El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been the case frequently since the super El Niño. Missing a colder storm track in late November isn’t  that big a deal since even a colder track is facing more marginal snowfall climo especially near the coast.

But during the winter it’s a completely different matter. Missing the colder storm track last December with that last minute Southeast ridge pop up was a complete waste of the 2nd lowest December monthly -AO on record.

Then we had the Christmas major flash flooding with that warmer track right after the 40” event in BGM in December 20.

People said that it was understandable that December 2015 would be warm anyway since it was a super El Niño. But no other super El Niño produced a +13 winter month and an historic Southeast ridge like that. Plus we had the historic MJO 4-6 for a super El Niño.

Then we heard how the February 2018 historic warmth and Southeast ridge was just the La Niña climo for February. But the 500 mb height anomaly in the Northeast was higher than any previous date for the entire winter season. And it was our first 80° reading in February. 

In 18-19 we heard how the El Niño was just too weak to couple and it was no big deal. But many weaker El Niño’s had no trouble coupling. That Aleutian ridge-Southeast ridge in 18-19 was not normal for even a weak El Niño. 

The  strong Southeast ridge last winter got blamed on the -PDO. But most -PDOs from the earlier era had much weaker Southeast ridge patterns especially when the AO was negative. 

Forget March 2018?

We all get that the planet is warming, but I am willing to bet that we will enter into another more favorable multi-decadal stretch at some point....I'm sure the troughs won't be quite as deep and the departures won't be as extreme, but it will snow again.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned in my write up that I like the holidays for decent storm potential per analogs.

The latest available Euro Weeklies’ MJO forecast looks very nice for after 12/12 with weak inside COD phase 8 (which just means phase 8 with MJO amp <1), which on average has been cold during winter in the E US during El Niños..keep in mind that weak amp MJO has averaged colder than strong amp MJO:

[stadiumwave]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this has been the case frequently since the super El Niño. Missing a colder storm track in late November isn’t  that big a deal since even a colder track is facing more marginal snowfall climo especially near the coast.

But during the winter it’s a completely different matter. Missing the colder storm track last December with that last minute Southeast ridge pop up was a complete waste of the 2nd lowest December monthly -AO on record.

Then we had the Christmas major flash flooding with that warmer track right after the 40” event in BGM in December 20.

People said that it was understandable that December 2015 would be warm anyway since it was a super El Niño. But no other super El Niño produced a +13 winter month and an historic Southeast ridge like that. Plus we had the historic MJO 4-6 for a super El Niño.

Then we heard how the February 2018 historic warmth and Southeast ridge was just the La Niña climo for February. But the 500 mb height anomaly in the Northeast was higher than any previous date for the entire winter season. And it was our first 80° reading in February. 

In 18-19 we heard how the El Niño was just too weak to couple and it was no big deal. But many weaker El Niño’s had no trouble coupling. That Aleutian ridge-Southeast ridge in 18-19 was not normal for even a weak El Niño. 

The  strong Southeast ridge last winter got blamed on the -PDO. But most -PDOs from the earlier era had much weaker Southeast ridge patterns especially when the AO was negative. 

 

But don't forget that from 2002-2015 we had California folks blaming West coast ridging on CC. The SE ridge trend will eventually end as well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But don't forget that from 2002-2015 we had California folks blaming West coast ridging on CC. The SE ridge trend will eventually end as well. 

I'm with you on this, but we'll always have the CC zealots kicking the can on permanence until they are eventually right.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Forget March 2018?

We all get that the planet is warming, but I am willing to bet that we will enter into another more favorable multi-decadal stretch at some point....I'm sure the troughs won't be quite as deep and the departures won't be as extreme, but it will snow again.

The historic snowfall outcome in March 2018 for places like Long Island was one of the rare benefits of the rapid WPAC warm pool expansion. The record amplitude MJO 6 drove that SSW and March snowfall extravaganza. I would love to see more months like that was the WPAC warms. But they have been in the minority in recent years.

 

https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2020-17/wcd-2020-17-manuscript-version3.pdf

SSW2018 occurred under the favourable conditions of the easterly phase of QBO, La Niña phase of ENSO and followed the MJO phase 6 with the largest amplitude in observational record (from 1974 to 2018) (Barrett, 2019). Barrett (2019) showed that the large-amplitude MJO episode in 2018 affected weather in the north-eastern United States under the conditions of strengthened Rossby wave teleconnections between the tropics and the extratropics. Furthermore, SSW2018 was preceded by a record-breaking meridional eddy heat flux at 100 hPa observed before an SSW since 1958 (see Fig. A1 in Appendix A, also pointed out by Ayarzagüena et al., (2018)).

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The historic snowfall outcome in March 2018 for places like Long Island was one of the rare benefits of the rapid WPAC warm pool expansion. The record amplitude MJO 6 drove that SSW and March snowfall extravaganza. I would love to see more months like that was the WPAC warms. But they have been in the minority in recent years.

 

https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2020-17/wcd-2020-17-manuscript-version3.pdf

SSW2018 occurred under the favourable conditions of the easterly phase of QBO, La Niña phase of ENSO and followed the MJO phase 6 with the largest amplitude in observational record (from 1974 to 2018) (Barrett, 2019). Barrett (2019) showed that the large-amplitude MJO episode in 2018 affected weather in the north-eastern United States under the conditions of strengthened Rossby wave teleconnections between the tropics and the extratropics. Furthermore, SSW2018 was preceded by a record-breaking meridional eddy heat flux at 100 hPa observed before an SSW since 1958 (see Fig. A1 in Appendix A, also pointed out by Ayarzagüena et al., (2018)).

 

 

 

You can find a way to connect anything you would like to the variable of choice...this is why we still have seasoned professionals arguing that we are on the verge of a canonical super el Nino event as we approach December. All I know is I predicted that  Feb SSW and March pattern month 4 months in advance using the March 2001 analog.

There is zero question in my mind that the next time we get a several year stretch of reduced winter time se ridge prominence, you will connect that to CC, as well. Someone will write a study concluding that and you will be there to quote it.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can find a way to connect anything you would like to the variable of choice...this is why still have people arguing that we are on the verge of a canonical super el Nino event as we approach December. All I know if I predicted that month 4 months in advance using the March 2001 analog.

There is zero question in my mind that the next time we get a several year stretch of reduced winter time se ridge prominence, you will connect that to CC, as well.

And there is zero question in my mind that the next time we miss a snowstorm due to a stronger SE ridge you will just chalk it up to bad luck or random chance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

And there is zero question in my mind that the next time we miss a snowstorm due to a stronger SE ridge you will just chalk it up to bad luck or random chance.

Nope....I'll board my family on the next space shuttle to a galaxy far, far away because it will be clear that we are all imminently doomed.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest available Euro Weeklies’ MJO forecast looks very nice for after 12/12 with weak inside COD phase 8 (which just means phase 8 with MJO amp <1), which on average has been cold during winter in the E US during El Niños..keep in mind that weak amp MJO has averaged colder than strong amp MJO:

The latest extended BoM looks similar to the extended Euro of the same day as regards the favorable MJO being forecasted for after Dec 12th: weak (especially near or inside COD) left side often means cold in the E US during El Niño winters

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope....I'll board my family on the next space shuttle to a galaxy far, far away because it will be clear that we are all imminently doomed.

A stronger Southeast ridge doesn’t mean imminent doom. Outside this board, milder winters with lower heating bills are welcomed. We are in the minority enjoying KU events and really cold winters. But it’s not a good thing long term if you are in the snow plow or ski business.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

A stronger Southeast ridge doesn’t mean imminent doom. Outside this board, milder winters with lower heating bills are welcomed. We are in the minority enjoying KU events and really cold winters. But it’s not a good thing long term if you are in the snow plow or ski business.

Ignorance is bliss, I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No one can definitively conclude that any of these regime changes are, or are not permanent at this time because we simply do not have enough data...period. We can come up with scientifically valid ideologies that make sense, theoretically speaking, but we won't know for years whether they are right of wrong. But the smart money is on them not being permanent, just as all of the theories on "permanent" changes before them. All we know for certain is that the planet is warming. The onus is on folks to prove that these changes are in fact permanent and that will take many more years. The onus is not on others to prove that the changes are not permanent.

[GaWx]

Today’s NOAA ENSO update has these:

Nino 1+2:  +2.0

Nino 3:      +2.1

Nino 3+4: +1.9

Nino 4:      +1.5

 That’s just about as flat as it can get, especially for 1+2 vs 3 vs 3.4. Thus, this is no longer a simple EP Nino. And if 3.4 continues to warm faster than the other two, it will trend more and more toward CP:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s NOAA ENSO update has these:

Nino 1+2:  +2.0

Nino 3:      +2.1

Nino 3+4: +1.9

Nino 4:      +1.5

 That’s just about as flat as it can get, especially for 1+2 vs 3 vs 3.4. Thus, this is no longer a simple EP Nino. And if 3.4 continues to warm faster than the other two, it will trend more and more toward CP:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

This is what has been forecast all along.

[snowman19]

Today’s NOAA ENSO update has these:
Nino 1+2:  +2.0
Nino 3:      +2.1
Nino 3+4: +1.9
Nino 4:      +1.5
 That’s just about as flat as it can get, especially for 1+2 vs 3 vs 3.4. Thus, this is no longer a simple EP Nino. And if 3.4 continues to warm faster than the other two, it will trend more and more toward CP:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

A true CP/Modoki wouldn’t have region 3 this warm. It’s very likely 1+2 warms back up when the KW resurfaces off the South American coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline and is continuing to get pushed further east by the WWB. My forecast of a super ONI with a late December/January peak stands

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A true CP/Modoki wouldn’t have region 3 this warm. It’s very likely 1+2 warms back up when the KW resurfaces off the South American coast. The warm pool is now completely east of the dateline and is continuing to get pushed further east by the WWB. My forecast of a super ONI with a late December/January peak stands

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 It isn’t CP. But it isn’t EP either. It is between those. And if we get the super Nino that you’ve been forecasting, that would likely mean Nino 3.4 gets to ~+2.3 on the weeklies. That would likely keep a EP from redeveloping. The most recent weekly 3.4 is the +1.9 issued today (covers last week). So, we still haven’t even had a +2.0 weekly yet though that may change next week depending on the rest of this week.

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

where do you get these maps? when i try looking them up i only get the cpc subsurface anomaly maps

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/pmel-theme/pacific-ocean-tao

You can click on "Data", then "Data Display" then "Assorted Plots"

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I don't expect anyone to change their stance at this stage. But the fact is that if this goes on to act like a super canonical el Nini event after a SO MEI of .3, then it will be a first. 

[GaWx]

-The cyclonicwx.com OISST updated for the first time in 3 days. Nino 3.4 is up to +2.05, up from the +1.89 of 3 days ago and compared to the latest OISST on WCS of +2.07. So, the two are now very close together.

 

Today’s cyclonicwx OISST for the Nino regions:

-1+2: +1.91

-3: +2.27

-3.4: +2.05 (was +1.98 yesterday)

-4: +1.49

 So, per OISST 3.4 of either source with both still rising, there’s a good shot at +2.0 or +2.1 to be reported for the next weekly (the one based on the avg of this cal. week’s data). Even a +2.2 isn’t out of the question if there continue to be large rises the rest of this week though I think that chance is small. But even a +2.2 would likely still not be high enough for a weekly peak to support a +2.0+ ONI. There’d probably need to be a +2.3 in some future week to get the unrounded ONI to reach +2.0+ (what I’d then classify as super) based on recent El Niños. It is even possible that a +2.4 week would be needed. Regardless, the chances have obviously increased for a super ONI vs where they were 4 days ago.

[snowman19]

Fits the strong/super El Niño/+IOD evolution very very well:

@WxUSAF:

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

So, per OISST of either source with both still rising, there’s a good shot at +2.0 or +2.1 to be reported for the next weekly (the one based on the avg of this cal. week’s data). Even a +2.2 isn’t out of the question if there continue to be large rises the rest of this week though I think that chance is small. But even a +2.2 would likely still not be high enough for a weekly peak to support a +2.0+ ONI. There’d probably need to be a +2.3 in some future week to get the unrounded ONI to reach +2.0+ (what I’d then classify as super) based on recent El Niños. It is even possible that a +2.4 week would be needed. Regardless, the chances have obviously increased for a super ONI vs where they were 4 days ago.

Probably won’t make much difference on the sensible weather pattern whether the ONI peaks at strong or super. It may be more important whether the -PDO or Niña-like pattern continues to play the back and forth with the El Niño. A super El Niño can displace the Aleutian low too close to the Western US. But a -PDO El Niño can do the same thing due to the stronger Aleutian ridge NW of Hawaii. So while some may not technically call it an Aleutian low, any troughing in the Western US could produce the same warm outcome for the Northeast. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can find a way to connect anything you would like to the variable of choice...this is why we still have seasoned professionals arguing that we are on the verge of a canonical super el Nino event as we approach December. All I know is I predicted that  Feb SSW and March pattern month 4 months in advance using the March 2001 analog.

There is zero question in my mind that the next time we get a several year stretch of reduced winter time se ridge prominence, you will connect that to CC, as well. Someone will write a study concluding that and you will be there to quote it.

In 18-19 there was a record cold snap during the dead of Winter in the midwest, nino and all.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Fits the strong/super El Niño/+IOD evolution very very well:
 

 

 

 

 

I know Webb didn’t, but did you bother to click on Roundy’s link and see that the pattern he’s showing looks very NON-torchy for the east CONUS??

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I know Webb didn’t, but did you bother to click on Roundy’s link and see that the pattern he’s showing looks very NON-torchy for the east CONUS??

Those composite analogs on that site are very hit or miss for forecasts beyond 15 days. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Those composite analogs on that site are very hit and miss for forecasts beyond 15 days. 

Oh I’m sure. Just was laughing to myself with Webb thinking Roundy’s post validated his super-Nino east CONUS December torch prediction when it looks quite the opposite.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh I’m sure. Just was laughing to myself with Webb thinking Roundy’s post validated his super-Nino east CONUS December torch prediction when it looks quite the opposite.

Oh I see what you mean. I think a bunch of stuff gets retweeted or agreed with without people fully looking at what they are retweeting or agreeing with. 

[snowman19]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-The cyclonicwx.com OISST updated for the first time in 3 days. Nino 3.4 is up to +2.05, up from the +1.89 of 3 days ago and compared to the latest OISST on WCS of +2.07. So, the two are now very close together.
 
Today’s cyclonicwx OISST for the Nino regions:
-1+2: +1.91
-3: +2.27
-3.4: +2.05 (was +1.98 yesterday)
-4: +1.49
 So, per OISST 3.4 of either source with both still rising, there’s a good shot at +2.0 or +2.1 to be reported for the next weekly (the one based on the avg of this cal. week’s data). Even a +2.2 isn’t out of the question if there continue to be large rises the rest of this week though I think that chance is small. But even a +2.2 would likely still not be high enough for a weekly peak to support a +2.0+ ONI. There’d probably need to be a +2.3 in some future week to get the unrounded ONI to reach +2.0+ (what I’d then classify as super) based on recent El Niños. It is even possible that a +2.4 week would be needed. Regardless, the chances have obviously increased for a super ONI vs where they were 4 days ago.

Next week is extremely likely to feature the 1st over +2.0C weekly reading for 3.4 from the CPC. I was off by a couple of weeks, I thought that would happen by mid-month but it’s still coming nonetheless.

Another spike in the ++IOD this week, it peaked in late October….still a top tier very strong event. Probably goes to neutral come late January. When you figure the atmospheric lag in, it should continue to have an effect on the long wave global pattern into the end of winter even if it goes neutral oceanically at the end of January

 

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

@snowman19 again, that pattern Roundy shows is quite different than anything Webb is suggesting.