El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree.....2015 is a decent EMI match, but as you implied, the SST dipole and pressure dipoli were much more pronounced in in 2015....WWBs were much more prevalent, as well...which is which is reflected by the MEI and RONI.

I believe this rapid spike in Nino 3.4 over the last week may be a first time it backed in from the west. So big Nino 3.4 rises in the past usually came from east. This may be why the Nino 3.4 SSTs are so much warmer than past instances with lower upper ocean heat content. A shallower depth higher OHC content near the Dateline is getting the job done almost as well as much more significant OHC anomalies further east did in the past. This is turning out to be a great learning event on how El Niño’s can form in new ways.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[NEPASnow]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the mean forcing remains in these areas through the winter, which is certainly possible, I would argue yes

Thank you, just trying to learn a little bit more each day

[griteater]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Steve D lol Just as bad as Margavage, Pann, Bastardi and Margusity. While it’s unlikely that 1+2 goes back up to +3C, when the KW surfaces in a couple of weeks, it very likely warms up again. And this Nino is anything but weak, besides the SSTs and subsurface, WWB, DWKW, the warm pool is now east of the dateline, something that only happens in the strongest events. This one is strong at the very least

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just east of the dateline is not where the strongest el Nino events focus.

BS.

Just popping in to say that there are separate things being discussed here with respect to SSTs

1 - The max SSTs in the W Pacific warm pool have moved east due to the current WWB and have extended a bit east of the dateline (I should say, the WWB has given the eastward extension a good push).  There are also max SSTs in the Maritime Continent (1st image below).  You can view this movement of the W Pac warm pool via an image loop of SSTs over the past year: https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anim.year.html

2 - The second thing being discussed are SST anomalies.  Via SST anomalies, Nino 3.4 looks fairly basin-wide at the moment (2nd image below).  You can view a loop of the SST anomalies over the past year here: https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html

 

[GaWx]

Latest TAO (for 11/16-20 averaged): vs prior map warming in 3.4, especially S of equator; warmest SST >31C 170W-180 just S of equator: strongest of WWB now moved E to 150-155W:

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

Just popping in to say that there are separate things being discussed here with respect to SSTs

1 - The max SSTs in the W Pacific warm pool have moved east due to the current WWB and have extended a bit east of the dateline (I should say, the WWB has given the eastward extension a good push).  There are also max SSTs in the Maritime Continent (1st image below).  You can view this movement of the W Pac warm pool via an image loop of SSTs over the past year: https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anim.year.html

2 - The second thing being discussed are SST anomalies.  Via SST anomalies, Nino 3.4 looks fairly basin-wide at the moment (2nd image below).  You can view a loop of the SST anomalies over the past year here: https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html

 

Yes, I get that...I went over both aspects ad nauseam in my work. However, its folly to ignore the the fact that the atmospheric response is different from past higher-end events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, NEPASnow said:

So would this current el nino SSTA, if they were to stay similar, cause this type of jet stream pattern for winter?

 

Yes because that Hadley Cell configuration would pop a big Aleutian low due north of that warmest water just east of the dateline, which would pop a ridge near the west coast (also ridging near the pole). This is why folks keep wating for el Nino to couple more and "battle" the -PDO and why I expect the PNA to average somewhat positive this season, regardless. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest TAO (for 11/16-20 averaged): vs prior map warming in 3.4, especially S of equator; warmest SST >31C 170W-180 just S of equator:

Great sign if centered east of the dateline. That should be the driver instead of the MC forcing we've seen in the past several years. 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes because that Hadley Cell configuration would pop a big Aleutian low due north of that warmest water just east of the dateline, which would pop a ridge near the west coast (also ridging near the pole). This is why folks keep wating for el Nino to couple more and "battle" the -PDO and why I expect the PNA to average somewhat positive this season, regardless. 

The risk is that the -PDO stubbornly tries to hang on and the ridge NW of Hawaii splits the Aleutian Low. One piece goes back to the Bering Sea and another into the SW US. This pops a downstream ridge near the Great Lakes or Northeast even with a technically positive PNA. While model forecasts beyond 10 days are uncertain, some of them are starting to show patterns matching past -PDO El Niños.

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The risk is that the -PDO stubbornly tries to hang on and the ridge NW of Hawaii splits the Aleutian Low. One piece goes back to the Bering Sea and another into the SW US. This pops a downstream ridge near the Great Lakes or Northeast even with a technically positive PNA. While model forecasts beyond 10 days are uncertain, some of them are starting to show patterns matching past -PDO El Niños.

 

 How would this H5 change once the MJO winds around to 8/1/2, which is being suggested for midmonth on?

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 How would this H5 change once the MJO winds around to 8/1/2, which is being suggested for midmonth on?

I don’t really trust those ultra long range MJO forecasts since it has been very rare to get strong early winter MJO 8 passages in the last decade. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t really trust those ultra long range MJO forecasts since it has been very rare to get strong early winter MJO 8 passages in the last decade. 

i mean, we've only been in two legitimate El Ninos in the last decade, so it would be rare given the low frequency. I don't think it's a coincidence that we've already gotten a 8-1-2 pass given that this event is strong

[griteater]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The risk is that the -PDO stubbornly tries to hang on and the ridge NW of Hawaii splits the Aleutian Low. One piece goes back to the Bering Sea and another into the SW US. This pops a downstream ridge near the Great Lakes or Northeast even with a technically positive PNA. While model forecasts beyond 10 days are uncertain, some of them are starting to show patterns matching past -PDO El Niños.

 

Oh yeah, that pattern is likely in the cards for 2nd-3rd week of Dec

Thereafter, Paul Roundy's 100-day lowpass / MJO tool is matching up nicely with the Euro Weeklies

Shown here are both in 3-day increments from Dec 5 to 29.  E Pac trough in 2nd and 3rd week of Dec, followed by retrograding Aleutian Low into a +PNA pattern in last week of Dec.  

We've discussed limited / mixed results with Roundy's tools, and I stand by that....but I will say, the concept with this one is really nice, and if one is going to work well, it should be this one as it combines the low frequency / low pass signal (base tropical forcing pattern) with the higher frequency signals running on top (MJO and Equatorial Rossby waves)....his description: "the only predictors included are obtained from OLR data, including 100-day low pass projected, MJO, and equatorial Rossby band signals"

And you can see on his loop where the OLR convection lights up along the dateline in weeks 2-3 of Dec before fading (as the signal moves east).

Late Dec / Early Jan should be our first big test of a legit El Nino since 15-16 in terms of what wins out....El Nino / -PDO / WPac warm pool....and there will be several more tests thru winter

 

[griteater]

Dec 30 - Jan 6 on Euro Weeklies

[brooklynwx99]

@GaWx look at this significant drop in SPV strength on the ECMWF extended compared to yesterday

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, griteater said:

Dec 30 - Jan 6 on Euro Weeklies

makes sense given the MJO pass through 7-8-1-2 by the time we get to mid-late month

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t really trust those ultra long range MJO forecasts since it has been very rare to get strong early winter MJO 8 passages in the last decade. 

So you trust a 282 hr forecast off the Geps but not its MJO forecast? Honestly, it looks like you're trying to find any excuse for a lousy winter.

[griteater]

On the Roundy tool, one thing I'm seeing that gives it more credence is that the lowpass OLR / -VP signal is showing up there along the dateline....and that makes sense IMO as it matches with what we've seen all summer/fall as opposed to it being farther east like the big east based ninos (it also matches essentially all seasonal forecast model projections for winter)

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, griteater said:

Late Dec / Early Jan should be our first big test of a legit El Nino since 15-16 in terms of what wins out....El Nino / -PDO / WPac warm pool....and there will be several more tests thru winter

Which El ninos of the past were -PDO dominated?

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Which El ninos of the past were -PDO dominated?

None quite like this one.  ASO here is Aug-Sep-Oct

[Itryatgolf70]

35 minutes ago, griteater said:

None quite like this one.  ASO here is Aug-Sep-Oct

Tropical tidbits sst anomalies chart imo gives the best most accurate depiction of ssts based on the region because it's updated every six hours. 

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, griteater said:

None quite like this one.  ASO here is Aug-Sep-Oct

Sheesh...you weren't kidding, lol And none of the strong ones came close! Wonder what the potential implications would be?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@GaWx look at this significant drop in SPV strength on the ECMWF extended compared to yesterday

I wish there were an exclamatory reaction emoji! I mean this is by a large margin the biggest weakening on the Euro Weeklies from one day to the next since I started following this on a daily basis. Just two days ago (11/19 run) the ens mean was delayed til 12/25 to go below climo, which was vs ~12/1 on the 11/1 run. I mean major can kicking! Yesterday it moved from 12/25 back to 12/19 a pretty significant weakening on its own. But today takes the cake with it moving from 12/19 to 12/5! The ens mean gets to as low as 21 m/s vs high 20s to 30 the last few runs. The implied chance for an actual major SSW just shot up from under 5% two runs ago to the 15-20% region today.

[griteater]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sheesh...you weren't kidding, lol Wonder what the potential implications would be?

Potentially more periods of central Pac ridge / trough off or along the west coast than typical mod-str El Niños

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wish there were an exclamatory reaction emoji! I mean this is by a large margin the biggest weakening on the Euro Weeklies from one day to the next since I started following this on a daily basis. Just two days ago (11/19 run) the ens mean was delayed til 12/25 to go below climo, which was vs ~12/1 on the 11/1 run. I mean major can kicking! Yesterday it moved from 12/25 back to 12/19 a pretty significant weakening on its own. But today takes the cake with it moving from 12/19 to 12/5! The ens mean gets to as low as 21 m/s vs high 20s to 30 the last few runs. The implied chance for an actual major SSW just shot up from under 5% two runs ago to the 15-20% region today.

Gut says that volcano may have something to do with it and the models are finally seeing it...whatever "it" is.

[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I wish there were an exclamatory reaction emoji! I mean this is by a large margin the biggest weakening on the Euro Weeklies from one day to the next since I started following this on a daily basis. Just two days ago (11/19 run) the ens mean was delayed til 12/25 to go below climo, which was vs ~12/1 on the 11/1 run. I mean major can kicking! Yesterday it moved from 12/25 back to 12/19 a pretty significant weakening on its own. But today takes the cake with it moving from 12/19 to 12/5! The ens mean gets to as low as 21 m/s vs high 20s to 30 the last few runs. The implied chance for an actual major SSW just shot up from under 5% two runs ago to the 15-20% region today.

Saw Cohens update on Twitter today and he was ecstatic about the projected warming.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

Potentially more periods of central Pac ridge / trough off or along the west coast than typical mod-str El Niños

I'm trying not to ask too many questions, but I'm trying to conceptualize how all this fits together, lol So you have a strong niño, a -PDO (with a coolness you usually see in ninas, right?). How does the WPAC warm pool fit into all this?

Overall...sounds like competing forces...

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Dec 30 - Jan 6 on Euro Weeklies

 

That's a cold pattern & a good southern slider & Apps runner, & Mid-Atlantic special pattern. 

[griteater]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm trying not to ask too many questions, but I'm trying to conceptualize how all this fits together, lol So you have a strong niño, a -PDO (with a coolness you usually see in ninas, right?). How does the WPAC warm pool fit into all this?

Overall...sounds like competing forces...

Yes, varying opinions on this in terms of what it means for this winter.  The pool of very warm SSTs in the Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent (MC) - West Pacific region has grown in size / strength in recent decades.  During robust El Ninos, the convection in the MC tends to be suppressed / lower than normal compared to all years (and enhanced during La Ninas).  However, there is evidence that this region is fighting back so to speak so that it's a bit more common for that convection to not be suppressed as much during Ninos.  Convection firing in the MC is essentially MJO phases 4-5-6 (i.e. -PNA or some form of trough along the west coast)

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Dec 30 - Jan 6 on Euro Weeklies

When combined with the Dec 25-Jan 1 map that I’ve seen, that means the near two week long period of 12/25-1/6 centers the coldest anomalies over land in the entire NHem in the E US. Keeping in mind that there’s often strong cold air during winter in some mid latitude area at any time, this implies the real possibility of a couple of weeks of that kind of thing in the E US then.

[Eskimo Joe]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

When combined with the Dec 25-Jan 1 map that I’ve seen, that means the near two week long period of 12/25-1/6 centers the coldest anomalies over land in the entire NHem in the E US. Keeping in mind that there’s often strong cold air during winter in some mid latitude area at any time, this implies the real possibility of a couple of weeks of that kind of thing in the E US then.

Absolutely no Atlantic blocking though. Was hoping to see the PV a bit more WSW than where it is progged on the weeklies.