El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

Nino 4 warming and 1+2 cooling is moving this closer to a basin-wide look

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

It’s nice to have it updated. 1+2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time at +2.0. Region 4 is scorching again at +1.49. Region 4 being that warm probably isn’t good news for most on the board if the +IOD continues to weaken as I assume that would start to favor some unfavorable MJO phases.

 If Region 4 were to get too warm in relation to 3.4, I’d be thinking that would possibly invite more MJO phase 6, which on average has been warm in winter. The best bet from what I understand for a cool to cold E US were to be if Nino 3.4 were to be the warmest region anomalywise. As of 11/16, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 both are ~+2.0 while Nino 3.4 is +1.8 and Nino 4 is +1.5 as you said. So, 3.4 is just about as warm as 1+2 and 3. I’d like to see Nino 3.4 keep its +1.8 or even warm some more into the winter.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nino 4 warming and 1+2 cooling is moving this closer to a basin-wide look

 

i don’t know how some are seeing that massive bullseye of warmth near the dateline and are calling this a canonical EP Nino

that is not typical, and it’s definitely helping lean the forcing west

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

Maybe he just identifies as a Meteorologist. Sure beginning to look that way. 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don’t know how some are seeing that massive bullseye of warmth near the dateline and are calling this a canonical EP Nino

that is not typical, and it’s definitely helping lean the forcing west

With 3.4 now at +1.8, 3 at +2.0, and 2+1 at +2.0, this is nowhere near a pure EP Nino. The gradient is minimal. 1982 and 1997 had one or both of 2+1 and 3 0.5 to 1.0 warmer than 3.4 well into winter. OTOH, 2015 had 3.4 and 3 neck and neck with 1+2 quite a bit cooler. So, that also wasn’t pure EP. Yet, that was a mild winter. Perhaps that’s because 3.4 and 3 were well into super territory.

[raindancewx]

Nice to see more rain and snow coming for me. Driest 12-month period for any time frame, i.e. Nov-Oct, Jan-Dec, May-Apr, etc back to 1892 is around 3.5-4.0 inches here. We were flirting with those record dry periods in the absence of rain in July. Starting to reverse now. It's almost like the subtropical jet is responding to an El Nino or something.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 4 warming and 1+2 cooling is moving this closer to a basin-wide look

 

This shouldn't be surprising. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

I have been ignoring Webber and Roundy since it became apparent to me that they weren't interested in anything other than perpetuating their own agendas....probably about August or so. They both look irresponsible,  obstinate and silly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it’s becoming pretty obvious the Super Nino calls are going to be wrong. How that translates to winter still remains to be seen.

The winter could still suck across much of the east. We’ve had low-end moderate El Niños (like 1994-95) that are completely blowtorches. 
 

But I don’t see how this Nino goes anything remotely similar to the 1982-83s, 1997-98s, or 2015-16s from a strength perspective. 

I don't know if you have read my work yet, but I would be utterly stunned if this went the way of 1994-1995 near the pole. Not happening. Pacific, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need a couple more tenths of warming and then have it sustain for 3 months to get a trimonthly reading over 2.0C....that's extremely unlikely at this point. My guess is the peak trimonthly value comes in somewhere around 1.7 or 1.8

Yea, I've been at 1.7to1.9 since early last summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

This current westerly wind burst looks legit and I believe it will lead to warming (subsurface and surface).  It may be a good thing though to kick us out of the low AAM state and more into El Nino / +AAM....and agree, unless we see more follow-up WWBs like this one, I don't see how this one event is going to re-configure everything....i.e. flip the base state / low frequency VP signal into a hardcore and east-based situation like the super ninos you mentioned (that's what appears to be forecasted by Webb and Roundy).  In terms of the winter overall, I wish the strat PV wasn't starting out on the strong side like it is...would prefer it to be more neutral or weak (looks like it is going to strengthen again after this stretching event around T-Day).  But outside of that, I think the parameters for winter look good overall IMO

The nudge east in the warmest water is a good thing...less Maritime influence. ONI peak should be OND.

[Daniel Boone]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been ignoring Webber and Roundy since it became apparent to me that they weren't interested in anything other than perpetuating their own agendas....probably about August or so. They both look irresponsible,  obstinate and silly. 

For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Nice to see more rain and snow coming for me. Driest 12-month period for any time frame, i.e. Nov-Oct, Jan-Dec, May-Apr, etc back to 1892 is around 3.5-4.0 inches here. We were flirting with those record dry periods in the absence of rain in July. Starting to reverse now. It's almost like the subtropical jet is responding to an El Nino or something.

Severe Drought in this neck of the woods. Looks to finally start getting chipped away. 

[stadiumwave]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

 

 

 

 

 

But we've been hearing this since September by Paul, Eric, posters here...etc.

I'm not saying we will not warm but at some point everyone has to admit that what they thought would occur in Oct & early NOV has not. Instead, they just keep moving the needle. So, is it not possible their future predictions may not transpire to their hype? It's plausible to consider. 

Can you not objectively say that? They can't. 

[stadiumwave]

29 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

For all we know, they may very well be posters on here. I have a couple Suspects. I'm sure Webber at least reads the boards. As far as Rounder Roundy, not sure. 

 

I'm pretty sure Eric is. @snowman19 knows Eric I think. If I remember correctly from the AccuWeather days. Eric used to post quiet a bit at 33andrain as well.

 

I'm pretty sure Paul could care less about weather forums.

[stadiumwave]

[bluewave]

Heavy rains return to Australia as the IOD rapidly fades and SSTs rebound near the Maritime Continent. This is why the longer range guidance is showing more MJO activity in that region. The 30C warm pool north of Australia is almost as big as near the Dateline. So we’ll have to watch for a forcing back and forth between those regions. 

 

[stadiumwave]

 

[George001]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But we've been hearing this since September by Paul, Eric, posters here...etc.

I'm not saying we will not warm but at some point everyone has to admit that what they thought would occur in Oct & early NOV has not. Instead, they just keep moving the needle. So, is it not possible their future predictions may not transpire to their hype? It's plausible to consider. 

Can you not objectively say that? They can't. 

Agree. I was on the super nino train, but the data no longer supports that. Things change

[stadiumwave]

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different. 

DT pointed this out to Webber and his explanation was that that only speaks to summer and fall, not winter. DT said fair point and I referenced @griteater's research that it doesn't seem to chance much from Fall to winter.

Only example I found that shifted much was 2006...and it went WEST. I have yet to find any example where modest, Modoki like forcing went east and exploded.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

Agree. I was on the super nino train, but the data no longer supports that. Things change

Welcome aboard.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But we've been hearing this since September by Paul, Eric, posters here...etc.

I'm not saying we will not warm but at some point everyone has to admit that what they thought would occur in Oct & early NOV has not. Instead, they just keep moving the needle. So, is it not possible their future predictions may not transpire to their hype? It's plausible to consider. 

Can you not objectively say that? They can't. 

Imagine what we will hear from that same group if the colder flip keeps getting pushed back in January....

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

And the response in 3.4 from 10/16 to 11/16 has been to rise only .1C. So now what? He doesn't say.

[snowman19]

Right on time, here it comes:

[snowman19]

Imagine what we will hear from that same group if the colder flip keeps getting pushed back in January....

You won’t hear that from me, I fully expect the bottom to drop out in February. So far, this Nino is following the strong El Niño/+IOD “script” to a tee….I expect mid-late December to go up substantially, probably a drop early January then the mid-late January thaw, February drop then rise again for early-mid March 

@griteater My forecast stands….its going super

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Good thread. I'm not sure how this can be written off. Get as creative as you want...this is different. 

It is a good tweet showing the extreme contrast. But Noll’s maps are off with the drawing of the Nino 3.4 region. He has 3.4 from 120W to 170E instead of 120-170W. So, his 3.4 is too long. Thus, that 2023 western green area is hardly in 3.4 as it is almost all west of there. I’d like to see more rising air move into 3.4 the next few months. That would seemingly favor MJO phases 8 and 1 more than what this 2023 map suggests. His map has rising air mainly in the W portion of Nino 4, the E portion of Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 of the Nino regions and thus leaves 3.4 out. Other opinions?