El Nino 2023-2024

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I try not to do this, but that Webber ass is getting a shutout in my write up.....can't help myself.

Being who he is, he wouldn't be able to handle that

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 So, you think that the globe being ~1F warmer than any other Oct is enough to confidentially say that about the E US even with ENSO being dramatically different from a year ago?

I am more focused on the Northeast since this is where I live. So we have a decadal pattern of anomalous warmth. Plus Nino influences combined a La Niña background favors warmer than average Northeast  winter temperatures. Then we have this ridiculous global temperature spike over 5 months which has never happened before leading up to an El Niño winter. Past occasions of monthly temperature spikes occurred later in the winter like in 2016. This is something new and I am sure many papers are going to be written about it. Based on these factors alone, I think a record 9th warmer than average winter in a row for the Northeast has a good chance of playing out. But since I also have a ton of respect for variability, can’t say yet exactly how much above.

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, big change! 

Could mean it also went warmer, though? 

Odds are with that look. 

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will need some help from the much warmer 91-20 means to eventually get a colder winter season in the Northeast again. So a winter that was borderline warm before 20-21 will be borderline cold now. At least we have that. Last winter was as warm as 15-16 but the departure shrank from +5.8 to +4.9 due to the much warmer 91-20 averages. 
 

Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16

22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 

21-22…..26.1…..+0.3

20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest

19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest

18-19…..25.6……+0.7

17-18…..25.3……+0.4

16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest

15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Being who he is, he wouldn't be able to handle that

Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously he couldn't care less...I'm a nobody.....but it is what it is-

I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

Good point. Not that I think this winter won't be overall mild, I just think that regardless of a couple degrees warmer climate, wherever the trough setsup predominantly will still average colder than " normal". If we were dealt exact same pattern, as the late 70's for instance, we'd still average below normal for the Winter Season. May not be 6-8 degrees but... 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

14-15, 13-14, 10-11, 08-09 etc would certainly not need warmer normals to look cold.

14-15 was the only really cold winter out of that bunch for the Northeast. It was the 20th coldest average winter temperature at 20.8°. 13-14 was  -2.8 at 22.1 and 10-11 was -1.8 along with 23.6 and -0.5 for 08-09. But my guess is that with the warming since the super El Niño, it’s going to be difficult to rival the 14-15 cold in the warmer climate. Just as 14-15 couldn’t match the cold of 93-94  a few decades earlier at 19.7 and 10th coldest. Plus 93-94 could not rival  the cold in the late 70s. 77-78 finished at 19.5 and 9th coldest while 76-77 was 18.4 and 5th coldest. So each cold pattern as the climate warms can’t match the ones from previous decades. 

[stadiumwave]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is starting to show the winter pattern in a few weeks that we get when we have an El Niño +PNA ridge in Canada that gets undercut by the La Niña background or -PDO SW trough. 
 

 

Jet ends up undercutting ridge in the 10-15 day range. A repeat of that would be welcomed heading into DEC. 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

I've posted this in the SNE ENSO thread, but I think this EL Nino is going to be more reflective of earlier EL Nino events (pre-1980) and alot of those seasonal models have been yielding that look. Not sure if the increase in the Modoki EL Nino is the leading contributor in how EL Nino's have behaved, but there has been a clear cut shift in the behavior of EL Nino since around 1980. This is going to be one of the more interesting EL Nino's (when you factor in PDO, tropical forcing, etc.) we have seen in a while. 

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Jet ends up undercutting ridge in the 10-15 day range. A repeat of that would be welcomed heading into DEC. 

 

 

But notice the main trough axis still hangs back near the SW.

[stadiumwave]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But notice the main trough axis still hangs back near the SW.

 

It's a process. A repeated pattern like that will keep normal to below normal anomalies in the southern half over a period of time. Wave after wave simply moves across the CONUS. That's not a terrible pattern heading into DEC. I've seen worse for sure. 

Today's 12z EPS:

[brooklynwx99]

again, I don't understand the issue of the SW trough for December. most stronger Ninos feature this -PNA/+NAO pattern, so it should not be surprising. it is likely going to be a warm month

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I couldn't come up with the right emoji. It was a joke. I agree with you. You're not a nobody brother. It's many of the " somebody's" that in essence are the real nobody's. 

I just meant in weather circles...no need to talk me off of the ledge lol

[stadiumwave]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

again, I don't understand the issue of the SW trough for December. most stronger Ninos feature this -PNA/+NAO pattern, so it should not be surprising. it is likely going to be a warm month

 

As a rule of thumb, we all know most El Ninos have that warm DEC either way but if it's a cold NOV it's a given DEC will warm.

[stadiumwave]

This winter will not be 2009-10 in my opinion but the progression of that winter should be remembered. Because it seems like when it gets warm in NOV anymore folks seem to want to write winter off which is nonsense. 

NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies

 

500mb 

 

 

NOV 1-10

 

NOV 10-20

 

NOV 20-30

 

DEC 1-10

 

DEC 10-20

 

DEC 20-31

 

DEC Temp Anomalies 

 

DEC 500mb

 

DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. 

 

Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, look at the death star over AK in November....

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, stadiumwave said:

This winter will not be 2009-10 in my opinion but the progression of that winter should be remembered. Because it seems like when it gets warm in NOV anymore folks seem to want to write winter off which is nonsense. 

NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies

 

500mb 

 

 

NOV 1-10

 

NOV 10-20

 

NOV 20-30

 

DEC 1-10

 

DEC 10-20

 

DEC 20-31

 

DEC Temp Anomalies 

 

DEC 500mb

 

DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. 

 

Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way. 

2009 is a pretty good analog regardless

[Terpeast]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2009 is a pretty good analog regardless

It's the best looking horse of the bunch now. Doesn't mean it's an A- or even a B+ match. Probably more like a B- match and the rest are C or D matches.

Even back in September, when the PDO was like -3 and the very thing it would take to bring it to neutral would flood us with mild air almost through the entire autumn into early Dec, I knew there was going to be a lot of hand wringing and outright capitulations.

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

This winter will not be 2009-10 in my opinion but the progression of that winter should be remembered. Because it seems like when it gets warm in NOV anymore folks seem to want to write winter off which is nonsense. 

NOV, 2009 Temp anomalies

 

500mb 

 

 

NOV 1-10

 

NOV 10-20

 

NOV 20-30

 

DEC 1-10

 

DEC 10-20

 

DEC 20-31

 

DEC Temp Anomalies 

 

DEC 500mb

 

DEC 15-31, the 2nd half of Dec was the coldest. 

 

Again, I'm in no way saying this winter will be a repeat of 2009-10. I'm simply saying don't get excited or despair this month. Let it all unfold. Don't jump to conclusions either way. 

But it's the internet. Jumping to conclusions and off bridges is just what people like to do.

[mitchnick]

Although the latest MEI number hasn't updated, it looks to me like this Graph has been for September/October.  Assuming I'm right, the MEI has DROPPED for S/O.

[bluewave]

The latest MEI actually dropped to +0.3 with the unusually strong La Niña background state for Nino 3.4 SSTs in the strong range. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

7 November 2023

Current Value: 0.3

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Although the latest MEI number hasn't updated, it looks to me like this Graph has been for September/October.  Assuming I'm right, the MEI has DROPPED for S/O.

Well, I certainly did not expect the MEI to drop. 

It's what I based my outlook on, but with the assumption that MEI would stay between 0.5 and 1.2.

Btw, same thing happened in 1987 with that year having an even bigger drop, with a recovery throughout the winter. So perhaps it gets back into the +0.5 range next month, so it's premature to change my outlook for now.

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, I certainly did not expect the MEI to drop. 

It's what I based my outlook on, but with the assumption that MEI would stay between 0.5 and 1.2. Maybe it gets back into the +0.5 range next month, so it's premature to change my outlook for now.

 

The current strongest, most beastliest downwelling kelvin wave of the year per 97-98 twitter hounds will surely bring the MEI up a notch next month

[griteater]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Although the latest MEI number hasn't updated, it looks to me like this Graph has been for September/October.  Assuming I'm right, the MEI has DROPPED for S/O.

No doubt DT will be calling for an all-hands on deck ALEET when he sees this 

[brooklynwx99]

oh man. I'm still expecting the Nino to couple... not really worried there

but the "MEI is bullshit and you're just a weenie if you don't think this is going to act like 1997" stuff is so dated. no way this acts like its full ONI strength

[griteater]

That MEI number really is amazeballs. 

Lowest Sep-Oct MEIs in oncoming El Nino years since 1979:

2014: 0.0

2023 / 2004 / 1979: 0.3

 

 

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

oh man. I'm still expecting the Nino to couple... not really worried there

but the "MEI is bullshit and you're just a weenie if you don't think this is going to act like 1997" stuff is so dated. no way this acts like its full ONI strength

Paging Webb...

[Terpeast]

It may be useful to explore why the MEI dropped. I don’t think the PDO is the reason since it came up in October and is only slightly/moderately negative compared to last month when the MEI came in at 0.6.

Some would call it “nina background state”, but that’s too generic and almost useless. It could be the very warm Atlantic ssts or the strong IOD messing with the MEI, or something to do with OLR data. 

Not changing my outlook for now, but if it drops again or stays low in the December update, I may do that. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

it could be the IOD. not sure what else would do it

1986-87 did the same sort of thing. it also came after 3 consecutive cold ENSO events