El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

Meteo France subtropical jet stream for JFM

[griteater]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

About 75% done...has @griteaterupdated his MEI graphs after that abomination of an October value?

Shield you eyes, snowman lol

[so_whats_happening]

@GaWx

Im not sure if you knew but you can use two dates to compare here is a comparison of the two dates June 21st is the top and Nov 3rd is the bottom. I narrowed it down to only showing 100-180W and only the upper 300m.

[so_whats_happening]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:37 AM, griteater said:

Griteater’s Winter Outlook (23-24)

Link to PDF: Griteater's Winter Outlook (23-24).pdf - Google Drive

 

BTW just got the chance to read your forecast. Good insight and thanks for the MJO plot link. Best of luck on your forecast!

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

@GaWx

Im not sure if you knew but you can use two dates to compare here is a comparison of the two dates June 21st is the top and Nov 3rd is the bottom. I narrowed it down to only showing 100-180W and only the upper 300m.

Thanks. Nice! I was trying to do that but couldn’t figure out how.
 

 Looking closely at the comparison again, practically the entire volume from 180 to 125W is warmer on Nov 3rd vs June 21st. In much of this volume, it is 1C warmer with a large portion of the volume between 135W and 160W and 100-175m deep 2+ C warmer. That adds up to a lot of water that’s much warmer. OTOH, most of 100-125W between 50m and 125m is colder vs June 21st with it as much as 3.5 colder near 100W within 60-90 m of depth.
 

 So, indeed that E water in a portion of the upper depths is colder with some much colder. But that colder volume is <10% of all of the water vs ~65% (~7 times as much water) that is warmer. So, despite some of the colder anomalies being up to 3.5 colder vs the warmer being no warmer than 2.5 warmer, it isn’t nearly enough to overcome the warmer water. That’s why I feel Nov 3rd is overall significantly warmer than June 21st on TAO.

[so_whats_happening]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Nice! I was trying to do that but couldn’t figure out how.
 

 Looking closely at the comparison again, practically the entire volume from 180 to 125W is warmer on Nov 3rd vs June 21st. In much of this volume, it is 1C warmer with a large portion of the volume between 135W and 160W and 100-175m deep 2+ C warmer. That adds up to a lot of water that’s much warmer. OTOH, most of 100-125W between 50m and 125m is colder vs June 21st with it as much as 3.5 colder near 100W within 60-90 m of depth.
 

 So, indeed that E water in a portion of the upper depths is colder with some much colder. But that colder volume is <10% of all of the water vs ~65% (~7 times as much water) that is warmer. So, despite some of the colder anomalies being up to 3.5 colder vs the warmer being no warmer than 2.5 warmer, it isn’t nearly enough to overcome the warmer water. That’s why I feel Nov 3rd is overall significantly warmer than June 21st on TAO.

Again I get where you are coming from but it is not there yet as for overall OHC value when comparing the two June is still higher even with it placed differently. Here is August 25 in comparison to Nov 3 which if using CPC OHC chart end of August peaked at just about 1.25 area which right now we are just under 1.2.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Again I get where you are coming from but it is not there yet as for overall OHC value when comparing the two June is still higher even with it placed differently. Here is August 25 in comparison to Nov 3 which if using CPC OHC chart end of August peaked at just about 1.25 area which right now we are just under 1.2.

 Aug 25th looks a little warmer than June 21st. However, I still have Nov 3rd a decent amount warmer than Aug 25th with most of the W half warmer (some much warmer) and a smaller area colder (mainly eastern 25% within the upper 100 m). 
 
 Yeah, I realize that the CPC OHC chart is a bit warmer in late Aug vs 11/3 (+1.25 vs just under +1.20). The comparisons for those two dates for NOAA (warmer) vs TAO (cooler imho) aren’t in sync and you even said there’s no reason the two different datasets have to be in sync.

[so_whats_happening]

Keep expanding those waters and dip the thermocline more and we will match June soon enough. It looks like maybe getting close to +2C anomaly in 3.4 toward the middle to end of month is getting more likely. Again sustainability is in question but if we do get a little burst of a +AAM atmosphere mode like we saw back in March and May it could lead to the positive push that has been talked about. The hope is the Westerlies do not die before then, otherwise it will just be another quick spike.

Here is just a four day difference in GFS modeled Hovmollers you can see the area across Nino regions is opening up a bit which should allow the warming to start up again. The overall WWB is weaker than what was originally forecasted just four days earlier not a thing you wanna see a weakening WWB as we get closer. The IOD region is the one that is far more noticeable in change as we head to the end of the month. Maybe a fluke run but that would be an ending of trades across that region.

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Aug 25th looks a little warmer than June 21st. However, I still have Nov 3rd a decent amount warmer than Aug 25th with most of the W half warmer (some much warmer) and a smaller area colder (mainly eastern 25% within the upper 100 m). 
 
 Yeah, I realize that the CPC OHC chart is a bit warmer in late Aug vs 11/3 (+1.25 vs just under +1.20). The comparisons for those two dates for NOAA (warmer) vs TAO (cooler imho) aren’t in sync.

Again covering a 5N to 5S will be different than covering a 2N to 2S in a region. I can easily stop posting TAO data if that is what you are hinting at and simply go off an OHC chart.

There are bound to be differences between the two different sources I don't understand the discrepancy here other than the two not in sync which again makes sense since they are not covering the same areas equally. If CPC did in fact cover 2N to 2S then by all means rip apart TAO data but they are not the same in coverage area.

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Again covering a 5N to 5S will be different than covering a 2N to 2S in a region. I can easily stop posting TAO data if that is what you are hinting at and simply go off an OHC chart.

There are bound to be differences between the two different sources I don't understand the discrepancy here other than the two not in sync which again makes sense since they are not covering the same areas equally. If CPC did in fact cover 2N to 2S then by all means rip apart TAO data but they are not the same in coverage area.

 I’m not trying to rip TAO at all. I love the TAO site and the ability to graph it with so many options. It is fantastic and I love your animations. Please keep them coming! I’m not good with that type of thing and thus really appreciate you posting them. And I like both the CPC OHC chart and the CPC monthly table. I like it all. When I say they’re not in sync, I’m not saying that to rip any of the datasets. Im just noting it for discussion purposes as we try to figure out whether or not the OHC top is in using the various datasets.
 
 I did email someone with NOAA asking if the monthly table is based on 5N to 5S. I’ll post about it if I get an answer.

[so_whats_happening]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not trying to rip TAO at all. I love the TAO site and the ability to graph it with so many options. It is fantastic and I love your animations. Please keep them coming! And I like both the CPC OHC chart and the CPC monthly table. I like it all. When I say they’re not in sync, I’m not saying that to rip any of the datasets. Im just noting it for discussion purposes as we try to figure out whether or not the OHC top is in using the various datasets.
 
 I did email someone with NOAA asking if the monthly table is based on 5N to 5S. I’ll post about it if I get an answer.

This was located under the ENSO page in the red writing under subsurface tropical Pacific analysis. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

Has a good bit of past data to about 1979-Present, it has a Pentad data and this is what I found for a cross examination between August 26 and Nov 4th of directly at the equator. I can only go back three months as of checking it out now, can dive in more to finding further back dates. If we had more solid anomalies in the eastern Pac with the current DWKW temps I would say we probably would have been near the June highs but the eastern regions continue to cool. This probably gives a better look to OHC from the perspective of CPC because it is from their site. Definitely a book mark worthy site.

This is specifically at the Equator and can not change the domain to be 2 N/S or 5 N/S cross section.

[so_whats_happening]

Here is an above look at the averaged 300m anomalies across the globe. You can see the westward shift in OHC and differences in coverage versus max/min points.

[thunderbolt]

As we've discussed extensively in our recent client reports and Webinars, while ocean temperatures are suggestive of a strong El Nino event, the atmospheric response in the central/eastern tropical Pacific looks nothing like other recent strong El Nino events.  Here, you can see the tropical atmospheric response, illustrated by the 200 mb velocity potential, from the month of October for 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023.

You don't have to completely comprehend what the heck velocity potential is to see that the 2023 event has a much weaker, more smeared signal in the central/eastern tropical Pacific than the other events did.  The previous events were characterized by strong rising motion (blues/purples) east of the dateline, while the current event is characterized by weaker rising motion closer to the dateline.
tweet from Todd Crawford

[jbenedet]

Just a passing observation but this upcoming significant storm in Texas this weekend looks like the first vestiges of a high end moderate El Niño flexing in the CONUS. Delayed but not denied. It’s not different this time.
 

The early cold anomalies in the northeast is a headfake for those who live in that region. CPC has it right.

[snowman19]

Two points, #1 Expanding upon what @jbenedet just posted, you don’t see a raging STJ in Nina’s or uncoupled Nino events:

#2 This WWB is getting stronger:

[mitchnick]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Two points, #1 Expanding upon what @jbenedet just posted, you don’t see a raging STJ in Nina’s or uncoupled Nino events:
 

 

#2 This WWB is getting stronger:

 

 

 

 

 

It would be nice to know what model Roundy is posting for the 850 wind anomalies since it does matter. It looks like he's using the CFS comparing it to the CFS 850 wind anomalies (in color) at the link below, but that's a guess.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It would be nice to know what model Roundy is posting for the 850 wind anomalies since it does matter. It looks like he's using the CFS comparing it to the CFS 850 wind anomalies (in color) at the link below, but that's a guess.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

Yeah.. I don’t really follow 850mb wind anoms in the tropics because all the models show something completely different even for the same runs. What gets posted here is often different from what I see on the model sites. So I gave up on following this

[snowman19]

A very well coupled +IOD/El Nino system in place. With continued Nino strengthening, they are only going to continue constructively interfering with each other

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Keep expanding those waters and dip the thermocline more and we will match June soon enough. It looks like maybe getting close to +2C anomaly in 3.4 toward the middle to end of month is getting more likely. Again sustainability is in question but if we do get a little burst of a +AAM atmosphere mode like we saw back in March and May it could lead to the positive push that has been talked about. The hope is the Westerlies do not die before then, otherwise it will just be another quick spike.

Here is just a four day difference in GFS modeled Hovmollers you can see the area across Nino regions is opening up a bit which should allow the warming to start up again. The overall WWB is weaker than what was originally forecasted just four days earlier not a thing you wanna see a weakening WWB as we get closer. The IOD region is the one that is far more noticeable in change as we head to the end of the month. Maybe a fluke run but that would be an ending of trades across that region.

This is accounted for in assuming a range of 1.7 to 1.9 ONI, IMO....we NEED another push to get that-

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, griteater said:

Meteo France subtropical jet stream for JFM

 

10 hours ago, griteater said:

Is it just me, or are these images not showing up for others? Both desktop and laptop....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Strange...I get them on my cell, though. 

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Strange...I get them on my cell, though. 

Will fix here shortly. Guess it’s an issue with the link to the photo hosting site

[snowman19]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is accounted for in assuming a range of 1.7 to 1.9 ONI, IMO....we NEED another push to get that-

You are going to get your push. Our ideas really aren’t that different, I’m just slightly higher with my trimonthly peak ONI estimate at +2.1C - +2.3C. Despite some incredibly bad info on twitter, this Nino event HAS NOT peaked nor is it going to rapidly fall apart. This DWKW and WWB mean business

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, griteater said:

Will fix here shortly. Guess it’s an issue with the link to the photo hosting site

NBD, just uploaded via cell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You are going to get your push. Our ideas really aren’t that different, I’m just slightly higher with my peak ONI estimate at +2.1C - +2.3C. Despite some incredibly bad info on twitter, this Nino event HAS NOT peaked nor is it going to rapidly fall apart. This DWKW and WWB mean business

 

 

 

 

Yea, we agree for the most part.....winter won't be very cold and el Nino has not peaked, but it is close IMO. The major WWB is to the west....the one coming east isn't that big of a deal. This is the final push.

The thrust of warmer subsurface is still mainly west IMO.

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A very well coupled +IOD/El Nino system in place. With continued Nino strengthening, they are only going to continue constructively interfering with each other

Looks more like the -AAM and -PDO are destructively interfering with the El Niño holding it back from going super like some of the more aggressive models were forecasting.

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/966/why-is-the-warm-phase-of-the-pacific-decadal-oscillation-associated-with-stronge

According to the State Climate Office of North Carolina webpage Global Patterns - Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), experts believe

the PDO can intensify or diminish the impacts of ENSO according to its phase. If both ENSO and the PDO are in the same phase, it is believed that El Niño/La Niña impacts may be magnified. Conversely, if ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, it has been proposed that they may offset one another, preventing "true" ENSO impacts from occurring.

Essentially, almost analogous to constructive and destructive interference in sound.

 

[GaWx]

 TAO has warmed considerably since Oct., and this is the warmest I can recall this Nino. This is the first time this Nino I remember seeing +3.0C anywhere on this map. (Keep in mind this map is to the W of Nino 1+2.) It is as far west as ~108W (centered near 2S), which is within the E portion of Nino 3. The +2.5C anomaly now gets well into the E portion of Nino 3.4 (to ~138W). The +2.0C gets as far W as ~172W, which is just past Nino 3.4 and well into Nino 4. 

 So, Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 all look about the warmest on TAO yet this season:

Nov 5-9: +3.0 to 108W, +2.5 to 138W, +2.0 to 172W

 

Oct 1-31: No +3.0, +2.5 only to 125W, +2.0 only to 150W:

[brooklynwx99]

C3S is still insistent on a more CP-type pattern as we head into the back half of winter. looks better than the October run

[snowman19]

 TAO has warmed considerably since Oct., and this is the warmest I can recall this Nino. This is the first time I remember seeing +3.0C anywhere on this map. (Keep in mind this map is to the W of Nino 1+2.) It is as far east as ~108W (centered near 2S), which is within the E portion of Nino 3. The +2.5C anomaly now gets well into the E portion of Nino 3.4 (to ~138W). The +2.0C gets as far W as ~172W, which is just past Nino 3.4 and well into Nino 4. 

 So, Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 all look about the warmest on TAO yet this season:
Nov 5-9:

 
Oct 1-31: No +3.0, +2.5 only to 125W, +2.0 only to 150W:

No doubt in my mind that this warming event is going to be major or that Nino 3.4 will eclipse +2.0C this month, I also think there’s a good chance Nino 3 gets into the high +2C’s

[brooklynwx99]

i’m still not sure why people are so engrained in one camp. this is an event in a changing world and there’s something a bit off

with all of the CC discussion and how it’s messing with everything, people vehemently insisting that this is a textbook event is kinda silly