El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one can definitively conclude that any of these regime changes are, or are not permanent at this time because we simply do not have enough data...period. We can come up with scientifically valid ideologies that make sense, theoretically speaking, but we won't know for years whether they are right of wrong. But the smart money is on them not being permanent, just as all of the theories on "permanent" changes before them. All we know for certain is that the planet is warming. The onus is on folks to prove that these changes are in fact permanent and that will take many more years. The onus is not on others to prove that the changes are not permanent.

It’s not necessary to definitively know whether a persistent pattern is permanent or not in order to use it as an effective forecast tool in the present. 

[griteater]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Probably won’t make much difference on the sensible weather pattern whether the ONI peaks at strong or super. It may be more important whether the -PDO or Niña-like pattern continues to play the back and forth with the El Niño. A super El Niño can displace the Aleutian low too close to the Western US. But a -PDO El Niño can do the same thing due to the stronger Aleutian ridge NW of Hawaii. So while some may not technically call it an Aleutian low, any troughing in the Western US could produce the same warm outcome for the Northeast. 

True, but we should be able to distinguish the difference between the 2 (big east-based Aleutian Low vs. -PDO influenced trough close to the west coast).  My opinion is that the big, east-based Aleutian Low pattern won't be very prevalent this winter, but we'll see

[bluewave]

Just now, griteater said:

True, but we should be able to distinguish the difference between the 2 (big east-based Aleutian Low vs. -PDO influenced trough close to the west coast).  My opinion is that the big, east-based Aleutian Low pattern won't be very prevalent this winter, but we'll see

Technically you may be right. But at least for the Northeast, any trough in the West can significantly limit how much cold air is available. It will be interesting to see how this winter plays out with all the competing influences. 

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know Webb didn’t, but did you bother to click on Roundy’s link and see that the pattern he’s showing looks very NON-torchy for the east CONUS??

Indeed, here’s the map that Roundy showed. Assuming I’m interpreting this correctly, it appears to have the strong Canadian block (in red) that he mentioned, which is in W and C Canada and includes the NW US. That is a strong +PNA block along with an Aleutian low to its west (in blue). The accompanying +PNA trough dips down into the E and EC US (blue). This looks like a strong +PNA block for 12/28/23. This would normally be quite a cold pattern for the E US and probably with the strongest cold anomalies in the SE US. This also seems to show a modest -NAO with some red over Iceland/E Greenland and blue to the south. (This cold pattern in late Dec would be consistent with the cold E US pattern being suggested by recent MJO model forecasts for mid Dec due to weak phase 8.)

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Technically you may be right. But at least for the Northeast, any trough in the West can significantly limit how much cold air is available. It will be interesting to see how this winter plays out with all the competing influences. 

Oh yeah, agree, they produce similar results, but just thinking of assigning the culprit for each

[stadiumwave]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Indeed, here’s the map that he showed. Assuming I’m interpreting this correctly, it appears to have the strong Canadian block (in red) that he mentioned, which is in W and C Canada. That is a strong +PNA block along with an Aleutian low to its west (in blue). The accompanying +PNA trough dips down into the E and EC US (blue). This looks like a strong +PNA block for 12/28/23. This would normally be quite a cold pattern for the E US and probably with the strongest cold anomalies in the SE US. This also seems to show a modest -NAO with some red over Iceland/E Greenland and blue to the south. (This cold pattern in late Dec would be consistent with the cold E US pattern being suggested by recebt MJO model forecasts are suggesting for mid Dec with weak phase 8.)

 

Here is Dec in 5 day increments. The only torchy looking part is DEC 16-23.

 

If it indeed played out in a similar way, that's not a bad strong El Nino Dec at all. 

[stadiumwave]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those composite analogs on that site are very hit or miss for forecasts beyond 15 days. 

 

But you proceeded to post Webb's response to Roundy in agreement with that look & the 1880's El Nino winter pattern progression. So, are you actually disagreeing with Eric?

Listen, Eric likes to piss people off NE people & Mets, so keep that in mind. While he does expect cold at some point in the east, he's trolling winter lovers in the east & will no say "much" about it. But he has indeed showed his cards a little for JAN/FEB.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Here is Dec in 5 day increments. The only torchy looking part is DEC 16-23.

 

If it indeed played out in a similar way, that's not a bad strong El Nino Dec at all. 

I want to make sure I’m looking at this right. Are those 500 mb height anomalies? If not, what are the reds and the blues? 
Edit: I got the answer. They’re 300 mb ht anomalies.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think I posted before that Nov has historically low correlation between ENSO and the N. Pacific pattern, that it starts picking up +correlation in the month of December

With the subsurface on fire, it's no surprise to see this strong N. Pacific low signal on the LR GEFS

https://ibb.co/xj57pjJ

as December starts correlating better in the N. Pacific

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But you proceeded to post Webb's response to Roundy in agreement with that look & the 1880's El Nino winter pattern progression. So, are you actually disagreeing with Eric?

Listen, Eric likes to piss people off NE people & Mets, so keep that in mind. While he does expect cold at some point in the east, he's trolling winter lovers in the east & will no say "much" about it. But he has indeed showed his cards a little for JAN/FEB.

It was snowman that posted the tweets from Eric and Paul. My comment was that those constructed analog forecasts beyond 15 days are hit or miss. Not sure if Paul keeps verification statistics on them. There have been numerous times he posted them to twitter and we got completely different patterns. But that is par for the course with forecasts beyond 15 days. We know they are a crapshoot but the public may not realize the difference. 

[GaWx]

Here we go: coldest 500 mb and 2m Euro Weeklies maps for 12/25-1/1 so far with a W Canadian block and E US trough (+PNA)/Aleutian trough:

H5:

2m:

[Terpeast]

PDO appears to be bottoming out again locally. New aleutian low taking place in the short term with strong ridging over the west. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the PDO come back up, and the recent nino3.4 rise will also support the PDO rise. 

(I may have been wrong about the nino peaking in November, but it’s too soon to tell whether this is a OND peak or a NDJ peak)

[stadiumwave]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was snowman that posted the tweets from Eric and Paul. My comment was that those constructed analog forecasts beyond 15 days are hit or miss. Not sure if Paul keeps verification statistics on them. There have been numerous times he posted them to twitter and we got completely different patterns. But that is par for the course with forecasts beyond 15 days. We know they are a crapshoot but the public may not realize the difference. 

 

Correct. Paul usually has a decent handle on when he thinks they're plausible or not. When he posts its because he really think they're dialed in. 

FWIW, today's Euro Weeklies eerily similar to Paul's MJO constructed analogs.

[qg_omega]

Classic strong Nino as we head into December

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1726680020041814171?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Classic strong Nino as we head into December

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1726680020041814171?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

Why would Webb post a Euro monthly forecast when you have the weeklies that now cover the period? Don't answer, because it's rhetorical since I  know the real answer.

[GaWx]

 For the perspective vs the rest of the globe, you can see how cold at 2m is the E and C US as a whole, especially the SE US, on today’s Euro Weekly for 12/25-1/1: pretty much as cold as the coldest anomaly for any large land area as the vast majority outside of the lower 48, Alaska, and Greenland are in pink and only a few small land areas are in blue. So, this map suggests the E US could very well be headed toward another cold holiday period thanks to an El Niño/left side MJO favored +PNA.

[griteater]

NOAA CPC Weekly Nino 3.4 values for November (OISST data):

Nov1: +1.8

Nov8: +1.8

Nov15: +1.9

If we estimate the weekly values for Nov22 and Nov29 to both come in at +2.1 (i.e. SSTs continue to rise this week before leveling off next week as the westerly wind anomalies subside), that would yield a November monthly of around +1.94. 

NOAA uses ERSST for the monthly number and the OISST monthly has been 0.07 lower than the ERSST monthly over the past 2 months.  So, let's go with +2.01 for November as an estimate. 

Here is how that November number compares with other El Ninos...

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Correct. Paul usually has a decent handle on when he thinks they're plausible or not. When he posts its because he really think they're dialed in. 

FWIW, today's Euro Weeklies eerily similar to Paul's MJO constructed analogs.

The one constant with models like the EPS weeklies is that they always seem to struggle even more than at other times of the year with long range December forecasts issued before Thanksgiving. It may have something to do with the change up with the seasonal patterns as we we shift gears from November into December. We have seen some very significant model shifts between November 20th and 30th for even just the first week of December. So I don’t start putting to much stock in them until we get closer to the start of December. Some years the Euro monthly for December nailed the December pattern when issued on the 5th. I can’t remember the last time the model  had a successful December forecast issued around November 20th. That being said, we have seen some pretty low skill  EPS December forecasts issued on or around December 5th. 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one constant with models like the EPS weeklies is that they always seem to struggle even more than at other times of the year with long range December forecasts issued before Thanksgiving. It may have something to do with the change up with the seasonal patterns as we we shift gears from November into December. We have seen some very significant model shifts between November 20th and 30th for even just the first week of December. So I don’t start putting to much stock in them until we get closer to the start of December. Some years the Euro monthly for December nailed the December pattern when issued on the 5th. I can’t remember the last time the model  had a successful December forecast issued around November 20th. That being said, we have seen some pretty low skill  EPS December forecasts issued on or around December 5th. 

 From the hints that I’ve been seeing, I don’t think the E US is going to be affected by a consistent single pattern in December, which I realize isn’t unusual. I’m leaning toward a first half with temps averaging AN and a 2nd half with much of the area averaging BN, especially MidAtlantic south. If this were to verify, we’d be looking at a largely NN Dec as a whole in much of the E US, especially MidAtlantic south, as opposed to a mild Dec.

[griteater]

Added columns for Monthly Peak and Tri-Monthly Peak

[griteater]

Agree with GaWx that the -VP uplift moving from the Central Pacific to the Americas and Africa in the 2nd half of Dec would support the Euro Weeklies forecast, as late December is really the earliest timeframe when an MJO 7-8-1-2 pass becomes favorable for winter in the East.  

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The one constant with models like the EPS weeklies is that they always seem to struggle even more than at other times of the year with long range December forecasts issued before Thanksgiving. It may have something to do with the change up with the seasonal patterns as we we shift gears from November into December. We have seen some very significant model shifts between November 20th and 30th for even just the first week of December. So I don’t start putting to much stock in them until we get closer to the start of December. Some years the Euro monthly for December nailed the December pattern when issued on the 5th. I can’t remember the last time the model  had a successful December forecast issued around November 20th. That being said, we have seen some pretty low skill  EPS December forecasts issued on or around December 5th. 

 

They all struggle. My point was that they ironically match up with Paul's MJO analogs. 

[NEPASnow]

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

NOAA CPC Weekly Nino 3.4 values for November (OISST data):

Nov1: +1.8

Nov8: +1.8

Nov15: +1.9

If we estimate the weekly values for Nov22 and Nov29 to both come in at +2.1 (i.e. SSTs continue to rise this week before leveling off next week as the westerly wind anomalies subside), that would yield a November monthly of around +1.94. 

NOAA uses ERSST for the monthly number and the OISST monthly has been 0.07 lower than the ERSST monthly over the past 2 months.  So, let's go with +2.01 for November as an estimate. 

Here is how that November number compares with other El Ninos...

Yep and should give us a SON tri-monthly around 1.8 barely (1.75). Im curious to see how this holds going forward. This is finally taking on a more classic nino ending in the subsurface. Still a little wonky in comparison to other years around this time. Can not unfortunately go back before 1989, they look to be adding in to about 1977 in the near future.

[George001]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Added columns for Monthly Peak and Tri-Monthly Peak

Looks like we are right on par with 1965-1966 for El Niño strength. 

[George001]

We are already starting to see the strong STJ showing up on the models, and the SOI reflects a high end strong El Niño. I don’t think it will officially be a super peak, but regardless this El Niño is very powerful and it’s strength should not be overlooked. Say what you want about Paul Roundy, but he has been more right than wrong about the evolution of this event. Most forecasts were calling for a weak-moderate event, and Paul Roundy was saying this would be a big one as early as March. I would go as far as saying the raw strength of this El Niño just about eliminates any coupling concerns come wintertime. 

[so_whats_happening]

Again not a big fan of the long range on these as they change quite a bit but not a terrible call so far for the GFS. Two maps a week apart but im not liking the -VP picking up again over the maritime region.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

We're running double our long-term average precipitation total now locally for November. More likely by the end of the month. 

Solar activity is still falling off looks like - been a long time since we've had days with under 50 sunspots. Normally, I wouldn't post about the sun for a while. Some angry incel from here yells at me on twitter every time I mention it might snow in Albuquerque, or every time I mention the solar cycle in any way.

Since I value his opinion so much, I've decided to mention those things much more often. He doesn't seem to realize 95% of the country is running warm this month, and that the East has had 8 warm winters in a row, with 5 nearly snowless. Any time I mention these things as possibly tied to the -PDO, I get attacked like I fucked his mother in the ass. It really is quite comical.

For you Mr. Incel -

Snow -

 

I thought you know better than not to feed the trolls...and Twitter is full of em

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Again not a big fan of the long range on these as they change quite a bit but not a terrible call so far for the GFS. Two maps a week apart but im not liking the -VP picking up again over the maritime region.

i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, we’re probably going to see weak intrusions into 4 and 5 but as the Nino strengthens and couples further, 7-8-1-2 will be the main phases

And if we're going to get MC forcing or 4-6 MJO, I'd rather get that now into mid-Dec, so then it circles over into 7-8-1-2 and sets us up nicely. Plus that second wind by this nino should also overpower the -PDO