El Nino 2023-2024

[so_whats_happening]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Belie is the latest, the 5 day average centered on 11/7/23 with it cropped to only go down to 300m. Looking at 100-180W (most of this) and assuming this is based on the same data that the daily graph of 100-180W OHC uses, it appears to me that there’s a good shot at a new high on the graph of this Nino within the next few weeks. I wouldn’t all be shocked if +1.50 is reached. The current high is near +1.35 set in mid June.

Maybe you see what a +2C looked like back in 1991 we have some work to get it higher. If we do indeed see the strength of the WWB shown I would expect some more warming to occur. The trick of it all is to see continual WWB and have them propagate eastward. The WWB action need to not necessarily be the strength they were when initiated but to have constant weakening of trades further east, as of now that is not showing up. Ill do a comparison of charts then when we start to get closer to the peak WWB.

I do believe these are fairly close to what the OHC numbers look like from NOAA. Also it is not 5 day average to the date shown, the date shown is the last of the 5 day period. I do every 2 days to account for some changes to not be missed and show a better progression, except on archive data where it puts me at 5 day intervals already.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea it has been quite dry still,  thought we turned the corner back in July where we nearly doubled monthly totals and even through September we were solidly getting rain but October just hit a wall after the first week. This may still be the influence of a strong -PDO in place the battle between the two has been showing up since March. 

Yeah, the record -PDO warm pool near Japan continues to make headlines there.

 

 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the record -PDO warm pool near Japan continues to make headlines there.

 

 

That is something else. 80 degree temps and being 15-20 above average in locations is impressive for November. Looks like the pattern we had in October set up over there in the early portion of November.

[snowman19]

Interesting….

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

That is something else. 80 degree temps and being 15-20 above average in locations is impressive for November. Looks like the pattern we had in October set up over there in the early portion of November.

Some of the strongest ocean heat uptake around the planet near Japan and the Northeast US  in the last decade. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42468-z
 

[snowman19]

***ALERT!!! ALERT!!!****

[brooklynwx99]

nothing says “strongly coupled” like interfering factors that have mostly flipped

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nothing says “strongly coupled” like interfering factors that have mostly flipped

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far.

I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far.

I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline. 

I just think it mostly means we’ve peaked.

we’ll see about those wwbs east of the dateline starting nov 15, but hard to say if that will move the needle

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far.

I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline. 

Plus these WWBs haven’t been that strong compared to past El Niño events. While they looked impressive on the hovmoller charts, they were much weaker than past WWBs this time of year. So the OKWs and upper ocean heat haven’t  been very impressive. This prevents the Nino 3.4 SSTs from sustaining a strong enough rise to push past the +2.0 barrier for at least 4 consecutive weeks. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far.

I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline. 

 

 

It's mostly the lack of OHC in the upper subsurface (bluewave has been showing this too for many weeks)....compared to other Super Ninos, this event is seriously lagging in that department....which is why every time we've seen all this hype about another WWB or kelvin wave, the SSTA response has been tepid at best.

This evetn will probably warm a bit more, but getting very hard to see path for enough warming to qualify as a Super Nino on ONI.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Plus these WWBs haven’t been that strong compared to past El Niño events. While they looked impressive on the hovmoller charts, they were much weaker than past WWBs this time of year. So the OKWs and upper ocean heat hasn’t been very impressive. This prevents the Nino 3.4 SSTs from sustaining a strong enough rise to push past the +2.0 barrier for at least 4 consecutive weeks. 

 

And that’s not the worst thing. We (well, I) don’t want a super nino. It’s a hit vs miss gamble for one HECS, and if we whiff it’s yet another ratter. Besides the last 3 times we had a super nino, we had triple dip La Ninas right after. So I’m not rooting for a super, personally. And I agree with you that we don’t get there. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting….
 

I was on board with a historic super nino too, but the data doesn’t support that anymore. The ONI graph in particular is misleading, as the 2023 El Niño event began diverging from the super events after September. 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 all were above 2.0 by now. Right now it’s evolving more like a slightly stronger version of 57-58 than the super events. Don’t get me wrong, this nino is far from weak. It’s looking more like a +1.8-1.9 peak than a +2.3 or higher though.

[so_whats_happening]

A look at the last week only there is something funky holding on around 120W and about 100-150m below the surface just not allowing a dip in the thermocline. From the last push of cooler waters in this region we have had this keeping things different in the subsurface compared to what we would see in a DWKW situation. I'm not entirely sure what the reason for this feature, it has been a thing since back in March. Is this due to the further west than typical WWB placement and strength this year?

[snowman19]

Not only no effect, but it's going the wrong way so far.
I still think the problem is the failure of strong westerlies to bust through east of the dateline. 

So your forecast is this Nino has already peaked, no more warming/strengthening/coupling from here on out. The WWBs and DWKWs are not going east of the dateline and they are going to have no effect, the entire event is going the wrong way. Got it. Good luck with that. I wish you God speed with your forecast

[brooklynwx99]

so triggered lmao

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Maybe you see what a +2C looked like back in 1991 we have some work to get it higher. If we do indeed see the strength of the WWB shown I would expect some more warming to occur. The trick of it all is to see continual WWB and have them propagate eastward. The WWB action need to not necessarily be the strength they were when initiated but to have constant weakening of trades further east, as of now that is not showing up. Ill do a comparison of charts then when we start to get closer to the peak WWB.

I do believe these are fairly close to what the OHC numbers look like from NOAA. Also it is not 5 day average to the date shown, the date shown is the last of the 5 day period. I do every 2 days to account for some changes to not be missed and show a better progression, except on archive data where it puts me at 5 day intervals already.

 There appears to be a disconnect between these TAO/Triton depth graphs and the time series OHC graph. Otherwise, the Nov 3-7 averaged OHC would now be significantly warmer than the June OHC, which per the time series OHC is the warmest full month so far.

 Compare the two depth charts below. Compared to June, the only portion of 100W-180 on Nov 3-7 that is cooler is 100-120W from 0 to 125m depth. Otherwise, 120W-180 from 0 to 300m is significantly warmer on Nov 3-7 vs June.

Nov 3-7th:

 

June 1-30:

[snowman19]

so triggered lmao

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There appears to be a disconnect between these TAO/Triton depth graphs and the time series OHC graph. Otherwise, the Nov 3-7 averaged OHC would now be significantly warmer than the June OHC, which per the time series OHC is the warmest full month so far.

 Compare the two depth charts below. Compared to June, the only portion of 100W-180 on the June graph that is cooler is 100-120W from 0 to 125m depth. Otherwise, 120W-180 from 0 to 300m of is significantly warmer on Nov 3-7 vs June.

Nov 3-7th:

 

June 1-30:

Using this webpage from CPC website for the OHC upper 300m.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

You can take a look at 1991 where it had an OHC around 1.22 for 100-180W and this was the look.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that one single month might not tell the whole story, but this event has behaved differently in that department for pretty much the entire late summer and fall. it isn't just one month. the differences over South America are especially glaring

[brooklynwx99]

this is what i mean when I said that there isn't convincing anyone at this point. there's nothing you can show to get people off the canonical super Nino bandwagon if they're already on it. sunk cost fallacy i guess

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Using this webpage from CPC website for the OHC upper 300m.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

You can take a look at 1991 where it had an OHC around 1.22 for 100-180W and this was the look.

I’ll come back to that. But please address what I just posted, which clearly shows that Nov 3-7th of 2023 is warmer than June 1-30 of 2023 on the depth charts. That tells me that there’s a disconnect. Do you see what I’m saying?

[griteater]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that one single month might not tell the whole story, but this event has behaved differently in that department for pretty much the entire late summer and fall. it isn't just one month. the differences over South America are especially glaring

Ha, yeah, he was right in saying that ENSO is best viewed in a multi-month sense, but in the end, it actually hurt his own argument for this year 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’ll come back to that. But please address what I just posted, which clearly shows that Nov 3-7th of 2023 is warmer than June 1-30 of 2023 on the depth charts.

just look on that site and see what it was from cpc for June. 1.4 intensity was more in June than November subsurface coverage about the same.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

just look on that site and see what it was from cpc for june. 1.4 intensity was more in june then november coverage about the same.

I don’t think you’re seeing what I’m seeing. I would post a gif animation of the two, but it is way too fast when I do it. Do you know how to slow down a gif animation from IPhone gallery still images?

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Ha, yeah, he was right in saying that ENSO is best viewed in a multi-month sense, but in the end, it actually hurt his own argument for this year 

so I've learned from many of the proponents of a strong-super canonical EP event that a one month VP mean isn't great because it doesn't take variability into account, but that a multi-month VP mean isn't good either because it smooths MJO pulses out

so which one is it? might as well throw tropical forcing out the window as if it isn't one of the most important mechanisms for our weather lmao

[so_whats_happening]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I don’t think you’re seeing what I’m seeing. I would post a gif animation of the two, but it is way too fast when I do it. Do you know how to slow down a gif animation from IPhone gallery still images?

These were a 1.4C anomaly from the same website on October 1991, September 2002. This was the time period at the end of April that had a peak almost exactly where the graph shows for OHC currently.

[weatherwiz]

In my endeavors regarding the IOD, I came across this. Not sure if anyone is familiar with this but this is a pretty sick site

https://www.jamstec.go.jp/virtualearth/general/en/index.html#SINTEX/DJF2024/SINTEX_wind/SINTEX_wind/mean/all/orthographic=-221.21,34.27,773

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

These were a 1.4C anomaly from the same website on October 1991, September 2002. This was the time period at the end of April that had a peak almost exactly where the graph shows for OHC.

 I’ll come back to comparisons to past El Niños later. But I’m first asking you to compare Nov 3-7 of 2023 to June of 2023, which is what I showed in my post done ~45 minutes ago. The Nov 3-7 depth chart showing 100W to 180 from 0 to 300m is significantly warmer overall than that for June. The only portion that was cooler on the Nov 3-7 is 100-120W in the uppermost 125m, which is only ~10% of the volume. ~70% of the volume is warmer on Nov 3-7. The other ~20% is about the same. 

 How could the Nov 3-7th depth be so much warmer than June when June is by a good margin the warmest month of 2023 to date per the OHC time series graph? They don’t appear to be in synch, which is the point I’m making.