El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

Strongest WWB/DWKW of this event. We are very likely 8+ weeks away from the El Niño peak….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am hoping to publish late Friday with the family gone and able to stay in the office late.

We shall await 

[so_whats_happening]

Since we are talking IOD now here were the last 5 decent to very strong +IOD events:

1994-95: Peaked at around 2 in early November

1997-98: Peaked around 4 in mid December

2006-07: Peaked around 2.3 mid December

2015-16: Peaked at 1.3 in early November

2019-20: Peaked at 3.3 in early December

So average timeframe to look for peak is from early November to mid December. Virtually all of them went negative by May with 2006-07 being the one that held on into summer.

Used this since it was a nice visual approach but only goes to 1993 which is fine enough for seeing the evolution of these events. I wouldn't expect this to act differently compared to ENSO.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/

Anyway here were the 850mb zonal wind anomalies starting from Sept 1. Most went positive around the beginning of summer and this year was no different. Just keep in mind peak timeframe when looking at these gifs and the lead up look to peak. 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Since we are talking IOD now here were the last 5 decent to very strong +IOD events:

1994-95: Peaked at around 2 in early November

1997-98: Peaked around 4 in mid December

2006-07: Peaked around 2.3 mid December

2015-16: Peaked at 1.3 in early November

2019-20: Peaked at 3.3 in early December

So average timeframe to look for peak is from early November to mid December. Virtually all of them went negative by May with 2006-07 being the one that held on into summer.

Used this since it was a nice visual approach but only goes to 1993 which is fine enough for seeing the evolution of these events. I wouldn't expect this to act differently compared to ENSO.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/

Anyway here were the 850mb zonal wind anomalies starting from Sept 1. Most went positive around the beginning of summer and this year was no different. Just keep in mind peak timeframe when looking at these gifs and the lead up look to peak. 

This is the last 2 week image so far for this event I will wait another 2 weeks but pretty sure we already peaked. You can still sustain easterlies in a +IOD event, such as this, and still have a weakening +IOD. The fact that this is already into the western IO means we are limiting just how much those values peak. I included a still image of 1997 when it had the strongest winds across the entire IO, it stretched from Sumatra to Somalia where we seem to currently have them more concentrated further west. 1997 was just better coupled to say the least.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is getting closer to peaking below super levels. Its one of the few years when the September and October were nearly the same. This event really ran out of momentum after August. Makes sense since we have never had a super El Niño after a 3 year La Niña before. Too much of a lag with the well established La Niña background state. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

ERSST 

JUL….1.02

AUG…1.35

SEP…..1.60

OCT….1.66

 

[snowman19]

Looks like Nino 3.4 is getting closer to peaking below super levels. Its one of the few years when the September and October were nearly the same. This event really ran out of momentum after August. It make sense since we have never had a super El Niño after a 3 year La Niña before. Too much of a lag with the well established La Niña background state. 
 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii
ERSST 
JUL….1.02
AUG…1.35
SEP…..1.60
OCT….1.66
 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

It will be a good WWB, but it’s coming a little late to move the needle much. I guess it’s possible we can get a daily or weekly OISST closer to super, but every spike had a pullback so the monthly will average below super. 

[griteater]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Nino 3.4 is getting closer to peaking below super levels. Its one of the few years when the September and October were nearly the same. This event really ran out of momentum after August. Makes sense since we have never had a super El Niño after a 3 year La Niña before. Too much of a lag with the well established La Niña background state. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

ERSST 

JUL….1.02

AUG…1.35

SEP…..1.60

OCT….1.66

 

September was the killer.  It was a slow and steady unimpeded climb.  Then it flatlined, and the damage was done

[griteater]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be a good WWB, but it’s coming a little late to move the needle much. I guess it’s possible we can get a daily or weekly OISST closer to super, but every spike had a pullback so the monthly will average below super. 

These late fall / early winter WWBs are welcome per the Chuck +PNA correlation of keeping warmth in the subsurface

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

September was the killer.  It was a slow and steady unimpeded climb.  Then it flatlined, and the damage was done

The EPS is starting to show the winter pattern in a few weeks that we get when we have an El Niño +PNA ridge in Canada that gets undercut by the La Niña background or -PDO SW trough. 
 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is starting to show the winter pattern in a few weeks that we get when we have an El Niño +PNA ridge in Canada that gets undercut by the La Niña background or -PDO SW trough. 
 

Too soon to call it a “winter” pattern in mid November. Besides, this pattern is forecast to last about a week. 

Let’s see what happens in early Jan. It’s actually pretty common to have mild patterns in late fall early winter before Jan-Mar turns productive for the mid-atlantic especially during ninos, so it’s not an early indication of much. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is starting to show the winter pattern in a few weeks that we get when we have an El Niño +PNA ridge in Canada that gets undercut by the La Niña background or -PDO SW trough. 
 

It's only November . Let's see where we are at in December. 

[snowman19]

Big SOI drop again, approaching -20

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like Nino 3.4 is getting closer to peaking below super levels. Its one of the few years when the September and October were nearly the same. This event really ran out of momentum after August. Makes sense since we have never had a super El Niño after a 3 year La Niña before. Too much of a lag with the well established La Niña background state. 
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

ERSST 

JUL….1.02

AUG…1.35

SEP…..1.60

OCT….1.66

 

Here is an excerpt from my outlook:

Climatologically speaking, an upper echelon el Nino event was always very dubious from even a very extended lead time due to the noted periodicity at which events of this magnitude occur. Since 1972, there have been four el Nino events with an ONI, MEI and RONI all exceeding 2.0, meaning that these four events were all extraordinarily intense relative to the surrounding Pacific basin within a warming climate. And thus extremely well coupled with the atmosphere. The warm ENSO events of 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 featured an average periodicity rate of 14.3 years with the lowest return rate being 10 years between the 1972 and 1982 events. Regardless of what guidance implied, another event of this magnitude was never particularly likely a mere 8 years on the heels of the great el Nino of 2015. As the spring, summer and now fall have progressed, it became clearer that this logic was sound, as the el Nino never significantly distinguished itself from a Pacific basin that featured highly anomalous warmth throughout and hence has yet to strongly couple with the atmosphere.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's only November . Let's see where we are at in December. 

And if the ONI isn't 2.0 by then, lets kick the evah livn' shit out of that can.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's only November . Let's see where we are at in December. 

Multi-year winter patterns are important. We have had 8 warmer than average winters in a row. So just hoping that we can do better in the snowfall department than last year. Even if it we make it 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Regardless of El Niño or La Niña, the warm anomalies end up in the East and the cold departures somewhere out West. This has been the winning winter temperature forecast since the super El Niño.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Multi-year winter patterns are important. We have had 8 warmer than average winters in a row. So just hoping that we can do better in the snowfall department than last year even it we make it 9 warmer than average winters in a row.

 

 

That also tells me is due to flip sooner than later, just like it did after the 2000-2008 eastern bonanza...not necessarily this year because I don't think that will be the case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think I could make a bet that it would be this winter due to the lack of any significant cold on the planet this year. So even if we stay at strong El Niño levels rather than super, the winter temperatures may very reflect a super El Niño in several locations where the best ridging sets up. So this may be one year that strong CFS super El Niño distinctions don’t matter that much. But I will always hold out hope for a rogue snow event under the stronger El Niños.

 

 

You are missing my point. I am not saying its going to get very cold., but rather we are due for some seasons that are colder east than west. But again, I agree with you that the -PDO makes it unlikely to reverse this year.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are missing my point. I am not saying its going to get very cold., but rather we are due for some seasons that are colder east than west. But again, I agree with you that the -PDO makes it unlikely to reverse this year.

i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think I could make a bet that it would be this winter due to the lack of any significant cold on the planet this year. So even if we stay at strong El Niño levels rather than super, the winter temperatures may very reflect a super El Niño in several locations where the best ridging sets up. So this may be one year that strong Vs super El Niño distinctions don’t matter that much. But I will always hold out hope for a rogue snow event under the stronger El Niños.

 

 

 So, you think that the globe being ~1F warmer than any other Oct is enough to confidentially say that about the E US even with ENSO being dramatically different from a year ago?

[CoastalWx]

Lets not forget that for awhile the west was baking after 2009. That was due to reverse. At some point in the east that will change too. Maybe not siggy BN...but the overall trend will reverse for a period of time. Not sure it's this year for the northeast, but the south and southeast will likely be cooler compared to recent winters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think that we haven't seen a true Nino in 8 years and people are forgetting how they function. crappy starts to the season are the status quo and there is a lot of hand wringing for no particular reason. I don't expect to see any significant La Nina influence at all once we get into January and especially February... if this winter is going to fail, it would be due to an overwhelming GoA low, not some Aleutian ridge dropping a deep trough over the western US

I expect a mild season in the mean because the colder turn is not going to entirely negate the warmer start.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I try not to do this, but that Webber ass is getting a shutout in my write up.....can't help myself.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nov doesn't historically have a high correlation to the PNA

This is after Oct had a decent +pna/-epo correlation that I think we hit. 

In December the strong N. Pacific influence of ENSO for the Winter starts to present itself

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expect a mild season in the mean because the colder turn is not going to entirely negate the warmer start.

i agree. i also think that seasonal models underdo cold anomalies in areas where there is a persistent trough. even last year, which was warm as hell, was very cold in the western US, and seasonals missed it even though they got the mean 500mb pattern pretty much correct

 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are missing my point. I am not saying its going to get very cold., but rather we are due for some seasons that are colder east than west. But again, I agree with you that the -PDO makes it unlikely to reverse this year.

We will need some help from the much warmer 91-20 means to eventually get a colder winter season in the Northeast again. So a winter that was borderline warm before 20-21 will be borderline cold now. At least we have that. Last winter was as warm as 15-16 but the departure shrank from +5.8 to +4.9 due to the much warmer 91-20 averages. 
 

Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16

22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 

21-22…..26.1…..+0.3

20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest

19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest

18-19…..25.6……+0.7

17-18…..25.3……+0.4

16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest

15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest

[GaWx]

The updated NMME qpf for DJF appears to be out early (being that it is a 0Z Nov 8th run)  and is much wetter in both the E US and W US vs the prior run. The temperatures aren’t out yet:

 

Old run:

 

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The updated NMME qpf for DJF appears to be out early (being that it is a 0Z Nov 8th run)  and is much wetter in both the E US and W US vs the prior run. The temperatures aren’t out yet:

 

Old run:

 

Wow, big change! 

Could mean it also went warmer, though? 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow, big change! 

Could mean it also went warmer, though? 

It could. I suspect this is based on a stronger El Niño.