El Nino 2023-2024

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 on UKMO OSTIA as of 11-15 is +1.56.  That's the lowest value since Oct 12

Every area is under +2C and dropping per link below, except for 4 which is rising slightly. Good place to be at this point imho.

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

[Terpeast]

Anyone have a clue why OISST hasn’t updated on cyclonicwx?

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Anyone have a clue why OISST hasn’t updated on cyclonicwx?

Don't know, but it does say below the SSTA map:

"These graphics are made with data from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) & Coral Reef Watch datasets."

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

[snowman19]

Definitely a nice WWB event though. The first almost full weakening of the trades we have seen thus far. TAO update the cooling in the WPAC continues look at the bite taken out of the 30C region around 160-170E. This will be the last I keep October in the mix since we are halfway through November.

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works:

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, snowman19 said:

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

seems like it's cooling the EP and warming the WP to me

[snowman19]

As of yesterday on WCS the region 3.4 OISST warmed to +1.88C, warmed +0.2 in the last week. This WWB event according to Paul is massive and the DWKW is record breaking. There is also very substantial warming of the WPAC. The trade winds look not only to die but a trade wind reversal appears to be in the works:

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[roardog]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 on UKMO OSTIA as of 11-15 is +1.56.  That's the lowest value since Oct 12

Something is still not adding up here. Coral Reef Watch is also down to +1.5 and falling as of yesterday. Throughout the entire year, Coral Reef Watch has been running warmer than OISST. Now we are supposed to believe it’s suddenly running .30-.35 cooler? That doesn’t make much sense to me. 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, roardog said:

Something is still not adding up here. Coral Reef Watch is also down to +1.5 and falling as of yesterday. Throughout the entire year, Coral Reef Watch has been running warmer than OISST. Now we are supposed to believe it’s suddenly running .30-.35 cooler? That doesn’t make much sense to me. 

The WCS 3.4 data is matching up perfectly with the NWS CPC data. It was also +1.8C on the Monday update. That is definitely the official OISST measurement, the CPC isn’t going to publish bogus info

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Every area is under +2C and dropping per link below, except for 4 which is rising slightly. Good place to be at this point imho.

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst.php

 

Just wait until that next WWB! It'll hit 3.0 in all regions except 4. 

[roardog]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Just wait until that next WWB! It'll hit 3.0 in all regions except 4. 

We should start a betting thread on what date the flip will occur to give up on Nino and start talking about the Super Nina and record breaking SE ridge for next winter. lol

[mitchnick]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

The boy who cried wolf is seriously on the doorsteps now. Seems like the last shot looking at projected trades.

[stadiumwave]

There is going to be more warming just not sure it's enough or in time to make a massive difference. 

[Terpeast]

I’m calling it. This nino has already peaked. 

It’s time to start tracking h5 and individual waves!

[snowman19]

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

There is going to be more warming just not sure it's enough or in time to make a massive difference. 

We need a couple more tenths of warming and then have it sustain for 3 months to get a trimonthly reading over 2.0C....that's extremely unlikely at this point. My guess is the peak trimonthly value comes in somewhere around 1.7 or 1.8

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

WCS 11/14/23 updates:

-Nino 3.4 OISST warmed from +1.85 to +1.88, which is barely warmer than Nov 1st and thus is the warmest so far this Nino

-The PDO dropped from -1.19 to -1.27. It has dropped a pretty good bit over the last few days from when it was in the -0.90s.

WCS 11/15 updates:

-Nino 3.4 OISST barely warmed from +1.88 24 hours earlier to +1.89, which is its warmest so far this Nino. Although it has warmed a decent amount over the 8 days, this slowdown may mean it is topping at least for now.

-The PDO rose slightly from -1.27 to -1.25.

-I’m sticking with a +1.7 to +1.9 ONI peak for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’m calling it. This nino has already peaked. 

It’s time to start tracking h5 and individual waves!

And there it is 

...about a month ago I wrote, 'I wonder when the posts start arriving about how this El Nino had already peaked'    congratulations!  you came in first place. 

We'll see, but it seems the Aug/September window was at minimum a local peak; we'll see if becomes the peak.

 

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And there it is 

...about a month ago I wrote, 'I wonder when the posts start arriving about how this El Nino had already peaked'    congratulations!  you came in first place. 

We'll see, but it seems the Aug/September window was at minimum a local peak; we'll see if becomes the peak.

 

I don’t see how Aug/Sep can end up THE peak for both Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. They’ve both been warmer in Nov than Aug/Sep. Nino 3.4 per OISST just hit a new daily high of +1.89 on Nov 15th:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And there it is 

...about a month ago I wrote, 'I wonder when the posts start arriving about how this El Nino had already peaked'    congratulations!  you came in first place. 

We'll see, but it seems the Aug/September window was at minimum a local peak; we'll see if becomes the peak.

 

Actually, I’m thinking the peak was Oct-Nov. Either SON or OND on the trimonthlies.

^ @GaWx beat me to it. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

[griteater]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why would the Aleutian low be placed farther east than even the canonical super events when 

1) this likely won’t have the same magnitude of strength even with raw ONI

2) forcing has been well west, and will continue to stay west for the foreseeable future

he has lost his damn mind. he is basically just saying shit at this point

The varying opinions this year are really wild with respect to El Niño peak / base forcing location / how it impacts the pattern…and especially with how late in the game we are now. Folks are doubling down on their stance too

[snowman19]

The varying opinions this year are really wild with respect to El Niño peak / base forcing location / how it impacts the pattern…and especially with how late in the game we are now. Folks are doubling down on their stance too

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Actually, I’m thinking the peak was Oct-Nov. Either SON or OND on the trimonthlies.

^ @GaWx beat me to it. 

yeah, I wasn't trying for gospel on that 'when' aspect there - more so that it was aft of now and moving forward.  If I cared enough I would have looked closer at the data.  I just tend to refer to the coarse SST anomaly product at CPC, which if looping the 3 months, it seemed per glance like the warm "max" was in early September. Upon another look ... it seems the Nino 3 and 1/2 were warmest in Sept ( according to that product), and since perhaps switched with 4 and 3.4

Obviously there's MEI's and ONI's and HIV's and HPV' and all other kinds of illnesses associated with this pepperRONI pizza index

 

[ORH_wxman]

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

The varying opinions this year are really wild with respect to El Niño peak / base forcing location / how it impacts the pattern…and especially with how late in the game we are now. Folks are doubling down on their stance too

I think it’s becoming pretty obvious the Super Nino calls are going to be wrong. How that translates to winter still remains to be seen.

The winter could still suck across much of the east. We’ve had low-end moderate El Niños (like 1994-95) that are completely blowtorches. 
 

But I don’t see how this Nino goes anything remotely similar to the 1982-83s, 1997-98s, or 2015-16s from a strength perspective. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The warm pool has moved east of the dateline now. I’m at a loss for words that people actually think this Nino already peaked and is weakening, you have a massive WWB and DWKW continuing. Someone/someones are going to botch this Nino forecast very, very badly. The camps on this are worlds and I mean worlds apart

 

 

 

 

Worlds apart? From what I've seen it's between strong between +1.6-1.9 vs. 2-2.3. 

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, griteater said:

The varying opinions this year are really wild with respect to El Niño peak / base forcing location / how it impacts the pattern…and especially with how late in the game we are now. Folks are doubling down on their stance too

Varying opinions make for interesting and active forecast discussions. This topic would have nowhere near as many posts as it has had without significant differences of opinion. I do not look forward to the day when seasonal forecasts from models become much more accurate/they all predict the same thing. If that is to ever occur, that would make forecast discussion topics pretty boring.

[griteater]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it’s becoming pretty obvious the Super Nino calls are going to be wrong. How that translates to winter still remains to be seen.

The winter could still suck across much of the east. We’ve had low-end moderate El Niños (like 1994-95) that are completely blowtorches. 
 

But I don’t see how this Nino goes anything remotely similar to the 1982-83s, 1997-98s, or 2015-16s from a strength perspective. 

This current westerly wind burst looks legit and I believe it will lead to warming (subsurface and surface).  It may be a good thing though to kick us out of the low AAM state and more into El Nino / +AAM....and agree, unless we see more follow-up WWBs like this one, I don't see how this one event is going to re-configure everything....i.e. flip the base state / low frequency VP signal into a hardcore and east-based situation like the super ninos you mentioned (that's what appears to be forecasted by Webb and Roundy).  In terms of the winter overall, I wish the strat PV wasn't starting out on the strong side like it is...would prefer it to be more neutral or weak (looks like it is going to strengthen again after this stretching event around T-Day).  But outside of that, I think the parameters for winter look good overall IMO

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

WCS 11/15 updates:

-Nino 3.4 OISST barely warmed from +1.88 24 hours earlier to +1.89, which is its warmest so far this Nino. Although it has warmed a decent amount over the 8 days, this slowdown may mean it is topping at least for now.

-The PDO rose slightly from -1.27 to -1.25.

-I’m sticking with a +1.7 to +1.9 ONI peak for now.

 For the first time in 8 days, OISST updated at cyclonicwx. On the prior update, it was at +1.64 as of Nov 8th, which turned out to be a short term low just like the WCS short term low of Nov 7th. Its latest (Nov 16th) is a little cooler than WCS’ latest with +1.81 vs +1.89. Its high was +1.83, which was set yesterday. So, like on WCS, it warmed ~0.2C during that week.

 Looking back at the last few months in 3.4, WCS has tended to be very slightly warmer (~0.05 on average) than cyclonicwx although the latest is .08 warmer.

 

[roardog]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 For the first time in 8 days, OISST updated at cyclonicwx. On the prior update, it was at +1.64 as of Nov 8th, which turned out to be a short term low just like the WCS short term low of Nov 7th. Its latest (Nov 16th) is a little cooler than WCS’ latest with +1.81 vs +1.89. Its high was +1.83, which was set yesterday.

 Looking back at the last few months in 3.4, WCS has tended to be very slightly warmer (~0.05 on average) than cyclonicwx although the latest is .08 warmer.

 

It’s nice to have it updated. 1+2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time at +2.0. Region 4 is scorching again at +1.49. Region 4 being that warm probably isn’t good news for most on the board if the +IOD continues to weaken as I assume that would start to favor some unfavorable MJO phases.

[griteater]

14 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’s nice to have it updated. 1+2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time at +2.0. Region 4 is scorching again at +1.49. Region 4 being that warm probably isn’t good news for most on the board if the +IOD continues to weaken as I assume that would start to favor some unfavorable MJO phases.

Nino 4 warming should be regarded as a good thing for the East.  The bad would be if substantial SST warming occurs in the Maritime Continent (that is what could aid in more MJO 3-4-5, though a stout Nino should overwhelm it) and/or the base -VP uplift moves east into the E Pac.