El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

The east based or dual forcing scenario isn’t a convincing one to me, yet. 

We still have a huge pool of >30c ssts east of the dateline. Cherry picking model runs aside, I think the mean forcing throughout the winter will be on/near the pool with the warmest ssts (and where the largest sst anomalies are).

If you loop thru those GEFS VP images, the VP just rolls steady west to east thru the full loop. So it’s essentially acting like we are in ENSO neutral. In general, you would expect it to slow down and spend a bit more time in the typical El Niño zones as it treks thru given the ENSO state, but the tropical forcing has been a bit on the fast side all fall so not sure what to make of it 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

SON should come in at 1.7 next week.

If 3 and 3.4 stay up, OND should come in at 1.9 and that’ll likely be the trimonthly peak. 

Agree.

[frd]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January 2003 looks like it had the dual forcing that Chris pointed out.

 

If using similiar rollovers would that not lead to/and or support a higher probability of MECS later in Jan and early Feb ? 

I am liking the overall trends here with the Pac and the HL. Hopefully, no fakeouts this winter season.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

If using similiar rollovers would that not lead to/and or support a higher probability of MECS later in Jan and early Feb ? 

I am liking the overall trends here with the Pac and the HL. Hopefully, no fakeouts this winter season.  

 

Yea, but I would keep expectations in check for at least the first half of December.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course, just in time for Christmas Eve  

My feeling on that is that its probably temporary, as we also saw a period of east-based forcing during the fall, as well...but it just didn't last. Also, if you recall, January 2016 had a period of Modoki like forcing that coincided with the blizzard, so we need to remember that there are periods that deviate from the DM mean state....everyone agrees that is in fact a basin-wide event, and not a true Modoki, so some stretches of east-based forcing shouldn't shock anyone.

As long as we can line up some decent conditions for a rogue snowstorm or two by February not overly concerned about what happens early on during most El Niños. Don’t mind delayed as long as it isn’t denied.

[GaWx]

On 11/23/2023 at 12:18 PM, GaWx said:

The latest WCS Nino 3.4 OISST rose from +2.12 two days ago to +2.15 yesterday to +2.19 today (as of 11/22). So, although it appeared warming was slowing some yesterday, it is still steadily warming. So, look for a further warming on today’s cyclonicwx graph, too.

 So, as we approach +2.20 on OISST, one might wonder if that, alone, makes an unrounded +2.00+ ONI peak likely. My opinion is that that, alone, doesn’t. On the dailies, a +2.40ish daily peak is probably going to be needed based loosely on the past. Even on the weeklies, a +2.3 is probably going to be needed based on the last 5 Nino’s. We do have a good shot at a +2.10 week in the next release. 

 So, to get the +2.00 peak ONI, the dailies likely need to warm another 0.20 or so. With today’s warming, we’re likely going to have a +1.80 or so ONI peak at the minimum.

 The WCS daily PDO major rise of the last two days took a break with it at -0.86 vs -0.84 yesterday.

Big drop in OISST 3.4 on WCS from +2.19 yesterday to +2.11 today: last few days 2.12 to 2.15 to 2.19 to 2.11. With this drop and assuming cyclonicwx also shows a significant drop today, that would mean at least a short term top of ~+2.20 has occurred. In order for there to ever be a +2.00 ONI peak, there will almost certainly need to be a higher daily peak later as just the math and history, combined, says that +2.20 daily peak on OISST is very likely not going to be enough to support a 3 month +2.00+ on ERSST. We likely now have had enough warmth to get a +1.80 ONI peak but probably not enough yet to get even a +1.90 ONI per the math. Based on the past, we probably need a daily peak near +2.40 for @snowman19to get an unrounded +2.00 trimonthly and thus declare victory. There’s still another month or so for that possibility, but a possibility is all that is right now and this sudden reversal, itself, was not helpful for that chance obviously:

 

Edit: PS PDO ~same as yesterday’s update and is at -0.84.

 Let’s see what cyclonicwx OISST has today for 3.4! Will it also have a big drop??

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

How does this El Nino end as forecast to in Summer 2024?  Looking at the forcing posts earlier, the change in the Walker Circulation would cause weak Easterlies or WWBs forever.  But obviously it doesn't, because El Nino's do end.  What is the key signal I should be looking for next Spring/Summer to know Nino is ending?

[GaWx]

Here it is, cyclonicwx also fell 0.08 and is now back down to 2.12, very close to WCS’ 2.11:

[snowman19]

Big drop in OISST 3.4 on WCS from +2.19 yesterday to +2.11 today: last few days 2.12 to 2.15 to 2.19 to 2.11. With this drop and assuming cyclonicwx also shows a significant drop today, that would mean at least a short term top of ~+2.20 has occurred. In order for there to ever be a +2.00 ONI peak, there will almost certainly need to be a higher daily peak later as just the math and history, combined, says that +2.20 daily peak on OISST is very likely not going to be enough to support a 3 month +2.00+ on ERSST. We likely now have had enough warmth to get a +1.80 ONI peak but probably not enough yet to get even a +1.90 ONI per the math. Based on the past, we probably need a daily peak near +2.40 for [mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]to get an unrounded +2.00 trimonthly and thus declare victory. There’s still another month or so for that possibility, but a possibility is all that is right now and this sudden reversal, itself, was not helpful for that chance obviously:

 
Edit: PS PDO ~same as yesterday’s update and is at -0.84.
 Let’s see what cyclonicwx OISST has today for 3.4! Will it also have a big drop??

Cyclonicwx is +2.12 OISST in region 3.4. Region 3 is still at +2.3C. IMO this is just a brief daily drop. Given what is going on now with the constructive MJO interference, which will lead to more WWB/downwelling activity, warm pool (+31C) migration into 3.4, big uptick in the OHC, I fully expect more warming in both the 3.4 and 3 regions. My guess is we top out at a +2.4C or +2.5C reading for this event. We still have awhile to go

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Here it is, cyclonicwx also fell 0.08 and is now back down to 2.12, very close to WCS’ 2.11:

I’m not altering my forecast based on day to day changes, rises, falls, if I did that, I would have changed it 20 times already since August. So far, people have declared this Nino dead, said it peaked already, it’s weakening, never going to warm above +2C, the OHC was supposedly dead, no more warming, done. The +IOD was also declared dead, it’s bootleg, it’s not going to be a top event. The warm pool wasn’t going to migrate either nor was the WPAC going to cool yet here we are. 

It’s noise. We need to look at the grand scheme of things, like you said we still have a month to go here with ENSO and I see absolutely no reason to change my forecast. I’m confident it’s going to warm further. This event means business:

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Cyclonicwx is +2.12 OISST in region 3.4. Region 3 is still at +2.3C. IMO this is just a brief daily drop. Given what is going on now with the constructive MJO interference, which will lead to more WWB/downwelling activity, warm pool (+31C) migration into 3.4, big uptick in the OHC, I fully expect more warming in both the 3.4 and 3 regions. My guess is we top out at a +2.4C or +2.5C reading for this event. We still have awhile to go

We do have at least a month or so to get the final answer. But imho if you were being perfectly honest, you’d admit that todays 0.08 drops were not what you wanted to see/not helpful to chances of ever seeing a+2.4+ daily, even if they reduced the chance just modestly. To improve your quality as a poster, I’d hope to see more objectivity from you as opposed to you just sounding one sided all the time. It is like you never acknowledge that things can be going against your predictions. You’ve been great for this thread and the thread wouldn’t be the same without you. I never make fun of you. But I feel you’d be a better contributor if you’d at least better acknowledge when things go the other way. 

[snowman19]

We do have at least a month or so to get the final answer. But imho if you were being perfectly honest, you’d admit that todays 0.08 drops were not what you wanted to see/not helpful to chances of ever seeing a+2.4+ daily, even if they reduced the chance just modestly. To improve your quality as a poster, I’d hope to see more objectivity from you as opposed to you just sounding one sided all the time. It is like you never acknowledge that things can be going against your predictions. You’ve been great for this thread and the thread wouldn’t be the same without you. I never make fun of you. But I feel you’d be a better contributor if you’d at least better acknowledge when things go the other way. 

TBH things have been going against my prediction for months and months. Everyone else points them out for me so I really didn’t think it was necessary to repeat them. If that’s how I sounded then that wasn’t my intention but if I did nothing but change my forecast, I would look like a fool. I thought it was better to stick to my guns and not waver in what I’ve always thought the ultimate outcome would be. My forecast has been the outlier on here and I’m sure it still is. Did it drop today? Yes of course and I posted that but IMO this is noise, like what has been going on for awhile with this event

[snowman19]

[brooklynwx99]

this event is already not really acting canonical given its strength. strong to super Ninos often feature strong +NAO patterns… that is likely not the case this month

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this event is already not really acting canonical given its strength. strong to super Ninos often feature strong +NAO patterns… that is likely not the case this month

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again

 

@brooklynwx99 I NEVER said throw it out. You completely and totally missed my point. Omg it’s impossible here sometimes 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again

okay, so let’s just throw every single piece of higher skill guidance out? that’s not how you’re supposed to forecast

and the models have not been flip flopping. they are all in agreement on a strong west based -NAO block that is both strengthening and moving forward in time. even Webb has conceded in that regard

[brooklynwx99]

you also misrepresented what i said. I didn’t say that there would be a massive -NAO month (although it likely ends up a tad negative). i said that canonical strong, especially super events feature strong +NAO patterns. that is likely not the case this month

[brooklynwx99]

lmao no, your argument is “well it’s on modeling now, what if it’s wrong? what if it just goes away?” 

which is a horrible argument and you know it. come on dude. imagine if Tony came in here if models had the PV over Greenland and was like “well what if they’re all just wrong and we can get a -NAO? the +NAO came up out of nowhere!”

you’d write an impassioned essay using SAT vocab about how much of a dumb weenie is. you’re doing the same, just the other way

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. 

https://ibb.co/jyXz36R

And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

We do have at least a month or so to get the final answer. But imho if you were being perfectly honest, you’d admit that todays 0.08 drops were not what you wanted to see/not helpful to chances of ever seeing a+2.4+ daily, even if they reduced the chance just modestly. To improve your quality as a poster, I’d hope to see more objectivity from you as opposed to you just sounding one sided all the time. It is like you never acknowledge that things can be going against your predictions. You’ve been great for this thread and the thread wouldn’t be the same without you. I never make fun of you. But I feel you’d be a better contributor if you’d at least better acknowledge when things go the other way. 

Yes, respect other's.. throwing weenies, lol, at those that's been in the business longer than you've been alive is just low imo. 

     He has some good discussion if like you said, would not be so one sided . 

[Rhino16]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. 

https://ibb.co/jyXz36R

And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year. 

How cold is the western subsurface normally in other strong events around this time? What’s the depth to watch, 0-300m?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

How cold is the western subsurface normally in other strong events around this time? What’s the depth to watch, 0-300m?

In a lot of cases, it has been just as strong as the warmth is in the eastern subsurface. Some years like 1972 had mostly negative subsurface waters, while the surface was Strong Nino.  0-300m, yes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not altering my forecast based on day to day changes, rises, falls, if I did that, I would have changed it 20 times already since August. So far, people have declared this Nino dead, said it peaked already, it’s weakening, never going to warm above +2C, the OHC was supposedly dead, no more warming, done. The +IOD was also declared dead, it’s bootleg, it’s not going to be a top event. The warm pool wasn’t going to migrate either nor was the WPAC going to cool yet here we are. 

It’s noise. We need to look at the grand scheme of things, like you said we still have a month to go here with ENSO and I see absolutely no reason to change my forecast. I’m confident it’s going to warm further. This event means business:

 

 

 

 

I agree with you on the daily analysis. ...drives me nuts lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Devil’s advocate, it hasn’t happened yet. Given how horrible the models were last winter, why are we so sure there’s actually going to be this huge west-based -NAO December? Could this not completely fall apart? I mean, it appeared out of nowhere, could it not disappear as we get closer? Would anyone actually be shocked if it did? The EPS isn’t anything like what it used to be. It and the other models have been flip flopping around like fish out of water. I’d be real careful saying a -NAO December is a forgone conclusion given the abysmal performance of the ensembles over the last few winters. They are all “consistently showing it” until they are not. A lot of people have gotten burned doing this over and over again

 

@brooklynwx99 I NEVER said throw it out. You completely and totally missed my point. Omg it’s impossible here sometimes 

The NAO verified last December...the Pacific negated it. 

[griteater]

Euro Weeklies 32-day precipitation anomaly for Dec 8 to Jan 9…the Dateline bulge lives on

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. 

https://ibb.co/jyXz36R

And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year. 

We are going to see another el Nino next year IMO....since 1950, all there cases of el Nino following 3 consecutive cold ENSO events doubled up on warm ENSO .

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies 32-day precipitation anomaly for Dec 8 to Jan 9…the Dateline bulge lives on

Comparing 12/8-1/9 with the Nov 1st prog for JFM, the Dateline bulge has lived on but also the center of it has moved E

JFM: bulge max 170W to 150E with mean 170E:

 Dec 8-Jan 9: centered further E at ~180; E GOM/SE US +anoms stronger 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Comparing 12/8-1/9 with the Nov 1st prog for JFM, the Dateline bulge has lived on but also the center of it has moved E

JFM: bulge max 170W to 150E with mean 170E:

 Dec 8-Jan 9: centered further E at ~180; E GOM/SE US +anoms stronger 

Could you explain what/where the "Dateline bulge" is?

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Could you explain what/where the "Dateline bulge" is?

I’m sure @griteatercan explain the precip anomaly bulge way better than me. After all, I saw it for the first time when he posted that JFM Euro precip anomaly map. It appears to possibly be associated with where upper level forcing/OLR is greatest/where MJO is most favored. Maybe it is largely there due to very warm water being most widespread there? Warmer SSTs often lead to more convection. I know that the W portion of 3.4/E part of 4 have warmed a good bit recently due to the strong WWB.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’m sure @griteatercan explain the precip anomaly bulge way better than me. After all, I saw it for the first time when he posted that JFM Euro precip anomaly map. It appears to possibly be associated with where upper level forcing/OLR is greatest/where MJO is most favored. Maybe it is largely there due to very warm water being most widespread there? Warmer SSTs often lead to more convection.

And in this case that would do what to the MJO in terms of phases?