El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

really nice to see this forcing pattern showing up on extended ensembles for the back half of December... this is straight 7-8-1-2, and these phases play well once into Jan

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is what I like about Cohen....he always admit when he is wrong and is very approachable...you DM that guy and he responds as soon as he sees it. Some these guys act so condescending and their shit stinks as badly as everyone else's.

no, this Nino is obviously very similar to 1997 and we're just weenies for believing otherwise

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A few mets have opined that the -PDO/-PMM have muddied the MEI and we are also coming off a multi year La Niña cycle. We haven’t seen an event develop like this in a very long time, the MEI is biased towards more present events. I believe Paul mentioned that this Nino is similar to one we had back in the late 1800’s

I think that is true, but the ONI has also clearly run astray due to the immense warmth around the globe....this is why I think the moderate intensity implied by the RONI is the most reasonable compromise. Its not weak, but I wouldn't call it strong, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, this Nino is obviously very similar to 1997 and we're just weenies for believing otherwise

There were some guys I was going toe-to-toe with all summer and fall that were hell bent on a mega el Nino....they have all capitulated at this point. I honestly think Webber and Roundy are the only two going down with the ship.

[snowman19]

With the rapidly fading +IOD, it will be important how quickly we get a MJO 4-6 forcing rebound in December. The current GEFS and EPS have some forcing returning to the Maritime Continent in early December. We definitely want to see that muted or uncoupled.


 

From the latest BOM update:

“The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index is +1.55 °C for the week ending 5 November 2023. The weekly IOD index values for this event have been the second-highest since records for the Bureau SST dataset began in 2001, with the highest values occurring in the strong positive IOD event of 2019.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 5 November show warmer than average waters in much of the western half of the tropical Indian Ocean, as well as south of 15°S. Conversely, the eastern pole of the IOD was cooler than average, with a notable area of cooler waters extending off the coast of Java. This shows a clear gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean that is typical of a positive IOD. Compared to last fortnight, the extent of the cooling has reduced but the strength of the cooling close to the Java coastline has increased.
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the positive IOD event is likely to continue into December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.”

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

[stadiumwave]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the rapidly fading +IOD, it will be important how quickly we get a MJO 4-6 forcing rebound in December. The current GEFS and EPS have some forcing returning to the Maritime Continent in early December. We definitely want to see that muted or uncoupled.

 

 

Paul says those phases will be short lived.

 

[stadiumwave]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A few mets have opined that the -PDO/-PMM (extremely unusual) have muddied the MEI and we are also coming off a multi year La Niña cycle. We haven’t seen an event develop like this in a very long time, the MEI is biased towards more present events. I believe Paul mentioned that this Nino is similar to one we had back in the late 1800’s

 

Yes, but my point is he said the westerly wind event would cause the MEI to climb. It did not & he knew all about the problems with MEI when he tweeted it. 

I see 2 things going on. Paul & several others are correctly pointing out this El Nino is stronger than the indexes would indicate but at the same time, almost all that they keep pointing to that will cause this to be reflected keeps failing to transpire. And this event continues to behave in ways they did not expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Yes, but my point is he said the westerly wind event would cause the MEI to climb. It did not & he knew all about the problems with MEI when he tweeted it. 

I see 2 things going on. Paul & several others are correctly pointing out this El Nino is stronger than the indexes would indicate but at the same time, almost all that they keep pointing to that will cause this to be reflected keeps failing to transpire. And this event continues to behave in ways they did not expect.

Indexes? Its stronger than the MEI would indicate...that's it.

[brooklynwx99]

this forcing configuration is quite similar to the more favorable years and less so compared to the canonical super Nino years. more forcing in the western IO and closer to the dateline. again, we just aren't seeing the main VP in the same spots as we were for the torchy super Nino years

[stadiumwave]

JAMSTEC Updated. Remember,no 500mb maps. Looks warm & dry

 

[griteater]

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really nice to see this forcing pattern showing up on extended ensembles for the back half of December... this is straight 7-8-1-2, and these phases play well once into Jan

It would probably do us some good to make a subseasonal run thru 3-4-5 in late Nov into early Dec as that may get the Urals ridging activated with downstream low over NE Siberia / Bering Sea - good for Strat PV weakening (end of last GEFS run shows the configuration - 2nd image below).  Then follow that up with 8-1-2 Nino forcing later in Dec.  Would be a nice 1-2 punch.

[snowman19]

JAMSTEC Updated. Remember,no 500mb maps. Looks warm & dry
 

Interesting , shows an area of +3C anomalies in regions 3.4 and 3….

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting , shows an area of +3C anomalies in regions 3.4 and 3….

And that's why it is warm with its forecast and will, therefore, be wrong with its eastern US forecast.

[stadiumwave]

IRI Updated

OCT Updated to compare

Very similar but with less warmth in south central Canada. Just a small shade warmer in east CONUS. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting , shows an area of +3C anomalies in regions 3.4 and 3….

JAMSTEC actually had a bit larger area of +3+ in the Oct run (see below). It looks to my eyeballs like the implied Nino 3.4 DJF forecast is about the same as what the Oct run had. Oct was at +2.05 per this:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Nino 3.4 is probably again only slightly warmer than +2.0 on this like it was on the Oct run although I think that’s going to verify too warm. A very low +2.0s Nino 3.4 can easily have a small area near +3.0 along the equator since it is the warmest area and negates the mainly W portion that is under +2.0.

Oct forecast: +2.05 in Nino 3.4

Nov forecast: likely similar to the +2.05 of Oct in 3.4

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

IRI Updated

OCT Updated to compare

Very similar but with less warmth in south central Canada. Just a small shade warmer in east CONUS. 

Noise.

[GaWx]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:57 AM, GaWx said:

Latest WCS as of 11/13/23 about steady vs yesterday for both Nino 3.4 (at +1.85) and PDO (at -1.19).

WCS 11/14/23 updates:

-Nino 3.4 OISST warmed from +1.85 to +1.88, which is barely warmer than Nov 1st and thus is the warmest so far this Nino

-The PDO dropped from -1.19 to -1.27. It has dropped a pretty good bit over the last few days from when it was in the -0.90s.

[George001]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is like calling the Blizzard of '78 an analog every time it snows.

That’s a great way to set yourself up to be disappointed. I learned that the hard way….

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

WCS 11/14/23 updates:

-Nino 3.4 OISST warmed from +1.85 to +1.88, which is barely warmer than Nov 1st and thus is the warmest so far this Nino

-The PDO dropped from -1.19 to -1.27. It has dropped a pretty good bit over the last few days from when it was in the -0.90s.

So its warmed .30 degrees in two weeks....but I'm sure the next KW will do the trick.

[GaWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So its warmed .30 degrees in two weeks....but I'm sure the next KW will do the trick.

It actually warmed only ~0.01C  in 2 weeks from ~+1.87C on 11/1 to +1.88C in today’s update. But it has warmed ~0.2C during the last week.

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

From the latest BOM update:

“The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index is +1.55 °C for the week ending 5 November 2023. The weekly IOD index values for this event have been the second-highest since records for the Bureau SST dataset began in 2001, with the highest values occurring in the strong positive IOD event of 2019.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the week ending 5 November show warmer than average waters in much of the western half of the tropical Indian Ocean, as well as south of 15°S. Conversely, the eastern pole of the IOD was cooler than average, with a notable area of cooler waters extending off the coast of Java. This shows a clear gradient between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean that is typical of a positive IOD. Compared to last fortnight, the extent of the cooling has reduced but the strength of the cooling close to the Java coastline has increased.
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the positive IOD event is likely to continue into December. A positive IOD typically leads to reduced spring rainfall for central and south-east Australia. When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect is typically stronger and more widespread across Australia.”

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean

We have seen convection return to the Maritime Continent in the past following strong IODs once the IOD dropped to moderate +1 to +1.5 range. The WPAC warm pool is an enormous heat engine. The area of cooling near Java usually bounces back pretty quickly once the IOD drops below +1. 

[bkviking]

This is best thread on this forum IMHO- for a while. Even see Isotherm appears to be following time to time. Would love for him to come back and add. But I hope others aren’t missing this discussion bc it’s main forum and not regional and the discussion here rocks although it’s dedicated to ENSO only … 

[griteater]

12 minutes ago, bkviking said:

This is best thread on this forum IMHO- for a while. Even see Isotherm appears to be following time to time. Would love for him to come back and add. But I hope others aren’t missing this discussion bc it’s main forum and not regional and the discussion here rocks although it’s dedicated to ENSO only … 

Yes it’s been a good thread this year.  Good info shared. Some learning. Some fun

[griteater]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

For my stupid moment of the day, can someone share how to get to these VP maps on the GEFS extended which goes out to Day 35?

I can get to similar GEFS Extended maps on WxBell, but I like these better....and I see the regular GEFS on TT (out to Day 16), but not GEFS Extended (out to Day 35)

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, griteater said:

For my stupid moment of the day, can someone share how to get to these VP maps on the GEFS extended which goes out to Day 35?

I can get to similar GEFS Extended maps on WxBell, but I like these better....and I see the regular GEFS on TT (out to Day 16), but not GEFS Extended (out to Day 35)

Only available on 00z runs, but otherwise same link as the regular GEFS. They take a while to update too (00z 11/15 run still not past 384h)

[raindancewx]

Bering Sea Rule implies a major system pulling through the Southwest US in the Dec 5-9 time frame. Broadly consistent with my analogs. Almost all of the six analogs had a snow event between Dec 8-12 for the SW. Major lows south of Kamchatka tend to pass over New Mexico in 17-21 days.

Unweighted analog blend from me from October has represented November fairly well, with more heat coming in the short term.

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, griteater said:

It would probably do us some good to make a subseasonal run thru 3-4-5 in late Nov into early Dec as that may get the Urals ridging activated with downstream low over NE Siberia / Bering Sea - good for Strat PV weakening (end of last GEFS run shows the configuration - 2nd image below).  Then follow that up with 8-1-2 Nino forcing later in Dec.  Would be a nice 1-2 punch.

Yep a nice pass through 3-8 is not all that horrible, short term can be rough long term could be a lot of fun. Good read on the MJO to SSW precursor as well as blocking patterns before SSW.

 

Connection of SSW and MJO.pdf Blocking Precursors to SSW.pdf

[so_whats_happening]

Definitely a nice WWB event though. The first almost full weakening of the trades we have seen thus far. TAO update the cooling in the WPAC continues look at the bite taken out of the 30C region around 160-170E. This will be the last I keep October in the mix since we are halfway through November.

[stadiumwave]

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 on UKMO OSTIA as of 11-15 is +1.56.  That's the lowest value since Oct 12