El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

TAO 5 day averaged SSTa maps covering 3.4 have recently been cooling back some. But along comes this nonsense from CRW lmao: a warming of 0.17C in 3.4 in one day?? This amount of warming in just one day is laughable/not credible. It was probably too cool the prior day(s):

 

 

[griteater]

snowman's dreams are coming true.  3.4 is up to +1.97 on World Climate Service

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

TAO 5 day averaged SSTa maps covering 3.4 have recently been cooling back some. But along comes this nonsense from CRW lmao: a warming of 0.17C in 3.4 in one day?? This is laughable/not credible. It was probably too cool the prior day(s):

UKMO OSTIA also had a big jump today in 3.4 from +1.56 to +1.72....so, some strange stuff going on this week with the data.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, griteater said:

snowman's dreams are coming true.  3.4 is up to +1.97 on World Climate Service

this should be a temporary spike… there doesn’t appear to be another WWB that will sustain the warmth. so i could see a week or so of values over 2C, but a monthly period will be tough to do. let alone a trimonthly period 

[Terpeast]

If anything, the recent spike (was it really a spike, or some aberration with data?) will help shift us to an El Nino base state. Anything to wipe out the residual nina effects - and I think that will happen.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

UKMO OSTIA also had a big jump today in 3.4 from +1.56 to +1.72....so, some strange stuff going on this week with the data.

Do you think it’s possible that heavier than normal cloudcover cooled things off too much/skewed things in the CRW and OSTIA datasets the prior few days and less cloudcover today allowed for the big jump? Doesn’t cloudcover mess with the accuracy of satellite based SST datasets?

PS How long before the cyclonicwx OISST updates? I hope we don’t have to wait 8 days again.

[raindancewx]

My personal view is the models that have the Northeast / Midwest pretty warm are looking at the very warm waters consistently by Japan. They're seeing ridging there, and they have it continuing through winter. That's a +WPO look, and it's hard to get real cold with that in the East.

I've been pleased with the progression of the Fall as an anti-log to 1993. That year anti-1993 look has been very useful so far. It's super cold, coldest north, while 2023 is very warm, warmest south.

Fall overall should finish like a blend of severe -PDO years with some warm Nino 1.2 years blended in there. To me, Fall looks a lot like 1947. Lot of other years with similar patterns to 2023, that are a step or two below 1947 including: 1940 (El Nino), 1956 (La Nina), 1960 (Neutral), and then arguably 2004, 2007, 2011, 2016, 2021. Good luck I guess Easterners? 1983 isn't too bad either.

These were not my analogs, but if you had to pick the most similar Fall temperature profiles for the US, I think its maybe 1940, 1947, 1956, 1960, 1983, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2021 - very similar to the blend shown below.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sign me up for 1940 1947, 1956, 1960, 1983, 2004, 2007 or even 2016. ...no skin off of by b***s if that composite works out. Only three seasons in that raindance list that I would pass on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

snowman's dreams are coming true.  3.4 is up to +1.97 on World Climate Service

No surprise..I've maintained all along that I will need some 2.0+ dailies to hit my 1.7-1.9 forecast ONI range.

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My personal view is the models that have the Northeast / Midwest pretty warm are looking at the very warm waters consistently by Japan. They're seeing ridging there, and they have it continuing through winter. That's a +WPO look, and it's hard to get real cold with that in the East.

I've been pleased with the progression of the Fall as an anti-log to 1993. That year anti-1993 look has been very useful so far. It's super cold, coldest north, while 2023 is very warm, warmest south.

Fall overall should finish like a blend of severe -PDO years with some warm Nino 1.2 years blended in there. To me, Fall looks a lot like 1947. Lot of other years with similar patterns to 2023, that are a step or two below 1947 including: 1940 (El Nino), 1956 (La Nina), 1960 (Neutral), and then arguably 2004, 2007, 2011, 2016, 2021. Good luck I guess Easterners? 1983 isn't too bad either.

These were not my analogs, but if you had to pick the most similar Fall temperature profiles for the US, I think its maybe 1940, 1947, 1956, 1960, 1983, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2021 - very similar to the blend shown below.

To counterbalance with the other side of this, I find that analog winters with an Aleutian low often have upstream ridging over Japan and just off their coast. 

I thought to myself that it’s not a bad thing to have if we want cold and snow in the east, as long we have a downstream trough off the aleutians. 

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No surprise..I've maintained all along that I will need some 2.0+ dailies to hit my 1.7-1.9 forecast ONI range.

 Looking back at the relationship between the peak of weeklies (OISST based) and the peak of trimonthlies/ONI (ERSST based) since 2006-7:

2006: 1.2 v 0.9

2009: 1.9 v 1.6

2014: 0.9 v 0.7 

2015: 3.0 v 2.6

2018: 1.1 v 0.9

 

 So, for these last 5 El Niños, the weekly peak has exceeded the trimonthly peak every time (not surprising due to the math, alone, of course even with them based on different datasets). The weekly peak exceeded trimonthly peak between 0.2 and 0.4 with the average being 0.3. This suggests that the weekly peak can end up as warm as +2.3 and still end up at only +1.9 for ONI. Keep in mind that they use different base periods (in addition to them being different datasets) to come up with anomalies.

[griteater]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

It is a good tweet showing the extreme contrast. But Noll’s maps are off with the drawing of the Nino 3.4 region. He has 3.4 from 120W to 170E instead of 120-170W. So, his 3.4 is too long. Thus, that 2023 western green area is hardly in 3.4 as it is almost all west of there. I’d like to see more rising air move into 3.4 the next few months. That would seemingly favor MJO phases 8 and 1 more than what this 2023 map suggests. His map has rising air mainly in the W portion of Nino 4, the E portion of Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 of the Nino regions and thus leaves 3.4 out. Other opinions?

09-10 winter had -VP centered in nino 4.  97-98 winter had it centered in nino 3 (and with strong forcing).  If we start seeing convection firing in MJO 4-5-6 for more than a quick pass, it's likely due to climate change / those waters wanting to remain warm in spite of a robust nino.  But this is base pattern stuff.  The windows of wintry opportunity in the E U.S. from a tropical forcing standpoint should be when weak MJO waviness rolls atop the current base state and into the 7-8-1-2 zones in the late Dec-Mar timeframe (more favorable for 7-8-1-2 then).  7-8-1-2 is always favored in the E U.S., but moreso during El Nino.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

 We didn’t have to wait long at all for the next cyclonicwx.com OISST update as it came out on time this time. So, like the other datasets and the other OISST, the 3.4 anomaly warmed significantly since yesterday (from +1.812 to +1.890) though it is again 0.08 cooler than the +1.97 WCS OISST 3.4 anomaly:

 

 

[GaWx]

 Check this out: cyclonicwx’s OISST based Nino 1+2 anomaly cooled substantially and is now down to only +1.852. As just posted, Nino 3.4 just rose to +1.890. Thus, for the first time this El Niño, the Nino 3.4 anomaly is warmer than that for Nino 1+2 (though Nino 3 is still warmer at +2.019). This no longer looks like a pure EP Nino to me as it is more like an EP-CP mix/basin wide Nino:

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Check this out: cyclonicwx’s OISST based Nino 1+2 anomaly cooled substantially and is now down to only +1.852. As just posted, Nino 3.4 just rose to +1.890. Thus, for the first time this El Niño, the Nino 3.4 anomaly is warmer than that for Nino 1+2 (though Nino 3 is still warmer at +2.019). This no longer looks like a pure EP Nino to me as it is more like an EP-CP mix/basin wide Nino:

EP-CP mix/basin wide? Wha  How granular do we wanna get here? Lol

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

EP-CP mix/basin wide? Wha  How granular do we wanna get here? Lol

I think “EP-CP mix” and “basin wide” refer to essentially the same thing. I like to call it EP-CP mix because EP and CP are the two main types of El Niño and this is looking like a cross between them. Some prefer to call it basin-wide. I’m just trying to communicate my thoughts as clearly as possible.

[GaWx]

 More can kicking regarding the timing on when the SPV gets weaker than normal on the Euro Weeklies. Back on Nov 1st, they had this occur at the start of Dec or ~30 days out:

 Today’s run delays it the most yet as it waits til Dec 20th, which is still 30+ days out:

 

When will the can kicking stop? Is this just a mirage or is it real? Do the Euro Weeklies have a bias toward weakening the SPV too much in Dec?

[GaWx]

Whereas the Euro Weeklies have a strong SPV in late Nov as just posted, the GEFS has a strong -AO for then (similar to late Nov of 2022 and 2021). Interesting:

[GaWx]

 Last but not least, the PNA. Although it has been weakly negative so far this month, it is now rising and much of the rest of the month looks like a weak to moderate PNA on the GEFS. That could very well bring the full month PNA to above +0.25, which would mean a legit +PNA. That would make it +PNA in all 6 months of June-Nov. The link below has the monthlies. The only other year since 1950 with that (+0.25+ in all 6 months) was 2021.
 

 Barely missing that was 2009, which had one month dip to just below the +0.25 with a +0.21 in November. So, fwiw, 2023 is mirroring 2009 very closely PNAwise. 2023 has also been fairly similar to 2009’s NAO and AO.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 More can kicking regarding the timing on when the SPV gets weaker than normal on the Euro Weeklies. Back on Nov 1st, they had this occur at the start of Dec or ~30 days out:

 Today’s run delays it the most yet as it waits til Dec 20th, which is still 30+ days out:

 

When will the can kicking stop? Is this just a mirage or is it real? Do the Euro Weeklies have a bias toward weakening the SPV too much in Dec?

 

Late DEC, early JAN would line up with expectation. 

Often models see something in the future but jump on it too soon. 

With that said I wouldn't trust it either way past 10 days.

[bluewave]

Very warm Niña-like fall temperature pattern across North America like the last two years with not much cold air to be found.
 

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 More can kicking regarding the timing on when the SPV gets weaker than normal on the Euro Weeklies. Back on Nov 1st, they had this occur at the start of Dec or ~30 days out:

 Today’s run delays it the most yet as it waits til Dec 20th, which is still 30+ days out:

 

When will the can kicking stop? Is this just a mirage or is it real? Do the Euro Weeklies have a bias toward weakening the SPV too much in Dec?

We need some strong activity in the troposphere to show up before we really start to see changes in the SPV, meaning we need to see some wave producing systems to induce a weakening response. Large deep low pressure systems or some large scale blocking patterns to set up should do the trick. Again the typical timeframe to look anyway is about mid December to mid January to see any discernable activity, before that tends to be really rare situations. You can see a drastic shift occur when models finally start picking up on key signs, it can happen in like a week, although I would rather prefer the winter to already produce before an SSW as they do not always guarantee anything for us.

[so_whats_happening]

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data.

[snowman19]

Following the Nino script….here comes the raging STJ

[snowman19]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data.

The warm pool is now continuing to push east of the dateline, WPAC cooling. I have no doubt this goes super ONI probably not by much, my guesstimate stands….(+2.1C - +2.3C Nino 3.4).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also definitely some interesting moves taking place in the TAO data

That’s preventing Nino 3.4 from going super on ONI with warmth too far in the east and near the Dateline. So it leaves the subsurface under 3.4 cooler than usual for an El Niño. 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The warm pool is now continuing to push east of the dateline, WPAC cooling. I have no doubt this goes super ONI probably not by much, my guesstimate stands….(+2.1C - +2.3C Nino 3.4).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They're just hyping it and keeping their fingers crossed they can get 1 month above +2C and claim victory since 1 trimonthly is nearly a mathematical impossibility at this point.

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They're just hyping it and keeping their fingers crossed they can get 1 month above +2C and claim victory since 1 trimonthly is nearly a mathematical impossibility at this point.

and you need multiple trimonthlies for a super Nino… really for any category of event

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They're just hyping it and keeping their fingers crossed they can get 1 month above +2C and claim victory since 1 trimonthly is nearly a mathematical impossibility at this point.

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are a stone’s throw away from +2C right now (+1.97C). My guess is within the next week we are over that on the dailies

And then it has to sustain for 3 full months without falling to even get minimal Super Nino on ONI…that doesn’t seem realistic. You’d basically have to sustain >2.0C well into February unless you can get a single monthly reading really high (say something like 2.3C or so). I don’t really see a path to how that happens. 
 

I’ll never rule it out completely since ENSO is a very humbling thing to predict…but I’d probably want big odds to bet on it.