El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

CPC just updated the official weekly readings, Nino 3.4 over +1.8C….

Nino 1+2: +2.2C
Nino 3: +2.1C
Nino 3.4: +1.8C
Nino 4: +1.4C

And this is BEFORE the DWKW/WWB warming currently in progress has yet to take effect. This one is going super. It’s coming

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

And yet the mid-November pattern being advertised is classic La Niña. 
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear

I'm not sure how we get a trimonthly value over 2.0 at this point.....Nino peaking in late Dec or Jan?

Is November going to average over 2.0? If it doesn't, then you need BOTH Dec and Jan to average higher than 2.0C. The upper OHC down there looks pretty weak to be able to sustain those types of numbers....but I'm open to the possibility if everything breaks right I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear

Zero chance.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Zero chance.

I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days

[snowman19]

by super, do you mean three consecutive trimonthly periods that average +2.0C or greater? just to be clear

Yes I do and I don’t think it peaks until late December or January

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm just asking because if he means one daily reading at +2.01C is super, then yes, this can certainly become super. everyone seems to have their own definition these days

TBH, it needs to hit 2.0 in the dailies to verify my 1-7-1.9 ONI call, so I hope it does....but no chance of 2.0 ONI.

[Itryatgolf70]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

And yet the mid-November pattern being advertised is classic La Niña. 
 

 

Chris, it's an atmosphere of -AAM, which is niña, so this makes sense. The million dollar question is what will it take to get the AAM positive? 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

And yet the mid-November pattern being advertised is classic La Niña. 
 

 

this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah it's basically Feb 2010 all over again. makes sense given what's been talked about ad nauseam in this thread

Would you please post the Euro’s 2 meter temperature forecast for each of D, J, and F? Also, what is the climo base period?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here

Interesting, this is actually a nino pattern with active mjo 1

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Would you please post the Euro’s 2 meter temperature forecast for each of D, J, and F? Also, what is the climo base period?

base period is 1993-2016

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Chris, it's an atmosphere of -AAM, which is niña, so this makes sense. The million dollar question is what will it take to get the AAM positive? 

We would expect to see a strong La Niña background state with the WPAC warm pool at the 3rd warmest on record for the month of October. So that strong -AAM makes sense. 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=40&lat2=0&lon1=100&lon2=180&iseas=1&mon1=9&mon2=9&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 

[Itryatgolf70]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would expect to see a strong La Niña background state with the WPAC warm pool at the 3rd warmest on record for the month of October. So that strong -AAM makes sense. 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=40&lat2=0&lon1=100&lon2=180&iseas=1&mon1=9&mon2=9&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 

If we keep the -AAM all winter, I think we will have a record warm winter this winter, despite the ocean being niño. That will be interesting for sure. 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this looks quite similar to phase 1 forcing that you'd see in Ninos, though. also looks close to typical Ninos with the +EPO and +NAO. i don't see a correlation with Ninas here

This doesn’t look like a MJO phase 1 pattern with the dominant forcing in the WPAC. Plus those MJO 500 mb composites based on ENSO from the French site can be inaccurate due to the very small sample size of cases. Better to stick with JMA or CPC for composites which have a very large number of past cases.
 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This doesn’t look like a MJO phase 1 pattern with the dominant forcing in the WPAC. 
 

there is some lingering forcing in the western IO that may be influencing things. either way, this pattern still looks quite similar to El Ninos in the past with the +EPO and +NAO

[weatherwiz]

I've posted this one the New England side (probably should have been more active in here since this is where the discussion is at) but I am quite intrigued to see if we see a shift in the tropical forcing moving through winter, however, there are no signs of that happening. At least according to my breakdowns (and this is just my breakdown meaning it doesn't mean it is correct and it's open to interpretation) there was only one true moderate EL Nino event in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline for the winter and that was 1925-1926. There has never been a strong EL Nino with tropical forcing west of the dateline. This doesn't mean it can't happen it just hasn't happened yet.

For a moderate or I guess you could say borderline strong EL Nino, the SOI isn't really reflective yet (though haven't seen the Oct value yet) and the MEI, at least to me, indicates the ocean-atmosphere is not coupled yet and I guess we see that as well with the AAM (which I'm trying to find the plot I saw posted in this thread earlier.

When I was working on my winter outlook and going through previous EL Nino events and looking at strength, structure, and incorporating PDO, PNA, QBO, etc...there were alot of mixed signals but what I found to be the most significant on the overall look of winter was

1. Aleutian Low - strength, structure, and where it was located

2. Arctic domain

I think this is a winter where the Arctic will be a significant driver in the pattern over North America.

Below is a 500mb composite for all EL Nino winters in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline. I understand there are great uncertainties with OLR data prior to the 1980's or so. 

 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is some lingering forcing in the western IO that may be influencing things. either way, this pattern still looks quite similar to El Ninos in the past with the +EPO and +NAO

But those years like 2009, 1972, and 2002 had very different 500 mb and forcing with the the MJO orbiting various phases.

[Itryatgolf70]

The reality is we will have a warm winter. No denying that. How warm? That's the million dollar question. Definitely come down to ao/nao, which are hard to predict this far out. Also a SSW if we can attain that but again too far out to predict. If we have those go negative and SSWE occur, all bets are off

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We would expect to see a strong La Niña background state with the WPAC warm pool at the 3rd warmest on record for the month of October. So that strong -AAM makes sense. 

 

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=40&lat2=0&lon1=100&lon2=180&iseas=1&mon1=9&mon2=9&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 

 But the tropical WPAC area between 15N and 15S, 120E and 160E, was only the 25th warmest on record and is the area that the pro met, Brad Harvey, follows for the main WPAC forcing. Why do you follow that much bigger area (how did you come up with 0-40N, 100E to Dateline) and also why don’t you include down to 15S, which is cooler between 120 and 160W?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/28/2023 at 11:13 AM, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 is at +1.78 here which is highest reading of this year.  Nino 1.2 (top line) with a slow and steady decline since late August.  Modoki Index at neutral

 

Do you have the link for this daily Modoki index? JAMSTEC just does it monthly...

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The reality is we will have a warm winter. No denying that. How warm? That's the million dollar question. Definitely come down to ao/nao, which are hard to predict this far out. Also a SSW if we can attain that but again too far out to predict. If we have those go negative and SSWE occur, all bets are off

In terms of the first bolded there is nothing that is screaming an above-average winter temperature wise across the CONUS. 

In terms of the second bolded, SSW episodes don't just correlate to what happens on our side of the hemisphere. There have been plenty of SSW events that have had zero impact on our side of the hemisphere. 

[GaWx]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've posted this one the New England side (probably should have been more active in here since this is where the discussion is at) but I am quite intrigued to see if we see a shift in the tropical forcing moving through winter, however, there are no signs of that happening. At least according to my breakdowns (and this is just my breakdown meaning it doesn't mean it is correct and it's open to interpretation) there was only one true moderate EL Nino event in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline for the winter and that was 1925-1926. There has never been a strong EL Nino with tropical forcing west of the dateline. This doesn't mean it can't happen it just hasn't happened yet.

For a moderate or I guess you could say borderline strong EL Nino, the SOI isn't really reflective yet (though haven't seen the Oct value yet) and the MEI, at least to me, indicates the ocean-atmosphere is not coupled yet and I guess we see that as well with the AAM (which I'm trying to find the plot I saw posted in this thread earlier.

When I was working on my winter outlook and going through previous EL Nino events and looking at strength, structure, and incorporating PDO, PNA, QBO, etc...there were alot of mixed signals but what I found to be the most significant on the overall look of winter was

1. Aleutian Low - strength, structure, and where it was located

2. Arctic domain

I think this is a winter where the Arctic will be a significant driver in the pattern over North America.

Below is a 500mb composite for all EL Nino winters in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline. I understand there are great uncertainties with OLR data prior to the 1980's or so. 

 

 Based on my analysis of SOIs for El Niños since 1950, I feel that the SOI has already been reflective of a strong El Niño. It was -10.45 for ASO. Since 1950 prior to 2023, this is how the ASO SOI came out for El Niños:

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The six moderate averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- Thus, this came in weaker than the super-strong range but within the upper part of the strong range for ASO.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

In terms of the first bolded there is nothing that is screaming an above-average winter temperature wise across the CONUS. 

In terms of the second bolded, SSW episodes don't just correlate to what happens on our side of the hemisphere. There have been plenty of SSW events that have had zero impact on our side of the hemisphere. 

I know when the pattern supports it to go overseas. It has happened many times before. SSW in reference I was talking about that those when they happen, can work out for us IF they happen here with the right pattern. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Based on my analysis of SOIs for El Niños since 1950, I feel that the SOI has already been reflective of a strong El Niño. It was -10.45 for ASO. Since 1950 prior to 2023, this is how the ASO SOI came out for El Niños:

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The six moderate averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- Thus, this came in weaker than the super-strong range but within the upper part of the strong range for ASO.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
 

 

Very interesting, thanks for that link! This is what I was using for SOI data. 

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/soi/soi_3dp.dat

[GaWx]

 The daily PDO is finally headed back up on WCS, where it has risen back up to -0.90 (as of 11/5) after dipping on Oct 31st to -1.03 (of course it is significantly lower than -0.90 on NOAA but I’m looking at the trend):

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Based on my analysis of SOIs for El Niños since 1950, I feel that the SOI has already been reflective of a strong El Niño. It was -10.45 for ASO. Since 1950 prior to 2023, this is how the ASO SOI came out for El Niños:

- The five super-strong averaged -16 (range -11 to -21).

- The four strong ones averaged -8 (range -5 to -12).

- The six moderate averaged -7 with a range of -1 to -12.

- The 10 weak ones also averaged -7 (with a range of +1 to -12).

- Thus, this came in weaker than the super-strong range but within the upper part of the strong range for ASO.

https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt
 

 

Going through this and comparing to the link I was using. 

I really wish I had come across this data source sooner. At the end of the day, I probably was incorrectly using the data source I used but the information on the link you provided is much more in-depth. 

[griteater]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have the link for this daily Modoki index? JAMSTEC just does it monthly...

That daily Modoki index is on StormVista.  The latest...

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

And yet the mid-November pattern being advertised is classic La Niña. 
 

 

 Nov of 1963, 65, 82, 86, 94, and 06 all had a -0.31 or lower PNA in November. Five of those six (all but 1965) ended up with a +0.69+ +PNA for DJF. Two of those five actually had -1.39 or lower in Nov. Is it that big of a deal that there’s a -PNA/+EPO showing up at midmonth? Might it just be transitory like it was in the five years noted above?

[Terpeast]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Nov of 1963, 65, 82, 86, 94, and 06 all had a -0.31 or lower PNA in November. Five of those six (1965) ended up with a +0.69+ +PNA for DJF. Two of those five actually had -1.39 or lower in Nov. Is it that big of a deal that there’s a -PNA/+EPO showing up at midmonth? Might it just be transitory like it was in the five years noted above?

i think it’s transitory and not a big deal, on this run the -pna lasts for about a week or so. But its also one model run

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

i think it’s transitory and not a big deal, on this run the -pna lasts for about a week or so. But its also one model run

I wouldn't be surprised if the PNA is rather transitory through the winter...so when looking back at the DJF or DJFM average the overall index won't be overly strong or overly positive. 

I really wish these indices were also broken up into bi-weekly data as opposed to just a raw monthly value. I believe the CPC provides daily readings for NAO, AO, and PNA (maybe not PNA?). I don't have the mathematical mind to do such a thing...I suppose you can just take two weeks worth of data and get an average, but I don't think that would be an accurate method of going about it.