El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw, the Euro Weeklies are warm in the E US through at least 12/25/23 and with no sign of an impending change fwiw.

Correct.  Which would not be surprising. However, the weeklies have been pretty much worthless past day 10 for a while.  So while we probably should have the expectation of warm I do not think the weeklies have a hold of the pattern

[roardog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Fwiw, the Euro Weeklies are warm in the E US through at least 12/25/23 and with no sign of an impending change fwiw.

They don’t look like a warm Nino December pattern though. It has an Aleutian ridge and deep western US trough. More of a Nina like pattern than anything. 

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, roardog said:

They don’t look like a warm Nino December pattern though. It has an Aleutian ridge and deep western US trough. More of a Nina like pattern than anything. 

the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west

[roardog]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west

Isn't it usually an Aleutian trough that extends to the western US flooding the the US with pacific air though? The pattern depicted looks like it would actually drive arctic air into the US west of the Mississippi River. 

[Terpeast]

Uh oh, JB is gonna be all over this…

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/travel/worlds-newest-island-forms-in-japanese-archipelago-scn/index.html

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the catch is that that is a Nino pattern features a trough in the west

But the more amplified Aleutians ridge NW of Hawaii and Southeast ridge is a La Niña feature in December. So the long range Euro looks more like a La Niña in early December. Since the EPS or GEFS don’t have such great skill beyond 10 days, it’s just speculation at this point. We can say if the -PDO pattern is dominant, then it could look like that. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the more amplified Aleutians ridge NW of Hawaii and Southeast ridge is a La Niña feature in December. 

Good post. It's lazy to think that an El Nino produces a -PNA December because a few examples show that. The natural state is +PNA. 

[raindancewx]

We're on the board here for snow. Parts of the city had a dusting to an inch, with 0.3" at the official site.  Timing remains pretty close to my analog "snow signal" composite. These were periods when measurable snow showed up in multiple analogs.

We had no rain or snow in town from 9/19-11/09, which is unusual in an El Nino. But I had two of the 10 lowest precipitation totals for that period as analogs with 1991 (0.26") and 1951 (0.42").

I've mentioned since 2015 that there is a direct negative correlation between Albuquerque and Philadelphia snow in El Nino. That relationship has been getting stronger with subsequent El Ninos (2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20).

[Jersey Andrew]

15 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

We're on the board here for snow. Parts of the city had a dusting to an inch, with 0.3" at the official site.  Timing remains pretty close to my analog "snow signal" composite. These were periods when measurable snow showed up in multiple analogs.

We had no rain or snow in town from 9/19-11/09, which is unusual in an El Nino. But I had two of the 10 lowest precipitation totals for that period as analogs with 1991 (0.26") and 1951 (0.42").

I've mentioned since 2015 that there is a direct negative correlation between Albuquerque and Philadelphia snow in El Nino. That relationship has been getting stronger with subsequent El Ninos (2015-16, 2018-19, 2019-20).

Do you expect a wet pattern this winter in desert Southwest including Las Vegas?

[griteater]

Nov-Mar SST anomaly progression on the Copernicus Ensemble Mean

 

[griteater]

Dec-Feb 200mb zonal wind anomaly on the Copernicus Ensemble Mean. Solid split flow / subtropical jet stream shown here

 

[griteater]

February currently looking like dynamite in a powder keg on a lot of the modeling. Here it is on the Copernicus Ensemble Mean

 

[stadiumwave]

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

February currently looking like dynamite in a powder keg on a lot of the modeling. Here it is on the Copernicus Ensemble Mean

 

 

Can you post January?

[griteater]

10 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Can you post January?

 

[mitchnick]

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

[snowman19]

This is a really good thread with detailed explanations, take the time to read:

[stadiumwave]

UKMET

 

[snowman19]

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??

[brooklynwx99]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??
 

 

 

 

 

i doubt it. it’s probably getting back to near normal once we head into December, and then there is the chance for weakening. this is a temporary spike

[griteater]

In other news, Nino 3.4 is down to +1.62 from a high of +1.81 on Oct 30

[griteater]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Big question….Is this the work of the stratospheric volcanic water vapor saturation from Hunga Tonga doing its dirty work now that we have gone into the cold months??
 

 

 

 

 

It's a rough start to the strat PV, there's no doubt about it.  Is it attributable to Hunga Tonga? - possibly, but if yes, I don't know if/how it can be proven unless it is heavily studied later.  Anyway, as Amy indicates there, a ramped up strat PV may be subject to wave propagation / heat flux down the road a bit...I don't know the science behind that sequence.

[snowman19]

It's a rough start to the strat PV, there's no doubt about it.  Is it attributable to Hunga Tonga? - possibly, but if yes, I don't know if/how it can be proven unless it is heavily studied later.  Anyway, as Amy indicates there, a ramped up strat PV may be subject to wave propagation / heat flux down the road a bit...I don't know the science behind that sequence.

Besides Hunga Tonga, I wonder if the ++IOD is also playing a role (i.e. 2019)

[griteater]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Besides Hunga Tonga, I wonder if the ++IOD is also playing a role (i.e. 2019)

We've had several +AO winters with +IOD, but it's hard to figure out if the IOD is the culprit because there were other issues in there that could have caused +AO (Pinatubo / Descending Solar).  To that point, the composite on the JMA site for +IOD is a -AO, and that matches some of my own research going way back (1900).

[snowman19]

We've had several +AO winters with +IOD, but it's hard to figure out if the IOD is the culprit because there were other issues in there that could have caused +AO (Pinatubo / Descending Solar).  To that point, the composite on the JMA site for +IOD is a -AO, and that matches some of my own research going way back (1900).

Like you said, if this actually is Hunga Tonga induced, good luck proving that right now, that will take months of strat experts looking at before any such conclusion would be made. I guess maybe the high solar flux/solar max could somehow be playing a role? Is there a +IOD connection? Could the unusual evolution of this El Niño (see Paul Roundy’s detailed twitter post from this morning) be playing a role? Has it altered atmospheric circulations enough to cause it? Lots of questions that won’t be answered probably until this winter is all said and done

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

In other news, Nino 3.4 is down to +1.62 from a high of +1.81 on Oct 30

 

But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. 

I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does. 

[thunderbolt]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. 

I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does. 

Lol

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 
But that next Kelvin Wave, like those strong westerlies, will bump it up to 2.5. Oh wait, the westerlies didn't bump it up. 
I feel like for 6 weeks, it's always that next big thing....and this Nino will show its monstrosity....except it never does. 

Before making definite declarations that there isn’t going to be a major warmup, I’d direct you to Paul’s posts this morning. No, this WWB/DWKW event is not like the previous ones, which he describes in detail. This event is extremely unique has had an evolution we haven’t seen in a very, very long time. Also, look at what’s going on with the sea level anomalies, the subsurface and the warm water volume right now. I’d be very careful saying this thing is not going to strengthen anymore. IMO this event is going to burn a bunch of people really bad trying to use recent climo to diagnose this Nino. It has not peaked IMO

 

 

 

 

[stadiumwave]

 

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Correct.  Which would not be surprising. However, the weeklies have been pretty much worthless past day 10 for a while.  So while we probably should have the expectation of warm I do not think the weeklies have a hold of the pattern

Aren't the weeklies run daily now?

[griteater]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Aren't the weeklies run daily now?

Yes