El Nino 2023-2024

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone know off-hand if this is the best or preferred source for historical IOD data?

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s true, it doesn’t always translate but I would rather see a favorable pattern in November than an unfavorable one. The strong nino -PDO combination historically has been unfavorable for cold in the east. We need the polar region to cooperate, and the early signs aren’t looking too great for that. 

The -PDO is the main issue right now. Nearly every winter since 1950 following a -PDO October lower than -1 has gone on to average negative during the winter also. So there is a strong fall to winter PDO correlation. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -PDO is the main issue right now. Nearly every winter since 1950 following a -PDO October lower than -1 has gone on to average negative during the winter also. So there is a strong fall to winter PDO correlation. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

 

Guess we hope the PDO doesn't couple then

[stadiumwave]

 

[Itryatgolf70]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Are those cold signals for us if he is correct or warm?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The -PDO is the main issue right now. Nearly every winter since 1950 following a -PDO October lower than -1 has gone on to average negative during the winter also. So there is a strong fall to winter PDO correlation. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 

 

1. I’m still hoping for a rise to a modest -PDO for DJF averaged. There have been three cool to cold E US Nino winters with a modest -PDO: 1911-12 (-0.40), 1957-8 (-0.28), and 1968-9 (-0.74).

2. We can always hope for something like 1939, which had a massive PDO rise that went from -1.49 in Oct to a +1.60 in DJF:

1.17 -0.10 -0.63 0.03 0.12 -0.07 -1.10 -1.31 -1.54 -1.49 -0.90 1.44

1940 1.82 1.55

1939-40 was a very cold E US winter

[stadiumwave]

Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

Are those cold signals for us if he is correct or warm?

 

Looks good to me. I'd take that DEC anyday verses what a Nino DEC can be. 

[Itryatgolf70]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Looks good to me. I'd take that DEC anyday verses what a Nino DEC can be. 

Guess he is going with the -AAM atmosphere and typically December's can sometimes be cold in those. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. I’m still hoping for a rise to a modest -PDO for DJF averaged. There have been three cool to cold E US Nino winters with a modest -PDO like 1911-12 (-0.40), 1957-8 (-0.28), and 1968-9 (-0.74).

2. We can always hope for something like 1939, which had a massive PDO rise that went from -1.49 in Oct to a +1.60 in DJF:

1.17 -0.10 -0.63 0.03 0.12 -0.07 -1.10 -1.31 -1.54 -1.49 -0.90 1.44

1940 1.82 1.55

1939-40 was a very cold E US winter

Time sensitive - WCS daily PDO holding at -0.88. 

Looking at the ensembles, I expect it to hold around there or touch -1 again, then rise after that.

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Are those cold signals for us if he is correct or warm?

Looks cold for the south but not particularly cold for northern tier…esp N plains. Northeast might be near normal in that type of look which would be good enough to produce some good snow threats when you have an active STJ. 
 

But often, the devil’s in the details. If the positive height anomalies in Canada are pushed a little further north, then it quickly becomes a colder look for the northern tier….and likewise, if pushed south, it becomes a warmer look for everyone. 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Time sensitive - WCS daily PDO holding at -0.88. 

Looking at the ensembles, I expect it to hold around there or touch -1 again, then rise after that.

For those who don’t know, keep in mind that this is the WCS OISST based PDO. I love following it because it updates daily and we can get an early idea about trends. But the monthly table that @bluewave and I are referring to is the NOAA ERSST table found here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 The values in this NOAA table have been much more negative for the entire year. It had Oct at -2.36 whereas the WCS OISST averaged out at ~-1.00 for Oct. So, WCS is probably in the general vicinity of -2.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

For those who don’t know, keep in mind that this is the WCS OISST based PDO. I love following it because it updates daily and we can get an early idea about trends. But the monthly table that @bluewave and I are referring to is the NOAA ERSST table found here:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

 The values in this NOAA table have been much more negative for the entire year. It had Oct at -2.36 whereas the WCS OISST averaged out at ~-1.00 for Oct. So, WCS is probably in the general vicinity of -2.

I don’t know about the NOAA data for real-time monitoring because it’s monthly and I would think there is some kind of lag. 

I mean if the big pdo rise is not showing in that dataset, it may either mean its a month behind or something isn’t right with their data

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t know about the NOAA data for real-time monitoring because it’s monthly and I would think there is some kind of lag. 

I mean if the big pdo rise is not showing in that dataset, it may either mean its a month behind or something isn’t right with their data

  I realize the NOAA data can’t be used for real time since it updates only after the end of each month. Thus, if there’s a big PDO rise, we’d get a much earlier hint from WCS than from NOAA since the changes correlate pretty well. That’s why I love this newly discovered WCS chart.

 I’m wild guessing that if there were an actual NOAA daily (something we can’t see) that it probably now would be ~~-2 rather than ~~-1 based on WCS being ~-1. If it is, say, -2, that would mean a big rise from Sep, when the NOAA table’s month averaged way down at -2.97. That means some of the Sep dailies had to have been sub -3. So, if NOAA dailies really are now ~-2, that would mean NOAA also has risen substantially since Sep.

[griteater]

I'm going to go ahead and launch a pre-emptive strike here as P Roundy is using the word "extraordinary" to describe the next westerly wind burst in the forecast charts.  Seems like we've been using those types of terms most of this year, but the big push into Super just hasn't been realized to date.

 

I was scanning the historical Nino 3.4 charts since the early 80's on StormVista, and one year that rose sharply late was 1991.  It rose a full degree from early November to early January.

 

Here is a westerly wind burst in the timeframe of Nov 15 - Dec 31, 1991

 

 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'm going to go ahead and launch a pre-emptive strike here as P Roundy is using the word "extraordinary" to describe the next westerly wind burst in the forecast charts.  Seems like we've been using those types of terms most of this year, but the big push into Super just hasn't been realized to date.

 

I was scanning the historical Nino 3.4 charts since the early 80's on StormVista, and one year that rose sharply late was 1991.  It rose a full degree from early November to early January.

 

Here is a westerly wind burst in the timeframe of Nov 15 - Dec 31, 1991

 

 

I hope Nino 3.4 warms a few tenths during the next couple of weeks without Nino 3 warming as much so as to move the Nino a little bit toward/away from CP/EP. The OHC has been steadily warming in recent weeks. So, that may give it an extra boost.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The bolded has been said a bunch during our cold Novembers. “The pattern is going to flip to warm once winter starts” was the most popular. 
 

Honestly, I’ve seen both happen where the pattern locks in during November for many weeks well into winter and other times where it flips. 

Yup. Same here.

[griteater]

@stadiumwave I want to get on board with Roundy's lowpass tool here...I like the concept...but it's always seemed to end up a bit off the mark when I've looked at it / tried to use it (others may have had more success with it).

In this particular case, the thing that looks off to me is that the tool is going with a more east-based look with the lowpass / base state convection in blue there centered farther east than what we've seen this summer and fall, and what is forecasted on the Euro Seasonal (2nd image).  This is important as the end result in Roundy's tool is showing the big, east-based Aleutian Low look with above normal heights over the Great Lakes and SE Canada like 82-83 / 97-98.  I suppose it's still possible for us to go in that direction if we were to have a last gasp major push like Nov/Dec 1991, but I don't think that will materialize.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

1. I’m still hoping for a rise to a modest -PDO for DJF averaged. There have been three cool to cold E US Nino winters with a modest -PDO: 1911-12 (-0.40), 1957-8 (-0.28), and 1968-9 (-0.74).

2. We can always hope for something like 1939, which had a massive PDO rise that went from -1.49 in Oct to a +1.60 in DJF:

1.17 -0.10 -0.63 0.03 0.12 -0.07 -1.10 -1.31 -1.54 -1.49 -0.90 1.44

1940 1.82 1.55

1939-40 was a very cold E US winter

Yeah, The -PDO ridge NW of Hawaii has been a dominant feature since 16-17.  This tends to place a trough in the Western US and a ridge near the East. Last January even had the SW trough with a +PNA over the top. So I am hoping that we get a lucky uncoupled month or two like we got it 20-21 and January 22. I would gladly take my chances with a well coupled strong to even super El Niño without La Niña background interference. Just give me a clean STJ with no overpowering northern stream and some blocking. Don’t mind warmth as long as we get some good snowstorms. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year

 ??  We were referring to patterns. If a pattern was exactly same as late 70s in how it would still be below normal in today's climate. Otherwise, could go either way as far as winter. HLB I think is our main ticket we need this year. 

[stadiumwave]

21 minutes ago, griteater said:

@stadiumwave I want to get on board with Roundy's lowpass tool here...I like the concept...but it's always seemed to end up a bit off the mark when I've looked at it / tried to use it (others may have had more success with it).

In this particular case, the thing that looks off to me is that the tool is going with a more east-based look with the lowpass / base state convection in blue there centered farther east than what we've seen this summer and fall, and what is forecasted on the Euro Seasonal (2nd image).  This is important as the end result in Roundy's tool is showing the big, east-based Aleutian Low look with above normal heights over the Great Lakes and SE Canada like 82-83 / 97-98.  I suppose it's still possible for us to go in that direction if we were to have a last gasp major push like Nov/Dec 1991, but I don't think that will materialize.

 

I love Paul, but I've noticed the same with his tools. 

And he has been using big adjectives about the Nino with everything that occurs (+IOD, last wind burst...etc.) & its resulted in pretty much nothing each time. I wonder why he's not being a little more cautious with his descriptive terms? He's not usually the "hype" type. 

[griteater]

3 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I love Paul, but I've noticed the same with his tools. 

And he has been using big adjectives about the Nino with everything that occurs (+IOD, last wind burst...etc.) & its resulted in pretty much nothing each time. I wonder why he's not being a little more cautious with his descriptive terms? He's not usually the "hype" type. 

Agree. It’s almost like he’s pushing for a certain outcome cause that’s what he predicted all along, but I don’t know 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, griteater said:

Agree. It’s almost like he’s pushing for a certain outcome cause that’s what he predicted all along, but I don’t know 

Before you posted this, in light of the "passion " exhibited by some on X, I  started wondering (as crazy as it may sound) if people are gambling on the Niño numbers and trying to move the betting lines.

[stadiumwave]

 

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully we can get enough of an El Niño atmospheric response this winter for a decent STJ. Right now we are seeing a very La Niña-like flash drought over portions of the Southeast. Record driest fall so far in locations that usually see this during years heading into La Niña winters. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Chattanooga Area, TN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Nov 7	Missing Count
1	2023-11-07	0.42	0
2	1938-11-07	1.68	0
3	2016-11-07	1.71	0
4	1939-11-07	2.10	0
5	1931-11-07	2.24	0
6	1998-11-07	2.32	0
7	1978-11-07	2.39	0
-	1891-11-07	2.39	0
8	1886-11-07	2.53	0
9	1904-11-07	2.64	0
10	2005-11-07	2.68	0
-	1922-11-07	2.68	0

Yea it has been quite dry still,  thought we turned the corner back in July where we nearly doubled monthly totals and even through September we were solidly getting rain but October just hit a wall after the first week. This may still be the influence of a strong -PDO in place the battle between the two has been showing up since March. 

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s update of this OHC graph has been revised significantly warmer for late Oct/early Nov with it suggesting it has risen back to ~+1.2 and rising further. Let’s see if it later exceeds the earlier two peaks as the most recent animation provided by @so_whats_happeningsuggested to me could possibly occur soon:

Yes it has been increasing slowly even with how solid the WWB's have been. Here is the latest look the area around 120W and about 150m down is still causing some issues with the thermocline changing up and taking on a more typical El Nino look of exceedingly warm anomalies in that region. This is the graph setup I have thrown together of this El Nino thus far, didn't really move much of a needle in October even with the second half featuring the the downwelling Kelvin wave. I do expect it to continue to warm but not drastically as of right now.

[csnavywx]

Yeah, nice thermocline flattener. Next set of WWBs should actually be strong enough to invert the thermocline slope and start the appearance of significant negative anomalies W of 180.

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

I'm going to go ahead and launch a pre-emptive strike here as P Roundy is using the word "extraordinary" to describe the next westerly wind burst in the forecast charts.  Seems like we've been using those types of terms most of this year, but the big push into Super just hasn't been realized to date.

 

I was scanning the historical Nino 3.4 charts since the early 80's on StormVista, and one year that rose sharply late was 1991.  It rose a full degree from early November to early January.

 

Here is a westerly wind burst in the timeframe of Nov 15 - Dec 31, 1991

 

 

So looking back at 1991 we had some weakening of trade winds that started back in September, probably even before that, across much of the Pacific basin so we started the DWKW process around mid September we had a two week period around the beginning to middle of October that featured less WWB action but it picked right back up in earnest going into Halloween and as you posted November. That is nearly 3 months worth of continual east propagating WWB action from September to November/December. We currently have our event around 150E and it has lasted about a month thus far it is possible to see a spike and not sure if that would happen or not yet but here was the subsurface from about mid September onward to the new year. There is a fairly similar look in the subsurface just different placement and overall intensity differs between this year and 1991 so far.

Key notes we saw a whole ENSO region moderate WWB event at the beginning of September that started the process we saw a weakening of this as we went into October before picking back up in early November and lasting into the new year. OHC continued to rise another .7C, after the slow down in October area was around 1.2C for 180-100W, topping out at around 2C in January with a peak in January at a trimonthly of 1.7 with a peak 3.4 at 1.89C.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Spilled soda on my laptop yesterday...what a disaster. My work may go into the wknd now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Saw the SCE was about normal...anyone have the SAI?

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Saw the SCE was about normal...anyone have the SAI?

About normal after accelerating during the last few days of Oct.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

So looking back at 1991 we had some weakening of trade winds that started back in September, probably even before that, across much of the Pacific basin so we started the DWKW process around mid September we had a two week period around the beginning to middle of October that featured less WWB action but it picked right back up in earnest going into Halloween and as you posted November. That is nearly 3 months worth of continual east propagating WWB action from September to November/December. We currently have our event around 150E and it has lasted about a month thus far it is possible to see a spike and not sure if that would happen or not yet but here was the subsurface from about mid September onward to the new year. There is a fairly similar look in the subsurface just different placement and overall intensity differs between this year and 1991 so far.

Key notes we saw a whole ENSO region moderate WWB event at the beginning of September that started the process we saw a weakening of this as we went into October before picking back up in early November and lasting into the new year. OHC continued to rise another .7C, after the slow down in October area was around 1.2C for 180-100W, topping out at around 2C in January with a peak in January at a trimonthly of 1.7 with a peak 3.4 at 1.89C.

Below is the latest, the 5 day average ending on 11/7/23 with it cropped to only go down to 300m. Looking at 100-180W (most of this) and assuming this is based on the same data that the daily graph of 100-180W OHC uses, it appears to me that there’s a good shot at a new high on the graph of this Nino within the next few weeks. I wouldn’t all be shocked if +1.50 is reached. The current high is near +1.35 set in mid June.

*Edited for typo as it is 5 days ending on 11/7