El Nino 2023-2024

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowman must have missed this Webber tweet.

Maybe because his hero posted a tweet that isn’t about a torch December? Must be upsetting.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's the biggest factor. Winters in the east have sucked because of a powerful Pacific jet and western trough 

Doesn't matter if the AO/NAO are negative if not severely negative if the Pacific is garbage. You just get colder rainstorms. 

I think Chuck is mostly correct that extra tropical SSTs are vastly overrated in terms of their effect on the hemispheric pattern. They are more of a result. They can maybe have some feedback all else equal, but they aren’t primary drivers.  

[jconsor]

Dec Modoki Ninos are much more likely to have a -NAO than east-based Ninos.  Basin-Wide Ninos have a slight tendency toward +NAO.

Given Eric Webb's recent tweet about the implications of Dec NAO in Ninos on the pattern during the rest of the winter, will be very interesting to watch the NAO trends as Dec goes on.
 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Dec Modoki Ninos are much more likely to have a -NAO than east-based Ninos.  Basin-Wide Ninos have a slight tendency toward +NAO.

Given Eric Webb's recent tweet about the implications of Dec NAO in Ninos on the pattern during the rest of the winter, will be very interesting to watch the NAO trends as Dec goes on.
 

perhaps the speculation that this may, indeed, act like a Modoki event due to the WPAC warm pool might not be so ridiculous? we shall see 

[mitchnick]

As someone (Ga or Griteater I believe) posted earlier about another westerly burst in December, Cfs and Gfs are both showing a relaxation of westerlies until mid December.  Cfs is really gung-ho with the December burst as of now.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

That is a very good question. I am more in the warmer winters  have  become more frequent camp  since the super El Niño. But we don’t have enough data yet to say it has become permanent.  It’s just that the warming WPAC and Western Atlantic have loaded the dice for more warmer outcomes. I still think we’ll eventually get another cold winter in the Northeast. Just that it won’t quite be to the magnitude of what we saw during recent cold winters like 14-15 and 02-03. To get a colder pattern I think we would need to get more of a 500 mb type +PDO pattern like we got in January 22 over several months. I am still trying to figure out how we got that pattern with such a strong -PDO. But my guess is that there is a section of the WPAC near 15N that can override the warmer signal that usually dominates when the entire WPAC is so warm. That is what some of the papers said after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. I would also like to know why that 13-14 and 14-15 record Western ridge pattern has shifted to the warm season instead of winter leading to record heat and drought out West. So in short, I don’t really know how we could confidently forecast a cold Northeast winter ahead of time absent a strong +PDO and Modoki signature like we got in 14-15. Our next cold winter may just turn out to be a pleasant surprise when forecasts  goes warm again. Though it’s possible someone will find an early season signal and go cold and get it correct.

13-14 was the most severe winter on record at Detroit. 14-15 smashed records in the east while the midwest had the coldest Feb since 1875 or of all recorded history (depending on location). In 2019 a record smashing arctic blast hit the midwest, and it was record smashing during already what is the coldest part of the year. And in Feb 2021 Texas lost their shit when temp records broke by 20+ degrees in the Arctic blast. That is all less than a decade ago.

 

There is absolutely no reason to believe that when the ingredients are right the east won't have a brutally cold winter that's on par with other cold winters of the past few decades. And no, I'm NOT saying I think that happens this winter. And no, I'm not denying anything (ugh I hate that I even added that part in there, like it's mandatory on here when you talk of cold weather).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

perhaps the speculation that this may, indeed, act like a Modoki event due to the WPAC warm pool might not be so ridiculous? we shall see 

Larry Cosgrove, retired met, seems to think Modoki:

Quote

This appears to be a west-based "Modoki: event taking shape, as waters near the Galapagos Islands are cooling. El Nino measures that are strongest in sectors 4 and 3.4 favor colder outcomes in the eastern two-thirds of North America.

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

13-14 was the most severe winter on record at Detroit. 14-15 smashed records in the east while the midwest had the coldest Feb since 1875 or of all recorded history (depending on location). In 2019 a record smashing arctic blast hit the midwest, and it was record smashing during already what is the coldest part of the year. And in Feb 2021 Texas lost their shit when temp records broke by 20+ degrees in the Arctic blast. That is all less than a decade ago.

 

There is absolutely no reason to believe that when the ingredients are right the east won't have a brutally cold winter that's on par with other cold winters of the past few decades. And no, I'm NOT saying I think that happens this winter. And no, I'm not denying anything (ugh I hate that I even added that part in there, like it's mandatory on here when you talk of cold weather).

Natural variability can still trump CC on smaller time spans. Even seasonal chunks like 3 months. 
 

2014-15 wasn’t the coldest DJF up here but it was indeed the coldest JFM on record going back to the late 1800s. So it can happen…it’s just harder than it would’ve been decades ago. I remember thinking Feb 1934 would never be broken up here…then it happened in 2015. 

[snowman19]

Maybe because his hero posted a tweet that isn’t about a torch December? Must be upsetting.

Not sure exactly what this attack on me is about? I’ve never once uttered a bad word about you on here as long as I’ve been a member. If you’ve been reading my posts, I’ve been all in on a very good February. And I’ll take Eric Webb’s word any day over weenie Mets Steve D, Margavage, Bastardi, Margusity or Pann. Cosgrove is now starting to fit right into that fold too

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not sure exactly what this attack on me is about? I’ve never once uttered a bad word about you on here as long as I’ve been a member. If you’ve been reading my posts, I’ve been all in on a very good February. And I’ll take Eric Webb’s word any day over weenie Mets Steve D, Margavage, Bastardi, Margusity or Pann. Cosgrove is now starting to fit right into that fold too

Relax I’m kidding. But you definitely seem to be on the torch train with Webb. For the record I was planning on December to be mild overall but workable here.  But Webb isn’t seeing the whole picture imo.

[snowman19]

The (finally) WPAC cooling showing up is very notable. More warming to come, we have not seen the peak yet. Warm pool east of the dateline, record WWB/DWKW, which has yet to surface, major subsurface warming and the OHC going up. Bjerknes feedback is very clearly entrenched and the SOI has fallen to almost -20 again. With very likely more WWB/s to come mid-late December, I stand by my trimonthly ONI super peak. This event will not be as strong as 97-98 or 15-16 obviously. What that ultimately means for the winter’s sensible weather is anyone’s guess at this point. I will say this…background AGW or not, the migration of the warm pool and SSTs above +2C in regions 3.4 and 3 is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and there will be a very strong atmospheric response to this; as far as that goes, I can say with a lot of confidence, I have no doubt

[GaWx]

The latest WCS Nino 3.4 OISST rose from +2.12 two days ago to +2.15 yesterday to +2.19 today (as of 11/22). So, although it appeared warming was slowing some yesterday, it is still steadily warming. So, look for a further warming on today’s cyclonicwx graph, too.

 So, as we approach +2.20 on OISST, one might wonder if that, alone, makes an unrounded +2.00+ ONI peak likely. My opinion is that that, alone, doesn’t. On the dailies, a +2.40ish daily peak is probably going to be needed based loosely on the past. Even on the weeklies, a +2.3 is probably going to be needed based on the last 5 Nino’s. We do have a good shot at a +2.10 week in the next release. 

 So, to get the +2.00 peak ONI, the dailies likely need to warm another 0.20 or so. With today’s warming, we’re likely going to have a +1.80 or so ONI peak at the minimum.

 The WCS daily PDO major rise of the last two days took a break with it at -0.86 vs -0.84 yesterday.

[snowman19]

The latest WCS Nino 3.4 OISST rose from +2.12 two days ago to +2.15 yesterday to +2.19 today (as of 11/22). So, although it appeared warming was slowing some yesterday, it is still steadily warming. So, look for a further warming on today’s cyclonicwx graph, too.
 So, as we approach +2.20 on OISST, one might wonder if that, alone, makes an unrounded +2.00+ ONI peak likely. My opinion is that that, alone, doesn’t. On the dailies, a +2.40ish daily peak is probably going to be needed based loosely on the past. Even on the weeklies, a +2.3 is probably going to be needed. We do have a good shot at a +2.10 week in the next release. 

 So, to get the +2.00 peak ONI, the dailies likely need to warm another 0.20 or so. With today’s warming, we’re likely going to have a +1.80 or so ONI peak at the minimum.
 The WCS daily PDO major rise of the last two days took a break with it at -0.86 vs -0.84 yesterday.

IMO it hits over +2.4C on the dailies (possibly the weeklies) sometime in December. Given how everything is transpiring, I don’t think a late December/January peak with an ONI of +2.1C to +2.3C is that far fetched

[GaWx]

Cyclonicwx’s Nino temps: 11/24 update

1+2: +2.05

3: +2.40

3.4: +2.20 (vs +2.16 yesterday and WCS’ +2.19)

4: +1.48

[mitchnick]

It is the Cfs, but still...

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean is similar with the weak Dec SPV of yesterday’s run. The EPS mean 60N wind for Dec 7-31 as a whole is at only ~2/3 of the longterm climo mean for Dec. 7-31:

li

[snowman19]

More proof that this El Niño is about to strengthen even more….the Bjerknes feedback loop is intensifying further, Walker cell weakening, El Niño standing wave/low frequency forcing taking over. This Pacific MJO pulse is going to constructively interfere with the El Niño and cause more WWBs/DWKW activity. I had said we may see a +2.4C reading on the weeklies next month…now I question whether or not we may see a +2.5C reading on one of the weeklies in December, we would only be talking a +0.3 warming at this point since Nino 3.4 is +2.2C right now. The subsurface and surface warming continues, SOI continues to be strongly negative. Here is a very good explanation:
 

 

 

@bluewave

 

[GaWx]

 NOAA OHC to 300m (1991-2020 climo, 5N to 5S) readjusted warmer and warming further:

Brand new:

From just yesterday: note the adjustment up since then

[chubbs]

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Natural variability can still trump CC on smaller time spans. Even seasonal chunks like 3 months. 
 

2014-15 wasn’t the coldest DJF up here but it was indeed the coldest JFM on record going back to the late 1800s. So it can happen…it’s just harder than it would’ve been decades ago. I remember thinking Feb 1934 would never be broken up here…then it happened in 2015. 

After reading the thread was interested in checking the Detroit numbers, below is Detroit Metro with obs back to 1959.  Looks similar to what we see locally, about 5F of winter warming. Slow starts to add up after half a century.

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The (finally) WPAC cooling showing up is very notable. More warming to come, we have not seen the peak yet. Warm pool east of the dateline, record WWB/DWKW, which has yet to surface, major subsurface warming and the OHC going up. Bjerknes feedback is very clearly entrenched and the SOI has fallen to almost -20 again. With very likely more WWB/s to come mid-late December, I stand by my trimonthly ONI super peak. This event will not be as strong as 97-98 or 15-16 obviously. What that ultimately means for the winter’s sensible weather is anyone’s guess at this point. I will say this…background AGW or not, the migration of the warm pool and SSTs above +2C in regions 3.4 and 3 is going to dramatically alter the global heat budget and there will be a very strong atmospheric response to this; as far as that goes, I can say with a lot of confidence, I have no doubt

It looks like the early part of December features dual forcing from the Maritime Continent back to just east of the Dateline. Not that I put a ton of stock in these extended weekly model extensions, but the GEFS finally has some east based forcing in late December like we saw in 97-98. This time period is still highly speculative. But the model may be responding to the sharp increase in Nino 3 SSTs.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the early part of December features dual forcing from the Maritime Continent back to just east of the Dateline. Not that I put a ton of stock in these extended weekly model extensions, but the GEFS finally has some east based forcing in late December like we saw in 97-98. This time period is still highly speculative. But the model may be responding to the sharp increase in Nino 3 SSTs.

 

Of course, just in time for Christmas Eve  

My feeling on that is that its probably temporary, as we also saw a period of east-based forcing during the fall, as well...but it just didn't last. Also, if you recall, January 2016 had a period of Modoki like forcing that coincided with the blizzard, so we need to remember that there are periods that deviate from the DM mean state....everyone agrees that is in fact a basin-wide event, and not a true Modoki, so some stretches of east-based forcing shouldn't shock anyone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see a thaw in early January before we go more favorable again later in the month.

[frd]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see a thaw in early January before we go more favorable again later in the month.

Do you believe the pattern evolving with an improved Pac leads to a cold stormy outlook  for the East in mid December,  leading up to and including the holidays?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, frd said:

Do you believe the pattern evolving with an improved Pac leads to a cold stormy outlook  for the East in mid December,  leading up to and including the holidays?  

I need to look at it more, but I expect the month to be serviceable...maybe normal snowfall for the coast and above inland? I don't feel as though it will be a cold month, but I don't expect a blow torch that is devoid of snow near the coast. I do expect a significant storm around the holidays.

[40/70 Benchmark]

January 2003 looks like it had the dual forcing that Chris pointed out.

[Terpeast]

The east based or dual forcing scenario isn’t a convincing one to me, yet. 

We still have a huge pool of >30c ssts east of the dateline. Cherry picking model runs aside, I think the mean forcing throughout the winter will be on/near the pool with the warmest ssts (and where the largest sst anomalies are).

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The east based or dual forcing scenario isn’t a convincing one to me, yet. 

We still have a huge pool of >30c ssts east of the dateline. Cherry picking model runs aside, I think the mean forcing throughout the winter will be on/near the pool with the warmest ssts (and where the largest sst anomalies are).

Agreed. But to be fair, no one expects wall-to-wall cold and snow, so I have no issue with some periods of east-based forcing....makes sense to me....just like 2016 wasn't endless east-based forcing, this one won't be endless Modoki forcing....they are both basin-wide events.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 NOAA OHC to 300m (1991-2020 climo, 5N to 5S) readjusted warmer and warming further:
Brand new:

From just yesterday: note the adjustment up since then

The warming in both regions 3 and 3.4 has been extremely impressive as has this rise in OHC, which I thought would happen by late this month. I think we may very well see a weekly reading of +2.1C in region 3.4 from the CPC Monday. Also starting to think there’s a chance at a +2.5C weekly reading at some point next month. More WWBs/warming/downwelling activity to come as this current Pacific MJO constructively interferes with the Nino, as I pointed out earlier

 

@Terpeast If this Nino tops out at +1.9C or +2.2C, is that really going to make that huge of a difference? We are talking a difference of +0.3 at that point. I mean the atmosphere isn’t going to have a massively different reaction between a high-end strong peak and a low-end super peak. It’s going to react to the big change in the global heat budget and SSTs we are seeing with the migration of the warm pool

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The warming in both regions 3 and 3.4 has been extremely impressive as has this rise in OHC, which I thought would happen by late this month. I think we may very well see a weekly reading of +2.1C in region 3.4 from the CPC Monday. Also starting to think there’s a chance at a +2.5C weekly reading at some point next month. More WWBs/warming/downwelling activity to come as this current Pacific MJO constructively interferes with the Nino, as I pointed out earlier

May end up with an ONI near the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 range.

[Terpeast]

SON should come in at 1.7 next week.

If 3 and 3.4 stay up, OND should come in at 1.9 and that’ll likely be the trimonthly peak.