El Nino 2023-2024

[griteater]

UK Met Office Nino 3.4 is at +1.67 after a current year high of +1.81 on Oct 30 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Am I the only one that read that Webb tweet completely differently?

On rereading the @snowman19post, I now realize that I mistakenly attributed the “stubborn -PNA” reference to Webb when it was actually “TheBetterDoge” who referred to that in a reply to Webb. I’ll correct my earlier post to refer to that person instead.
 Webb is saying the atmospheric response is actually pretty strong despite the weak MEI because the MEI tends to be stronger only during Modokis and that thus there will still be good warming upcoming even with the MEI still weak.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Why is Webb talking about a “stubborn” -PNA? Just because 11 of the last 14 days and the last 3 days in a row have had a -PNA? Big deal. A much bigger deal is that for only the second El Niño and 4th year since 1950, 2023 had a +PNA (+0.25+) in all of June-Oct with only 2005, 2009, and 2021 being the others. Furthermore, per GEFS there are no more -PNA days in sight with neutral to positive the next 14++ days. Included in this is a pretty strong+PNA returning midmonth. So, Nov may turn out to be the 6th +PNA month in a row. The only year since 1950 with a +PNA in all of June-Nov is 2021:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Webb is completely unhinged. 

I mistakenly referred to Webb referring to a stubborn -PNA whereas it was actually TheBetterDoge saying that in a reply to Webb.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

On rereading the @snowman19post, I now realize that I mistakenly attributed the “stubborn -PNA” reference to Webb when it was actually “TheBetterDoge” who referred to that in a reply to Webb. I’ll correct my earlier post to refer to that person instead. Webb is saying the atmospheric response is actually strong despite the weak MEI.

The atmospheric response at 500 mb has been a mix of El Niño and La Niña influences. So we could make the argument that the weaker MEI still reflects an element of the La Niña background state. That’s more valuable for forecasting the sensible weather outside the tropics than just looking at what the OLR and SOI are doing. The ridge NW of Hawaii  and over Hudson Bay is more a La Niña feature. While the ridging around Alaska is more El Niño-like in October. The Aleutian low is in an intermediate position between the El Niño and La Niña composites.
 

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmospheric response at 500 mb has been a mix of El Niño and La Niña influences. So we could make the argument that the weaker MEI still reflects an element of the La Niña background state. That’s more valuable for forecasting the sensible weather outside the tropics than just looking at what the OLR and SOI are doing. 
 

 

 Yeah, I‘m just saying that Webb is saying that the atmospheric response has been “pretty strong” despite the weak MEI. As I’ve said, how one classifies the atmospheric response can vary with how one defines what that is. I’ve been saying that the SOI is one way to measure atmospheric response and it averaging -10.4 in ASO is a form of a notable atmospheric response as that is well up into -SOI range for strong El Niños since 1950. But I realize that there are other forms of A.R. like H5 outside of the tropics.

[griteater]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Webb is saying the atmospheric response is actually strong despite the weak MEI because the MEI tends to be stronger only during Modokis and that thus there will still be good warming upcoming even with the MEI still weak.

He probably has additional ideas, but the bolded isn’t true cause the highest MEI values occurred during the big east based El Niños of 82-83 and 97-98 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

He probably has additional ideas, but the bolded isn’t true cause the highest MEI values occurred during the big east based El Niños of 82-83 and 97-98 

 Yeah, Webb implied that and I was just repeating what he said. Looking at the graphs, MEI since 1979 was clearly highest during the three strongest Nino’s based on ONI and thus 2023 is clearly lagging those three. Do you have a link to the monthly tabular MEI values?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, griteater said:

VP and OLR data prior to ~1980 is known to be sketchy at best and unreliable (prior to extensive satellite coverage across the tropics by which these values are computed today). 

I guess I should have focused on the Indonesia region, this is a pretty strong correlation. 

My point was near the dateline you had the index happening with both El Nino's and La Nina's. 

[griteater]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, Webb implied that and I was just repeating what he said. Looking at the graphs, MEI since 1979 was clearly highest during the three strongest Nino’s based on ONI and thus 2023 is clearly lagging those three. Do you have a link to the monthly tabular MEI values?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data

[Stormchaserchuck1]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The atmospheric response at 500 mb has been a mix of El Niño and La Niña influences. So we could make the argument that the weaker MEI still reflects an element of the La Niña background state. That’s more valuable for forecasting the sensible weather outside the tropics than just looking at what the OLR and SOI are doing. The ridge NW of Hawaii  and over Hudson Bay is more a La Niña feature. While the ridging around Alaska is more El Niño-like in October. The Aleutian low is in an intermediate position between the El Niño and La Niña composites.

The Pacific for Oct looks like an El Nino. We also have the pattern starting to show itself again on LR models. 

https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk

Remember, we are coming off of some powerful -PNA for the last 6 years so I'll take it. 

https://ibb.co/FgjXKt4

I think too we've had some higher than average correlations with ENSO in satellite era, as something like 20/22 events had a +pna or -pna associated. In the early 1900s, it was not that strong. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, I‘m just saying that Webb is saying that the atmospheric response has been “pretty strong” despite the weak MEI. As I’ve said, how one classifies the atmospheric response can vary with how one defines what that is. I’ve been saying that the SOI is one way to measure atmospheric response and it averaging -10.4 in ASO is a form of a notable atmospheric response as that is well up into -SOI range for strong El Niños since 1950. But I realize that there are other forms of A.R. like H5 outside of the tropics.

Yeah, I hear what you are saying. The MEI being much lower last summer into winter than the ONI did a great job explaining the La Niña on steroids pattern. I try to stick to the sensible weather since that is what most people can relate to. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/data/meiv2.data

 So, 2023’s Sep MEI was weaker than all 14 Nino’s since 1979 except 1979, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2018. And with 1979, 2004, 2014, and 2018 all being weak, only 2009 and 2023 stand out as going strongly against the grain of the ONI/MEI correlation. (2009 does finally get above +1 Nov+.) And wasn’t 2009 arguably Modoki? If so, that makes Webb’s comment about an MEI/Modoki correlation even more questionable.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So, 2023’s Sep MEI was weaker than all 14 Nino’s since 1979 except 1979, 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2018. And with 1979, 2004, 2014, and 2018 all being weak, only 2009 and 2023 stand out as going strongly against the grain of the ONI/MEI correlation. (2009 does finally get above +1 Nov+.) And wasn’t 2009 arguably Modoki? If so, that makes Webb’s comment about an MEI/Modoki correlation even more questionable.

Yeah i have no idea why he was saying “MEI favors modoki”. That made no sense to me. 
 

It’s obvious this isn’t a modoki Nino but it’s also obvious the MEI is lagging this significantly compared to previous strong El Niños. 

[Itryatgolf70]

The AAM is negative so that in itself correlates to niña like atmosphere and until it becomes positive, imo we will continue to have laniña conditions and atmosphere. Admittedly, I'm no expert like alot on here, but I do know some things and me being optimistic, especially during winter, am hoping we have a few cold shots and moisture time up well also. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We do have an Aleutian ridge, -PNA, setting up for the next 10 days, Nov 5-15. After that we'll see if models are right about a transition back to +pna.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The AAM is negative so that in itself correlates to niña like atmosphere and until it becomes positive, imo we will continue to have laniña conditions and atmosphere. Admittedly, I'm no expert like alot on here, but I do know some things and me being optimistic, especially during winter, am hoping we have a few cold shots and moisture time up well also. 

As a paranoid Mid-Atlanticer, I'm hoping to get rid of the La Niño in favor of an El Niño by 12/1. I'm in no mood to roll the dice on snowfall with a "unique" look.

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The AAM is negative so that in itself correlates to niña like atmosphere and until it becomes positive, imo we will continue to have laniña conditions and atmosphere. Admittedly, I'm no expert like alot on here, but I do know some things and me being optimistic, especially during winter, am hoping we have a few cold shots and moisture time up well also. 

Indeed, the +AAM correlates partially to +ONI/-SOI/Nino. Thus, there’s a partial correlation for AAM at H5 in the E US to a canonical El Niño pattern. So, the current -AAM is more Ninalike than Ninolike.

 Does anyone have a link to daily AAM?

 

[GaWx]

On 11/3/2023 at 3:43 PM, George BM said:

Update

ASO ONI (nearest tenth): 1.5C

ASO RONI: 1.05C

The unrounded ASO ONI was +1.54, officially making this a strong Nino. Also, for the 3rd trimonth in a row, the RONI was ~0.5 cooler (near/at a record amount cooler). So, that’s a full ONI category weaker! So, odds are imho that the current low end RONI based moderate will not reach strong.

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Probably not changing from EP to CP but changing to EP/CP cross is actually being forecasted.

[GaWx]

On 11/3/2023 at 4:20 PM, GaWx said:

Today’s EPS 10mb 60N mean wind forecast backed off a good bit more from the weak SPV having been forecasted in recent days. Two to three days ago it had it dip (vs the 35 m/s normal) to 21 m/s. Yesterday that rose to 25 m/s. Today it is up to 30 m/s along with only ~7% of members suggesting a major SSW in early to mid Dec vs 10% yesterday and 18% 2-3 days ago. Also, the Nov and early Dec. SPV is significantly stronger than yesterday:

Although today’s EPS actually shows fewer members with a (impending) major SSW (5% vs 7%), the mean wind dropped back to 27 m/s vs 30 m/s yesterday. Lowest of any run so far is the 21 m/s of 3 days ago. Normal is 35

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

He probably has additional ideas, but the bolded isn’t true cause the highest MEI values occurred during the big east based El Niños of 82-83 and 97-98 

Exactly. You got Webb there, lol. 

[griteater]

Updated with October number in.  This rose a little more than I thought it would

[snowman19]

Better hope we get something from the El Niño this winter because it looks like we go right back into yet another La Niña once this event is all said and done

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Better hope we get something from the El Niño this winter because it looks like we go right back into yet another La Niña once this event is all said and done
 

So in other words, if your hopes for a winter ruining super Niño don't materialize this year, you have renewed hope that next winter will be ruined by a Niña. Something is wrong with you.

[bluewave]

While OISST hasn’t updated in a while, CRW follows the trend of not being able to sustain a SST increase due to the lower upper ocean content then normal for this El Niño. This makes getting an official ONI to average at +2.0 or greater even more unlikely than it was before. This is due to El Niños historically beginning to peak in November and December. So this is the period when steady and sustained increases are required to reach higher El Niño levels. Most years during an El Niño the November 3.4 reading is the same as December. So if the OISST pulls back to +1.7 like CRW, then the peak for this event may be very close.

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

So in other words, if your hope for a winter ruining super Niño don't materialize this year, you have renewed hope that next winter will be ruined by a Niña. Something is wrong with you.

It's good to ignore people

[Terpeast]

I’m less interested in the ONI number and when it peaks (hint- it’s not going to 2.0), but more interested in the MEI which is supposed to be updated today. This is what I based my outlook on.  

[so_whats_happening]

So far the GFS is the only one showing this strong of WWB event in a few days. Others do have it but not nearly as pronounced. Otherwise we are continuing to see the westward shift of the easterlies in the IO reaching the African coastline so we really may have already peaked in IOD territory as the areas in the Western IO start to cool. Trades overall not giving up across most ENSO regions. It looks as though we are probably near the sustaining part of this Nino as for values. Again possible to push to 2C as some point soon but would not expect much past that.

This event may finally kick the dateline warm pool east.

[snowman19]