El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something like OLR or 200mb, 850mb Zonal wind are higher correlated. 

The vp works out just fine in my experience and when it doesn't, there are reasons why.  Nothing operates in a vacuum. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Factors like the sun matter more in weak and basin wide events.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The vp works out just fine in my experience and when it doesn't, there are reasons why.  Nothing operates in a vacuum. 

I'm focused on predictive value with a lead time. Subsurface seems to work best for the PNA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm focused on predictive value with a lead time. Subsurface seems to work best for the PNA. 

Maybe specifically for the PNA...

[snowman19]

Substantial strengthening….

[Itryatgolf70]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe specifically for the PNA...

Ray, wasn't the 97-98 and 15-16 winter with a +PDO? This one is intense, pretty close with them, but with a -PDO. 97-98 was east based and 15-16 was e-central based and didn't get cold until mid January. Interesting times upcoming with this one being a -PDO

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, wasn't the 97-98 and 15-16 winter with a +PDO? This one is intense, pretty close with them, but with a -PDO. 97-98 was east based and 15-16 was e-central based and didn't get cold until mid January. Interesting times upcoming with this one being a -PDO

Problem with a +pdo is if it is too extreme, the aleutian low would be too close to the coast preventing cold air from spilling down into the conus. Our best winters have happened when the pdo is closer to neutral, iow not too extreme in either direction

[raindancewx]

Models have been particularly inept with this event so far.

-PDO El Nino blend was not too bad for October. We'll see how long that lasts.  Weaknesses in the transient heat showed up more or less where you'd expect.

Pattern competition has been showing up. That's a hallmark of the years with PDO/ENSO in opposite phases. Cold snap below is what I was referring to in my outlook from 10/10, the late month Western cold shot. 

Shows up in the analogs too - 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, and 2009 as a blend got pretty cold late October in the West. Some of the years have it bleeding East by month end, others wait until November. Showed up about two days two late to make the West colder than the East unfortunately.

Canadian has moved DJF tropical precipitation east of the last run. Now looks like a true 6-7 MJO blend, with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole influence north of Madagascar.

The 500 mb look seems to feature a lot of +WPO looks. It's hard to get the US real cold when that happens. This is actually pretty close to the look I had in my forecast. March looks ferocious again actually. I'm on board with 1/15-4/15 being pretty snowy in the West and Plains, with occasional monster storms running east as wind + rain or snow on various trajectories. It's a very wet look.

[raindancewx]

Also: Nino 3.4 may already be just about done warming. Via CPC -

2023   8   28.21   26.86    1.35
2023   9   28.32   26.72    1.60
2023  10   28.38   26.72    1.66

Ocean heat content has been flat around 1-1.1 in the 100-180W zone. It's now running behind 2018 on that metric. For the moment, it's very similar to 2009. But 2009 had a massive increase in subsurface heat in November that we're not seeing. So that match won't hold. It's enough to avoid a brutally cold November though.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Models have been particularly inept with this event so far.

-PDO El Nino blend was not too bad for October. We'll see how long that lasts.  Weaknesses in the transient heat showed up more or less where you'd expect.

Pattern competition has been showing up. That's a hallmark of the years with PDO/ENSO in opposite phases. Cold snap below is what I was referring to in my outlook from 10/10, the late month Western cold shot. 

Shows up in the analogs too - 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, and 2009 as a blend got pretty cold late October in the West. Some of the years have it bleeding East by month end, others wait until November. Showed up about two days two late to make the West colder than the East unfortunately.

Canadian has moved DJF tropical precipitation east of the last run. Now looks like a true 6-7 MJO blend, with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole influence north of Madagascar.

The 500 mb look seems to feature a lot of +WPO looks. It's hard to get the US real cold when that happens. This is actually pretty close to the look I had in my forecast. March looks ferocious again actually. I'm on board with 1/15-4/15 being pretty snowy in the West and Plains, with occasional monster storms running east as wind + rain or snow on various trajectories. It's a very wet look.

Hi Raindance. It may be winter cancel if we indeed have mjo in phases 6-7 this winter, but still early to be definitive quite yet. Imo, if the forcing stays around the dateline or 180w, I still believe we will have our opportunity at cold and snow east of the rockies this winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Ray, wasn't the 97-98 and 15-16 winter with a +PDO? This one is intense, pretty close with them, but with a -PDO. 97-98 was east based and 15-16 was e-central based and didn't get cold until mid January. Interesting times upcoming with this one being a -PDO

This one is not intense and is not close with them.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Models have been particularly inept with this event so far.

-PDO El Nino blend was not too bad for October. We'll see how long that lasts.  Weaknesses in the transient heat showed up more or less where you'd expect.

Pattern competition has been showing up. That's a hallmark of the years with PDO/ENSO in opposite phases. Cold snap below is what I was referring to in my outlook from 10/10, the late month Western cold shot. 

Shows up in the analogs too - 1951, 1972, 1982, 1991, and 2009 as a blend got pretty cold late October in the West. Some of the years have it bleeding East by month end, others wait until November. Showed up about two days two late to make the West colder than the East unfortunately.

Canadian has moved DJF tropical precipitation east of the last run. Now looks like a true 6-7 MJO blend, with the positive Indian Ocean Dipole influence north of Madagascar.

The 500 mb look seems to feature a lot of +WPO looks. It's hard to get the US real cold when that happens. This is actually pretty close to the look I had in my forecast. March looks ferocious again actually. I'm on board with 1/15-4/15 being pretty snowy in the West and Plains, with occasional monster storms running east as wind + rain or snow on various trajectories. It's a very wet look.

I'm thinking a couple -PDO/Nino Winter's in the 1960's featured a similar look as the Cansips. Of course, a different climate era so, shouldn't be as cold. The Avg to above average Snowfall wasn't confined to the West those Winters. 

[snowman19]

[griteater]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It happened every year from 1950 to 1972. The average of the 23-consecutive years was greater than this year (Sept-Oct). That was a very -PNA/-PDO time.  The VP caught on here as "something to correlate", but it's not by itself very correlated to the pattern. 

 

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Measure the thing as a stand alone index. It has little predictive value for sensible weather. 

I just started going by the thing year-by-year. I found that the first 23 years were all alike. It's a longer term pattern or cycle, but the 1950s and 1960s were very -PNA, and that's 30% of your yearly dataset. Again, be an observer, because something is blue or red during an El Nino year doesn't mean that it isn't random. Seperate the thing out year-by-year and you find La Nina's and El Nino's both associated with similar "forcings". 

VP and OLR data prior to ~1980 is known to be sketchy at best and unreliable (prior to extensive satellite coverage across the tropics by which these values are computed today).  Obviously, reanalysis data is available for these fields prior to 1980 so there is some manner in which they are estimating the values...my guess is that it is an estimate based off surface pressure and precipitation patterns captured at tropical locations such as Tahiti / Darwin and others.

At any rate, I would be curious as to the correlation values you would see if you just used data post 1980. 

 

Here are a few charts showing VP to 500mb pattern matches...

1st one is VP and 500mb for all Moderate and Stronger La Ninas vs El Ninos since 1980

2nd one is VP and 500mb for (Top 10 Most Neg / Top 10 Most Pos) PNA in January since 1980

The maps are lining up as one would expect

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

That has to be the dumbest comment I have ever heard from a pro met. The irony of him ranting about JB having an agenda....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Apparently 1997 was a modoki because it had a high MEI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, griteater said:

 

VP and OLR data prior to ~1980 is known to be sketchy at best and unreliable (prior to extensive satellite coverage across the tropics by which these values are computed today).  Obviously, reanalysis data is available for these fields prior to 1980 so there is some manner in which they are estimating the values...my guess is that it is an estimate based off surface pressure and precipitation patterns captured at tropical locations such as Tahiti / Darwin and others.

At any rate, I would be curious as to the correlation values you would see if you just used data post 1980. 

 

Here are a few charts showing VP to 500mb pattern matches...

1st one is VP and 500mb for all Moderate and Stronger La Ninas vs El Ninos since 1980

2nd one is VP and 500mb for (Top 10 Most Neg / Top 10 Most Pos) PNA in January since 1980

The maps are lining up as one would expect

 

 

Yea, that is consistent with my findings...not sure where he is coming from with this. 

[bluewave]

Just remember that Modoki or forcing near the Dateline is warm during an El Niño when it combines with a -PDO. So I don’t think it matters as much this year whether this gets defined as east based, basin-wide, or Modoki. It’s the state of the PDO or presence of a La Niña background state that will probably decide the winter more than how warm any of the Nino regions get. Any warm pooling and ridging NW of Hawaii will result in a warm outcome when combined with El Niño whether they stays strong or gets closer to borderline super. But snowfall is more variable and can be influenced by the AO if it can combine with some favorable +PNA intervals.

 

 

[Terpeast]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that Modoki or forcing near the Dateline is warm during an El Niño when it combines with a -PDO. So I don’t think it matters as much this year whether this gets defined as east based, basin-wide, or Modoki. It’s the state of the PDO or presence of a La Niña background state that will probably decide the winter more than how warm any of the Nino regions get. Any warm pooling and ridging NW of Hawaii will result in a warm outcome when combined with El Niño whether they stays strong or gets closer to borderline super. But snowfall is more variable and can be influenced by the AO if it can combine with some favorable +PNA intervals.

 

 

Again, I think you and I have a different definition of what a PDO is. When I take a broader view of it instead of just NW of Hawaii (waters off the west coast US are also important), I have a slightly different mix of analogs that leads me to think that the SW and south will be cooler and wetter than normal, and the NE will be warmer than on your map. But for MBY, your map is consistent with my prediction of a slightly AN winter temp wise (1-2+ F above). I also have great lakes warmer than normal.

So we have “some” overlap there. 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Why is “TheBetterDoge” talking about a “stubborn” -PNA? Just because 11 of the last 14 days and the last 3 days in a row have had a -PNA? Big deal. A much bigger deal is that for only the second El Niño and 4th year since 1950, 2023 had a +PNA (+0.25+) in all of June-Oct with only 2005, 2009, and 2021 being the others. Furthermore, per GEFS there are no more -PNA days in sight with neutral to positive the next 14++ days. Included in this is a pretty strong+PNA returning midmonth. So, Nov may turn out to be the 6th +PNA month in a row. The only year since 1950 with a +PNA in all of June-Nov is 2021:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Edited for correction as TheBetterDoge rather than Webb referred to a “stubborn -PNA”.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Again, I think you and I have a different definition of what a PDO is. When I take a broader view of it instead of just NW of Hawaii (waters off the west coast US are also important), I have a slightly different mix of analogs that leads me to think that the SW and south will be cooler and wetter than normal, and the NE will be warmer than on your map. But for MBY, your map is consistent with my prediction of a slightly AN winter temp wise (1-2+ F above). I also have great lakes warmer than normal.

So we have “some” overlap there. 

I like to use the area NW of a Hawaii since it’s usually the deciding factor when the PDO is technically negative but we still get a +PDO  500 mb pattern like 09-10. When the waters off of California are warmer like in 14-15, I agree with you that the East is going to be colder. The snowfall outcome in 09-10 and 14-15 were both historic. Around Boston in 14-15 and DC to Philly in 09-10. So the more +PDO 500mb patterns were outstanding for snow even if the temperatures differed a bit. Modoki forcing near the Dateline with a +PDO El Niño and cold pool NW of Hawaii have been traditionally cold and snowy in the East. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just remember that Modoki or forcing near the Dateline is warm during an El Niño when it combines with a -PDO. So I don’t think it matters as much this year whether this gets defined as east based, basin-wide, or Modoki. It’s the state of the PDO or presence of a La Niña background state that will probably decide the winter more than how warm any of the Nino regions get. Any warm pooling and ridging NW of Hawaii will result in a warm outcome when combined with El Niño whether they stays strong or gets closer to borderline super. But snowfall is more variable and can be influenced by the AO if it can combine with some favorable +PNA intervals.

 

 

Yea, no one is going super-cold. That said, sign me up for 1965, 1968 and 2004 from that composite. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Why is Webb talking about a “stubborn” -PNA? Just because 11 of the last 14 days and the last 3 days in a row have had a -PNA? Big deal. A much bigger deal is that for only the second El Niño and 4th year since 1950, 2023 had a +PNA (+0.25+) in all of June-Oct with only 2005, 2009, and 2021 being the others. Furthermore, per GEFS there are no more -PNA days in sight with neutral to positive the next 14++ days. Included in this is a pretty strong+PNA returning midmonth. So, Nov may turn out to be the 6th +PNA month in a row. The only year since 1950 with a +PNA in all of June-Nov is 2021:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Webb is completely unhinged. 

[snowman19]

Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….

[Daniel Boone]

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That has to be the dumbest comment I have ever heard from a pro met. The irony of him ranting about JB having an agenda....

As in politics anymore, the one accusing the other is the one pushing an agenda it seems. 

[raindancewx]

Looking back, the biggest difference in the El Ninos that are cold in the Southwest v. the Southeast seems to be how persistent the WPO look is.

The persistently mixed or negative WPO looks show like this -

Persistently positive are more like this -

The Canadian has the big area of enhanced sinking air by Japan and south, like the +WPO composite. So I think the second map is more likely. The WPO and EPO have some tendency to move with the PDO, but the WPO seems more tied to the warmth of Nino 4 / the Indonesian warm pool. There just aren't many -WPO years now, with thunderstorms usually enhanced in MJO phases 4-6.

The reason I like the Canadian is the precipitation patterns it shows usually match what happens in the MJO zones. So then you can test to see if the rest of it makes sense. The look of MJO 8 usually suppresses the enhanced rain running east just north of the equator in the composite - which we don't see on the modelling. 

[roardog]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Closing in on +1.9C and more warming in the coming weeks, AND the DWKW has yet to be realized….
 

 

 

 

 

Even the warm Coral Reef Watch that you like to show only has it at +1.74 as of yesterday. OISST hasn't been updating but it's most likely lower than that.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

Even the warm Coral Reef Watch that you like to show only has it at +1.74 as of yesterday. OISST hasn't been updating but it's most likely lower than that.

Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it’s obvious at this point that it’s going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll

[roardog]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it’s obvious at this point that it’s going to exceed +2.0C

The map in his tweet says Coral Reef Watch in the bottom right corner. lol

[csnavywx]

Am I the only one that read that Webb tweet completely differently?