El Nino 2023-2024

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

You are going to get your push. Our ideas really aren’t that different, I’m just slightly higher with my trimonthly peak ONI estimate at +2.1C - +2.3C. Despite some incredibly bad info on twitter, this Nino event HAS NOT peaked nor is it going to rapidly fall apart. This DWKW and WWB mean business

 

 

 

 

You're overkill. Everyone needs to be objective. There's too much subjectivity your way & the other. The middle ground will win the day. 

[stadiumwave]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off

with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly

 

BINGO!!! I just do not think people are being honest with themselves. Too much desire for many to say "I told you so". The event is a hybrid type & not textbook anything,which is why the indexes are so skewed more with this event. 

[stadiumwave]

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No doubt in my mind that this warming event is going to be major or that Nino 3.4 will eclipse +2.0C this month, I also think there’s a good chance Nino 3 gets into the high +2C’s

 In addition, don’t leave out Nino 4. Look at how warm Nino 4 (150W to 160E, 5N to 5S) is now with nearly all of it 29C+, a whopping 70% of it 30C+, and a small part of the W portion (near Dateline) even getting to 31C+! The weighted average is clearly over 30C (likely ~30.1 to possibly as high as 30.2). I continue to think this is headed to a hybrid (EP/CP) Nino by winter. There’s too much warming in 3.4 and 4 in addition to 3 for it to remain EP too much longer imho.

[griteater]

Euro Seasonal shows a very ramped up and strong SPV here upcoming in Nov, then it undergoes notable weakening thru December into early January.  I like the Euro the most with its handling of stratosphere parameters.  Having said that, the Euro is more aggressive with this weakening than any other model currently.

 

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Seasonal shows a very ramped up and strong SPV here upcoming in Nov, then it undergoes notable weakening thru December into early January.  I like the Euro the most with its handling of stratosphere parameters.  Having said that, the Euro is more aggressive with this weakening than any other model currently.

 

 

 Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

[griteater]

42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run

The individual Copernicus models are spitting out some slightly varying solutions, but the JMA for Jan-Mar looks hawt here with split flow combined with big red over AK and the Yukon

[snowman19]

 In addition, don’t leave out Nino 4. Look at how warm Nino 4 (150W to 160E, 5N to 5S) is now with nearly all of it 29C+, a whopping 70% of it 30C+, and a small part of the W portion (near Dateline) even getting to 31C+! The weighted average is clearly over 30C (likely ~30.1 to possibly as high as 30.2). I continue to think this is headed to a hybrid (EP/CP) Nino by winter. There’s too much warming in 3.4 and 4 in addition to 3 for it to remain EP too much longer imho.

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

A super in 3.4, should it occur, would very likely mean a shift from EP to EP/CP for this winter.

[Itryatgolf70]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

The individual Copernicus models are spitting out some slightly varying solutions, but the JMA for Jan-Mar looks hawt here with split flow combined with big red over AK and the Yukon

I believe more moving parts this year than most to sort out. I definitely appreciate the people that take the time to create a winter outlook. They definitely aren't easy with so many moving parts. Like most on here, we hope for a colder outcome ultimately instead of the kicking the can down the road analogy lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off

with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly

This is why Roundy is behind the curve with respect to this event IMO....he is an expert on yesterday's climate. The Belicheck of the ENSO community.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

The individual Copernicus models are spitting out some slightly varying solutions, but the JMA for Jan-Mar looks hawt here with split flow combined with big red over AK and the Yukon

That is text-book eastern pants tent....that map is higher-end ceiling like potential.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why Roundy is behind the curve with respect to this event IMO....he is an expert on yesterday's climate. The Belicheck of the ENSO community.

He was wrong most of last winter also.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

He was wrong most of last winter also.

The best seasonal forecasters are wrong significantly more than they are right....I am not trying to shit on him.

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

inevitable? three consecutive trimonthly periods that average 2.0+? i wouldn’t consider that inevitable at all

[brooklynwx99]

like why does everything have to be so declarative? it makes no sense. it’s okay to not know what’s going to happen

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

It will hit 2.0 in the dailies, but not ONI.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, griteater said:

Meteo France subtropical jet stream for JFM

nice look above STL-DCA if there's any cold air around

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like why does everything have to be so declarative? it makes no sense. it’s okay to not know what’s going to happen

a lot of folks engaged in this sort of social media brand are not so much for enlightenment and advancement of personal understanding/curiosity fulfillment and/or fascination over the topics in play.  If they were, there would be a lot more humility in lieu of just rhetorical questions, or out right inquiry, and any statements would be more obviously supposition aimed at eliciting exchanges of ideas. 

Those that do the former are after something else, most likely about being recognized

[Itryatgolf70]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

a lot of folks engaged in this sort of social media brand are not so much for enlightenment and advancement of personal understanding/curiosity fulfillment and fascination over the topics in play.  If they were, there would be a lot more humility in lieu of just rhetorical questions or out right questions, and any statements would be more obviously supposition aimed at eliciting exchanges of ideas. 

Those that do the former are after something like being recognized

I agree. Most of it imo is about attention. Just like YouTube people post multiple videos about random stuff and all they care about or most care about is subscribers and likes. Some really don't know what the heck they are even talking about lol

[WestMichigan]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

Time to bust out the JB quote - "Delayed but not denied" 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Time to bust out the JB quote - "Delayed but not denied" 

Hopefully we won’t be hearing that this winter! Fingers crossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Clearly the trend is for +NAO December and negative NAO February, but can anyone elaborate on how exactly to interpret this graphic?

Does the bar extension represent spread?

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Clearly the trend is for +NAO December and negative NAO February, but can anyone elaborate on how exactly to interpret this graphic?

Does the bar extension represent spread?

They cover it at the bottom of the page:

 

The plots show:

• the actual model predictions in box and whisker form in purple: + the box represents the middle tercile, + the whiskers represent the upper and lower terciles (the limits of the whiskers are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the black line represents the median.
• the model climatology in box and whisker form in grey, + the box represents the middle tercile, + the whiskers represent the upper and lower terciles (the limits of the whiskers are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the black line represents the median
• the "hindcast" of the analysis distribution is shown by coloured bands: + orange band represents the middle tercile, + yellow band represents the upper and lower terciles (the limits are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the red line represents the median.

This presentation allows a quick visual estimation of whether the coming months are expected to see teleconnection indices that are higher or lower than average, and the degree of confidence in that prediction as revealed by the spread of the forecast distribution. 

[griteater]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

Good point and the current developing pattern in November of lower than normal surface pressure over Siberia and colder than normal temperatures in the lower strat also over Siberia tends to have some staying power and favors +AO in early winter.

[griteater]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It would be nice to know what model Roundy is posting for the 850 wind anomalies since it does matter. It looks like he's using the CFS comparing it to the CFS 850 wind anomalies (in color) at the link below, but that's a guess.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Those 850 wind anomalies are from the daily release of the Euro Weeklies from ECMWF - can get it toward the bottom of this page:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Extended (42 days)"]%2C"Type"%3A[]}

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

They cover it at the bottom of the page:

 

The plots show:

• the actual model predictions in box and whisker form in purple: + the box represents the middle tercile, + the whiskers represent the upper and lower terciles (the limits of the whiskers are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the black line represents the median.
• the model climatology in box and whisker form in grey, + the box represents the middle tercile, + the whiskers represent the upper and lower terciles (the limits of the whiskers are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the black line represents the median
• the "hindcast" of the analysis distribution is shown by coloured bands: + orange band represents the middle tercile, + yellow band represents the upper and lower terciles (the limits are the 5th and 95th percentiles), + the red line represents the median.

This presentation allows a quick visual estimation of whether the coming months are expected to see teleconnection indices that are higher or lower than average, and the degree of confidence in that prediction as revealed by the spread of the forecast distribution. 

Interesting that the spread is for more negative NAO in December, and its a large spread for such short term.

[GaWx]

 

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Note that this was initialized on Nov 1. On that date it and the weeklies had (as per the top map) the EPS mean (thick blue line) first drop below climo (black line) ~Dec 2nd. Since then the EPS has kicked the can somewhat and the EPS mean in yesterday’s run doesn’t drop it below climo til Dec 12th with it stronger in early Dec. Hopefully it won’t keep delaying it.

And now today’s EPS update delays dropping the SPV strength (based on 60N winds) under climo until Dec 16th, which is two weeks after what the Nov 1st run showed and four days after what yesterday’s run showed. 
 I’m wondering more and more if a potential bias toward an SPV weakening is in play. A mirage is often symptomatic of a bias. Is this just a mirage? Hopefully not and hopefully there is no SPV weakening bias:
 

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the Euro Weeklies are warm in the E US through at least 12/25/23 and with no sign of an impending change fwiw.

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

IMO 3.4 going super is inevitable at this point. Big subsurface push. The sea level anomaly and warm water volume are rising very fast and expanding now with the DWKW/WWBs and they have been ever since 10/30. We are on the verge of substantial strengthening/warming at the surface. This one is coming

 

It's only really super when it can sustain it on the ONI...3 mthn. Ain't happening.