El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases

It is possible but if we do see warming continue around the maritime region we would see a lot more of an active MJO than a null inducing one that sits in 8-1-2. So weird that everyone is down each others throats over temperatures. 

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

And if we're going to get MC forcing or 4-6 MJO, I'd rather get that now into mid-Dec, so then it circles over into 7-8-1-2 and sets us up nicely. Plus that second wind by this nino should also overpower the -PDO

I sure hope so phase 6-7-8 in a December does not look all that great especially with the little delay on phases with MJO. I am hopeful the outcomes are different but I personally wouldn't expect much as we head through December.

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

A stronger Southeast ridge doesn’t mean imminent doom. Outside this board, milder winters with lower heating bills are welcomed. We are in the minority enjoying KU events and really cold winters. But it’s not a good thing long term if you are in the snow plow or ski business.

I think the only time people are ok with wintry weather is during the holidays otherwise 90% of people would welcome another warm, snow-free winter. 

However there are negative side-effects of a warm winter primarily bugs & diseases and yes impacts to snow favored industries. 

Personally the older I get the more I'm ok with what we got last winter. No travel headaches, low heating bills, no icy conditions, don't have to shovel or deal with plows, etc. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

We're running double our long-term average precipitation total now locally for November. More likely by the end of the month. 

Solar activity is still falling off looks like - been a long time since we've had days with under 50 sunspots. Normally, I wouldn't post about the sun for a while. Some angry incel from here yells at me on twitter every time I mention it might snow in Albuquerque, or every time I mention the solar cycle in any way.

Since I value his opinion so much, I've decided to mention those things much more often. He doesn't seem to realize 95% of the country is running warm this month, and that the East has had 8 warm winters in a row, with 5 nearly snowless. Any time I mention these things as possibly tied to the -PDO, I get attacked like I fucked his mother in the ass. It really is quite comical.

For you Mr. Incel -

Snow -

 

Surely you can keep your composure and not bring that crap and language in here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s not necessary to definitively know whether a persistent pattern is permanent or not in order to use it as an effective forecast tool in the present. 

Glorified version of persistence forecasting.  It will work until it doesn't. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I sure hope so phase 6-7-8 in a December does not look all that great especially with the little delay on phases with MJO. I am hopeful the outcomes are different but I personally wouldn't expect much as we head through December.

 As per what’s in the top image, Phase 8 has on average been the coldest in NDJ in the E US with phases 1 and 7 next coldest. As far as I know (I realize this has been debated), no lag time has to be added as this is what is experienced on average during each phase from what I understand. And to add based on my own analyses, I found that weaker amplitudes of each phase at least during El Niño averaged colder than stronger versions.
 

 With phase 6 averaging the warmest, a 6-7-8 isn’t usually all that cold in Dec because of the warm 6 unless the time spent in 6 is short enough. I’d prefer a 7-8-1. That’s why I’d rather not see it too warm in Nino 4 and want to see warmth move well east into central 3.4. Also, when Jan/Feb comes, phase 7 becomes mild and phase 2 cools off and even phase 3 cools off by Feb (see 2nd image).

NDJ

 

DJF:

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As per what’s in the top image, Phase 8 has on average been the coldest in NDJ in the E US with phases 1 and 7 next coldest. As far as I know (I realize this has been debated), no lag time has to be added as this is what is experienced on average during each phase from what I understand. And to add based on my own analyses, I found that weaker amplitudes of each phase at least during El Niño averaged colder than stronger versions.
 

 With phase 6 averaging the warmest, a 6-7-8 isn’t usually all that cold in Dec because of the warm 6 unless the time spent in 6 is short enough. I’d prefer a 7-8-1. That’s why I’d rather not see it too warm in Nino 4 and want to see warmth move well east into central 3.4. Also, when Jan/Feb comes, phase 7 becomes mild and phase 2 cools off and even phase 3 cools off by Feb (see 2nd image).

NDJ

 

DJF:

Pretty sure those take every single NDJ/ DJF timeframe and don't separate the ideas of ENSO influence. Typically December is cold in La Nina and warm in El Nino. These are warm ENSO composites with an MJO amplitude larger than 1, you get a good look at the trough/ridge pattern associated with them. If we were to include all amplitudes 6 is much warmer, 7 is not as widespread but still warm in the Mid Atlantic and East and 8 is a bit cooler in the Midwest/GL.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Looks like we are right on par with 1965-1966 for El Niño strength. 

That winter was during my freshman year in college in upstate NY.  Snow and cold dominated.  

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glorified version of persistence forecasting.  It will work until it doesn't. 

If any pattern becomes persistent enough, then it becomes the new climo. Then it’s forecasters job to try and figure out at what point the forecast will deviate from the new established pattern. So far none of the forecasts for a colder winter in the Northeast have worked out for the last 8 years. Not even sure what the forecaster would need to see in the early season data to go colder. But we will eventually see a colder winter here. It’s just getting the timing correct which will be a challenge. 

[mitchnick]

Despite the recent warming, the Cfs fails to get the monthly or trimonthly to +2C. It's actually done pretty well since August, which was when it last had a forecast of +2C or more by now while Euro and other dynamic models were. Nothing says it can't fail now, but I would think it'll need to change direction real soon if it's going back to +2C or more.

[etudiant]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Despite the recent warming, the Cfs fails to get the monthly or trimonthly to +2C. It's actually done pretty well since August, which was when it last had a forecast of +2C or more by now while Euro and other dynamic models were. Nothing says it can't fail now, but I would think it'll need to change direction real soon if it's going back to +2C or more.

Surprising unanimity in the models that we are at an inflection point. Are they really that good?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

If any pattern becomes persistent enough, then it becomes the new climo. Then it’s forecasters job to try and figure out at what point the forecast will deviate from the new established pattern. So far none of the forecasts for a colder winter in the Northeast have worked out for the last 8 years. Not even sure what the forecaster would need to see in the early season data to go colder. But we will eventually see a colder winter here. It’s just getting the timing correct which will be a challenge. 

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But it is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

That winter was during my freshman year in college in upstate NY.  Snow and cold dominated.  

Its a very good analog.

[stadiumwave]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be clear, I am not arguing against a warmer than average winter....that isn't what I was referring to with the persistence. Again, I do not debate that the climate is warming. What is dubious to me is all of the inferences with respect to the global patterns and the idea that they are going to become fixed in place. But is feasible that they will...my contention is that in the past they have not, so we need more time in order to definitively conclude that they will.

 

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to a the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

Yes, this is what I am skeptical of....eventually it may happen, but I am just not ready to conclude that we are there like Bluewave seems to be. Maybe, but need more time and data. I wasn't arguing that going above average in the DM mean isn't a fairly safe bet.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

Now you are muddying up this discussion with over the top comments. Discussing persistent weather patterns isn’t hysteria. It’s called pattern recognition. We have been talking about  more persistent patterns with various studies  mentioned. You are playing  rhetorical games with the fixation on permanence. None of the good papers ever say that a more persistent pattern is a permanent pattern. I have mentioned time and time again that the models aren’t certain whether something becomes permanent or not. Just that it becomes more frequent and it’s unknown whether it transitions to a new pattern in some new climate state. 

The West Coast ridge that you mentioned was initially occurring during the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. I am aware of no good papers at that time which said it would become a permanent winter state. But that record ridge has been reoccurring more frequently during the warm seasons leading to extreme drought and Western heatwaves as was the case a few summers ago with historic PAC NW heatwave and drought ridge. So that ridge has become a persistent feature. Several studies focused in on record SST warmth around 15N in the WPAC as a generator of this 500 mb pattern.

There were also no good papers stating a permanent drought in Texas. What has been stated is that the water cycle becomes more extreme as climate warms. So we alternate between more extreme droughts and flash floods which has been the persistent pattern since at least 2010. 

The Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge has become more frequent over time. Many studies focus on the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool and shift to more persistent La Niña and MJO 4-6 states. Plus it’s also possible this is related to a slowing AMOC. There are no papers I am aware of that mention permanence. Just that it has become a more frequent pattern and it’s unknown how this pattern will change in the future. 

 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

Regarding the SER: a very knowledgeable and smart met whom I communicate with at times and who I feel is objective without strong political influences and who is neither a winter weenie nor an anti-weenie has been following the avg SSTa for an area of the tropical Pacific N of Australia (120-160E, 15N to 15S) (within the MC) for years that he feels is partially correlated to increased frequency/amp during winter of MC MJO phases, increased forcing from the MC even when the MJO isn’t in the MC, and an increased avg SER strength/La Ninalike pattern. During the prior few years, it had been near record warmth. However, during Aug-Oct of 2023, it was quite a bit cooler than that for recent years. I’ve posted about this in here. We’ll see how it ends up in Nov as it may have warmed a good bit. Regardless, my hope is that the strong El Niño keeps the SER weak this winter no matter how warm this area ends up this winter.

[Terpeast]

I may have called the nino peak too early, definitely coming in higher now than October. 

At least this will shift the forcing east of the dateline, with cooling over the MC. (Yes we’re seeing the MC burp a little bit, but I don’t see that lasting)

PDO remains a bit stubborn, but I stand by my assessment that nino will win overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Now you are muddying up this discussion with over the top comments. Discussing persistent weather patterns isn’t hysteria. It’s called pattern recognition. We have been talking about  more persistent patterns with various studies  mentioned. You are playing  rhetorical games with the fixation on permanence. None of the good papers ever say that a more persistent pattern is a permanent pattern. I have mentioned time and time again that the models aren’t certain whether something becomes permanent or not. Just that it becomes more frequent and it’s unknown whether it transitions to a new pattern in some new climate state. 

The West Coast ridge that you mentioned was initially occurring during the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. I am aware of no good papers at that time which said it would become a permanent winter state. But that record ridge has been reoccurring more frequently during the warm seasons leading to extreme drought and Western heatwaves as was the case a few summers ago with historic PAC NW heatwave and drought ridge. So that ridge has become a persistent feature. Several studies focused in on record SST warmth around 15N in the WPAC as a generator of this 500 mb pattern.

There were also no good papers stating a permanent drought in Texas. What has been stated is that the water cycle becomes more extreme as climate warms. So we alternate between more extreme droughts and flash floods which has been the persistent pattern since at least 2010. 

The Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge has become more frequent over time. Many studies focus on the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool and shift to more persistent La Niña and MJO 4-6 states. Plus it’s also possible this is related to a slowing AMOC. There are no papers I am aware of that mention permanence. Just that it has become a more frequent pattern and it’s unknown how this pattern will change in the future. 

 

I have noticed that Larry has referenced regarding the NAO....deeply negative seasons seem to occur less frequently.

[CoastalWx]

Interesting developments IMO. The current WWB should migrate and weaken with time. After that, I don't see anything notable for the next few weeks so my guess is this peak will be coming soon and if guidance is right, probably peak within the next few weeks? 

Also note the IO dipole weakens considerably as forecasted. 

 

 

 

 

As far as the MJO goes, that has been the main driver of the pattern. If we assume the euro is correct, it looks like we get another wave into the area near and just west of the dateline later on during the first week of December. That probably would mean towards mid December the east may cool off again. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Interesting developments IMO. The current WWB should migrate and weaken with time. After that, I don't see anything notable for the next few weeks so my guess is this peak will be coming soon and if guidance is right, probably peak within the next few weeks? 

Also note the IO dipole weakens considerably as forecasted. 

 

 

 

 

As far as the MJO goes, that has been the main driver of the pattern. If we assume the euro is correct, it looks like we get another wave into the area near and just west of the dateline later on during the first week of December. That probably would mean towards mid December the east may cool off again. 

 

 

Yea, OND should be the peak....just below super ONI.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have noticed that Larry has referenced regarding the NAO....deeply negative seasons seem to occur less frequently.

There have been only 6 sub -0.25 NAO winters during the last 44 (only 14%)…so this goes back to well before the internet and first online wx BB/before many here were born! So, the frequency of even just moderate -NAO winters has been way down during winter for decades. This is in deep contrast to:

-a much higher frequency of -NAO winters than 14% during the late 1950s through 1970s

-a big increase in -NAO summers during the last 30 or so years

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There have been only 6 sub -0.25 NAO winters during the last 44 (only 14%)…so this goes back to well before the internet and first online wx BB/before many here were born! So, the frequency of even just moderate -NAO winters has been way down during winter for decades. This is in deep contrast to:

-a much higher frequency of -NAO winters than 14% during the late 1950s through 1970s

-a big increase in -NAO summers during the last 30 or so years

I do buy this potentially having something to so with CC.....also plays into why the more "feast of famine" dynamic in terms of snowfall.....tougher to get great NAO blocks, but when we get them, some of these storms are just savage.

[griteater]

From NOAA CPC's Weekly MJO Update...

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I'll argue that weather & climo thoughts have been hijacked by hysteria. Here is just a short list over te last 20 years of the new "permanent":

-perma-drought in Texas > Whoops

-perma-west coast ridge > whoops

-perma SE ridge > will be a whoops

Too much jumping to foolish conclusions due to all the hysteria. Hysteria is never good for any field of science. It leads to shallow, quick judgments & a complete inability to be objective. 

So, relative to a stuck perma-SE ridge talk, that's just stupid hysteria talk that belongs over in the "planet saver" forum...in my opinion; although the poster saying it is a good poster. 

Living in Texas the last 40 years, Houston area the last 23, the idea of a Texas perma-drought being a whoops is not correct.  It has definitely been dryer since 2011, even with events like the 2017 floods.

[griteater]

November Month to Date temperatures - 2023 vs 1997 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

November Month to Date temperatures - 2023 vs 1997 

heh

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

heh

So you're predicting another 76/77. Got it.

[Great Snow 1717]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

That winter was during my freshman year in college in upstate NY.  Snow and cold dominated.  

..and nearly 60 years ago....a lot has changed since then...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..and nearly 60 years ago....a lot has changed since then...

I think everyone understands that an identical pattern wouldn't be as cold....however, an identical pattern also would probably produce larger storms with more moisture.