El Nino 2023-2024

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You should show the H5 pattern on those NMME graphics as compared to 2M temps. 

looks great to me. but Pac puke!!!!!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks great to me. but Pac puke!!!!!

Is 500mb available?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Is 500mb available?

not that i know of, but 200mb and 500mb are correlated well enough that it would pretty much look the same

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Is 500mb available?

 

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not that i know of, but 200mb and 500mb are correlated well enough that it would pretty much look the same

Surprised how good December looks on that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks great to me. but Pac puke!!!!!

You can see how the Aleutian low retrogrades over the course of the season, which is why it gets better after the NY.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can see how the Aleutian low retrogrades over the course of the season, which is why it gets better after the NY.

Yeah Jan-Mar is rocking in that but even December was decent…not as cold as the other months but that would likely produce some real winter threats. 
 

None of this really matters though…I wouldn’t trust those LR model runs as far as I can throw the supercomputer that runs them. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Great - a winter with a built in can kick requirement

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

14-15 was the only really cold winter out of that bunch for the Northeast. It was the 20th coldest average winter temperature at 20.8°. 13-14 was  -2.8 at 22.1 and 10-11 was -1.8 along with 23.6 and -0.5 for 08-09. But my guess is that with the warming since the super El Niño, it’s going to be difficult to rival the 14-15 cold in the warmer climate. Just as 14-15 couldn’t match the cold of 93-94  a few decades earlier at 19.7 and 10th coldest. Plus 93-94 could not rival  the cold in the late 70s. 77-78 finished at 19.5 and 9th coldest while 76-77 was 18.4 and 5th coldest. So each cold pattern as the climate warms can’t match the ones from previous decades. 

Admittedly, I was thinking more in terms of here in Michigan, plus I don't really know what goes into "regional" temperature averages as opposed to just individual station averages. But I cannot believe 13-14 was not a cold winter in the northeast. it was literally the most severe winter on record in Detroit and other nearby places. And Feb 2015 was the coldest month on record in some upper midwest cities. 

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

Not only them but, several pro mets here as well. I don't know why you are so hellbent on going against everyone here that sees things differently.       Granted, it could go either way at this juncture. Minus blocking , that latest update Apparently, you want a mild Winter. Your liking, nothing wrong with that.( With economic problems, would be a good thing itr). If not, why want to go all out against those who would like to see at least an average one after so many mild one's ? 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but... 

The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb.

1870s – 25.2

1880s – 27.6

1890s – 26.5

1900s – 24.9

1910s – 25.5

1920s – 25.8

1930s – 28.3

1940s – 27.0

1950s – 28.6

1960s – 26.2

1970s – 24.8

1980s – 25.9

1990s – 29.2

2000s – 27.7

2010s – 28.2

1874-2021 – 27.0

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Admittedly, I was thinking more in terms of here in Michigan, plus I don't really know what goes into "regional" temperature averages as opposed to just individual station averages. But I cannot believe 13-14 was not a cold winter in the northeast. it was literally the most severe winter on record in Detroit and other nearby places. And Feb 2015 was the coldest month on record in some upper midwest cities. 

It was cold here but the winter was FAR more severe in the Lakes/Midwest/upper plains. 
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

First, you really should lose the hate. It's just the weather which none of us can control and many can't forecast accurately despite what they and their followers may think.

This. Times 1000%. You can literally look up tweets of anyone knowing their biases and just see a bunch of graphs/pics to support their "forecast". And this absolutely goes for both sides. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this. 

This is an excellent mantra to have ANY November. 

[griteater]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@griteaterYou updated this recently, correct? Care to bump?

See if this is what you recall: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7046338

 

[griteater]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I've been reading all the back and forth for the last few months trying to improve my knowledge on seasonal forecasting matters. Thank you for all the great work everyone!

I moved to the Tulsa area about a year ago. I'd been in the west before that my whole life. My question is, do any of you have any thoughts on how the ideal combination of indices for winter weather varies between here and the east coast? It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of overlap, but that my best snow patterns aren't going to be the same ones where the northeast scores big. Anyway, let me know if you have any thoughts. Thanks 

What I would suggest is that you first search for a list of top snowstorms in Tulsa.  Once you have those dates, you can go to this reanalysis site and view the 500mb and Surface maps together on one screen (you just have to select your dates from the dropdown at the top) - NCEP/NCAR v1 Reanalysis / North America (meteocentre.com)

Once you do that, you will get a feel for the types of setups where Tulsa gets hit.  I would think an El Nino type split flow would be good there with low pressure tracking from Southern California into Texas, with cold air to the north.  Also, big -EPO setups where cold air is diving down just east of the Rockies, and there is a weak wave running the boundary - probably lighter events, but very cold at times

[BucksCO_PA]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was cold here but the winter was FAR more severe in the Lakes/Midwest/upper plains. 
 

 

 

https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2014/05/remaining_lake_superior_ice_a.html

 

 

 

[bluewave]

While this has been a decent  WWB west of the Dateline, the lower upper ocean heat has really limited the surface warming potential. 
 

[JoMo]

5 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I've been reading all the back and forth for the last few months trying to improve my knowledge on seasonal forecasting matters. Thank you for all the great work everyone!

I moved to the Tulsa area about a year ago. I'd been in the west before that my whole life. My question is, do any of you have any thoughts on how the ideal combination of indices for winter weather varies between here and the east coast? It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of overlap, but that my best snow patterns aren't going to be the same ones where the northeast scores big. Anyway, let me know if you have any thoughts. Thanks 

I did research on this area many years ago, Tulsa is a bit farther SW but in the same general area. I found this paper helpful at the time. https://mospace.umsystem.edu/xmlui/handle/10355/2462

Quote

An examination of the interannual variability of SWMO snowfalls revealed that ENSO neutral winters produced more snowfall events than the El Nino or La Nina snowfall seasons, but the result was not statistically significant. When winter seasons were further stratified by phase of the PDO, the interannual variability of snowfall events associated with ENSO changed when comparing the earlier years in the data set with the later years. During the PDO2 period (1949- 1976, and 1999 - 2003), El Nino winters produced more snowfalls. La Nina and neutral winters produced more snowfalls during the later period (PDO1 - 1977-1999), and this result was significant at the 90% confidence interval when testing the means.

 

[George001]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, given that the -PDO may be messing with the MEI, the RONI is still about half a degree weaker than the ONI, and it's simpler and doesn't take as much into account. this event still isn't really acting like it should

and that's ignoring the western lean to the forcing that we've seen for months. not sure why that's being conveniently ignored by a lot of people

The -PDO is the most concerning thing for winter lovers in the east. Regardless of whether the Nino peaks at 1.6, 1.9, or 2.2, if there is a -PDO with it I’m going warm. Also, there has been a barrage of storms entering the Pacific Northwest. I don’t like seeing that.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

The -PDO is the most concerning thing for winter lovers in the east. Regardless of whether the Nino peaks at 1.6, 1.9, or 2.2, if there is a -PDO with it I’m going warm. Also, there has been a barrage of storms entering the Pacific Northwest. I don’t like seeing that.

ENSO is a bigger factor than the PDO. there are times where ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, and this year seems like a good candidate. the PDO can positively or negatively feed back on the PNA... a La Nina and -PDO will positively feed back and produce a persistent -PNA and vice versa. the -PDO likely negatively feeds back on El Nino this year, but +PNA is still favored overall

also what's occurring now doesn't have much bearing on the winter. November 2009 had the TPV sitting over AK

[George001]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

ENSO is a bigger factor than the PDO. there are times where ENSO and the PDO are out of phase, and this year seems like a good candidate. the PDO can positively or negatively feed back on the PNA... a La Nina and -PDO will positively feed back and produce a persistent -PNA and vice versa. the -PDO likely negatively feeds back on El Nino this year, but +PNA is still favored overall

also what's occurring now doesn't have much bearing on the winter. November 2009 had the TPV sitting over AK

That’s true, it doesn’t always translate but I would rather see a favorable pattern in November than an unfavorable one. The strong nino -PDO combination historically has been unfavorable for cold in the east. We need the polar region to cooperate, and the early signs aren’t looking too great for that. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

That’s true, it doesn’t always translate but I would rather see a favorable pattern in November than an unfavorable one. The strong nino -PDO combination historically has been unfavorable for cold in the east. We need the polar region to cooperate, and the early signs aren’t looking too great for that. 

@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable

I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, BucksCO_PA said:

 

https://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/2014/05/remaining_lake_superior_ice_a.html

 

 

 

I remember very well. It was quite warm Memorial Weekend, and people were laying in the sun on ice chunks.

 

It was an incredible winter. Officially at Detroit it ranked as #1 snowiest & 8th coldest on record, but when combining the two it was the most severe on record. It was the 3rd coldest Dec-Mar on record. The deep snow hung around all winter, and ice stayed on the lakes til well into late April. And in northern MI it was even longer, as the article shows. Never saw such a long, relentless winter like that here. Seems like yesterday and this winter is now the 10th anniversary. 

 

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

The -PDO is the most concerning thing for winter lovers in the east. Regardless of whether the Nino peaks at 1.6, 1.9, or 2.2, if there is a -PDO with it I’m going warm. Also, there has been a barrage of storms entering the Pacific Northwest. I don’t like seeing that.

November is the time of year that it doesnt matter WHAT the weather/pattern is, winter lovers are sweating with the pre-winter jitters. If its a mild, boring pattern you get the complaints. But if its cold/snow, you get the "bad omen for winter" vibes, or "we are wasting the cold too early", etc.

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The 1970s were in a league of their own for cold. If we were dealt the same pattern as we had in the late 70s, it would be way colder than average. Also remember, early to mid 20th century winters were much warmer than 1960s-70s ones. Below are the decades average winter temps at Detroit. The 1970s stick out like a sore, cold thumb.

1870s – 25.2

1880s – 27.6

1890s – 26.5

1900s – 24.9

1910s – 25.5

1920s – 25.8

1930s – 28.3

1940s – 27.0

1950s – 28.6

1960s – 26.2

1970s – 24.8

1980s – 25.9

1990s – 29.2

2000s – 27.7

2010s – 28.2

1874-2021 – 27.0

Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised. 

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable

I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter

Yeah, definitely more evidence. 

[Itryatgolf70]

24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly point I was making. Glad you followed up. I thought about it after posting that and it would still be as you said way below normal since "normal" or average temps have been raised. 

We will see who was right and who was wrong after winter because there really are a little more moving parts than normal this year

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

November is the time of year that it doesnt matter WHAT the weather/pattern is, winter lovers are sweating with the pre-winter jitters. If its a mild, boring pattern you get the complaints. But if its cold/snow, you get the "bad omen for winter" vibes, or "we are wasting the cold too early", etc.

The bolded has been said a bunch during our cold Novembers. “The pattern is going to flip to warm once winter starts” was the most popular. 
 

Honestly, I’ve seen both happen where the pattern locks in during November for many weeks well into winter and other times where it flips. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

What I would suggest is that you first search for a list of top snowstorms in Tulsa.  Once you have those dates, you can go to this reanalysis site and view the 500mb and Surface maps together on one screen (you just have to select your dates from the dropdown at the top) - NCEP/NCAR v1 Reanalysis / North America (meteocentre.com)

Once you do that, you will get a feel for the types of setups where Tulsa gets hit.  I would think an El Nino type split flow would be good there with low pressure tracking from Southern California into Texas, with cold air to the north.  Also, big -EPO setups where cold air is diving down just east of the Rockies, and there is a weak wave running the boundary - probably lighter events, but very cold at times

Thanks, I will take a look! Also, excellent work on your outlook. 

[weatherwiz]

45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@griteater would have something to say about the polar regions looking unfavorable

I am seeing more evidence for blocking than not. moderate to strong +ENSO events favor blocking. then factor in the -QBO and solar and it's pretty heavily favored to see periods of blocking this winter

Agreed, I think there's a pretty good chance we see multiple blocking periods emerge this winter. My top analogs in my winter outlook all featured winter's which featured more blocking than not. I think the only one of my years I heavily looked at was 1986-1987 (or maybe it was 1987-1988 I don't remember off hand) which didn't have much, if any, blocking. But like you said, moderate-to-strong EL Nino's tend to favor blocking and given how the QBO is already quite easterly my thinking is that will prevent the PV from becoming too strong as we ramp towards into winter.