El Nino 2023-2024

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm not astute with these teleconnections like yall are, but do we want the MEI real high or as low as possible for a better chance at non ratter of a winter?

 Of course, it depends on the region. For the SE US including much of TN, the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs:

+1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5.

 So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE.
 

 The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10.

 MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85.

 I’d say for the SE that if we could get this winter a DJ MEI to within the +0.6 to +1.2 range, a <-0.50 DJF AO, and a <+0.25 NAO, I’d bet heavily on a 2F or more BN DJF.

 With SO at +0.26, what are the odds of getting a +0.6 to +1.2 three bimonths later? We’d need a rise of 0.34 to 0.94. What % of the 25 El Niños rose within/near that range? 20% (these five: 1968-9, 1982-3, 1986-7, 1991-2, and 2009-10). The avg change from SO to DJ is ~0. Nearly half (12 of 25) fell. None rose more than 0.7.

 So, now that the MEI unexpectedly dropped 0.33 this bimonth, the challenge will be for it to rise enough with little chance of it rising too much. So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next two bimonths. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON.

Edit: Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948 for El Nino? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more (0.40) before it rebounded 0.50 from SO to ND, which I’d love to see.

 Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI:

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

[Itryatgolf70]

18 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Of course, it depends on the region. For the SE US including much of TN, the 10 coldest El Niño winters back to 1951-2 were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1965-6, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 2002-3, 2009-10, and 2014-5. Per Webb’s table these were the rounded DJ MEIs:

+1.5, +0.9, +1.3, +1.2, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, +1.0, +1.1, and +0.5.

 So, range of +0.5 to +1.5 for the DJ MEI with a mean of +0.95 and a median of +0.95. So, sweet spot near +1.0 for the 10 coldest in the SE.
 

 The 6 coldest were 1957-8, 1963-4, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, and 2009-10.

 MEIs for these 6: +1.5, +0.9, +0.8, +0.8, +0.7, and +1.1. So, range of +0.7 to +1.5 with mean of +1.0 and median of +0.85.

 I’d say for the SE that if we could get this winter a DJ MEI to within the +0.6 to +1.2 range, a <-0.50 DJF AO, and a <+0.25 NAO, I’d bet heavily on a 2F or more BN DJF.

 With SO at +0.26, what are the odds of getting a +0.6 to +1.2 three bimonths later? We’d need a rise of 0.34 to 0.94. What % of the 25 El Niños rose within/near that range? 20% (these five: 1968-9, 1982-3, 1986-7, 1991-2, and 2009-10). The avg change from SO to DJ is ~0. Nearly half (12 of 25 fell). None rose more than 0.7.

 So, now that the MEI unexpectedly dropped 0.33 this bimonth, the challenge will be for it to rise enough with little chance of it rising too much. So, I’ll be rooting for a significant rise in the next two bimonths. I’d like to see a rise of +0.2+ back to +0.5+ in ON.

Edit: Was 2023’s drop of 0.33 from AS to SO the largest back to 1948? Actually, no as 1986 dropped slightly more

 Webb’s 1948-2019 MEI:

https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

I guess my question is if the MEI stays .33 or even drops, will that increase one's chances at a warm winter or is it too early to know? What years had a similar MEI currently or even lower and how was those winters or was there any El niño winters to compare?Thanks larry in advance

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I guess my question is if the MEI stays .33 or even drops, will that increase one's chances at a warm winter or is it too early to know? What years had a similar MEI currently or even lower and how was those winters or was there any El niño winters to compare?Thanks larry in advance

 Yes it would increase the chance of a warm winter though that doesn’t necessarily mean it would be warm. It could be near normal and there’s always the fluke chance of it being cold.

 I’ll again gear this to the SE/Midsouth since that’s near where you live. Of the 25 El Niño winters since 1951-2, I found NONE that were BN in the bulk of our area with an MEI of 0.4 or lower in winter although some were near normal. So, clearly the message is that the chances during El Niño of getting a BN winter are higher with an MEI of +0.5 at the very least. So, we’ll definitely want to see it bounce back higher with the next update.

 Aside: There were two warm neutral winters (per ONI) that had a MEI of 0.3 or lower in winter that were BN in the SE: 1993-4 and 2003-4. But those weren’t El Niños. Thus they’re irrelevant.

[Itryatgolf70]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’ll again gear this to the SE/Midsouth since that’s near where you live. Of the 25 El Niño winters since 1951-2, I found NONE that were BN in the bulk of our area with an MEI of 0.4 or lower in winter although some were near normal. So, clearly the message is that the chances during El Niño of getting a BN winter are higher with an MEI of +0.5 at the very least. So, we’ll definitely want to see it bounce back higher with the next update.

 Aside: There were two warm neutral winters (per ONI) that had a MEI of 0.3 or lower in winter that were BN in the SE: 1993-4 and 2003-4. But those weren’t El Niños.

What really concerns me is the -AAM right now. I know that's just one puzzle piece but very important imo

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What really concerns me is the -AAM right now. I know that's just one puzzle piece but very important imo

You worry too much. It is just weather. We’d very likely survive a mild winter. 
Personally, I have way bigger concerns in my life lol. If that were my biggest concern, I’d be a very happy camper! Actually for me, winter is my favorite season even if mild even though I’d much rather have it cold way down here in the Deep South, where cold is so outweighed by heat and humidity overall.

[Itryatgolf70]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

You worry too much. It is just weather. We’d very likely survive a mild winter. 
Personally, I have way bigger concerns in my life lol. If that were my biggest concern, I’d be a very happy camper!

I expect a warm winter. That's the norm now. I'm always the internal optimist that hopes things change or shift that can lead to a colder outcome than most think or at least more interesting than last winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

Webb literally wrote a thesis on Twitter about why the MEI doesn't matter...talk about being triggered lol

[stadiumwave]

Yoda has spoken!

[raindancewx]

Webb's datasets are pretty flawed. You'll see him talk about 30 blends of data washing out errors. At the end of the day though, the ship reports / ICOADS / sparse official observations pre 1950 all have pretty systematic flaws that can't really be teased out well enough to detect the older weak events for El Nino or La Nina. Beyond that you just don't have many SST observations in the older decades south of 50S until pretty recently, and you'd want to be able to look for the "PDO" ring in the Southern Hemisphere as well, as an example of an ENSO response that did or did not happen.

Call it what you will, but CPC has the El Nino / -PDO result I've been expecting for months. You have storms showing up on the models undercutting a very warm northern US, with the West turning wet despite the supposed El Nino = +PNA look. For the moment, 2009 is a good analog to the pattern. There are real reasons to believe it won't continue. As we get closer to December, we should start to see the more canonical blazing East / cool West look that shows up with heat in Nino 4 / MJO zones 5 / +WPO years.

Here is another correlation map - you can see we're still moving to the -PDO looks.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Yoda has spoken!

 So, I wrote all of that stuff about his MEI tables and analyzed the MEI way more than I ever have only to later see him say it has a lot of flaws? Bummer! 

[snowman19]

Hmmmmmm, very interesting stuff…..
@CAPE @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @Daniel Boone @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @griteater @GaWx @stadiumwave @mitchnick

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Hmmmmmm, very interesting stuff…..
@CAPE @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @Daniel Boone @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @griteater @GaWx @stadiumwave @mitchnick

 

 

 

 

Admittedly, I  do feel honored to make Snowman's hate list. 

[mitchnick]

Bastardi fwiw. Mentions a lot of the same factors discussed here.

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

[snowman19]

18 hours ago, GaWx said:

The updated NMME qpf for DJF appears to be out early (being that it is a 0Z Nov 8th run)  and is much wetter in both the E US and W US vs the prior run. The temperatures aren’t out yet:

 
Old run:

 

As you suspected, the NMME got stronger with the El Nino on this new run, especially in regions 3 and 3.4. That QPF map is indicative of a raging, roaring STJ crashing into the west coast and flooding the CONUS with PAC air. I’m sure @CAPE and @mitchnick will throughly enjoy lol

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As you suspected, the NMME got stronger with the El Nino on this new run, especially in regions 3 and 3.4. That QPF map is indicative of a raging, roaring STJ crashing into the west coast and flooding the CONUS with PAC air. I’m sure @CAPE and @mitchnick will throughly enjoy lol

 

 

 

 

Like the weatherman who forecasts without looking outside, he needs to check actual ssta's.

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like the weatherman who forecasts without looking outside, he needs to check actual ssta's.

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

First, you really should lose the hate. It's just the weather which none of us can control and many can't forecast accurately despite what they and their followers may think.

But to answer your wx question, this attachment shows why I'm not yet impressed. 850 anomalies have already been strong from the west but ssta have still cooled. When and if that response materializes, then I  will believe it. 

I should add, the westerly wind anomalies continue to be west of the dateline.  I think that's the problem. 

[roardog]

On 10/24/2023 at 3:44 PM, snowman19 said:

IMO we see rapid warming in the coming weeks in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2. I think we hit +2.0C in early November in 3.4 and we approach or reach +3.0C in region 1+2, we may approach +3.0C in region 3 as well

This forecast isn't looking great right now.

[snowman19]

This forecast isn't looking great right now.

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

But they were the Cfs forecasts and yours were yours, so...

[roardog]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Better than your CFS forecasts of region 1+2 being in a La Niña by now lmfaoooo

The CFS isn't mine. I don't run it. However, the CFS actually seems to have the right general idea with 1+2, it just cooled it too much, too soon. I think it was down to +2.0 on yesterday's update.

[bluewave]

Hopefully we can get enough of an El Niño atmospheric response this winter for a decent STJ. Right now we are seeing a very La Niña-like flash drought over portions of the Southeast. Record driest fall so far in locations that usually see this during years heading into La Niña winters. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Chattanooga Area, TN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Nov 7	Missing Count
1	2023-11-07	0.42	0
2	1938-11-07	1.68	0
3	2016-11-07	1.71	0
4	1939-11-07	2.10	0
5	1931-11-07	2.24	0
6	1998-11-07	2.32	0
7	1978-11-07	2.39	0
-	1891-11-07	2.39	0
8	1886-11-07	2.53	0
9	1904-11-07	2.64	0
10	2005-11-07	2.68	0
-	1922-11-07	2.68	0

[mitchnick]

Just now, bluewave said:

Hopefully we can get enough of an El Niño atmospheric response this winter for a decent STJ. Right now we are seeing a very La Niña-like flash drought over portions of the Southeast. Record driest fall so far in locations that usually see this during years heading into La Niña winters. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Chattanooga Area, TN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Nov 7	Missing Count
1	2023-11-07	0.42	0
2	1938-11-07	1.68	0
3	2016-11-07	1.71	0
4	1939-11-07	2.10	0
5	1931-11-07	2.24	0
6	1998-11-07	2.32	0
7	1978-11-07	2.39	0
-	1891-11-07	2.39	0
8	1886-11-07	2.53	0
9	1904-11-07	2.64	0
10	2005-11-07	2.68	0
-	1922-11-07	2.68	0

Terrible drought conditions in S Central PA. Not that bad too far to my north, but we missed a lot of the summer storms. The lake in Codorus State Park has a shoreline more than 200' from its normal location. 

[roardog]

So in this thread, we have Bluewave pointing out how we have/had a La Niña like atmospheric response, meanwhile Snowman19 is posting tweets that say we have an atmospheric response of a well coupled El Niño. Talk about conflicting and completely opposite opinions. lol

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Terrible drought conditions in S Central PA. Not that bad too far to my north, but we missed a lot of the summer storms. The lake in Codorus State Park has a shoreline more than 200' from its normal location. 

Warm season drought is so dependent on convection that you can have a severe drought 50 miles away from flooding.

[Met1985]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully we can get enough of an El Niño atmospheric response this winter for a decent STJ. Right now we are seeing a very La Niña-like flash drought over portions of the Southeast. Record driest fall so far in locations that usually see this during years heading into La Niña winters. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for Chattanooga Area, TN (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Precipitation Sep 1 to Nov 7	Missing Count
1	2023-11-07	0.42	0
2	1938-11-07	1.68	0
3	2016-11-07	1.71	0
4	1939-11-07	2.10	0
5	1931-11-07	2.24	0
6	1998-11-07	2.32	0
7	1978-11-07	2.39	0
-	1891-11-07	2.39	0
8	1886-11-07	2.53	0
9	1904-11-07	2.64	0
10	2005-11-07	2.68	0
-	1922-11-07	2.68	0

Yeah we have several wildfires going on currently in WNC. This is one of the driest Falls that I can remember around here. Hoping the pattern changes soon but it doesn't look promising. 

[stadiumwave]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Hmmmmmm, very interesting stuff…..
@CAPE @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @Daniel Boone @Terpeast @brooklynwx99 @griteater @GaWx @stadiumwave @mitchnick

 

 

 

 

 

You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now????

So list of things that "no longer" matter now:

1. SOI

2. MEI

3. Location of main forcing

Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks

 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Are you looking at what’s going on right now oceanic wise? They are all about to warm big time. You’ll just ignore it when it happens though. Funny, don’t see you mentioning the RONI anymore lol And besides Eric Webb, the other tweet I just posted gave a very clear explanation of why the MEI is the way it is. 
 

And I’ll admit, you have Mark Margavage, Joe Bastardi, Henry Margusity and Tony Pann on your side, going HUGE cold and snowy winter, MEI to the rescue!!! 4 true all stars with those guys in the weather community. Legends. I’m sure this winter will work out superbly for you when you have them on your bandwagon lol

 

They will warm but not big time, or or at least based on what I'd consider "big-time". 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

You're conveniently calling an El Nino "east-based" based on SST's when in fact the main forcing has been west of the dateline the entire time. I'm surprised that Eric who has spent soooooo much time in the past pointing out how much that matters seems to say it means nothing now????

So list of things that "no longer" matter now:

1. SOI

2. MEI

3. Location of main forcing

Wow! We're rewriting all the literature. Thanks

 

He just wants a warm winter

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He just wants a warm winter

And he’s willing to discredit his own work in hopes of getting one.

I’m thinking maybe I should have used RONI instead.