El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This background state makes me think that once the WWB hits this Nino is really going to go into overdrive and take off, our background state now is way warmer than 1997 and 1982 and even 2015

The thing I would question is how is this El Nino really going to go. Near record levels of -PDO with no flip imminent, almost every portion of the tropics showing anomalous warmth with right now 1+2 showing the highest anomalous warmth. We are barely ticking things over into weak El Nino territory in 4/3.4/3 while 1+2 has remained near strong to super levels. The lack of cooling around Australia and the maritime is important to note as well as the warming up again of the Atlantic tropical waters. If you want the main focus of warming and forcing to be with the central an eastern Pacific these other factors you certainly do not want to see. 

It will be again interesting to watch the next month to see what happens. If the MJO wave dies into null it will be probably hard to stop the kelvin wave associated with the WWB but just how much influence will it have other than opening up the potential for a bit more warming or sustaining the East Pac El Nino signal with a slight reduction in trades.

This is certainly a flavor of ENSO we have not seen in quite some time or in general has not happened. Unfortunately I wanna say global SSTs are really throwing things off. If we had this exact same setup say 40 years ago would we have had the 1+2 region pushing 2.5-3C above average? I feel it may have been a push to 1-1.5C in 1+2 and then a slow warm up across the eastern Pac which we all would have then said ok looks like maybe a weak to moderate El Nino but with again on average SSTs being almost 1-1.5C above average globally are we really going to push strong to super status? We should be taking off in the next month if we are to match AMJ of 57-58, 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16. Not many times do we have a situation like this coming off a La Nina (triple dip at that) and going straight into a strong or super Nino. Most of the time we have some neutral to weak status on either side of the ENSO spectrum before we go full bore into strong and super. Just some things to think about who knows this could really throw us for a curveball this year yet. Personally would like to wait until we get this WWB through to see how the ocean and atmosphere react.

[bluewave]

6 out of the last 9 El Niño winters  have been warmer than average during the most recent 30 year climate normals era. The only 3 colder ones with much above normal snowfall were modokis in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15. 5 of the warner 6 were basin wide or east based. Really hesitant to even look at El Niños before 1990 for specifics since the climate base state has warmed so much since then. 2 out of the 6 warmer winters had above normal snowfall. But the other 4 were well below average on the snowfall. 04-05 was a modoki with extensive warmth west of New England and a snowier outcome. The record warm 15-16 had a snowy end when the forcing became more west based from late January into early February. 
 

 

 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

6 out of the last 9 El Niño winters  have been warmer than average during the most recent 30 year climate normals era. The only 3 colder ones with much above normal snowfall a were modokis. Most of the warner 6 were basin wide or east based. Really hesitant to even look at El Niño’s before 1990 since the climate base state has warmed so much since then.
 

 

 

 

 

Very much agree with the before 1990 sentiment. We have overall been in a -PDO pattern since about 2000 briefly pushing neutral positive for 02-03, 09-10, and was already well positive for 15-16. I would argue 02-03 and 09-10 stick out for me considering the coming off of La Nina conditions and not already having a warm basin. Not to say we have similar to those years for winter but it is interesting to note those were some of the snowiest years around the area after 2000, 13-14 was another good year although we were in neutral setting (slightly cool).

I wonder what the sst configuration would look like if we took out 15-16 in your last two. BTW im sure it was just a quick mistake but the last two are 14-15 not 15-16 if that is what you were going for.

[raindancewx]

Nov-Apr PDO finished at -1.65 on the JISAO/Mantua index.

That's third most negative back to 1931-32 for a Nov-Apr. These are your -1 to -2 PDO Nov-Apr years.

1971-72, 1948-49, 1961-62, 1949-50, 1990-91, 1970-71, 1975-76, 2008-09, 1950-51, 2011-12, 1973-74, 1956-57.

 

Of those, 1971, 1990, 1975, 2008, 1950, 1956 turned into El Ninos.

These are your "El Nino following major -PDO" years then. 1951-52, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1991-92, 2009-10.

Actually not a bad match for April, which is a good sign.

That blend is actually severely cold in most of the US in the Fall, but then it lets up December. Would be a pretty good winter in the Southern US, but not particularly cold anywhere in winter itself. There is some tendency for severe cold in the Fall in volcanic years - this might actually be a decent blend for now.

[csnavywx]

16 hours ago, jconsor said:

Hi, thanks for the constructive feedback/criticism.  I agree my Twitter thread was not well-worded.  A better explanation would have been that the extensive subsurface warmth slowly shifting from the dateline area into the central Pacific eroded the cool pool in the E. Pacific and led to surface warming during the fall and winter (see attached SST cross-sections from Oct and Dec '22 and Feb '23), which in turn likely favored a more +AAM state in the atmosphere.

FYI, there is some evidence from recent research that upwelling of cold pools below the surface can influence the strength and location of the Walker Circulation, which has a significant influence on the atmospheric pattern across Asia and N. America.  It is not hard to envision that upwelling anomalously warm subsurface water could have similar impacts.

See https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d5e/pdf
and https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL079494

Thanks for the response! That makes better sense.

To piggyback on this -- there was a collapse of -IOD conditions starting right around the same time:

 

 

Peak was in Oct: 

2021     0.051     0.243     0.266     0.250     0.009    -0.002    -0.228    -0.099    -0.058    -0.091     0.069    -0.120
2022    -0.056    -0.083    -0.093    -0.068    -0.122    -0.335    -0.195    -0.246    -0.322    -0.691    -0.269    -0.092
2023     0.109     0.157 

 

Final collapse of -IOD in the form of strong IO WWBs took place from Dec to Jan. Most of the mechanisms in this paper we're already familiar with, but it makes the case that a IOD + WWV (warm water volume) has significant predictive value and gives a mechanism of action: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00002/11304/7831.pdf -- In other words, you can, with actually decent skill scores, pick out the likely emergence of a Nino well before the predictability barrier, in some cases as soon as Sept of the previous year! In this case, it was more like late Oct or November.

The lack of any -IOD conditions (much less a sharp peak and cessation) from '17-'21 would've also strongly pointed away from the development of any significant Nino episode.

It seems to me we're seeing that mechanism in action and it would go a long way to helping explain some of why we didn't need a classic WPac WWB to kick off the event. Certainly didn't hurt that we had 3 years of Nina conditions in the lead-up.

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nov-Apr PDO finished at -1.65 on the JISAO/Mantua index.

That's third most negative back to 1931-32 for a Nov-Apr. These are your -1 to -2 PDO Nov-Apr years.

1971-72, 1948-49, 1961-62, 1949-50, 1990-91, 1970-71, 1975-76, 2008-09, 1950-51, 2011-12, 1973-74, 1956-57.

 

Of those, 1971, 1990, 1975, 2008, 1950, 1956 turned into El Ninos.

These are your "El Nino following major -PDO" years then. 1951-52, 1957-58, 1972-73, 1976-77, 1991-92, 2009-10.

Actually not a bad match for April, which is a good sign.

That blend is actually severely cold in most of the US in the Fall, but then it lets up December. Would be a pretty good winter in the Southern US, but not particularly cold anywhere in winter itself. There is some tendency for severe cold in the Fall in volcanic years - this might actually be a decent blend for now.

1. In the SE US, half of your 6 listed El Niño winters following strongly -PDO Nov-Aprils were very cold: 1957-8, 1976-7 (coldest winter on record), and 2009-10 (coldest winter since 1977-8). Of those, 1976-7 had way above average snow in the deep SE with my area getting snow an unheard of three times. 2009-10 had well above average snow in Atlanta and the SE overall. The other three weren't cold, but all had above average wintry precip at ATL thanks to one big winter storm each of those winters.

2. Using another PDO table that goes back into the late 1800s, the 1884-5 El Niño also followed a strongly -PDO in Nov-Apr:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 That 1884-5 winter was quite cold in the E US, with NYC very cold with above average snow. Boston was also quite cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only certainty with our winters since 09-10 has been no specific analogs from before this era have been useful for a seasonal forecast due to changes in the global climate. 

I don't agree with this...you just need to know how to use them and remain mindful of said changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

apparently a super east-based Nino is the most likely scenario? we haven't even passed the spring barrier lmao

I'm still leaning moderate to low-end strong until proven otherwise. there's also still enough model variability on placement that anything from east-based to a central leaning basin-wide event is possible. no real way to tell until we get into July-August

if I had to bet money on it, I'd say like a +1.3-1.7 basin-wide event

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The early evolution suggests east based or east based transitioning to basin wide. So that would probably favor another warmer than average winter. Could be looking at a record 9 warmer winers in a row since 15-16.  Don’t think we ever had a cold modoki  El Niño with well above normal snowfall begin this east based before. But moderate to stronger basin wide or east based El Niño’s have had variable snowfall. Generally  below normal to normal with a few snowier seasons in the mix. A higher end El Niño could have a big impact on global climate after the 15-16 super El Niño represented a big step up in global temperatures.

Yea, this is why I was saying a 1986-1987 type of outcome is the ceiling. Blocking is going to be crucial this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. In the SE US, half of your 6 listed El Niño winters following strongly -PDO Nov-Aprils were very cold: 1957-8, 1976-7 (coldest winter on record), and 2009-10 (coldest winter since 1977-8). Of those, 1976-7 had way above average snow in the deep SE with my area getting snow an unheard of three times. 2009-10 had well above average snow in Atlanta. The other three weren't cold, but all had above average wintry precip at ATL thanks to one big winter storm each of those winters.

2. Using another PDO table that goes back into the late 1800s, the 1884-5 El Niño also followed a strongly -PDO in Nov-Apr:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 That 1884-5 winter was quite cold in the E US, with NYC very cold with above average snow. Boston was also quite cold.

I feel like the cold was more due to the modoki  nature of some of those seasons than the fact that it followed a cold phase PDO, but it may help to mitigate some of the warmth with el nino if we begin with from the opposite base state.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree with this...you just need to know how to use them and remain mindful of said changes.

The changes have been what made each of the winters unique. Haven’t seen any seasons since 2010 match earlier analogs. We went from historic Atlantic blocking in 09-10 and 10-11 to record Pacific blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. We had the 11-12 non winter in between. Plus some could argue Nemo in 12-13 was one of their greatest snowstorms. The 15-16 super El Niño seems to have resent the winters warmer with a dominant SE Ridge or WAR. We actually got our strongest monthly SE Ridge in December 2015 during an El Niño when we went +13 for the month. That was probably related to the interaction with the strongest Mina-like MJO 4-6 during a super El Niño.
 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this is why I was saying a 1986-1987 type of outcome is the ceiling. Blocking is going to be crucial this season.

Well I know we talked about this in the winter thread this past season. Maybe we can finally get the western ridging we missed so much, that should at least help filter in the cold potential. Now watch the -NAO will just disappear this year...

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Well I know we talked about this in the winter thread this past season. Maybe we can finally get the western ridging we missed so much, that should at least help filter in the cold potential. Now watch the -NAO will just disappear this year...

Obviously the Pacific is more important at the end of the day, but anything short of a historic PDO and last winter would have been pretty good with those blocks. Get that again this winter and it will be different.

I feel like there will be this ground swell of claims that the NAO is useless when in fact it's really just that the Pacific is more important. Get those blocks in place with an el nino and pedestrian -PDO and see what happens. Of course, the trick is that if el nino is heavily east-based and appreciably potent, then we probably will not get the blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The changes have been what made each of the winters unique. Haven’t seen any seasons since 2010 match earlier analogs. We went from historic Atlantic blocking in 09-10 and 10-11 to record Pacific blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. We had the 11-12 non winter in between. Plus some could argue Nemo in 12-13 was one of their greatest snowstorms. The 15-16 super El Niño seems to have resent the winters warmer with a dominant SE Ridge or WAR. We actually got our strongest monthly SE Ridge in December 2015 during an El Niño when we went +13 for the month. That was probably related to the interaction with the strongest Mina-like MJO 4-6 during a super El Niño.
 

If you are looking for an analog to act as an exact replica of any given season, then you should probably reevaluate your conception of what an analog actually is regardless of the climate era.

Its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize discretion to in extracting the value from an analog. For instance, I like 1955-1956 last season....was it a carbon copy? No.....but there was value in that we had a hell of a block in March, as well as an extreme cold phase of the Pacific. Of course, it didn't work out in terms of snowfall, but that is often the case because snow is subject to so much variance.

My outlook was trash at the end of the day, but it doesn't mean there wasn't some value.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are looking for an analog to act as an exact replica of any given season, then you should probably reevaluate your conception of what an analog actually is regardless of the climate era.

Its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize discretion to in extracting the value from an analog. For instance, I like 1955-1956 last season....was it a carbon copy? No.....but there was value in that we had a hell of a block in March, as well as an extreme cold phase of the Pacific. Of course, it didn't work out in terms of snowfall, but that is often the case because snow is subject to so much variance.

My outlook was trash at the end of the day, but it doesn't mean there wasn't some value.

It also didn't help that most of the cold was on the other side of the globe, and what cold we had here loaded west due to the juggernaut PDO...... in the absence of any poleward Aleutian ridging due to modoki la nina, there was no mechanism to get it to bleed east.

Raindance had it down...aside from the NAO, which was ultimately rendered useless last year.

I have my post mortem write up just about done....probably post this weekend.

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are looking for an analog to act as an exact replica of any given season, then you should probably reevaluate your conception of what an analog actually is regardless of the climate era.

Its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize discretion to in extracting the value from an analog. For instance, I like 1955-1956 last season....was it a carbon copy? No.....but there was value in that we had a hell of a block in March, as well as an extreme cold phase of the Pacific. Of course, it didn't work out in terms of snowfall, but that is often the case because snow is subject to so much variance.

My outlook was trash at the end of the day, but it doesn't mean there wasn't some value.

How would you adjust past analogs toward today's climate? 

Some options come to top of mind: 

- brute force of adjusting temps up by a couple degrees across the board (oversimplistic, but can be complicated by the fact that doing so would eliminate 32-33 degree snowstorms we had in the past, esp in the MA)

- adjusting storm tracks northward. Example: 72-73 had that big storm and much above normal snowfall across the SE US, but virtually nothing from DC to NYC. What if a 72-73 happened today? Would that storm have traversed further north and resulted in a DC-NYC hit?

- match every winter from 2000 to today with the best pre-1980 analog, and compare the forcing (location and intensity), and note the changes as a result of a warmer state?

[snowman19]

The flip to +PDO seems to be starting and the extreme warmth in region 1+2 is migrating west into region 3….

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The flip to +PDO seems to be starting and the extreme warmth in region 1+2 is migrating west into region 3….

Now you're just getting desperate.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you are looking for an analog to act as an exact replica of any given season, then you should probably reevaluate your conception of what an analog actually is regardless of the climate era.

Its incumbent on the forecaster to utilize discretion to in extracting the value from an analog. For instance, I like 1955-1956 last season....was it a carbon copy? No.....but there was value in that we had a hell of a block in March, as well as an extreme cold phase of the Pacific. Of course, it didn't work out in terms of snowfall, but that is often the case because snow is subject to so much variance.

My outlook was trash at the end of the day, but it doesn't mean there wasn't some value.

When you use specific analogs from an earlier era you raise expectations among your readers. It’s probably better to just draw up the maps without references to pre 2010 analogs. The only winter forecast which has been reliable since 15-16 has been some version of the SE Ridge or WAR. This feature has been present whether we had El Niño, La Niña, neutral, or uncoupled El Niño.

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

When you use specific analogs from an earlier era you raise expectations among your readers. It’s probably better to just draw up the maps without references to past analogs. The only winter forecast which has been reliable since 15-16 has been some version of the SE Ridge or WAR.

 

 

 

 

Remarkably consistent since 2016. At some point, that pattern has gotta break. Like 40/70 said, something's gotta give.

[jconsor]

1997 and 2015 look like poor analogs to this year to me.  If anything, 2015 may be an anti-log in many ways in terms of the ENSO/Tropical Atlantic evolution. 

Doesn't mean the El Nino can't become strong (3-month average Nino 3.4 anomaly above 1.5C), but it will likely be a long and bumpy road toward achieving that (if at all, it would likely be in the last quarter of 2023).  In any case, the highly anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic would tend to favor a quick weakening and eventual demise of the El Nino in Q1-Q2 2024.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14887

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00305-y

 

[snowman19]

Now you're just getting desperate.

Yea….ooook….ummmmm…..sure……

[brooklynwx99]

AmericanTwitter

[snowman19]

AmericanTwitter

I guess you consider DT a know nothing peon….

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Remarkably consistent since 2016. At some point, that pattern has gotta break. Like 40/70 said, something's gotta give.

Tough to say when. There was a great recent paper on the topic. Gives new meaning to persistence forecast.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

When you use specific analogs from an earlier era you raise expectations among your readers. It’s probably better to just draw up the maps without references to pre 2010 analogs. The only winter forecast which has been reliable since 15-16 has been some version of the SE Ridge or WAR. This feature has been present whether we had El Niño, La Niña, neutral, or uncoupled El Niño.

 

 

 

That is what composites and explicit forecasts are for. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, jconsor said:

1997 and 2015 look like poor analogs to this year to me.  If anything, 2015 may be an anti-log in many ways in terms of the ENSO/Tropical Atlantic evolution. 

Doesn't mean the El Nino can't become strong (3-month average Nino 3.4 anomaly above 1.5C), but it will likely be a long and bumpy road toward achieving that (if at all, it would likely be in the last quarter of 2023).  In any case, the highly anomalous warmth in the tropical Atlantic would tend to favor a quick weakening and eventual demise of the El Nino in Q1-Q2 2024.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14887

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00305-y

 

I'm sure those were lined up next in snowman's queue.

[snowman19]

I'm sure those were lined up next in snowman's queue.

It’s funny. You do exactly what you accuse me of. I have yet to see you ever predict anything but a cold and snowy winter and I’ve been on these forums for years. I’m sure if there’s an east-based super El Niño in place this fall you will find some excuse to still go cold and snowy. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, you will say the forcing is really central based or some other nit picked excuse to go snowy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s funny. You do exactly what you accuse me of. I have yet to see you ever predict anything but a cold and snowy winter and I’ve been on these forums for years. I’m sure if there’s an east-based super El Niño in place this fall you will find some excuse to still go cold and snowy. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, you will say the forcing is really central based or some other nit picked excuse to go snowy.

I predicted slightly below normal snow and above normal temps just last year.

I also just said if its an east based el nino, then it will be warm...all I have implied is its too early to rule out basin wide.

All you ever do is vomit twitter quotes hyping up el nino and/or -PDO. Perhaps I am wrong, but you seem to be more interested in promulgating an agenda than offering actual insight.