El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

37 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO ENSO strength is most important, followed by the location of the related base Walker Cell uplift and subsidence regions that become established.  There are associations that come from the prior year ENSO state as well.  In terms of the timing of ENSO peak...the main thing that maintains El Nino ONI strength is low-level westerly wind anomalies that push out of the W Pac and into the C and E Pac.  That same westerly wind push from WPac to EPac is consistent with MJO phases 7-8-1-2.  So, I'd say it's a good thing for El Nino to be maintaining and gaining in strength at this point as long as it doesn't go bonkers and get into Super Nino territory from a multi-month ONI standpoint (unlikely this year, but not out of the question)...but based on many prior cases, El Ninos are going to hold their ONI strength at least into early winter (87-88 being one of the rare exceptions as that one faded during fall & winter)

87-88 was a 2nd year Niño that likely just ran out of gas. Plus, it acted like a Nina back in BWI land if memory serves.  The early November storm was the highlight of the winter as it turned out.

[Eskimo Joe]

53 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO ENSO strength is most important, followed by the location of the related base Walker Cell uplift and subsidence regions that become established.  There are associations that come from the prior year ENSO state as well.  In terms of the timing of ENSO peak...the main thing that maintains El Nino ONI strength is low-level westerly wind anomalies that push out of the W Pac and into the C and E Pac.  That same westerly wind push from WPac to EPac is consistent with MJO phases 7-8-1-2.  So, I'd say it's a good thing for El Nino to be maintaining and gaining in strength at this point as long as it doesn't go bonkers and get into Super Nino territory from a multi-month ONI standpoint (unlikely this year, but not out of the question)...but based on many prior cases, El Ninos are going to hold their ONI strength at least into early winter (87-88 being one of the rare exceptions as that one faded during fall & winter)

Thank you very much for the insight. I really appreciate the explanation.

[raindancewx]

Subtropical jet looks like it is placed pretty differently to 2009 so far, despite that November being a pretty good temperature match nationally. After this month, I don't think the pattern will look much like 2009 for a while, likely until March. Northwest and Southeast moisture paths are completely different for November.

Through 11/19, we're at about 0.5 inches in the city in 2023. All of Nov 2009 only had 0.04". The wetter El Ninos in my outlook group included 1972, 1982, 1997, with 1991 near-record wet, and then 1951 and 2009 quite dry. I've always liked the 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 group more for precip than temps, so it's nice to see that working out so far. I think you can see on the precip pattern why I've been skeptical of a 2009-10 / Modoki outcome. I think the precip patterns will be off from the ideal Nor'easter track later on. A lot of times the Oct-Nov precip patterns that setup more or less repeat, shifting north/south with the day length.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 What source do you go by for the subsurface? 

The event is rapidly strengthening on TAO/Triton.

CPC's update usually lags by a week or two. 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Subtropical jet looks like it is placed pretty differently to 2009 so far, despite that November being a pretty good temperature match nationally. After this month, I don't think the pattern will look much like 2009 for a while, likely until March. Northwest and Southeast moisture paths are completely different for November.

Through 11/19, we're at about 0.5 inches in the city in 2023. All of Nov 2009 only had 0.04". The wetter El Ninos in my outlook group included 1972, 1982, 1997, with 1991 near-record wet, and then 1951 and 2009 quite dry. I've always liked the 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 group more for precip than temps, so it's nice to see that working out so far. I think you can see on the precip pattern why I've been skeptical of a 2009-10 / Modoki outcome. I think the precip patterns will be off from the ideal Nor'easter track later on. A lot of times the Oct-Nov precip patterns that setup more or less repeat, shifting north/south with the day length.

 

Its been dry in the MA/SE lately, but that’s about to change.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Subtropical jet looks like it is placed pretty differently to 2009 so far, despite that November being a pretty good temperature match nationally.

I don't know.. one storm cut up into the SE in 2009, and one storm didn't this year? I think the pattern is above average precip right now generally.. this goes back to when -NAO's were active last Dec and March (anomaly).  

[DarkSharkWX]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The event is rapidly strengthening on TAO/Triton.

CPC's update usually lags by a week or two. 

where do you get these maps? when i try looking them up i only get the cpc subsurface anomaly maps

[GaWx]

 Looking at the latest TAO 5 day OHC map vs 10 days earlier (ignore the area west of 180 because that doesn’t “count” so to speak), it clearly is warmer with a lot more volume that is warmer (including some that is as much as 2C warmer) than cooler. What’s easiest to see is the volume that is yellow or orange (3C+) is much larger W of 140W on the 11/14-18 map vs the 11/4-8 map. The volume of +5+ is significantly larger on this same map vs the only small volume of +5+ on the older map. The volume of 0 or lower within 165W to 180 is much smaller. So, TAO subsurface is, indeed, at its warmest so far this event and may still be warming further. I very roughly estimate that the 100W-180 OHC on this, which covers 2S to 2N, is +2.0C. I’m assuming that the OHC for 5S to 5N, had it also been available from TAO, is substantially less than +2.0C since I assume that the warmest OHC is closest to the equator. Regardless, it also just about has to be warming and I’m betting is probably close to its warmest yet this event:

[bluewave]

All this talk of how strong the El Niño is getting is pretty much moot since it’s still not well coupled with the mid latitude pattern across the North Pacific and North America. The November pattern so far is much closer to the La Niña composite with and Aleutian Ridge and secondary ridge near the Southern Rockies and Plains. The cooler trough near New England is also a November La Niña pattern. The persistent La Niña background state is one reason that November is one of the few months out of the year with cooler departures located near the Northeast. Most other months of the year have been near to record warm. 
 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All this talk of how strong the El Niño is getting is pretty much moot since it’s still not well coupled with the mid latitude pattern across the North Pacific and North America. The November pattern so far is much closer to the La Niña composite with and Aleutian Ridge and secondary ridge near the Southern Rockies and Plains. The cooler trough near New England is also a November La Niña pattern. The persistent La Niña background state is one reason that November is one of the few months out of the year with cooler departures located near the Northeast. Most other months of the year have been near to record warm. 
 

I do think that's going to change starting this week.

[bluewave]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I do think that's going to change starting this week.

What we are seeing this week is just more back and forth. The coming -EPO +PNA is more El Niño-like. But the occasional Southeast ridge and warmer storm track next few days is classic La Niña. So my guess is that the El Niño and La Niña influences will continue to compete for influence. This back and forth has been going on since last spring.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Its been dry in the MA/SE lately, but that’s about to change.

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What we are seeing this week is just more back and forth. The coming -EPO +PNA is more El Niño-like. But the occasional Southeast ridge and warmer storm track next few days is classic La Niña. So my guess is that the El Niño and La Niña influences will continue to compete for influence. This back and forth has been going on since last spring.  

You can get a SE ridge in a Niño as well as back and forth, especially in Nov and Dec. So I  don't think it's necessarily a Nina holdover. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

One group tormenting us with talk of how el Nino is going to continue to grow and swallow winter whole, and the other warning how the lingering la Nina base state will cancel winter. Hopefully a compromise plays nicely lol

This place is a trip.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

where do you get these maps? when i try looking them up i only get the cpc subsurface anomaly maps

 

Go here: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/getpage/

Select:

Daily Maps and Composites: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and related datasets

 

Choose 11/1/23 to 11/17/23 to get this:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Precipitation+Rate&level=Surface&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&monr1=11&dayr1=1&monr2=11&dayr2=17&iyr[1]=2023&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=&cint=&lowr=&highr=&istate=0&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You can get a SE ridge in a Niño as well as back and forth, especially in Nov and Dec. So I  don't think it's necessarily a Nina holdover. 

In this case it is as the previous runs with less of a Southeast ridge this week didn’t have the La Niña-like forcing near the Maritime Continent.  All it takes is for a small amount of forcing in the MJO 4-6 regions for the Southeast ridge to develop. It may not even show  on the RMM charts but it’s there on the VP anomaly charts. 

New runs more Southeast ridge and Maritime Continent forcing

 

Old runs less Maritime continent forcing and Southeast ridge

 

 

[GaWx]

 At only a reliable 780 hours out, the 0Z 11/19 GEFS has an Aleutian trough and +PNA on 12/21 during what I think will be a left side MJO (phase 8/1). The extended models’ MJO progs fwiw really do suggest the MJO will be in those phases after 12/15 and those phases along with El Niño would support an Aleutian trough/+PNA:

 

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In this case it is as the previous runs with less of a Southeast ridge this week didn’t have the La Niña-like forcing near the Maritime Continent.  All it takes is for a small amount of forcing in the MJO 4-6 regions for the Southeast ridge to develop. It may not even show  on the RMM charts but it’s there on the VP anomaly charts. 

New runs more Southeast ridge and Maritime Continent forcing

 

Old runs less Maritime continent forcing and Southeast ridge

 

 

That’s not a true SE ridge. On that same run, it only lasts for one day. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That’s not a true SE ridge. On that same run, it only lasts for one day. 

One day is all you need to force a warmer storm track.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One day is all you need to force a warmer storm track.

You're never going to get a season entirely absent of se ridges....I feel like some of us are guilty of overanalyzing a surfeit of data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 At only a reliable 780 hours out, the 0Z 11/19 GEFS has an Aleutian trough and +PNA on 12/21 during what I think will be a left side MJO (phase 8/1). The extended models’ MJO progs fwiw really do suggest the MJO will be in those phases after 12/15 and those phases along with El Niño would support an Aleutian trough/+PNA:

+PNA: World Climate Service 500mb anomaly map for a strongly positive Pacific North America pattern in winter

I mentioned in my write up that I like the holidays for decent storm potential per analogs.

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One day is all you need to force a warmer storm track.

This wave was never going to be a cold storm track to begin with. It’s not “proof” that we’re still in a La Nina, which we are not in anymore. 

like 40/70 said, there’ll be ebb and flow between SE ridging and EC troughing even in a snowy winter.

[Volcanic Winter]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned in my write up that I like the holidays a for decent storm potential per analogs.

Really wanted to emphasize how incredible your work was on your winter outlook. The depth and detail really blew me away and I found it a super engaging read. Thank you. 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This wave was never going to be a cold storm track to begin with. It’s not “proof” that we’re still in a La Nina, which we are not in anymore. 

like 40/70 said, there’ll be ebb and flow between SE ridging and EC troughing even in a snowy winter.

I have to say I do agree with Bluewave that ill-timed southeast ridge pops have been a recurring issue in why the east has struggled with storm tracks. Many waves that are promising on a ten day seemed to inevitably be shifted west as the southeast ridge appears moving forward in time, killing any chances before we ever had one. 

This is not a prognostication on this winter, just acknowledging a past issue and hoping it doesn’t repeat. Honestly I’m pretty optimistic on this winter overall (thanks for all your work too, Terpeast). 

This thread has been a treasure trove of info and analysis this year and all the various perspectives have helped me learn a tremendous amount. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

This wave was never going to be a cold storm track to begin with. It’s not “proof” that we’re still in a La Nina, which we are not in anymore. 

like 40/70 said, there’ll be ebb and flow between SE ridging and EC troughing even in a snowy winter.

Especially knowing how potent the PV is right now...some SE ridge flexes should not be a shock.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Really wanted to emphasize how incredible your work was on your winter outlook. The depth and detail really blew me away and I found it a super engaging read. Thank you. 

 

Thanks, brother....appreciate your help with the volcanic implications on the polar domain. I know I synthesized the data/conceptualizations and composed the narrative, but it truly is a group effort. I have learned so much from this place...and pulled so many graphics. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I have to say I do agree with Bluewave that ill-timed southeast ridge pops have been a recurring issue in why the east has struggled with storm tracks. Many waves that are promising on a ten day seemed to inevitably be shifted west as the southeast ridge appears moving forward in time, killing any chances before we ever had one. 

This is not a prognostication on this winter, just acknowledging a past issue and hoping it doesn’t repeat. Honestly I’m pretty optimistic on this winter overall (thanks for all your work too, Terpeast). 

This thread has been a treasure trove of info and analysis this year and all the various perspectives have helped me learn a tremendous amount. 

I have noticed a couple of notable threats trend seaward, as well....this past weekend and another prominent one a couple of weeks ago.

[mitchnick]

If you run through the 0z EPS through the end of the run, the SE Ridge is essentially nonexistent, which is why I  posted earlier that things would change this week. The other ensembles are that different. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023112000&fh=0

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I have to say I do agree with Bluewave that ill-timed southeast ridge pops have been a recurring issue in why the east has struggled with storm tracks. Many waves that are promising on a ten day seemed to inevitably be shifted west as the southeast ridge appears moving forward in time, killing any chances before we ever had one. 

This is not a prognostication on this winter, just acknowledging a past issue and hoping it doesn’t repeat. Honestly I’m pretty optimistic on this winter overall (thanks for all your work too, Terpeast). 

This thread has been a treasure trove of info and analysis this year and all the various perspectives have helped me learn a tremendous amount. 

That’s a fair point and I appreciate it. 

Maybe it was not his intent, but what annoys me a bit is the practice of cherry-picking bits of data to prove (or attempt to prove) one’s point despite the presence of data that shows the contrary.

Maybe I’m guilty of the same, so it’s a good exercise in being objective and keeping each other honest. 

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I have to say I do agree with Bluewave that ill-timed southeast ridge pops have been a recurring issue in why the east has struggled with storm tracks. Many waves that are promising on a ten day seemed to inevitably be shifted west as the southeast ridge appears moving forward in time, killing any chances before we ever had one. 

This is not a prognostication on this winter, just acknowledging a past issue and hoping it doesn’t repeat. Honestly I’m pretty optimistic on this winter overall (thanks for all your work too, Terpeast). 

This thread has been a treasure trove of info and analysis this year and all the various perspectives have helped me learn a tremendous amount. 

Yeah, this has been the case frequently since the super El Niño. Missing a colder storm track in late November isn’t  that big a deal since even a colder track is facing more marginal snowfall climo especially near the coast.

But during the winter it’s a completely different matter. Missing the colder storm track last December with that last minute Southeast ridge pop up was a complete waste of the 2nd lowest December monthly -AO on record.

Then we had the Christmas major flash flooding with that warmer track right after the 40” event in BGM in December 20.

People said that it was understandable that December 2015 would be warm anyway since it was a super El Niño. But no other super El Niño produced a +13 winter month and an historic Southeast ridge like that. Plus we had the historic MJO 4-6 for a super El Niño.

Then we heard how the February 2018 historic warmth and Southeast ridge was just the La Niña climo for February. But the 500 mb height anomaly in the Northeast was higher than any previous date for the entire winter season. And it was our first 80° reading in February. 

In 18-19 we heard how the El Niño was just too weak to couple and it was no big deal. But many weaker El Niño’s had no trouble coupling. That Aleutian ridge-Southeast ridge in 18-19 was not normal for even a weak El Niño. 

The  strong Southeast ridge last winter got blamed on the -PDO. But most -PDOs from the earlier era had much weaker Southeast ridge patterns especially when the AO was negative.