El Nino 2023-2024

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yes

Thanks. I noticed this on weatherbell. I also noticed that the extended usually leans warm whether or not it ends up being warm. For instance, the end of october/early November looked warm when it was four weeks out and ended up being cold as it got closer. 

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks. I noticed this on weatherbell. I also noticed that the extended usually leans warm whether or not it ends up being warm. For instance, the end of october/early November looked warm when it was four weeks out and ended up being cold as it got closer. 

 

They've been awful!

[stadiumwave]

So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality. 

[griteater]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is a really good thread with detailed explanations, take the time to read:
 

It was a good thread from Paul.  I asked him a few questions.  I mean, I get that the downwelling wave post-WWB will warm both the subsurface and surface as it treks east (and we actually already have one of those ongoing), but IMO, there is a limit to how much this can warm if the westerly anomalies don't sustain themselves or come back in earnest again (not currently shown, but sure, that is out in the future).  And with respect to the rainfall / convection moving east, same thoughts, unless this WWB is massive or has follow-up support, I don't see how this event is going to re-configure the base WCell uplift regions which have already established themselves and are well-entrenched.  Not to mention, basically every forecast model has them staying put through winter. 

 

 

 

[griteater]

18 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality. 

The weekly MJO updates from NOAA give good info on this, but when you see the RRM plots circling around in a similar location, that indicates that it's not a true MJO wave, but rather, it's the plots picking up on how the IOD and ENSO are running the base state.  A true MJO wave will continue moving forward as it ramps up and not stop & circle back.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

So most models have MJO in either phase 8 or 1 to start DEC. It's not a very high amplitude but is this truly MJO? I know that the RMM does not always reflect reality. 

Isn't a weak phase 1, 2, or 8 good for cold?

[bluewave]

The one common denominator with Decembers in the Northeast since 2011 has been warmth regardless of El Niño or La Niña. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

December 

2022…30.2….+1.2….La Niña -PDO

2021….33.5….+4.5….La Niña -PDO…4th warmest on record

2020…30.9…..+3.2….La Niña -PDO…17th warmest 

2019….29.0…..+1.3….Neutral 

2018….29.3….+1.6…..Uncoupled El Niño -PDO

2017….24.2….-3.5….La Niña Neutral PDO

2016….28.3….+0.6…La Niña +PDO

2015….39.4…..+11.7….Super El Niño +PDO record MJO 4-6 warmest December on record by a wide margin. 

2014….31.6…..+3.9….Modoki El Niño +PDO 14th warmest on record

2013….26.1….-1.1….Neutral

2012….32.4…..+4.7…El Nino peaked on Labor Day and went neutral with a -PDO….winter followed backloaded El Niño theme with Nemo in February 

2011…32.7….+5.0…..La Niña -PDO….8th warmest December

[griteater]

45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Isn't a weak phase 1, 2, or 8 good for cold?

It depends on the time of year.  On average, Phase 1 in late Nov has a trough on the west coast...in late Dec, trough on east coast. 

Link: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

 

 

[thunderbolt]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

It depends on the time of year.  On average, Phase 1 in late Nov has a trough on the west coast...in late Dec, trough on east coast. 

Link: https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

 

 

Phase1 when El Niño is greater than .5 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

It was a good thread from Paul.  I asked him a few questions.  I mean, I get that the downwelling wave post-WWB will warm both the subsurface and surface as it treks east (and we actually already have one of those ongoing), but IMO, there is a limit to how much this can warm if the westerly anomalies don't sustain themselves or come back in earnest again (not currently shown, but sure, that is out in the future).  And with respect to the rainfall / convection moving east, same thoughts, unless this WWB is massive or has follow-up support, I don't see how this event is going to re-configure the base WCell uplift regions which have already established themselves and are well-entrenched.  Not to mention, basically every forecast model has them staying put through winter. 

 

 

 

See i dont understand that comment of his with WWBs not needing to sustain themselves. That is exactly what 1997 did so while one WWB event didnt last the whole season it died and another one came right in on its toes to allow this continual warm push eastward.

[raindancewx]

Same PDO influence as what you'd expect over the past week. Should continue on/off for a while.

The subtropical jet has been active though.

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??
 

 

 

 

 

The near record strat wind speeds for Nov 10-12 is old news per EPS runs the last 2+ weeks. For example, here’s the run from way back on Oct 25th…note the forecasted peak on Nov 11th:

 

 Also, there was a record strong SPV 1/1/23 and yet there was a minor SSW late Jan/early Feb, a major SSW mid Feb, and a further warming near the end of Feb.

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

In other news, Nino 3.4 is down to +1.62 from a high of +1.81 on Oct 30

cyclonicwx.com hasn’t updated since the +1.62 of 11/8. However, WCS (which also is based on OISSTv2.1) has and after the 11/7 dip (its 11/7 is equivalent to cyclonicwx’s 11/8), WCS has warmed the last 3 days back up to +1.82 as of 11/10 (what will be cyclonicwx’s 11/11 once it updates) to just below its 11/1 high of +1.86:

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Isn't a weak phase 1, 2, or 8 good for cold?

Yes, indeed, it is hard to beat weak (not strong) phases 1/2/8 for best cold chances in the E US (especially SE US but applies to E US overall) during El Niño winters as per the following post I did on Oct 9:

 In that post, I listed 15 MJO diagrams from Nino winters that covered extensive periods of weak MJO (mainly left side of MJO chart) back to 1976-7 and showed how cold each period was for both ATL and NYC. From that post:

“Weak 8-1-2 dominating during El Niño often favors a cold to very cold E US, especially SE US. As one who prefers cold, I would want a lot of weak 8-1-2 to keep cold chances the highest.”

“So, for ATL, these 15 portions of El Niño winters with weak mainly left-sided MJO averaged a very cold 8 BN over 346 days. The 15 periods varied between -14 (MBN) and -5 (BN) with 11 MBN and 4 BN.

 So, for NYC, these 15 portions of El Niño winters with weak mainly left-sided MJO averaged a cold 4 BN over 346 days. The 15 periods varied between -15 (MBN) and +1 (N) with 5 MBN, 6BN, and 3N.”

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. 

That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

 

[raindancewx]

I'm increasingly open to the idea that we're actually passing the solar peak for this cycle. If you look at the data, we hit ~122 sunspots/month for the year ending September 2023. That's up from ~2 sunspots/month for the year ending Feb 2019. Oct & Nov 2023 both look like they could finish at 115 or less. We've not had two months in a row that low in a year or so. But they'll both beat Oct/Nov of 2022. But is December going to bounce back to over 110 after a few months below? Is January going to bounce back to 150 or something? I have my doubts.

2022 09 2022.705   96.0  16.3  1264  
2022 10 2022.790   95.5  16.0  1215  
2022 11 2022.873   80.5  16.2  1047  
2022 12 2022.958  112.8  16.6   860  
2023 01 2023.042  144.4  29.4   968  
2023 02 2023.122  111.3  20.7  1014  
2023 03 2023.204  123.3  17.9  1081  
2023 04 2023.286   97.6  18.0  1132  
2023 05 2023.371  137.4  19.6  1240  
2023 06 2023.453  160.5  20.0  1248  
2023 07 2023.538  159.1  17.3  1039 *
2023 08 2023.623  114.8  15.4  1095 *
2023 09 2023.705  133.6  17.6  1140 *
2023 10 2023.790   99.4  16.0   958 *

I mention this because the 'ascending solar favors blocking' thing is likely moot if we're already starting to wind down. 

The last solar cycle peaked in October 2013-September 2014 at ~117 sunspots/month, so conceptually the timing is feasible. Especially since the cycles since 1762 have been observed to range from 9-13 years. It's not an automatic 11 year cycle.

2013 10 2013.790  114.4   8.2   421  
2013 11 2013.874  113.9   8.2   321  
2013 12 2013.958  124.2   9.1   402  
2014 01 2014.042  117.0   8.2   398  
2014 02 2014.123  146.1  10.7   384  
2014 03 2014.204  128.7   8.6   493  
2014 04 2014.288  112.5   6.9   486  
2014 05 2014.371  112.5   7.5   493  
2014 06 2014.455  102.9   7.7   469  
2014 07 2014.538  100.2   7.4   477  
2014 08 2014.623  106.9   7.6   486  
2014 09 2014.707  130.0   8.7   419  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm increasingly open to the idea that we're actually passing the solar peak for this cycle. If you look at the data, we hit ~122 sunspots/month for the year ending September 2023. That's up from ~2 sunspots/month for the year ending Feb 2019. Oct & Nov 2023 both look like they could finish at 115 or less. We've not had two months in a row that low in a year or so. But they'll both beat Oct/Nov of 2022. But is December going to bounce back to over 110 after a few months below? Is January going to bounce back to 150 or something? I have my doubts.

2022 09 2022.705   96.0  16.3  1264  
2022 10 2022.790   95.5  16.0  1215  
2022 11 2022.873   80.5  16.2  1047  
2022 12 2022.958  112.8  16.6   860  
2023 01 2023.042  144.4  29.4   968  
2023 02 2023.122  111.3  20.7  1014  
2023 03 2023.204  123.3  17.9  1081  
2023 04 2023.286   97.6  18.0  1132  
2023 05 2023.371  137.4  19.6  1240  
2023 06 2023.453  160.5  20.0  1248  
2023 07 2023.538  159.1  17.3  1039 *
2023 08 2023.623  114.8  15.4  1095 *
2023 09 2023.705  133.6  17.6  1140 *
2023 10 2023.790   99.4  16.0   958 *

I mention this because the 'ascending solar favors blocking' thing is likely moot if we're already starting to wind down. 

The last solar cycle peaked in October 2013-September 2014 at ~117 sunspots/month, so conceptually the timing is feasible. Especially since the cycles since 1762 have been observed to range from 9-13 years. It's not an automatic 11 year cycle.

2013 10 2013.790  114.4   8.2   421  
2013 11 2013.874  113.9   8.2   321  
2013 12 2013.958  124.2   9.1   402  
2014 01 2014.042  117.0   8.2   398  
2014 02 2014.123  146.1  10.7   384  
2014 03 2014.204  128.7   8.6   493  
2014 04 2014.288  112.5   6.9   486  
2014 05 2014.371  112.5   7.5   493  
2014 06 2014.455  102.9   7.7   469  
2014 07 2014.538  100.2   7.4   477  
2014 08 2014.623  106.9   7.6   486  
2014 09 2014.707  130.0   8.7   419  

It doesn't matter for this year. Solar wind and geomagnetic energy don't really get going for about a year after solar peak....its not instant. Like most things in weather, there is a lag. It would likely be important for next year, though.

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I'm increasingly open to the idea that we're actually passing the solar peak for this cycle. If you look at the data, we hit ~122 sunspots/month for the year ending September 2023. That's up from ~2 sunspots/month for the year ending Feb 2019. Oct & Nov 2023 both look like they could finish at 115 or less. We've not had two months in a row that low in a year or so. But they'll both beat Oct/Nov of 2022. But is December going to bounce back to over 110 after a few months below? Is January going to bounce back to 150 or something? I have my doubts.

2022 09 2022.705   96.0  16.3  1264  
2022 10 2022.790   95.5  16.0  1215  
2022 11 2022.873   80.5  16.2  1047  
2022 12 2022.958  112.8  16.6   860  
2023 01 2023.042  144.4  29.4   968  
2023 02 2023.122  111.3  20.7  1014  
2023 03 2023.204  123.3  17.9  1081  
2023 04 2023.286   97.6  18.0  1132  
2023 05 2023.371  137.4  19.6  1240  
2023 06 2023.453  160.5  20.0  1248  
2023 07 2023.538  159.1  17.3  1039 *
2023 08 2023.623  114.8  15.4  1095 *
2023 09 2023.705  133.6  17.6  1140 *
2023 10 2023.790   99.4  16.0   958 *

I mention this because the 'ascending solar favors blocking' thing is likely moot if we're already starting to wind down. 

The last solar cycle peaked in October 2013-September 2014 at ~117 sunspots/month, so conceptually the timing is feasible. Especially since the cycles since 1762 have been observed to range from 9-13 years. It's not an automatic 11 year cycle.

2013 10 2013.790  114.4   8.2   421  
2013 11 2013.874  113.9   8.2   321  
2013 12 2013.958  124.2   9.1   402  
2014 01 2014.042  117.0   8.2   398  
2014 02 2014.123  146.1  10.7   384  
2014 03 2014.204  128.7   8.6   493  
2014 04 2014.288  112.5   6.9   486  
2014 05 2014.371  112.5   7.5   493  
2014 06 2014.455  102.9   7.7   469  
2014 07 2014.538  100.2   7.4   477  
2014 08 2014.623  106.9   7.6   486  
2014 09 2014.707  130.0   8.7   419  

 I believe it is highly unlikely that cycle 25 has already reached its peak. Why? The Waldmeier Effect:

“The Waldmeier effect describes the observation that the maximum amplitudes of solar cycles are inversely proportional to the time between their solar minima and maxima. Therefore, cycles with larger maximum amplitudes tend to take less time to reach their maxima than cycles with smaller amplitudes.”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
 

  If the 13 mo were to turn out to peak, say, in June of 2023, it looks to be no more than ~140. This 140ish peak would be only 3 years, 6 months after the prior minimum. Per Waldmeier, I’d be looking for a large max for it to peak that quickly. A 140 peaking only 3.5 years after the prior min would be very low for such a quick rise to the peak:

 

Shortest rises min to max/peak 13 mo. avg

-2 yrs, 11 mos/264

-3 yrs, 2 mos/213

-3 yrs, 3 mos/219

-3 yrs, 3 mos/193

-3 yrs, 4 mos/245

-3 yrs, 5 mos/235

-3 yrs, 5 mos/234

-3 yrs, 7 mos/199

 

Longest rises min to max/peak 13 mo. average

-6 yrs, 10 mos/82

-6 yrs, 6 mos/119

-6 yrs, 4 mos/144

-5 hrs, 10 mos/81

-5 yrs, 4 mos/116

-5 yrs, 3 mos/180

-5 yrs, 0 mos/116

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

[bluewave]

Continuation of the competing El Niño and La Niña influences heading into late November.

 

[snowman19]

cyclonicwx.com hasn’t updated since the +1.62 of 11/8. However, WCS (which also is based on OISSTv2.1) has and after the 11/7 dip (its 11/7 is equivalent to cyclonicwx’s 11/8), WCS has warmed the last 3 days back up to +1.82 as of 11/10 (what will be cyclonicwx’s 11/11 once it updates) to just below its 11/1 high of +1.86:

It’s continuing to warm, would not surprise me if it’s over +1.9C now

[snowman19]

The weekly MJO updates from NOAA give good info on this, but when you see the RRM plots circling around in a similar location, that indicates that it's not a true MJO wave, but rather, it's the plots picking up on how the IOD and ENSO are running the base state.  A true MJO wave will continue moving forward as it ramps up and not stop & circle back.

100%. That is not an MJO, there is no coherent MJO activity in fact. The ++IOD and the low frequency forcing from the El Niño standing wave have taken over and are running the show now, proof that the Nino is strengthening further

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s continuing to warm, would not surprise me if it’s over +1.9C now

Why is Coral Reef Watch only at +1.62 as of yesterday? CRW has never been cooler( and especially by that much) than OISST since I’ve been following it. Something doesn’t add up. 

[snowman19]

Why is Coral Reef Watch only at +1.62 as of yesterday? CRW has never been cooler( and especially by that much) than OISST since I’ve been following it. Something doesn’t add up. 

I have seen several times this event where CRW has been much cooler in region 1+2 than OISST, same story in region 3. That is definitely the correct OISST value on WCS that @Gawx posted. In addition, the SOI is now down into the -20’s

[roardog]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I have seen several times this event where CRW has been much cooler in region 1+2 than OISST, same story in region 3. That is definitely the correct OISST value on WCS that @Gawx posted. In addition, the SOI is now down into the -20’s

It’ll be interesting to see what tomorrow’s CPC anomaly is.  

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, griteater said:

unless this WWB is massive or has follow-up support, I don't see how this event is going to re-configure the base WCell uplift regions which have already established themselves and are well-entrenched.

The actual WWB is weaker and further west than some of the more impressive November WWBs of the past. 
 

 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s continuing to warm, would not surprise me if it’s over +1.9C now

UKMO OSTIA is down again today to +1.59 as of 11-11.  CDAS on TT has also seen a slight drop of late as of 11-12. So not sure what to make of the WCS number 

[snowman19]

Pretty good evidence from Eric Webb that February is going to be the real winter month, looks like December is above normal (as expected), drop early January, then according to this mid-late January has a major thaw, then winter drops in come February. March looks like it warms back up above normal if this one follows the past progressions
 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Pretty good evidence from Eric Webb that February is going to be the real winter month, looks like December is above normal (as expected), drop early January, then according to this mid-late January has a major thaw, then winter drops in come February. March looks like it warms back up above normal if this one follows the past progressions
 

 

 

 

 

 Webb isn’t telling us what a good number of us already know regarding moderate+ El Niño climo, Feb is favored as the coldest month in terms of anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. That may also be the case in the SE US. He’s also saying that much of Dec is favored by climo to have warm anomalies, again nothing many here don’t already know. So, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

[winter_warlock]

21 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Isn't a weak phase 1, 2, or 8 good for cold?

Yes i beleive so!! 1,2, and 8 usually  means a very favorable pattern for cold in eastern Us!

[snowman19]

 Webb isn’t telling us what a good number of us already know regarding moderate+ El Niño climo, Feb is favored as the coldest month in terms of anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. That may also be the case in the SE US. He’s also saying that much of Dec is favored by climo to have warm anomalies, again nothing many here don’t already know. So, this isn’t exactly earth-shattering news.

If Webb’s progression is accurate, we see a drop at the tail end of this month into the beginning of December, then a big rise mid-late December, a brief drop early January, then a big thaw mid-late January, the bottom falls out for February, then right back up for early-mid March. If we do in fact see a decent 4 weeks in February (i.e.: Feb, 2021), even if it’s only one big storm, I don’t think anyone would be complaining given how bad the last several winters have been….