El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Nov of 1963, 65, 82, 86, 94, and 06 all had a -0.31 or lower PNA in November. Five of those six (1965) ended up with a +0.69+ +PNA for DJF. Two of those five actually had -1.39 or lower in Nov. Is it that big of a deal that there’s a -PNA/+EPO showing up at midmonth? Might it just be transitory like it was in the five years noted above?

But we can still get a trough in the West with + PNA during an El Niño when the PDO is negative. That trough would pump the ridge over the East resulting in the 9th warmer than normal winter in a row for us. So this is why we don’t want a La Niña background state to combine with the El Niño this winter. If the PDO remains negative like all the models show with the big warm pool NW of Hawaii, it needs to be uncoupled to allow a clean El Niño response from late January into February.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 1.4C anomaly in region 4 has only been exceeded in 2015 (1.7). This equals the highest that it got in January 2010. This is why the EMI is essentially neutral despite the monster anomalies in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But we can still get a trough in the West with + PNA during an El Niño when the PDO is negative. That trough would pump the ridge over the East resulting in the 9th warmer than normal winter in a row for us. So this is why we don’t want a La Niña background state to combine with the El Niño this winter. If the PDO remains negative like all the models show with the big warm pool NW of Hawaii, it needs to be uncoupled to allow a clean El Niño response from late January into February.

 

I'll take my chances with a slight la Nina background.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But we can still get a trough in the West with + PNA during an El Niño when the PDO is negative. That trough would pump the ridge over the East resulting in the 9th warmer than normal winter in a row for us. So this is why we don’t want a La Niña background state to combine with the El Niño this winter. If the PDO remains negative like all the models show with the big warm pool NW of Hawaii, it needs to be uncoupled to allow a clean El Niño response from late January into February.

 

You can also get a -PNA with a +PNA if its biased to the west, like last January.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can also get a -PNA with a +PNA if its biased to the west, like last January.

You are correct with the PNA coming in at +0.21 last January with a strong 500 mb ridge in Canada and a trough tucked underneath near the SW.

 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You are correct with the PDO coming in at +0.23 last January with a strong 500 mb ridge in Canada and a trough tucked underneath near the SW.

 

Last January's PDO was -1.25, not +0..23 not sure where you're getting that value from.

 

Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Last January's PDO was -1.25, not +0..23 not sure where you're getting that value from.

 

Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I meant the PNA. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I meant the PNA. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Gotcha

[40/70 Benchmark]

The index values are great as a general guide, but at the end of the say you need to analyze the pattern for specificity and precision.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The index values are great as a general guide, but at the end of the say you need to analyze the pattern for specificity and precision.

That’s why I am a big fan of using the 500 composites since where the anomalies are located can often add more value than just looking at the raw indices.

[Itryatgolf70]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s why I am a big fan of using the 500 composites since where the anomalies are located can often add more value than just looking at the raw indices.

It looks like a -PDO is all but a guarantee this winter, so like you said, hopefully the pdo stays uncoupled. Also, even with a +AAM if there was one now, we would have our work cut out because the niño is east based still. Now this is going to be interesting with a -AAM on top of a -PDO if it stays that way. Imo, uncharted waters coming up.

[Itryatgolf70]

[so_whats_happening]

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am hoping to publish late Friday with the family gone and able to stay in the office late.

[Itryatgolf70]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

What did you mean by it may lock up any 123 in mjo movement going forward?

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

What did you mean by it may lock up any 123 in mjo movement going forward?

Essentially not allow MJO movement through 1-2-3. Technically 1 does also present itself in the EPAC as well. So we may still see it push into 1 going forward but get shunted back into null if the cooling across the IO continues.

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

 This shows the current AAM is slightly positive to neutral rather than negative. Am I missing something?

[Terpeast]

57 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

Yeah, I think this nino has already peaked, or is close to peaking. And right now it's a back and forth battle between +/- PNA. We've had an aleutian low and a +PNA-like pattern recently. Soon it'll be the other side's turn, and that mid month -PNA will last about a week, then after that who knows. Weeklies say it flips back to +PNA. 

I think this back and forth is going to last through the end of the year, and when January comes around, we'll see some El Nino influence kicking in then.

[Itryatgolf70]

52 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Essentially not allow MJO movement through 1-2-3. Technically 1 does also present itself in the EPAC as well. So we may still see it push into 1 going forward but get shunted back into null if the cooling across the IO continues.

If the mjo is in phases 4-6 all winter, we may be in trouble lol. I'm hoping that dont happen.

[so_whats_happening]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This shows the current AAM is slightly positive to neutral rather than negative. Am I missing something?

I would consider it neutral but yea nothing seems wrong. If you look at the plot further down you can see most of Sept and Oct were indeed negative. Very different from the strong +AAM pattern that was around in May and June which was in tandem to a large warming episode across 3.4.

This would suggest that El Nino atmospherically is still there, somewhat, but there are other things driving what we are seeing at the moment. 

[griteater]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This shows the current AAM is slightly positive to neutral rather than negative. Am I missing something?

I think those AAM forecasts tend to be sketchy.

I'd refer to the past charts to kind of see how things have progressed

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

MR-latest-30days.png (1555×983) (niu.edu)

MR-latest-365days.png (1566×983) (niu.edu)

[so_whats_happening]

26 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

If the mjo is in phases 4-6 all winter, we may be in trouble lol. I'm hoping that dont happen.

Nothing suggests that at the moment but it wouldn't be invalid to have a wave rising up in 4-5 from time to time. 6-7 look ehh so weak passing (near null) to pop out near 7/8 border and travel to 1 before circling around again. Way too difficult to say that is what will happen but if we see any noticeable weakening of the subsidence from the +IOD going forward then it becomes worrisome as that would allow a potential more solid wave through those regions.

[griteater]

This is crazy...this is all moderate / strong / super ninos since 1866 and the corresponding averaged PDO for Aug/Sep/Oct prior to the winter (CPC PDO Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat)

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think those AAM forecasts tend to be sketchy.

I'd refer to the past charts to kind of see how things have progressed

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

MR-latest-30days.png (1555×983) (niu.edu)

MR-latest-365days.png (1566×983) (niu.edu)

It is the same map from the atlas webpage just on a different site. Thanks for the 365 one.

[griteater]

7 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is the same map from the atlas webpage just on a different site. Thanks for the 365 one.

Yeah, I liked your link.  The GWO chart from MVentrice is a good one....but yeah, I was just pointing out that the data up to the current date is fine, but the forecast graphs/charts based off the CFS aren't regarded as very accurate, I don't think.

[so_whats_happening]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I think this nino has already peaked, or is close to peaking. And right now it's a back and forth battle between +/- PNA. We've had an aleutian low and a +PNA-like pattern recently. Soon it'll be the other side's turn, and that mid month -PNA will last about a week, then after that who knows. Weeklies say it flips back to +PNA. 

I think this back and forth is going to last through the end of the year, and when January comes around, we'll see some El Nino influence kicking in then.

Im still not entirely sure yet this is peak but we seemingly may be close, the SSTA has not reacted to the WWB like I thought it would thus far except in subsurface look. As for the PNA I have thought for awhile now this would be back and forth through the season especially with the ever present -PDO regime we have. I do agree though on the El Nino at some point in the near future should try to take hold January does seem reasonable and a slow decline in SSTA through the winter. We may see this being a similar look to last March but just anomalies in the opposite spots (last March was a warm east and cool up to about the dateline).

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah, I liked your link.  The GWO chart from MVentrice is a good one....but yeah, I was just pointing out that the data up to the current date is fine, but the forecast graphs/charts based off the CFS aren't regarded as very accurate, I don't think.

For sure forecasts are rough at best Ill have to check out the pattern globally with what looks like strong +AAM mode versus a strong -AAM mode. If I remember correctly a lot of wave break activity is -AAM regime and more blocking type pattern tends to be +AAM regime. Since -AAM tends to send energy poleward and helps with the SPV and TPV versus +AAM tends to focus things more equatorward weakening the SPV and TPV. This was one of those things not taught too often during schooling besides it being there, feel this is some grad level information.

[snowman19]

A few things, this WWB/DWKW is major and this Nino is not peaking/peaked right now, the peak doesn’t likely happen until late December or January, more warming is coming and substantial warming at that
 

 

 

 

Further this +IOD is still very much alive and very well coupled, very strong atmospheric response

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

For anyone looking for a current look to AAM this seems to update often enough.

https://phillyweatherauthority.com/global-wind-oscillation/

OISST finally updated and had brief spike to 1.84C now sitting around 1.7C but not liking that warming in the NW PAC/ Japan region again. IOD continues to slowly weaken due to the spreading of the cold anomalies westward but we are still technically positive since the difference is still positive overall. This may lock up any 1-2-3 in MJO movement as we go forward. With such warm anomalies near the Aleutians there may not be much of Aleutian low this year and something shown by the latest Euro update. Cooling the waters in the NW Atlantic giving us that tri-pole look. Waters of the Mexican coastline down to South America are cooling still which should allow at some point before the new year 1+2 to be cooler than 4 anomaly wise. It is likely that Nino 3 has peaked back at the end of August/ early September ~2.3C we should be nearing peak in 3.4 this month, whatever those values may be, then continue the slow decay as we go through winter. By spring this should be a shell of itself (March area).

Yeah. Like the change in the N. Atlantic. Definitely more blocking oriented signature. May even have a decent shot at decent 50-50's this year.

      GOA may promote ridging there. Aleutian low may be west of Aleutians or possibly even South with the SST look. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

I think those AAM forecasts tend to be sketchy.

I'd refer to the past charts to kind of see how things have progressed

https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

MR-latest-30days.png (1555×983) (niu.edu)

MR-latest-365days.png (1566×983) (niu.edu)

Never mind the forecasts. I’m confused about the CFS initialization. The CFS graph that I posted has ~+0.2 as of 12Z on 11/6 (initialization) vs ~-0.6 for the supposed actual at about the same time. Anyone understand the discrepancy?