El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

 

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And then it has to sustain for 3 full months without falling to even get minimal Super Nino on ONI…that doesn’t seem realistic. You’d basically have to sustain >2.0C well into February unless you can get a single monthly reading really high (say something like 2.3C or so). I don’t really see a path to how that happens. 
 

I’ll never rule it out completely since ENSO is a very humbling thing to predict…but I’d probably want big odds to bet on it. 

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out 

[mitchnick]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out 

So we're talking apples to apples, daily or weekly +2.3 is certainly possible. But what most here, as I  understand it, are referring to are trimonthly numbers. I don't see a trimonthly or a monthly at +2.3. 2009 had 2 consecutive weeklies at +1.9 but only maxed at +1.6 with 1 trimonthly. Plus you now have a time issue since Niños traditionally peak the end of December, though some modelling suggest a January peak is possible this time. In any event, it seems to me you'll need at least one month at +2.3 to have any shot at a trimonthly at +2 or more.

[George001]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Given the huge eastward push of the warm pool from the very strong WWB and the robust DWKW activity, consistent with high-end strong/super Nino’s, a +2.3C reading would not surprise me at all. All we can do is watch from here on out 

I don’t entirely disagree with you, this is a strong nino right now and like you said in an earlier post the active STJ reflects that. However, I would be shocked if we have a monthly average of +2.3C. We are also on borrowed time. We have about a month left of warming before the event peaks according to most guidance and climatology. Regardless, I don’t think it’s super relevant whether we peak at 1.8 or 2.1 ONI. A 1.8 ONI El Niño is far from weak, it’s high end strong/borderline super. The guidance usually has a good grasp on the peak strength by this point, it’s the structure and how rapidly the event weakens that is still uncertain.

[GaWx]

After cooling back the last couple of days to the E, today’s 5 day TAO has for the first time this Nino the +2.5 isotherm (warmest anomaly on this) well to the west…..in the 157-170W region, which is W Nino 3.4 or E Nino 4: look at the strong WWB near 175-165E! It is also cooling some W of the dateline:

 

 

Compare to 8 days ago, which was warmer  E of 140W (warmest of season) and cooler 150-175W; it was then slightly warmer W of the dateline:

[snowman19]

So we're talking apples to apples, daily or weekly +2.3 is certainly possible. But what most here, as I  understand it, are referring to are trimonthly numbers. I don't see a trimonthly or a monthly at +2.3. 2009 had 2 consecutive weeklies at +1.9 but only maxed at +1.6 with 1 trimonthly. Plus you now have a time issue since Niños traditionally peak the end of December, though some modelling suggest a January peak is possible this time. In any event, it seems to me you'll need at least one month at +2.3 to have any shot at a trimonthly at +2 or more.

IMO it peaks late December/January. I don’t think an ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C is far fetched, especially given what is going on right now with the WWB, DWKW, push eastward of the warm water pool east of the dateline. Given the increase in warm water volume and sea level anomalies since the tail end of October, a rather big jump in warming is well within the realm of possibilities over the next month or so

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO it peaks late December/January. I don’t think an ONI of +2.1C - +2.3C is far fetched, especially given what is going on right now with the WWB, DWKW, push eastward of the warm water pool east of the dateline. Given the increase in warm water volume and sea level anomalies since the tail end of October, a rather big jump in warming is well within the realm of possibilities over the next month or so

 

 

It has been warming in Nino 3, 3.4 and 4, but this is no longer an EP Nino. It has been warming in 3.4 faster than others and cooling in 1+2. Look at the TAO maps I just posted. This transition has occurred earlier than models and I expected. I thought it would take at least another month.

[griteater]

+2.00

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

It has been warming in Nino 3, 3.4 and 4, but this is no longer an EP Nino. It has been warming in 3.4 faster than others and cooling in 1+2. Look at the TAO maps I just posted. This transition has occurred earlier than models and I expected. I thought it would take at least another month.

It’s really a +30C forcing battle between the Maritime Continent and the area around the Dateline as the IOD is rapidly fading with big SST increases in MJO 4-6.

 

 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s really a +30C forcing battle between the Maritime Continent and the area around the Dateline as the IOD is rapidly fading. 

 

With the 30+ area growing in 170W-160W (far W Nino 3.4) and the strong WWB just to its west, let’s see what western and possibly central 3.4 does in the near future.

[bluewave]

Just now, GaWx said:

With the 30+ area growing in 170W-160W (far W Nino 3.4) and the strong WWB just to its west, let’s see what western and possibly central 3.4 does in the near future.

You can already see the forcing back and forth this month. 

 

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can already see the forcing back and forth this month. 

 

Makes sense since the MJO has been W to C Pac so far this month and is forecasted to go into IO (2-3 11/25-12/2).

[bluewave]

Just now, GaWx said:

Makes sense since the MJO has been W to C Pac so far this month and is forecasted to go into IO (2-3 11/25-12/2).

So we get a battle between the Nino-like +PNA -EPO and Niña-like Southeast ridge around Thanksgiving. 
 

[GaWx]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So we get a battle between the Nino-like +PNA -EPO and Niña-like Southeast ridge around Thanksgiving. 
 

And if it goes the way it appears to me it may go, MJO will be back to 8/1 W/C Pacific mid Dec+.

[BlizzardWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

So we get a battle between the Nino-like +PNA -EPO and Niña-like Southeast ridge around Thanksgiving. 
 

This is a good set up for my area. Might see our first snow or ice in this pattern if it works out right. 

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

@bluewave

[stadiumwave]

If something massive does not occur with the SST's we gonna give @snowman19 heck, lol. 

[snowman19]

[griteater]

I don't think this kind of warming that we are seeing is unexpected or surprising given the magnitude of this westerly wind burst.  IMO the bigger question is what happens going foward, as I believe we're going to need to see additional waves of westerly wind anomalies move across the nino regions in order to maintain / further grow the warming SST anomalies. 

I will be surprised if this moves closer to a big east-based Nino with the low frequency / base state uplift moving well east of the dateline like 83/98.  I think the most likely outcome is a strong nino, but not quite super, with the mean uplift being moderate to strong in strength and hanging close to the dateline....this would yield a promising outlook ENSO-wise for the eastern U.S.  Other factors will fight against the promising outlook though: 1) Current year global warmth, 2) Strongly -PDO for a Nino, 3) Early Strat PV is strong - on that front, the good news is that there is no evidence at the moment of it coupling with the troposphere which is big in early winter.

[GaWx]

There has been solid warming in 3.4 last few days (seemingly from the W portion as per TAO) but very likely not with the rapidity that the cyclonicwx.com CRW (posted below) is showing, which is 0.43C in just three days! That’s more like what the much smaller Nino 1+2 sometimes does, not 3+4. Instead, my educated guess is that CRW was much too cool to begin with in having the cooling to +1.55 for several days even while OISST was ~+1.80.  @griteaternoted that the dataset he follows, OSTIA, has acted similarly. So, whereas the near +2.0 in CRW is probably pretty accurate, I think what’s happening is that a good portion of this massive 0.43C rise in just three days on CRW was really a correction for showing cooler than reality the prior days.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave
 

I have been pointing out how warm the area from the Dateline back to the WPAC has been since last spring. That’s why I though it was unlikely that this would follow the trajectory of a big east based event like 97-98. So now we have +30C near the Dateline and around  the Maritime Continent. That’s why we are seeing the forcing back and forth between those regions right now. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The subsurface is also rapidly warming, the highest it's been in the event so far. Also to note is there are no negative anomalies in the western ENSO subsurface (a lot of stronger Nino's in the past had cold water below Nino 3.4-4 at this time of the year). 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The subsurface is also rapidly warming, the highest it's been in the event so far. Also to note is there are no negative anomalies in the western ENSO subsurface (a lot of stronger Nino's in the past had cold water below Nino 3.4-4 at this time of the year). 

 What source do you go by for the subsurface? Whether or not it is the warmest of the event to date depends on the source and latitude domain from what I’ve seen. I’ve been saying it has been the warmest since early November using TAO per my eyes. But the NOAA OHC time series graph is still not as warm as it was in mid June or even in late August. And then to make it more confusing, the NOAA OHC graph has been cooler than the NOAA monthly table. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 11/18/2023 at 3:02 PM, griteater said:

+2.00

Does the timing of the ENSO peak matter as much as the placement and strength?

[GaWx]

- Here we go again with cyclonicwx OISST. No update in two days.

- But WCS is up to date in 3.4 with +2.04, the warmest yet. Keep in mind that WCS has recently been 0.08 warmer fwiw. The implication is that cyclonicwx’s OISST might still be more like +1.96 as a wild guess though that would still be close to 2.

- WCS PDO remains down at -1.27 with no sign of an impending rise. NOAA is likely -2 or lower. Not what I want to see obviously.

 

[Terpeast]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

- Here we go again with cyclonicwx OISST. No update in two days.

- But WCS is up to date in 3.4 with +2.04, the warmest yet. Keep in mind that WCS has recently been 0.08 warmer fwiw. The implication is that cyclonicwx’s OISST might still be more like +1.96 as a wild guess though that would still be close to 2.

- WCS PDO remains down at -1.27 with no sign of an impending rise. NOAA is likely -2 or lower. Not what I want to see obviously.

 

I wouldn’t worry about the -PDO because I think it has bottomed out at only -1.3 instead of -2 to -2.5 troughs we’ve seen in the last 2 years.

Besides we’ll see more troughing N of hawaii in the next two weeks as supported by most ensembles. To me that’s a sign that the PDO will rise, or at least decouple.

The NOAA value is likely lagging.

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Does the timing of the ENSO peak matter as much as the placement and strength?

IMO ENSO strength is most important, followed by the location of the related base Walker Cell uplift and subsidence regions that become established.  There are associations that come from the prior year ENSO state as well.  In terms of the timing of ENSO peak...the main thing that maintains El Nino ONI strength is low-level westerly wind anomalies that push out of the W Pac and into the C and E Pac.  That same westerly wind push from WPac to EPac is consistent with MJO phases 7-8-1-2.  So, I'd say it's a good thing for El Nino to be maintaining and gaining in strength at this point as long as it doesn't go bonkers and get into Super Nino territory from a multi-month ONI standpoint (unlikely this year, but not out of the question)...but based on many prior cases, El Ninos are going to hold their ONI strength at least into early winter (87-88 being one of the rare exceptions as that one faded during fall & winter)