El Nino 2023-2024

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

This isn't going to be a really  strong El Nino. 

[BlizzardWx]

I've been reading all the back and forth for the last few months trying to improve my knowledge on seasonal forecasting matters. Thank you for all the great work everyone!

I moved to the Tulsa area about a year ago. I'd been in the west before that my whole life. My question is, do any of you have any thoughts on how the ideal combination of indices for winter weather varies between here and the east coast? It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of overlap, but that my best snow patterns aren't going to be the same ones where the northeast scores big. Anyway, let me know if you have any thoughts. Thanks 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now????

So list of things that "no longer" matter now:

1. SOI

2. MEI

3. Location of main forcing

Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks

 

Region 4 has the second warmest anomaly that it ever had in recorded history...if that doesn't qualify as basin-wide, then I'm not sure what does. Basin-wide events have a high variance due to the SST warmth not being biased heavily in either direction, but the fact is that the warmth out west is titling the forcing in that direction.

[snowman19]

 
You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now????
So list of things that "no longer" matter now:
1. SOI
2. MEI
3. Location of main forcing
Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks
 

What in the world are you talking about?? No one is rewriting anything. That tweet I just posted simply explained why the MEI isn’t measuring up right now. The SOI has actually been impressive for months per @Gawx and I’ve never argued about main forcing. This Nino is going to warm, it hasn’t peaked, the peak most likely happens late December/January and it’s very well coupled as I have explained in the past couple of weeks in here

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Region 4 has the second warmest anomaly that it ever had in recorded history...if that doesn't qualify as basin-wide, then I'm not sure what does. Basin-wide events have a high variance due to the SST warmth not being biased heavily in either direction, but the fact is that the warmth out west is titling the forcing in that direction.

I feel like the result maybe basin wide orientation in terms of SSTs with a Modoki like forcing and storm tracks. However, we won't have Modoki like cold due to the Pacific and overall antecedent warmth around the globe. Basin-wide like temps in the seasonal mean with periods of canonical warmth and some modoki like cold shots...probably warm in the mean, but not prohibitively so.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully we can get enough of an El Niño atmospheric response this winter for a decent STJ. Right now we are seeing a very La Niña-like flash drought over portions of the Southeast. Record driest fall so far in locations that usually see this during years heading into La Niña winters. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Chattanooga Area, TN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Nov 7	Missing Count
1	2023-11-07	0.42	0
2	1938-11-07	1.68	0
3	2016-11-07	1.71	0
4	1939-11-07	2.10	0
5	1931-11-07	2.24	0
6	1998-11-07	2.32	0
7	1978-11-07	2.39	0
-	1891-11-07	2.39	0
8	1886-11-07	2.53	0
9	1904-11-07	2.64	0
10	2005-11-07	2.68	0
-	1922-11-07	2.68	0

 Indeed, it has been unusually dry in the TN Valley for El Niño since Sep 1st. However, much of the rest of the SE and E is often on the dry side in Sep and Oct of Ninos. Much of the central US is often wet like it was in Oct of 2023:

 
Sep to Oct precip moderate+ Ninos:

 

 The typical E coast El Niño wetness doesn’t start til Nov or Dec with dryness often becoming dominant in the TN Valley then…it is almost as if the TN Valley has gotten dry two months too early.

 Nov to Mar precip moderate+ Ninos:

[stadiumwave]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What in the world are you talking about?? No one is rewriting anything. That tweet I just posted simply explained why the MEI isn’t measuring up right now. The SOI has actually been impressive for months per @Gawx and I’ve never argued about main forcing. This Nino is going to warm, it hasn’t peaked, the peak most likely happens late December/January and it’s very well coupled as I have explained in the past couple of weeks in here

Exactly! It's coupled but I disagree on how well it's coupled. I think Eric exaggerated his point.

And while its coupled, it is its own flavor. To have as strong of an El Nino, based totally on SST's, & the main forcing to be that far west is indeed new territory based on the data we have. So, appealing to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 (which all had greatest forcing east of dateline with 97-98 being the furthest east) and then laughing is kind of strange.

My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this. 

[griteater]

Griteater’s Winter Outlook (23-24)

Link to PDF: Griteater's Winter Outlook (23-24).pdf - Google Drive

 

[GaWx]

Today’s update of this OHC graph has been revised significantly warmer for late Oct/early Nov with it suggesting it has risen back to ~+1.2 and rising further. Let’s see if it later exceeds the earlier two peaks as the most recent animation provided by @so_whats_happeningsuggested to me could possibly occur soon:

[George001]

11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Exactly! It's coupled but I disagree on how well it's coupled. I think Eric exaggerated his point.

And while its coupled, it is its own flavor. To have as strong of an El Nino, based totally on SST's, & the main forcing to be that far west is indeed new territory based on the data we have. So, appealing to 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 (which all had greatest forcing east of dateline with 97-98 being the furthest east) and then laughing is kind of strange.

My take on this winter is nothing will surprise me. I think there's some reasons those who desire a blowtorch winter should be very concerned & those who love cold/snowy winters to be as well. A humble approach would be the best approach with this. 

72-73 is a solid analog, yes this nino likely won’t become super like that one did, but most guidance has it peaking as a high end strong event. This isn’t a true east based nino like 97-98, the structure is also a good match (basin wide but east lean). The combination of strong nino and -PDO is another thing that matches 72-73. 

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What in the world are you talking about?? No one is rewriting anything. That tweet I just posted simply explained why the MEI isn’t measuring up right now. The SOI has actually been impressive for months per @Gawx and I’ve never argued about main forcing. This Nino is going to warm, it hasn’t peaked, the peak most likely happens late December/January and it’s very well coupled as I have explained in the past couple of weeks in here

I’d welcome more Nino 3.4 warming as per RONI it is still only in the lower half of moderate and a warmer 3.4 would make it more of a CP/EP combo Nino instead of more EP dominated.

[stadiumwave]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Griteater’s Winter Outlook (23-24)

Link to PDF: Griteater's Winter Outlook (23-24).pdf - Google Drive

 

Very well done sir! I like the objective, humble approach in mentioning factors that could take this either way. I also agree on the balance of warm & cold periods & nothing really "locking in" for the long haul.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/1/2023 at 7:18 PM, griteater said:

 

In scanning thru some VP images, it seems like the VP that sets up in the Sep-Nov timeframe tends to throw out some clues in terms of how things will go in the winter.

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is either heavy in the E Pacific or extends from the E Pacific into S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of an east-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther east and northern conus and S Canada ridging.  See 91-92 and 94-95 (same ideas for 15-16, but image not shown)

The El Nino years when the Sep-Nov -VP is weaker in the E Pacific and positive in S America, the resulting winter pattern has more of a west-based look with Aleutian Low pressure farther west and ridging into AK and W Canada.  See 02-03 and 09-10 (same ideas for 14-15, but image not shown)

Note that the VP pattern among the 4 years in the winter isn't as different as it is in the fall (2 camps seen in the fall)

 

 

 

@griteaterYou updated this recently, correct? Care to bump?

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As you suspected, the NMME got stronger with the El Nino on this new run, especially in regions 3 and 3.4. That QPF map is indicative of a raging, roaring STJ crashing into the west coast and flooding the CONUS with PAC air. I’m sure @CAPE and @mitchnick will throughly enjoy lol

 

 

 

 

if this is "flooding the US with Pacific air," i have a bridge to sell you. what are you even talking about? the Aleutian low is backed way west

[brooklynwx99]

i ask what he's talking about but he probably can't post again today. lmao

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this is "flooding the US with Pacific air," i have a bridge to sell you. what are you even talking about? the Aleutian low is backed way west

He assumed that based on the much wetter NMME vs last month in the W US. I still haven’t seen 2m temperatures update on TT. Has anyone seen 2m anywhere?

[brooklynwx99]

also, given that the -PDO may be messing with the MEI, the RONI is still about half a degree weaker than the ONI, and it's simpler and doesn't take as much into account. this event still isn't really acting like it should

and that's ignoring the western lean to the forcing that we've seen for months. not sure why that's being conveniently ignored by a lot of people

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this is "flooding the US with Pacific air," i have a bridge to sell you. what are you even talking about? the Aleutian low is backed way west

That looks like the Modoki composite.

[Terpeast]

44 minutes ago, griteater said:

Griteater’s Winter Outlook (23-24)

Link to PDF: Griteater's Winter Outlook (23-24).pdf - Google Drive

 

Great job, I think we're tracking along the same lines for our outlooks. 

I have mby at 60% chance of above snowfall climo, so you're about 10% more bullish than I am

[stadiumwave]

37 minutes ago, George001 said:

72-73 is a solid analog, yes this nino likely won’t become super like that one did, but most guidance has it peaking as a high end strong event. This isn’t a true east based nino like 97-98, the structure is also a good match (basin wide but east lean). The combination of strong nino and -PDO is another thing that matches 72-73. 

It is in ENSO SST anomaly structure, also the -PDO, but the QBO & forcing is different.

As Gritear & Wiz both showed in their forecasts, the forcing is very similar to 2002-03, & 2009-10. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That looks like the Modoki composite.

no, no, this is obviously a classical, canonical, and even prototypical EP super Nino that is going to behave completely normally

[CoastalWx]

I don't think this is all that well coupled at all. It continues to act nothing like previous high end Ninos that are being thrown around as comparisons.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_elnino-thenino-weather-activity-7127989341116604417-vxbu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think this is all that well coupled at all. It continues to act nothing like previous high end Ninos that are being thrown around as comparisons.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_elnino-thenino-weather-activity-7127989341116604417-vxbu?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

this is conveniently left out for some reason. I was told by someone that the forcing can't be used month to month because of sub-monthly variability lmao there is no convincing anyone of these differences at this point

[stadiumwave]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

He assumed that based on the much wetter NMME vs last month in the W US. I still haven’t seen 2m temperatures update on TT. Has anyone seen 2m anywhere?

Obviously warmish on 2m temps verses the norm on most seasonal models always anymore. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is conveniently left out for some reason. I was told by someone that the forcing can't be used month to month because of sub-monthly variability lmao there is no convincing anyone of these differences at this point

Right now MJO passages are driving the weekly changes in weather across the CONUS, not really Nino. Maybe there is a low frequency background signal, but I don't see Nino in the driver seat yet.

 

Maybe it changes in December, but currently we aren't seeing the typical response yet.

[ORH_wxman]

OHC being so weak compared to other Super Ninos seems to be a big culprit on why these westerly wind bursts aren’t producing big spikes in the SST anomalies. 
 

Good to see it rising a bit now as that should help with Chuck’s +PNA indicator…and I think we want to see some more 3.4 warming so this acts a bit more Nino-ish as we go into January. 
 

But having this Nino behave much weaker is probably not necessarily a bad thing as we go into December. 

[stadiumwave]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is conveniently left out for some reason. I was told by someone that the forcing can't be used month to month because of sub-monthly variability lmao there is no convincing anyone of these differences at this point

 

That's pretty telling.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Obviously warmish on 2m temps verses the norm on most seasonal models always anymore. 

Thanks. So, the new NMME has near normal for much of the E/SE, similar to most others as well as to the prior run. It looks like it may have gotten a little warmer in much of the area from near Chicago to TX though I want to do a comparison when it gets onto TT to see if that’s true as baselines may be different.

[CoastalWx]

You should show the H5 pattern on those NMME graphics as compared to 2M temps. 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OHC being so weak compared to other Super Ninos seems to be a big culprit on why these westerly wind bursts aren’t producing big spikes in the SST anomalies. 
 

Good to see it rising a bit now as that should help with Chuck’s +PNA indicator…and I think we want to see some more 3.4 warming so this acts a bit more Nino-ish as we go into January. 
 

But having this Nino behave much weaker is probably not necessarily a bad thing as we go into December. 

Yeah, I agree that more warming in 3.4 should be more favorable for winter in the E US as it would get it closer to a CP Nino and further from an EP Nino.