'm not sure if it's an apples to apples Cfs comparison to the weathermodels site posted by stadiumwave, but to my eyes the latest Cfs runs off the Tropical Tidbits site are showing January and February 10mb maps with a weaker PV than December.  All 3 months are below.

CFS prog vs Normal 10 mb N Pole temp: (C)/anomaly

Dec -58 vs -70/ +12

Jan -51 vs -60/+9

Feb -49 vs -55/+6

 So, latest CFS has DJF N Pole 10 mb temp anomaly at +9 C implying a weak SPV for the winter.

[GaWx]

WCS PDO resumes large daily rises with latest -0.72 vs -0.86 prior day vs ~-1.28 7 days ago

(Edit for 11/25 WCS: PDO -0.77, Nino 3.4 +1.10)

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

I stand corrected. Yeah, looks like I’ll have to reassess the whole +NAO December idea.

I wouldn't bail on that yet....we can have big blocks in December and still average a slightly positive NAO in the monthly mean...see last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

CFS forecasts -AO for entire month of DEC now

 

This I can buy, but I am still skeptical of month long -NAO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This I can buy, but I am still skeptical of month long -NAO.

-NAO's have certainly been harder to stick lately, for the last few decades. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't bail on that yet....we can have big blocks in December and still average a slightly positive NAO in the monthly mean...see last year.

Huge test coming up….Don S @donsutherland1 mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huge test coming up….Don S mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huge test coming up….Don S mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

I still think we see a mild stretch mid month...guidance has probably over adjusted to a degree.

[stadiumwave]

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think we see a mild stretch mid month...guidance has probably over adjusted to a degree.

A few days

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Huge test coming up….Don S mentioned this last night…we are about to see a big +AAM spike (Nino forcing) coming up at the end of the 1st week of December as the Pacific MJO wave constructively interferes with the El Niño…Do we see a “classic” Nino December response thereafter once the AAM flips positive?

If the weak PV forecasts are correct, the "classic" Niño response you are referring to will have its hands tied around its back. And with the Eps, Gefs, Geps, and Cfs all supporting the weak PV, it looks unlikely imho.

[stadiumwave]

15 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

#1 -2009-10...I know you're all familar with.

#2 1939-40...I'll post DJF & then a blend with 2009-10

 

DJF Blend

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few days

Right. Just like your declaration a couple of weeks ago that the Nino was rapidly weakening and falling apart lol

[snowman19]

If the weak PV forecasts are correct, the "classic" Niño response you are referring to will have its hands tied around its back. And with the Eps, Gefs, Geps, and Cfs all supporting the weak PV, it looks unlikely imho.

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result.

A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result.

A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

the SPV and TPV are not always well coupled. we are already seeing this

the fact that such an anomalous -NAO is going to develop bodes well for the entire winter. and a weak SPV does at least help blocking develop when combined with the -QBO and Nino forcing

[roardog]

If the AAM is going to go positive at the end of the first week of December, how long does that even take to start to change the northern hemisphere pattern if it even does? I thought most posters here wanted a Nino response on the Pacific side. I get that Snowman is trying to get people worried about a warm December because that’s what he does but considering most posters here don’t want a Nina like Pacific, I’m not sure what the problem is. lol

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if the weak SPV forecasts are correct, it would have to get weak and downwell into the lowest part of the stratosphere and couple with the troposphere to produce the desired result.

A +AAM regime setting up would definitely support a Nino response on the PAC side

There's nothing definite in weather. Essentially everyone was calling for a warm December, including the showman Webb. Now look at his about face. Lack humility in weather forecasting, be ready to be humiliated.