El Nino 2023-2024

[raindancewx]

The time from the solar min to the solar peak actually looks pretty consistent with the rule posted above. The cycle min was the year ending February 2019, at 2/sunspots per month, and the cycle peak looks like it will be the year ending November 2023, so that's 4 years and 8 months, for a 123 sunspot/month peak, v. 5 years for 116/month in the chart above.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If Webb’s progression is accurate, we see a drop at the tail end of this month into the beginning of December, then a big rise mid-late December, a brief drop early January, then a big thaw mid-late January, the bottom falls out for February, then right back up for early-mid March. If we do in fact see a decent 4 weeks in February (i.e.: Feb, 2021), even if it’s only one big storm, I don’t think anyone would be complaining given how bad the last several winters have been….

Seems about right to me.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Webb isn’t telling us what a good number of us already know regarding moderate+ El Niño climo, Feb is favored as the coldest month in terms of anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. That may also be the case in the SE US. He’s also saying that much of Dec is favored by climo to have warm anomalies, again nothing many here don’t already know. So, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

Yeah, really. Lol. Of course to some, pretty much everyone on this forum is not nearly as knowledgeable as eric. The redtaggers are just novelty mets.

    I don't disrespect Eric, he's a good Met. However, many are on here and shouldn't be disrespected either. That includes enthusiasts as well. Many are just as knowledgeable as degreed Mets. 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, griteater said:

UKMO OSTIA is down again today to +1.59 as of 11-11.  CDAS on TT has also seen a slight drop of late as of 11-12. So not sure what to make of the WCS number 

 We have a clearcut trend conflict. The brand new update for WCS OISST (11/11) has it at +1.87 (up from 11/10’s +1.82). This is about tied with 11/1/23 for the highest so far for this Nino on that dataset. OTOH, three different datasets (CRW, CDAS, and OSTIA) have been trending cooler in recent days. So, this is kind of strange.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, really. Lol. Of course to some, pretty much everyone on this forum is not nearly as knowledgeable as eric. The redtaggers are just novelty mets.

    I don't disrespect Eric, he's a good Met. However, many are on here shouldn't be disrespected either. That includes enthusiasts as well. Many are just as knowledgeable as degreed Mets. 

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

Exactly. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The time from the solar min to the solar peak actually looks pretty consistent with the rule posted above. The cycle min was the year ending February 2019, at 2/sunspots per month, and the cycle peak looks like it will be the year ending November 2023, so that's 4 years and 8 months, for a 123 sunspot/month peak, v. 5 years for 116/month in the chart above.

 

This last solar min was in Dec of 2019 per this found here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25

 

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspotactivity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8.

 

[GaWx]

This link shows the 13-month smoothed monthly total sunspot number (what I used to put together my lists) and it has 1.8, the lowest, in 12/2019:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_ms_tot_V2.0.txt

2019 10 2019.790    2.6   0.4  1065  
2019 11 2019.873    2.0   0.4   832  
2019 12 2019.958    1.8   0.4   855  
2020 01 2020.042    2.2   0.8   795  
2020 02 2020.124    2.7   1.4   967 

 So, I think the odds are good that the solar max (based on smoothed 13 month average) is going to be after this winter. If it (13 month smoothed average) isn’t after Feb of 2024, I’ll be wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's funny how some of spend several months at one another's throats arguing over the most subtle of nuances, only to realize that we essentially agree on the big picture  @snowman19

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Genuine skill and self-esteem is usually positively correlated with humility. It tells you something about the guys who are always on the offensive....they lack either one or both. Look at a guy like Don Sutherland.....should be top 5 on everyone's follow list.

 Now that I’ve seen yours, I’m most curious about Don’s NAO forecast for this winter. His +NAO forecast for last winter was about the only one I can recall other than your forecast for a weak +NAO (+0.15 to +0.45) for DJFM, who went outright +NAO. If anyone else did, I apologize for not recalling or seeing it.

 DJF’s NAO ended up at +0.67. DJFM, thanks to the major SSW of Feb 16th leading to a strong -NAO in March, came in at only at +0.23. So, an excellent call on your part. I see you’re going for a DJFM NAO forecast of neutral (+0.15 to -0.20), which I’d take in a heartbeat in this current era of hard/easy to attain -NAO/+NAO winters.

 Have you or has anyone else seen an NAO forecast from Don for winter of 23-24?

[Daniel Boone]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Great Job man ! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Now that I’ve seen yours, I’m most curious about Don’s NAO forecast for this winter. His +NAO forecast for last winter was about the only one I can recall other than your forecast for a weak +NAO (+0.15 to +0.45) for DJFM, who went outright +NAO. If anyone else did, I apologize for not recalling or seeing it.

 DJF’s NAO ended up at +0.67. DJFM, thanks to the major SSW of Feb 16th leading to a strong -NAO in March, came in at only at +0.23. So, an excellent call on your part. I see you’re going for a DJFM NAO forecast of neutral (+0.15 to -0.20), which I’d take in a heartbeat in this current era of hard/easy to attain -NAO/+NAO winters.

 Have you or has anyone else seen an NAO forecast from Don for winter of 23-24?

Thanks...last year was a great example of how chaotic snowfall is...it's subject to so much variance. Ostensibly, it looks as though I did an awful job last year, but it was actually one of my better efforts underneath the hood, so to speak...the results just weren't there. This as opposed to my first effort back in 2014-2015...everyone thought that I nailed it going for a huge snowfall season in SNE, but its was luck via smoke and mirrors because I was going big -NAO/AO and the opposite was the case. Only thing I got right was the weak-modoki/big SNE snow correlation. Had I incorporated the solar stuff that I do now, back then, I would not have called for the big Atlantic blocking due to the descending solar. Just like I was have been much more tame in 2015-2016 and 2018-2019 if I had been using RONI and MEI like I do now.

Its. not about getting everything right, but rather learning from when it goes wrong because it will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don implied to me earlier this fall that he didn't see a strongly positive NAO this year.

[GaWx]

 For the first time on any run back to Oct 28th, the EPS weeklies have near normal instead of above normal temperatures most favored for the week 11/27-12/4 throughout the E half of the US fwiw:

[bluewave]

The unusually poor TSI for a strong El Niño is another factor inhibiting this from going super. 

Translation

 

The difficulty in forecasting Niño 1+2 in the long term is linked to the multiplicity of variables that dominate it: It is not only the Anticyclone. Even with a not very intense anticyclone, there are oceanographic phenomena, such as the inclination of the thermocline that make it difficult for the massive entry of warm Kelvin waves. This event is being characterized by a relatively poor index of inclination of the thermocline, which is the layer of the ocean that separates warm (above) and cold (below) waters, compared to previous #ElNiño events. For further analysis, it can be seen in the attached figure that the concentration of red tones (strong subsidence of the thermocline) occurred between April and August in our area of the Equatorial Pacific (80º-100º), today we are much more normalized. The last Kelvin formed does not show a major subsidence as it advances to South America (again). If this continues to materialize, as has happened in recent months, the #NiñoCostero would lose magnitude (in fact, in the latest ENFEN report, the probabilities that grow are that of weak (mainly) and neutral at the expense of strong (the that decreases the most) and moderate).

 

[BlizzardWx]

Is there any historical dataset of NAO/AO (etc) that has a sub monthly resolution? If you know of one, please pass it along. Thanks. 

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Is there any historical dataset of NAO/AO (etc) that has a sub monthly resolution? If you know of one, please pass it along. Thanks. 

Daily NAO back to 1950:
https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii

 When comparing these to the monthlies, the average of the dailies typically has ~half the amplitude of the monthlies. For example, the tabular monthly has a -2.03 for October of 2023 vs the average of the dailies being ~-0.9. For August of 2023, whereas the tabular monthly is -1.16, the average of the dailies is ~-0.6.

 Links to other dailies:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/
 
 The average of the PNA dailies similarly has ~1/2 the amp of the table. Oddly enough, the AO is unlike the NAO and PNA with the average of the dailies being close to the table.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The unusually poor TSI for a strong El Niño is another factor inhibiting this from going super. 

Translation

 

The difficulty in forecasting Niño 1+2 in the long term is linked to the multiplicity of variables that dominate it: It is not only the Anticyclone. Even with a not very intense anticyclone, there are oceanographic phenomena, such as the inclination of the thermocline that make it difficult for the massive entry of warm Kelvin waves. This event is being characterized by a relatively poor index of inclination of the thermocline, which is the layer of the ocean that separates warm (above) and cold (below) waters, compared to previous #ElNiño events. For further analysis, it can be seen in the attached figure that the concentration of red tones (strong subsidence of the thermocline) occurred between April and August in our area of the Equatorial Pacific (80º-100º), today we are much more normalized. The last Kelvin formed does not show a major subsidence as it advances to South America (again). If this continues to materialize, as has happened in recent months, the #NiñoCostero would lose magnitude (in fact, in the latest ENFEN report, the probabilities that grow are that of weak (mainly) and neutral at the expense of strong (the that decreases the most) and moderate).

 

Odd. When I  translated it, the phrase you have "in the latest ENFEN Report" came out as the "...EFEN Report."

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seems about right to me.

The continued mixed Nino/Nina elements are concerning. 

Having a Nina background state while Nino tries to influence the pattern could be a major desconstructive problem. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

The continued mixed Nino/Nina elements are concerning. 

Having a Nina background state while Nino tries to influence the pattern could be a major desconstructive problem. 

I am all for it....

[stadiumwave]

CFS Weeklies sure changed for the first week of DEC

 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

CFS Weeklies sure changed for the first week of DEC

 

This is similar to the cooler week on the Euro Weeklies on today’s run where it went from AN to NN. So, not as cool, but same trend toward cooler than prior runs for the end of Nov/start of Dec.

[stadiumwave]

JMA... I'm not where I can post it but I'll put the link and you'll can pull it up. January February is like absolutely cold. DEC  Is strong Nino was Dec

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA... I'm not where I can post it but I'll put the link and you'll can pull it up. January February is like absolutely cold. DEC  Is strong Nino was Dec

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Best seasonal yet!

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

JMA... I'm not where I can post it but I'll put the link and you'll can pull it up. January February is like absolutely cold. DEC  Is strong Nino was Dec

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

 

DJF

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

That's impressive!

[GaWx]

Updated CPC OHC graph: latest warming topped out. Is this only a temporary halt or is it the start of new cooling? 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

DJF

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

FEB

 

That's impressive!

But it did the same thing with the 18-19 winter forecast issued in November 18. It missed the La Niña or -PDO influence and just went with a cold Modoki pattern for DJF.

18-19 forecast

Verification 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. 

Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But it did the same thing with the 18-19 winter forecast issued in November 18. It missed the La Niña or -PDO influence and just went with a cold Modoki pattern for DJF.

18-19 forecast

Verification 

 

 

But it is very similar to Euro and Cansips, so it is at least confirmation of the others. Plus, that was 5 years ago. How long do you hold a bad forecast against any model? And have there been updates/improvements to the JMA over the past 5 years? I  think you're being a bit picky if not just negative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But it did the same thing with the 18-19 winter forecast issued in November 18. It missed the La Niña or -PDO influence and just went with a cold Modoki pattern for DJF.

18-19 forecast

Verification 

 

 

That isn't happening again to the same degree that it did that year. Is the JMA overzealous? Maybe...but there will be no repeat of 2018-2019.