El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@griteaterLove your stuff, man...you have to be my #1 source for outlook graphics lol

Thanks man. I use Snagit for the maps 

[griteater]

48 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I do also enjoy your graphics what site do you use to for those DJFM maps?

I also do the exact same on a spread sheet ever since college that has been my go to setup. 

Thank you. Yeah Snagit and my spreadsheet is a bit out of control. Waiting for it to just freeze up and die over at any moment 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

My call was +NAO in Dec and -NAO averaged over Jan-Mar. I’ll go with slightly negative for Jan-Mar

Thanks. Did you mean to say slightly negative for Dec-Mar?

[griteater]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Did you mean to say slightly negative for Dec-Mar?

Sorry yes. Let’s go -0.25  to -0.50 for Dec-Mar

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

These monthly averages haven’t verified very well in recent years. None of the seasonal or monthly forecasts last winter got the depth of the Western trough correct. They were just forecasting a vanilla La Niña pattern. Instead we got the 2nd warmest winter on record in the Northeast at close to +5. None of the models were showing that kind of warmth. I think the meteorological community on twitter oversells the value of these seasonal models when many times they are just another version of the fabled GFS 384 hr snowstorm.

I mean you aren't wrong, but I'd still maintain its a different problem. For the same reason that our struggle to predict the weather in 2 weeks is basically irrelevant to forecasting long term climate change. In one you are trying to nail down the exact state of the atmosphere and the other you are trying to forecast the average state of it and smooth out the noise. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Sorry yes. Let’s go -0.25  to -0.50 for Dec-Mar

A gutsy call since I assume you realize that even the low end would mean the strongest -NAO for D-M since 2012-3. I’d love for you to be right during these hard to come by -NAO winters. What a winter the E US could have with that!

 The only El Niño D-M since 1951-2 with a -NAO stronger than the top of your range  all had BN temps in most of the E US: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 2009-10.

 These are the El Niño D-M with an NAO within your range:

1958-9, 1965-6, 1977-8

 All 3 of these were also BN in much of the E US.

Corrected

[Terpeast]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A gutsy call since I assume you realize that even the low end would mean the strongest -NAO for D-M since 2012-3. I’d love for you to be right during these hard to come by -NAO winters. What a winter the E US could have with that!

 The only El Niño winters since 1951-2 with a -NAO stronger than the top of your range  all had BN temps in most of the E US: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 2009-10.

Corrected

Note most of those years listed above are el nino years. 

And this year we also have a neg QBO.

So as hard as it's been to have a sustained -NAO winter, maybe this is the year we finally get one.

 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Note most of those years listed above are el nino years. 

And this year we also have a neg QBO.

So as hard as it's been to have a sustained -NAO winter, maybe this is the year we finally get one.

 

 I was purposely just listing El Niño years in my 2nd paragraph and beyond. But despite my not expecting it, I also remain hopeful for a sustained -NAO. Anything and everything can occur this winter. El Niño with -QBO probably tilts the scale a little bit. As it is, I’m thinking good chance for a Feb -NAO, regardless.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…

Big difference in results with those 2 Winters too. February in particular. Feb. 2015 was spectacular. 

[griteater]

53 minutes ago, GaWx said:

A gutsy call since I assume you realize that even the low end would mean the strongest -NAO for D-M since 2012-3. I’d love for you to be right during these hard to come by -NAO winters. What a winter the E US could have with that!

 The only El Niño D-M since 1951-2 with a -NAO stronger than the top of your range  all had BN temps in most of the E US: 1957-8, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, and 2009-10.

 These are the El Niño D-M with an NAO within your range:

1958-9, 1965-6, 1977-8

 All 3 of these were also BN in much of the E US.

Corrected

No way -0.25 to -0.50 is considered gutsy, haha.  I'm good with going weakly negative for full winter (Dec-Mar).  I will say that there are discrepancies with NAO calculations (and indices in general).  The NAO numbers I like are the Hurrell Principal Component based numbers (can get it in the Data Access section here: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-pc-based).  That one is computed based on the full west-to-east Atlantic basin as opposed to just basing it on the difference in pressure anomalies between Iceland and Portugal.  Are your numbers from the NOAA CPC data - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table?  I'm not sure how they do their calculation, but those numbers are more tame.  For example, the NAO in Dec 2010 in the PC-based index was -3.56 vs. -1.85 in the NOAA CPC data

[griteater]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@griteaterLove your stuff, man...you have to be my #1 source for outlook graphics lol

Oh, you meant charts and things like that.....thanks 

[GaWx]

53 minutes ago, griteater said:

No way -0.25 to -0.50 is considered gutsy, haha.  I'm good with going weakly negative for full winter (Dec-Mar).  I will say that there are discrepancies with NAO calculations (and indices in general).  The NAO numbers I like are the Hurrell Principal Component based numbers (can get it in the Data Access section here: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-pc-based).  That one is computed based on the full west-to-east Atlantic basin as opposed to just basing it on the difference in pressure anomalies between Iceland and Portugal.  Are your numbers from the NOAA CPC data - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table?  I'm not sure how they do their calculation, but those numbers are more tame.  For example, the NAO in Dec 2010 in the PC-based index was -3.56 vs. -1.85 in the NOAA CPC data

Yeah, I use the CPC based on difference between Iceland and Azores SLP for it. They’ve done well for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…

Not to mentioned 91-92 had Pinatubo effect.

[mitchnick]

Nice shift west of anomalies underway.

[bluewave]

While OISST hasn’t updated in a while, CRW may have already peaked. This would fit the pattern of El Niños typically peaking by November. It would also mark another year since 2012 with El Niño forecasts showing a significant warm bias. It’s probably related to the models not being able to handle the destructive interference from the record WPAC warm pool and persistent -PDO. 
 

 

 

[griteater]

11-13 update for UKMO OSTIA is +1.57 for Nino 3.4

 

[snowman19]

While OISST hasn’t updated in a while, CRW may have already peaked. This would fit the pattern of El Niños typically peaking by November. It would also mark another year since 2012 with El Niño forecasts showing a significant warm bias. It’s probably related to the models not being able to handle the destructive interference from the record WPAC warm pool and persistent -PDO. 
 

 

 

The new CPC update has it at +1.8C and so does WCS (OISST). Given the ongoing WWB, the trades projected to die off, the DWKW and the SOI at over -30, it’s extremely unlikely this peaked already

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CPC update has it at +1.8C and so does WCS (OISST). Given the ongoing WWB, the trades projected to die off, the DWKW and the SOI at over -30, it’s extremely unlikely this peaked already

Maybe, but you have to admit this Niño has not progressed as so many expected. 

[stadiumwave]

[snowman19]

That OISST most recent update was centered on the week around the 8th before the recent drop. So that 1.8 reading is averaged out to include the warmer readings at the start of November.
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

The WCS daily update is still +1.8C as 11/13

[Terpeast]

When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. 

I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

This is an important point -

folks take these longer planetary indexes at face values - not trying to implicate anyone, per se, but just in the general chorus, this tends to take place. 

Taking not of the idiosyncrasies ... like a bombastically warm western Pac weighting the values one way or the other, may not directly teleconnect to what's going on with the atmospheric circulation mode over Dead Horse Canada.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

When we get the peak trimonthly average, we will likely see SON or maybe OND at 1.6. 

I’m calling this a moderate nino considering other competing factors. 

If we hold onto 1.8 for another week via cpc outlook or even bump to 1.9 the average should be just under 1.7 for the trimonthly after that is a big ? The lack of any continual WWB will definitely hurt chances of reaching that super status for a weekly value going forward.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

11-13 update for UKMO OSTIA is +1.57 for Nino 3.4

 

Happen to have the iod by chance?

[griteater]

This WWB looks to be the most impressive we’ve seen all year in terms of it staying strong and continuing east of the dateline.  So, I certainly think this will lead to some warming over the next month

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we hold onto 1.8 for another week via cpc outlook or even bump to 1.9 the average should be just under 1.7 for the trimonthly after that is a big ? The lack of any continual WWB will definitely hurt chances of reaching that super status for a weekly value going forward.

Yeah if that new wwb holds east of the dateline we MAY get to 1.7 trimonthly

[Typhoon Tip]

Does anyone have a source/free on the web that gives the weekly IOD... even bi-monthly?

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Happen to have the iod by chance?

The IOD peaked back in October.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml#bookmark=nino3.4

 

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

This WWB looks to be the most impressive we’ve seen all year in terms of it staying strong and continuing east of the dateline.  So, I certainly think this will lead to some warming over the next month

Unfortunately did not save an anomaly during the mid April to mid June timeframe so the best I can provide is total U wind.

[snowman19]

The IOD peaked back in October.
 
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml#bookmark=nino3.4