El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. 

Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar

The first part I agree with, but the second part is completely stilly and and an emotional vent on your part.

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

But it is very similar to Euro and Cansips, so it is at least confirmation of the others. Plus, that was 5 years ago. How long do you hold a bad forecast against any model? And have there been updates/improvements to the JMA over the past 5 years? I  think you're being a bit picky if not just negative.

Why do you take these 3 month runs seriously when the EPS can hardly get the pattern correct beyond 6-10 days? Same for all the other models. Remember the Euro October forecast for the Nino 3.4 issued in September of +2.0 and we verified closer to +1.66. The one common denominator to all these winter  model forecasts since 15-16 has been a cold bias in the East. I pointed out 18-19 since it that was the last time we had an El Niño pattern being forecast. 

[stadiumwave]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But it did the same thing with the 18-19 winter forecast issued in November 18. It missed the La Niña or -PDO influence and just went with a cold Modoki pattern for DJF.

18-19 forecast

Verification 

 

 

 

What are the odds CanSips, Euro, & JMA all terribly miss the entire seasonal forecast in NOV? It's not the gospel but not too terribly far off what  my analogs are showing. 

JAN

 

FEB

 

These analogs do have less -EPO.

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Why do you take these 3 month runs seriously when the EPS can hardly get the pattern correct beyond 6-10 days? Same for all the other models. Remember the Euro forecast for the Nino 3.4 issued in September of +2.0 and we verified closer to +1.66. The one common denominator to all these winter  model forecasts since 15-16 has been a cold bias in the East. I pointed out 18-19 since it that was the last time we had an El Niño pattern being forecast. 

 

Yea, but you can't just say that when you don't like what its showing. No one should take a seasonal model as gospel but common themes & trends should be noted. The signal may be muted but can't totally ignore. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

What are the odds CanSips, Euro, & JMA all terribly miss the entire seasonal forecast in NOV? It's not the gospel but not too terribly far off what  my analogs are showing. 

JAN

 

FEB

 

The Euro and the JMA completely missed the last El Niño forecast issued in November 2018. Plus your analogs are different from what the JMA is showing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

What are the odds CanSips, Euro, & JMA all terribly miss the entire seasonal forecast in NOV? It's not the gospel but not too terribly far off what  my analogs are showing. 

JAN

 

FEB

 

I buy what he says about being cautious on a truly cold eastern winter, but I see no reason why we aren't normalish DM with good snows.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro and the JMA completely missed the last El Niño forecast issued in November 2018. Plus your analogs are different from what the JMA is showing. 

That el Nino was a virtual no-show.....I think if anything, this one is also overestimated, which would work to our advantage. It isn't apples to apples....you can't just roll the same situation forward and expect the same result.

I honestly think some of you guys have like warm winter PTSD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can live without having my pipes frozen.....29 and S+ works for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are obviously in a cool Pacific paradigm that mutes the influence of warm ENSO events....I'm not sure why you expect the same result when a "strong" one is partially negated as when a marginal one is entirely negated.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and the JMA completely missed the last El Niño forecast issued in November 2018. Plus your analogs are different from what the JMA is showing. 

First, I said my analIogs have less +PNA, & -EPO.

Second, you're saying because they missed 2018-19 then it follows they automatically do the same? Caution...yes. But...inevitably miss the same way? Possible but not a given. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't happening again to the same degree that it did that year. Is the JMA overzealous? Maybe...but there will be no repeat of 2018-2019.

I was just pointing out the skill of the 18-19 forecast. Not that we will verify the same outcome. The JMA forecast for this winter has the same -EPO +PNA blocking as 14-15. But we have a much different PDO state across the NP. 

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. 

Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar

if the Nina lag plays a major role this winter, i am never long range forecasting ever again

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

I was just pointing out the skill of the 18-19 forecast. Not that we will verify the same outcome. The JMA forecast for this winter has the same -EPO +PNA blocking as 14-15. But we have a much different PDO state across the NP. 

I agree with you about being skeptical on how good the Pacific looks on the JMA.....I don't expect that. But I do buy the seasonal consensus. Its not blind adherence....these models are meant to be used as GUIDANCE and I have done days and days of research that has validated what they are showing. Maybe they and I am wrong again....I do not think that is the case, but if it is, I will learn from it.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with you about being skeptical on how good the Pacific looks on the JMA.....I don't expect that. But I do buy the seasonal consensus. Its not blind adherence....these models are meant to be used as GUIDANCE and I have done days and days of research that has validated what they are showing. Maybe they and I am wrong again....I do not think that is the case, but if it is, I will learn from it.

guidance is largely following analog blends, which gives me more confidence in it

the JMA is aggressive, but with how far west the VP has been, back the Aleutian low up and that's what you get

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. 

Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar

We are in a strong El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the Nina lag plays a major role this winter, i am never long range forecasting ever agin

I expect a VOLATILE PNA that biases slightly + and a volatile polar domain that biases slightly negative....not wall-to-wall arctic. But I think all of this volatility will ensure that winter is not boring. You want teleconnections in flux to get big storms....not a -3SD PV queefing on your face all season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

guidance is largely following analog blends, which gives me more confidence in it

the JMA is aggressive, but with how far west the VP has been, back the Aleutian low up and that's what you get

JMA lends confidence to the consensus IMO...its like having the ensemble mean pointing in a favorable direction when the OP is a bit more precarious.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JMA lends confidence to the consensus IMO...its like having the ensemble mean pointing in a favorable direction when the OP is a bit more precarious.

i mean, this is what i've been thinking for a month or so now. seasonals generally look like this and so did your blend IIRC

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, this is what i've been thinking for a month or so now. seasonals generally look like this and so did your blend IIRC

Yup.

[snowman19]

This is similar to the cooler week on the Euro Weeklies on today’s run where it went from AN to NN. So, not as cool, but same trend toward cooler than prior runs for the end of Nov/start of Dec.

If it plays out like this, it fits perfectly with the Eric Webb strong El Niño/+IOD composite of a drop the tail end of November/early December. Then it goes way up mid-late December, drop early January, big thaw mid-late January, big drop for February then another big rise to end winter for early-mid March. If this animation doesn’t scream El Niño then I don’t know what does….raging STJ with Nino convection firing on the equator:

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree with you about being skeptical on how good the Pacific looks on the JMA.....I don't expect that. But I do buy the seasonal consensus. Its not blind adherence....these models are meant to be used as GUIDANCE and I have done days and days of research that has validated what they are showing. Maybe they and I am wrong again....I do not think that is the case, but if it is, I will learn from it.

All we can say for sure is that the fall has featured a blend of El Niño and La Niña influences to the 500 mb sensible weather pattern. So a continuation of that during the winter would probably have differences from the consensus. More in the way of an undercutting trough in the SW US even with +PNA ridge in Canada. This would greatly limit the available cold. But I would like our snowfall chances better than last year if we get some decent  +PNA -AO intervals. Plus we are running a record breaking 8 warmer than average winters in a row for the Northeast. So we would probably need a cold Modoki pattern like the JMA has to break that streak. It would also require a complete uncoupling from the -PDO influence like we got in early in 20-21 and Jan 22. 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Why do you take these 3 month runs seriously when the EPS can hardly get the pattern correct beyond 6-10 days? Same for all the other models. Remember the Euro October forecast for the Nino 3.4 issued in September of +2.0 and we verified closer to +1.66. The one common denominator to all these winter  model forecasts since 15-16 has been a cold bias in the East. I pointed out 18-19 since it that was the last time we had an El Niño pattern being forecast. 

Who said I  take them seriously, and how do you define "seriously?" I  said the JMA is similar to the Euro and Cansips, which it is. I  just don't believe using a model's blown seasonal forecast from 5 years ago is a scientifically valid basis to throw out a current seasonal forecast.  Moreover, all 3 seasonals mentioned are not far from a canonical moderate/strong Niño, so I don't believe it unreasonableto have a bit less skepticism about them this year. Otoh, if you think seasonal forecasts are useless, that's fine. They're certainly a cr@p shoot, but when there's a consensus among tte seasonal forecasts, they have my attention. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If it plays out like this, it fits perfectly with the Eric Webb strong El Niño/+IOD composite of a drop the tail end of November/early December. Then it goes way up mid-late December, drop early January, big thaw mid-late January, big drop for February then another big rise to end winter for early-mid March. If this animation doesn’t scream El Niño then I don’t know what does….raging STJ with Nino convection firing on the equator:

 

 

 

 

Yea, I mentioned a cool down near the end of the month in the Outlook, but it should be transient.

 

"Before entering phase two with a potential slight cool down to close out the month".

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Who said I  take them seriously, and how do you define "seriously?" I  said the JMA is similar to the Euro and Cansips, which it is. I  just don't believe using a model's blown seasonal forecast from 5 years ago is a scientifically valid basis to throw out a current seasonal forecast.  Moreover, all 3 seasonals mentioned are not far from a canonical moderate/strong Niño, so I don't believe it unreasonableto have a bit less skepticism about them this year. Otoh, if you think seasonal forecasts are useless, that's fine. They're certainly a cr@p shoot, but when there's a consensus among tte seasonal forecasts, they have my attention. 

All I said is that the JMA has the same Pacific carbon copy of the 14-15 Modoki El Niño this winter as it did in 18-19. And that it was incorrect with that forecast repeat in 18-19. So I am skeptical that we see a repeat of 14-15 this winter with the entire North Pacific PDO state nearly opposite from the late fall of 14-15. 
 

 

[snowman19]

All I said is that the JMA has the same Pacific carbon copy of the 14-15 Modoki El Niño this winter as it did in 18-19. And that it was incorrect with that forecast repeat in 18-19. So I am skeptical that we see a repeat of 14-15 this winter with the entire North Pacific PDO state nearly opposite from the late fall of 14-15. 
 


 

IMO January is probably a lot overdone. I don’t think February is though

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO January is probably a lot overdone. I don’t think February is though

I am hoping we get something resembling an El Niño finish to the winter and the CFS MJO 5 IOD rebound forcing influence doesn’t verify in February. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping we get something resembling an El Niño finish to the winter and the CFS MJO 5 IOD rebound forcing influence doesn’t verify in February. 
 

 

Cfs has done pretty well with Enso ssta, but it's on its own with its D-F forecast on average. I say on average because it has had occasional runs looking more like the E/C/J forecast average. However, running 4x/day it comes up with all kinds of forecasts! Lol

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Why do you take these 3 month runs seriously when the EPS can hardly get the pattern correct beyond 6-10 days? Same for all the other models. Remember the Euro October forecast for the Nino 3.4 issued in September of +2.0 and we verified closer to +1.66. The one common denominator to all these winter  model forecasts since 15-16 has been a cold bias in the East. I pointed out 18-19 since it that was the last time we had an El Niño pattern being forecast. 

I'd say that's not a fair comparison. Monthly averages factoring in peak ENSO forcing are more likely to verify than snapshot forecasts 2-3 weeks out in many cases. But as others noted, 18/19 was much weaker and therefore you would assume the predictability would be lower too. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

I'd say that's not a fair comparison. Monthly averages factoring in peak ENSO forcing are more likely to verify than snapshot forecasts 2-3 weeks out in many cases. But as others noted, 18/19 was much weaker and therefore you would assume the predictability would be lower too. 

It would honestly be unbelievable if we get a high-end strong/super El Niño and don’t see El Nino forcing all winter, I don’t want to say impossible but VERY highly unlikely, very….

[snowman19]

 We have a clearcut trend conflict. The brand new update for WCS OISST (11/11) has it at +1.87 (up from 11/10’s +1.82). This is about tied with 11/1/23 for the highest so far for this Nino on that dataset. OTOH, three different datasets (CRW, CDAS, and OSTIA) have been trending cooler in recent days. So, this is kind of strange.

WCS would absolutely be correct, the other ones are out to lunch. The CPC just updated, Nino 3.4 is +1.8C