El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

We’ll have to see how that plays out in a PDO that is currently negative 3! 

by comparison, pdo was moderate-strong positive in 1997, and neutral-weak negative in 1982

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[roardog]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We’ll have to see how that plays out in a PDO that is currently negative 3! 

by comparison, pdo was moderate-strong positive in 1997, and neutral-weak negative in 1982

 

 

 

How much does it even matter if the current 3.4 anomaly is high than 1997 at this time? Nothing else that matters is anything like 1997 right now. Twitter is just used for hype apparently. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino seemingly more integrated in the pattern now (forecast models, pattern). Usually there is a direct correlation from subsurface to the pattern, but we haven't seen this so much like I would expect Jan-Apr, with a lot of -PNA under warm central-ENSO subsurface. There was something I was tracking where the pattern of the previous year would similarly be oppositely repeated, to like to even it out, and something like that had more impact on what happened than ENSO Jan-Apr. I still think the "-PNA" has power going into next Fall and Winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I didn't run the absolute value calculation each year.
But I suspect these are the closest Nino 3.4 transitions since 1950 for Jan-Apr
to observations in 2023.

 1957  26.04  26.54  27.46  28.23  28.55  28.36  28.17  27.69  27.44  27.42  27.62  27.90
 1963  25.77  26.22  27.18  27.78  27.63  27.62  27.78  27.48  27.40  27.36  27.47  27.62
 1972  25.62  26.30  27.09  27.89  28.32  28.18  28.14  27.95  27.95  28.26  28.61  28.69
 1997  26.01  26.38  27.04  27.98  28.58  28.82  28.86  28.75  28.85  29.08  29.12  28.89
 2014  26.05  26.14  27.00  27.90  28.25  27.96  27.23  26.82  27.01  27.16  27.46  27.31
 Blend 25.90  26.32  27.15  27.96
 2023  25.83  26.29  27.18  27.91 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99

Those five years would be a pretty severe cold season, outside of a major warm up in January. November and March (kind of like this past year really) would likely be quite severe. The severe fall/spring should play out again in some form with the volcanic activity contributing to that. March 1973 and March 2015 have some really cold storms in the West super far south, with snow down to the suburbs of Guadalajara in March 2015, and historic late season snows throughout New Mexico in 1973.

The DJF blend of the five is:

1957-58  (28.15C, +1.65C against 60-year means in DJF in Nino 3.4)

1963-64 (27.36C, +0.86C)

1972-73  (28.33C, +1.83C)

1997-98  (28.87C, +2.37C)

2014-15   (27.18C, +0.68C)

Blend:       (27.98C +1.48C)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Big +NAO signal, even though it isn't exactly balmy...snowfall is great in the east unless el nino goes Berserk.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Big +NAO signal, even though it isn't exactly balmy...

I would love a +NAO next Winter.. 97-98 and 01-02 both had pretty strong times of -NAO, I think 72-73 too. I think +NAO right now is correlating with -EPO/+pna. More snow in the last 10 years is correlating with +NAO, although by itself it's not a great pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would love a +NAO next Winter.. 97-98 and 01-02 both had pretty strong times of -NAO, I think 72-73 too. I think +NAO right now is correlating with -EPO. More snow in the last 10 years is correlating with +NAO, although by itself it's not a great pattern. 

I think we can all agree the Pacific not being entirely hostile is more important...the NAO just affords a bit of margin for error.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we can all agree the Pacific not being entirely hostile is more important...the NAO just affords a bit of margin for error.

NAO and west-based NAO anti-correlation right now is stronger I think than ENSO. I wonder if -QBO/El Nino (Stratosphere warming signal) will help that flip around, like 09-10. (The way +qbo/Nina worked last Winter makes me think we may do more snowy +NAO's next Winter.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

NAO and west-based NAO anti-correlation right now is stronger I think than ENSO. I wonder if -QBO/El Nino (Stratosphere warming signal) will help that flip around, like 09-10. (The way +qbo/Nina worked last Winter makes me think we may do more snowy +NAO's/-epo's next Winter.)

I'm still wrapping up my recap and grading of last season and haven't really looked at much yet, but just based on what raindance has contributed, I am inclined to agree.

[csnavywx]

This paper set to win again: https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo760

 

[raindancewx]

Conceptually, the Canadian look for winter is close to 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 minus 1957-58, 2014-15. I did warm that blend up by 0.2C since it is centered on the mid-1980s.

PDO, ENSO, and IOD are in the right phases, with the Atlantic/North Pacific not super far off. Big heat east of Japan, at 60E, 0N, El Nino centered at 120W, etc.

The paper on the IOD has the right idea. I'm always a bit skeptical about the lead time, especially since the Indian Ocean seems to be warming faster than the other oceans. But the 14 month lead idea is consistent with an 11/2023 peak for this event.

 

[snowman19]

Conceptually, the Canadian look for winter is close to 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 minus 1957-58, 2014-15. I did warm that blend up by 0.2C since it is centered on the mid-1980s.

PDO, ENSO, and IOD are in the right phases, with the Atlantic/North Pacific not super far off. Big heat east of Japan, at 60E, 0N, El Nino centered at 120W, etc.
The paper on the IOD has the right idea. I'm always a bit skeptical about the lead time, especially since the Indian Ocean seems to be warming faster than the other oceans. But the 14 month lead idea is consistent with an 11/2023 peak for this event.

 

A late November peak sounds about right. The 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 events all peaked in late November

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Conceptually, the Canadian look for winter is close to 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 minus 1957-58, 2014-15. I did warm that blend up by 0.2C since it is centered on the mid-1980s.

PDO, ENSO, and IOD are in the right phases, with the Atlantic/North Pacific not super far off. Big heat east of Japan, at 60E, 0N, El Nino centered at 120W, etc.

The paper on the IOD has the right idea. I'm always a bit skeptical about the lead time, especially since the Indian Ocean seems to be warming faster than the other oceans. But the 14 month lead idea is consistent with an 11/2023 peak for this event.

 

Any reasoning for the cooler anomalies off the northeast US & SE Canada coasts?

[snowman19]

Conceptually, the Canadian look for winter is close to 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 minus 1957-58, 2014-15. I did warm that blend up by 0.2C since it is centered on the mid-1980s.

PDO, ENSO, and IOD are in the right phases, with the Atlantic/North Pacific not super far off. Big heat east of Japan, at 60E, 0N, El Nino centered at 120W, etc.
The paper on the IOD has the right idea. I'm always a bit skeptical about the lead time, especially since the Indian Ocean seems to be warming faster than the other oceans. But the 14 month lead idea is consistent with an 11/2023 peak for this event.

 

Also, 97-98 was -QBO, like this year…. And although it didn’t come off a Niña, the 96-97 winter was cold neutral ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the Candian is a bit more central based than a '72, '91 and '97 composite.....not to mention I still not sure that it will end up as strong as that composite would suggest.

I have no issue with the PDO parallels....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Canadian actually looks pretty good to me at H5.....good amount of EPO and NAO blocking, though I don't place much stock in seasonal guidance at this range with respect to the polar domain. The H5 representation does support what I was saying about it being more of a basin-wide with a central focus look....slight east bias.

But its very tough to get this look with a strong, east-based canonical el nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/2/2023 at 9:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That el nino looks like 1986-1987...no issue with that. I understand the PDO will likely be more negative....just speaking of ENSO.

 

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Conceptually, the Canadian look for winter is close to 1972-73, 1991-92, 1997-98 minus 1957-58, 2014-15. I did warm that blend up by 0.2C since it is centered on the mid-1980s.

PDO, ENSO, and IOD are in the right phases, with the Atlantic/North Pacific not super far off. Big heat east of Japan, at 60E, 0N, El Nino centered at 120W, etc.

The paper on the IOD has the right idea. I'm always a bit skeptical about the lead time, especially since the Indian Ocean seems to be warming faster than the other oceans. But the 14 month lead idea is consistent with an 11/2023 peak for this event.

 

 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Canadian actually looks pretty good to me at H5.....good amount of EPO and NAO blocking, though I don't place much stock in seasonal guidance with respect to the polar domain. The H5 representation does support what I was saying about it being more of a basin-wide with a central focus look....slight east bias.

But its very tough to get this look with a strong, east-based canonical el nino.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[snowman19]

[csnavywx]

Yeah, seems overly bullish even if the MDR is warmer. Seems like a season where storms would do better in the subtropics or perhaps the Gulf.

[snowman19]

Yeah, seems overly bullish even if the MDR is warmer. Seems like a season where storms would do better in the subtropics or perhaps the Gulf.

If the El Nino is that strong and east-based like the Euro Seasonal is showing, that outlook makes no sense. It’s going to strengthen the tropical Atlantic trade winds and there will be wind shear from the PAC galore. At the very least, it would shut down the Caribbean

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the El Nino is that strong and east-based like the Euro Seasonal is showing, that outlook makes no sense. It’s going to strengthen the tropical Atlantic trade winds and there will be wind shear from the PAC galore. At the very least, it would shut down the Caribbean

There's more to it than strong Nino equals no hurricane season especially with the very odd evolution of this Nino. 

Things are changing in the new CC era. Old rules no longer apply 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, this May forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing.

 For this and other reasons, especially the strong warm bias of the Euro (more details about this in next post), I'm keeping chances of super at low with better chance of high end moderate or strong.

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

1. Unlike the April forecast, which warmed considerably vs March, this May forecast is about the same as April's when comparing the same months. It appears warmer in the animation only because of progression out another month, but each month through October is ~same. This new one still has ASO near +1.8 and SON is ~+1.90-1.95 per eyeballing.

2. As is pointed out in that Twitter thread by a reply from Alvaro (see below), the May Euro forecasts have had a significant warm bias with 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2017 verifying significantly too warm with only 2018 of the last 6 not being too warm. 2018 verified almost exactly right in May for ASO/SON with forecasts of +0.6/+0.8 vs actuals of +0.5/+0.8.

 More specifically:

- 2022 verified much too warm with a May forecast of -0.29 for SON vs actual of -1.0.

- 2021 verified much too warm with a May forecast of -0.02 for SON vs actual of -0.8.

- 2020 verified much too warm with a May forecast of -0.37 for SON vs actual of -1.2.

- 2019 verified too warm with a May forecast of +0.79 for SON vs actual of +0.3.

- 2017 verified way too warm with a May forecast of +0.9 for SON vs actual of -0.7! (worst May bust on record)

3. I can add that 2016 per the Columbia University site verified almost exactly right for ASO/SON with May forecasts of -0.5/-0.5 vs actuals of -0.5/-0.6.

4. 2015 verified a bit too warm with a May forecast of +2.4 for ASO vs actual of +2.2 and a forecast for SON of +2.7 vs actual of +2.4. Note that this 2015 SON forecast issued that May of +2.7 is actually much warmer than the 2023 SON forecast just issued in May of ~+1.9 to +1.95.

5. 2014 verified much too warm with a May forecast of +1.5 for ASO vs actual of only +0.2!

6. 2013 verified very slightly too warm for ASO/SON with May predictions of -0.1 vs actuals of -0.3/-0.2.

7. 2012 verified significantly too warm with May forecasts for ASO/SON of +0.8/+1.0 vs actuals of +0.4/+0.3.

8. 2011 verified significantly too warm with May forecast for ASO of -0.2 vs actual of -0.8.

9.  2010 verified significantly too warm with May forecast for ASO of -0.9 vs actual of -1.6.

10. 2009 verified barely too warm with May forecast for ASO of +0.8 vs actual of +0.7.

11. 2008 verified perfectly with May forecast for ASO of -0.2 vs actual of -0.2.

12. 2007 verified a bit too warm with May forecast for ASO of -0.8 vs actual of -1.1.

13. 2006 verified barely too warm with May forecast for JAS of +0.4 vs actual of +0.3.

14. 2005 verified too warm with May forecast for JAS of +0.4 vs actual of -0.1.

15. 2004 verified barely too cool with May forecast for JAS of +0.5 vs actual of +0.6. So, one has to go all of the way back to 2004 to find the last time the Euro May forecast was too cool for its endpoint and even that was too cool by only 0.1.

16. 2003 verified significantly too cool (last time for that) with May forecast for JAS of -0.4 vs actual of +0.2.

17. 2002 verified a bit too cool with May forecast for ASO of +0.7 vs actual of +1.0.

--------------------------------

Summary of Euro May forecasts:

- 2022-2005: significantly too warm 10 times, moderately to barely too warm 5 times, correct 3 times, too cool 0 times!!

- 2022-2005: average error +0.5!

- 2022-2005: average error when actual El Niño verified +0.35 with it correct once, barely too warm twice, moderately too warm once, and way too warm once. For this reason and others, I feel that the chance for a super remains low. I'm favoring high end moderate to strong trimonthly peak (+1.3 to +1.9).

- 2004-2002: significantly too cool once, moderately too cool once, barely too cool once.

- So, too cool all 3 times 2002-4 but never too cool since 2005! Was the model changed in 2005?

 

Columbia ENSO site:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/

[snowman19]

Correct, however, the POAMA (BOM) and CANSIPS are both showing similar outcomes

[so_whats_happening]

I could get behind a moderate El Nino. Included a strong one and two that pushed super nino briefly. These are years with cold/neutral or La Nina the winter before. Ill wait and see how this develops but anything above moderate may present a problem for winter lovers in the east again depending where forcing can actually set up.

 

The issue unfortunately is that a lot of these years predate 2000 so we are certainly in a different climate setting than those times so it will be interesting to see how this gets going.