El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

UKMO OSTIA is +1.59 again today for Nino 3.4 (as of Nov12)

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMO OSTIA is +1.59 again today for Nino 3.4 (as of Nov12)

out to lunch, apparently

[snowman19]

out to lunch, apparently

Unfortunately, the official reading is +1.8C from the new CPC update less than an hour ago. We go by those numbers. Argue with them if you think it should be lower. :-)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[griteater]

It's shaping up to be a battle royale this winter between El Nino and the -PDO.  This is likely the biggest contrast between the 2 in recorded history.  December tends to be a weird month with weather patterns, but Jan-Feb will shed more light on which one wins out.

 

[griteater]

30-day change map shows warming in the Maritime Continent (ugh) and warming off Japan (ugh)

[40/70 Benchmark]

I Could see January going either way.....I also don't think December will be a disaster, but not great.

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

30-day change map shows warming in the Maritime Continent (ugh) and warming off Japan (ugh)

Good things I'm seeing is the cooling trend N of Hawaii + warming GOA and off W coast. Also cooling west of the dateline that might help shift forcing slightly to the east. Also an interesting Atlantic tripole-ish trend. 

It's a much better look than it was a month ago.

Also some warming off Japan isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Because if we want an Aleutian low, we want upstream ridging over Japan and thereabouts. We just don’t want an extreme marine heatwave mucking up the entire pac. 

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, griteater said:

30-day change map shows warming in the Maritime Continent (ugh) and warming off Japan (ugh)

At this point, we might want to root for the Super Nino to verify so we can actually have a Nino North Pacific….lol. 
 

Don’t think that’s happening though. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect a VOLATILE PNA that biases slightly + and a volatile polar domain that biases slightly negative....not wall-to-wall arctic. But I think all of this volatility will ensure that winter is not boring. You want teleconnections in flux to get big storms....not a -3SD PV queefing on your face all season.

Love this post.  Just cold enough is just fine.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

At this point, we might want to root for the Super Nino to verify so we can actually have a Nino North Pacific….lol. 
 

Don’t think that’s happening though. 

i’m pretty sure this is going to couple well in the N Pac. 500mb (which is generally driven by ENSO) drives SSTs, not the other way around 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m pretty sure this is going to couple well in the N Pac. 500mb (which is generally driven by ENSO) drives SSTs, not the other way around 

Agreed. Recent sst trends are a sign that the atmosphere driving them is shifting to a more nino-like pattern (I know some will disagree)

[so_whats_happening]

Latest TAO from Oct 15 to current. I will shortly be taking away October as the gifs are becoming long.

[so_whats_happening]

Ill also add in the more basin wide look from CPC up to the 9th since it seems to be updating fairly regularly again. In this one you can definitely see the cool pool expand a bit in the WPAC, on the other side of this ongoing WWB. 

[so_whats_happening]

Looking at hovmollers we do look to have a nice break in the trades coming up around 4/3.4 in the next week so this should allow the temps to pump up a bit but this only lasts for about 3-5 days before quickly returning to stronger trades as we  close out the month. The VP map I don't believe is something we wanna see where it retreats back to the maritime continent again.

The total winds show that the +IOD has probably already peaked and will continue to warm which is a little earlier than other typical IOD peaks but within the timeframe they normally peak so nothing too crazy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m pretty sure this is going to couple well in the N Pac. 500mb (which is generally driven by ENSO) drives SSTs, not the other way around 

Eh...to a point. However, the PDO can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with ENSO when they are not in sync. Its part of the overarching system that is keeping this event in check.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...to a point. However, the PDO can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with ENSO when they are not in sync. Its part of the overarching system that is keeping this event in check.

Check out the three super el Nino events....++PDO.

No coincidence...probably why 1972 was held in check, at least to a degree.

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...to a point. However, the PDO can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with ENSO when they are not in sync. Its part of the overarching system that is keeping this event in check.

 

Could be a perfect marriage if you think about it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

 

Could be a perfect marriage if you think about it. 

Yes, and I have....at very, very great length.

[WxUSAF]

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I'd say that's not a fair comparison. Monthly averages factoring in peak ENSO forcing are more likely to verify than snapshot forecasts 2-3 weeks out in many cases. But as others noted, 18/19 was much weaker and therefore you would assume the predictability would be lower too. 

These monthly averages haven’t verified very well in recent years. None of the seasonal or monthly forecasts last winter got the depth of the Western trough correct. They were just forecasting a vanilla La Niña pattern. Instead we got the 2nd warmest winter on record in the Northeast at close to +5. None of the models were showing that kind of warmth. I think the meteorological community on twitter oversells the value of these seasonal models when many times they are just another version of the fabled GFS 384 hr snowstorm.

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

Yes with the record waters temps over the summer and the slow fade of them across the Central and West Pacific north of 20 we still have a solid -PDO depiction even with that weakly positive look off the West coast. That weakly positive look should help with flexing of the western ridge with the El Nino state present versus constant troughing when in La Nina but we will have this battle back and forth so long as the warmth near Japan remains constant.

It is nice to see some pockets of cooler waters show up but we need it a bit more widespread to have an impact. Ultimately this could have flipped had we gotten a more robust WPAC tropical season like we typically see in an El Nino year. They would help generate these WWB patterns across the tropics then the models would have been right in there wild predictions early on. The more notable El Nino events all had total tropical activity in the 30+ storm range, I believe we are near 20 or so right now and all have developed relatively close to the Philippines region. 

[GaWx]

Latest WCS updates as of 11/12/23:

-Nino 3.4 cooled back from +1.87 to +1.82

-PDO had the biggest drop for a single day since mid Sept from -1.01 to (per Griteater’s post) -1.18

[griteater]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m mostly a novice at this, but seems the -PDO numerical index is mostly driven by the very warm water off Japan, right? The SST map on our side  of the dateline looks weakly +PDO to me with slight AN SSTs along the west coast and in the GoA. 

Along with the note from @so_whats_happening, here are the phase maps for both pos and neg PDO.

 

One way to analyze the use of the PDO for this winter would be to look at all El Nino winters that occurred during a negative PDO regime (i.e. a multi-year PDO regime, which is what it looks like we will remain in this winter unless a hard flip occurs) and eliminate the winters in which a rogue -PDO winter occurred within an otherwise +PDO regime.  Here is a chart of the -PDO regimes as indicated by the black line.

 

 

Here I have it in spreadsheet form as well.  Note that I didn't give "Neg PDO" regime designation to years that had a hard flip from Neg to Pos PDO in the Fall/Winter during a Neg PDO regime (e.g. 57-58, 69-70, 76,77) or to years that had a hard flip from Pos to Neg PDO in the Fall/Winter during a Pos PDO regime (e.g. 94-95, 04-05 - not shown below)

 

Using this logic, here are all El Ninos that occurred during a -PDO regime, and with the PDO not flipping hard to positive during the Fall/Winter.  Note the Central Pacific ridge / West Coast trough.

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed all weak and super El Ninos:

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed the 1952 winter due to it being in the descending phase of the solar cycle:

 

And here in the final one, I removed 68-69 and 09-10 which were extreme -AO/-NAO winters:

 

Here are all years above in spreadsheet form with various parameters:

 

Bottom line: Winters occuring during El Nino, -PDO Regime. -PDO, and Solar not in descending phase show a composite pattern of a ridge in the central Pac, trough along the west coast, and split flow across the CONUS underneath west-based -NAO.  Assuming the -NAO delivers (-QBO favors it as well), it would be a promising pattern in an enclosed area from the SW states to the S Plains, to the NE, and down to the SE states.  Also, after my "ugh" post earlier about the PDO, I am so back for winter based on this analysis.  LOLLOL.

[griteater]

^ Other good news is that if we go stock El Nino pattern (say in Jan-Feb) with Aleutian Low and West Coast ridge, that is a promising pattern as well in split flow.

-PDO / El Nino pattern with +NAO would be the killer for the eastern U.S. (for the most part)

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

^ Other good news is that if we go stock El Nino pattern (say in Jan-Feb) with Aleutian Low and West Coast ridge, that is a promising pattern as well in split flow.

-PDO / El Nino pattern with +NAO would be the killer for the eastern U.S. (for the most part)

 Have you made a specific forecast for either the DJFM or DJF NAO?

 I know that @40/70 Benchmarkis going with neutral for DJFM (+0.15 to -0.20), which I’d take in a heartbeat in this day and age of difficult to attain -NAO winters. I don’t recall any other explicit (with numbers) NAO forecasts to this point.

 Getting a -NAO in DJF has occurred only six times in the last 44 (14%) winters though two of the six occurred in -QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10). In DJFM, there have also been only six of the last 44 as -NAO though only one during El Niño (2009-10) as 1986-7 dropped out due to a neutral March. I define -NAO as sub -0.25 averaged out over the relevant period. So, of the last 14 El Niño DJFMs, only one was sub -0.25.

 Fwiw, I’m leaning -NAO in Feb but either neutral or +NAO in DJF. So, I’d take a neutral DJF.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Have you made a specific forecast for either the DJFM or DJF NAO?

 I know that @40/70 Benchmarkis going with neutral for DJFM (+0.15 to -0.20), which I’d take in a heartbeat in this day and age if difficult to attain -NAO winters. I don’t recall any other explicit (with numbers) NAO forecasts to this point.

 Getting a -NAO in DJF has occurred only six times in the last 44 (14%) winters though two of the six occurred in -QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10). In DJFM, there have also been only six of the last 44 as -NAO though only one during El Niño (2009-10) as 1986-7 dropped out due to a neutral March. I define -NAO as sub -0.25 averaged out over the relevant period. So, of the last 14 El Niño DJFMs, only one was sub -0.25.

 Fwiw, I’m leaning -NAO in Feb but either neutral or +NAO in DJF. So, I’d take a neutral DJF.

Looked to me like most of the deeply negative NAO seasons were ascending shortly after solar min.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@griteaterLove your stuff, man...you have to be my #1 source for outlook graphics lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looked to me like most of the deeply negative NAO seasons were ascending shortly after solar min.

Indeed. That’s why I think the odds of a -NAO this winter are pretty low despite the fact that I think this winter will still be ascending (based on Waldmeier effect) and would be content with a neutral NAO. Four of the last six (back to 1979-80) -NAO DJFs were during ascending but as you alluded to, they were only 4, 13, 13, and 25 months past minimum. This winter will be centered on 49 months past minimum. But despite that, I’m also not giving up hope on a -NAO winter mainly because two of the four similarly timed QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10) had a -NAO DJF and both were ascending (though only 4 and 13 months past min, respectively). That’s not too shabby though the sample size is very small. 1991-2 and 2014-5 El Ninos had similar QBO but both had a +NAO in DJF. However, both of these +NAO similar QBO El Nino winters were during descending solar (14 and 9 months after max, respectively) interestingly enough. Hmmm…

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Along with the note from @so_whats_happening, here are the phase maps for both pos and neg PDO.

 

One way to analyze the use of the PDO for this winter would be to look at all El Nino winters that occurred during a negative PDO regime (i.e. a multi-year PDO regime, which is what it looks like we will remain in this winter unless a hard flip occurs) and eliminate the winters in which a rogue -PDO winter occurred within an otherwise +PDO regime.  Here is a chart of the -PDO regimes as indicated by the black line.

 

 

Here I have it in spreadsheet form as well.  Note that I didn't give "Neg PDO" regime designation to years that hard a hard flip from Neg to Pos PDO in the Fall/Winter during a Neg PDO regime (e.g. 57-58, 69-70, 76,77) or to years that had a hard flip from Pos to Neg PDO in the Fall/winter during a Pos PDO regime (e.g. 94-95, 04-05 - not shown below)

 

Using this logic, here are all El Ninos that occurred during a -PDO regime, and with the PDO not flipping hard to positive during the Fall/Winter.  Note the Central Pacific ridge / West Coast trough.

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed all weak and super El Ninos:

 

Same as previous image, but this time I removed the 1952 winter due to it being in the descending phase of the solar cycle:

 

And here in the final one, I removed 68-69 and 09-10 which were extreme -AO/-NAO winters:

 

Here are all years above in spreadsheet form with various parameters:

 

Bottom line: Winters occuring during El Nino, -PDO Regime. -PDO, and Solar not in descending phase show a composite pattern of a ridge in the central Pac, trough along the west coast, and split flow across the CONUS underneath west-based -NAO.  Assuming the -NAO delivers (-QBO favors it as well), it would be a promising pattern in an enclosed area from the SW states to the S Plains, to the NE, and down to the SE states.  Also, after my "ugh" post earlier about the PDO, I am so back for winter based on this analysis.  LOLLOL.

I do also enjoy your graphics what site do you use to for those DJFM maps?

I also do the exact same on a spread sheet ever since college that has been my go to setup. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Have you made a specific forecast for either the DJFM or DJF NAO?

 I know that @40/70 Benchmarkis going with neutral for DJFM (+0.15 to -0.20), which I’d take in a heartbeat in this day and age of difficult to attain -NAO winters. I don’t recall any other explicit (with numbers) NAO forecasts to this point.

 Getting a -NAO in DJF has occurred only six times in the last 44 (14%) winters though two of the six occurred in -QBO El Niño winters (1986-7 and 2009-10). In DJFM, there have also been only six of the last 44 as -NAO though only one during El Niño (2009-10) as 1986-7 dropped out due to a neutral March. I define -NAO as sub -0.25 averaged out over the relevant period. So, of the last 14 El Niño DJFMs, only one was sub -0.25.

 Fwiw, I’m leaning -NAO in Feb but either neutral or +NAO in DJF. So, I’d take a neutral DJF.

My call was +NAO in Dec and -NAO averaged over Jan-Mar. I’ll go with slightly negative for Jan-Mar